FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

If you like cold and dry weather tonights run is good. If you are after a snowy easterly, they are not so good. If it is not going to snow, i'll take cold and dry anytime over south westerlies

Gonzo

a fairly poor run by tonight's GFS, another downgrade to add to today's downgrades. We may get 1 to 2 day cold spell next weekend which looks mostly dry and then milder after that. We need major upgrades by the morning.

nacho libre

GFS dangling another carrot at the very end

Little snowy old me

All going pear shaped.

Gonzo

hopefully we will be back in a better position by this time tomorrow. For those who love cold and snow together we need this to happen starting from next weekend rather than getting delayed again and again till we're at the end of February or early March. If we could get something similar to what we were looking at this morning and even the 12z next week we would be in business and the timeframe much better for genuine cold and lack of thawing compared to the very end of the month.

I think we will get a decent and unstable flow at some point but would rather it sooner rather than later.

Kunta Kinte

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully we will be back in a better position by this time tomorrow. For those who love cold and snow together we need this to happen starting from next weekend rather than getting delayed again and again till we're at the end of February or early March. If we could get something similar to what we were looking at this morning and even the 12z next week we would be in business and the timeframe much better for genuine cold and lack of thawing compared to the very end of the month.

I think we will get a decent and unstable flow at some point but would rather it sooner rather than later.

Only if it happens by the end of Feb. I personally would have no wish for cold wintry weather any time after that.

NMB

Little snowy old me wrote: »

All going pear shaped.

Seems that way very fraxicus

nacho libre

Control is very good.

I think we will get there eventually, but we maybe left thinking of what might have been if it's towards the latter part of February.

NMB

Extremely interesting runs in the last 48 hours. If you’ve no bias towards any outcome the model watching has been incredible. The forecasting ability of ones self has been tested!! I prefer cold pure unadulterated cold and the signal is there.

So what if a few models don’t reflect cold outcomes every time. If they already gave the sign and there’s scientific reasons to factor such as nao, sunspots,Nina, ssw- lets just wait for the next cross model agreement.

Gonzo

NMB wrote: »

Extremely interesting runs in the last 48 hours. If you’ve no bias towards any outcome the model watching has been incredible. The forecasting ability of ones self has been tested!! I prefer cold pure unadulterated cold and the signal is there.

So what if a few models don’t reflect cold outcomes every time. If they already gave the sign and there’s scientific reasons to factor such as nao, sunspots,Nina, ssw- lets just wait for the next cross model agreement.

We've seen many times in the past 3 weeks for models to flip from one run to another, not just the operational but all the sets at the same time (such as today's ECM), and for it to get back to business a few days later.

I am still hopefully we can pull it off by this time next week. We've had fantasy land this morning and close to a bust only 12 hours later which doesn't make alot of sense. I have a feeling we will climb back up onto the rollercoaster at some stage between tomorrow and Monday but it may not be quite as wonderfully golden as what we woke up to this morning.

Gonzo

The pub run ensemble has fully completed and comparing it to the 12z. While the operational has had notable downgrades since the 6z, the overall trend is still exactly the same. If anything there are slightly more colder runs compared to the 12z, but a bit less compared to the 6z. From February 8th there is alot of scatter. I've a funny feeling we may lose a few more of those mild outliers to cold by tomorrow, lets see what happens.

We still have quite a few members going for -10 to -15 uppers so the freezer signal is not going away.

NMB

Agreed.

And There’s white gold in that scatter

Larbre34

I know this is the FI thread, but I learned many years ago on here, when it comes to winter air masses, never pay the slightest heed to anything further out than +72.

Yes its battleground, yes the trend is our friend, but don't wreck your head with model consensus wars and pub run outliers etc. If you're a day or two ahead of met office warnings its plenty of a roller-coaster and plenty of time to get prepared at home.

TheMilkyPirate

GEM is a beauty this morning. Takes a little longer to get the cold uppers in but high doesn't fall over us like yesterday. A big improvement

.



UKMO looks ok at +144 nothing like the ECM thankfully



GFS mean at +168



Hopefully the ECM was just on the wine yesterday and will come around on the 00z.

Humberto Salazar

ECM once again, not having any of supposed coldness in FI. If anything, a nice southerly breeze by day 9. Will bring the daffodils on nicely. Certainly we need a drier spell, after the coming rain this week.

TheMilkyPirate

Well it's better than the 12z. If that's saying much

Models certainly have one piece of consistency since the new year,they can't let the cold either West or southwest whilst the atlantics awake and pressure is high around iberia
Emma came from West of Iberia in 2018 so that certainly wasn't a problem back then and is the difference
Its a displacement of the azores high really and must be in my opinion caused by something in the unusual atmospherics we find ourselves in this winter
The question is what's going to disrupt that situation and will it happen in time for events in northern latitudes to still be in play
One other things for sure,the models aren't able to answer this at the moment
But that's not actually making forecasting
in the near term too difficult, it's just not making the impossible possible yet
We may wait and see

bazlers

AuntySnow wrote: »

Models certainly have one piece of consistency since the new year,they can't let the cold either West or southwest whilst the atlantics awake and pressure is high around iberia
Emma came from West of Iberia in 2018 so that certainly wasn't a problem back then and is the difference
Its a displacement of the adores high really and must be in my opinion caused by something in the unusual atmospherics we find ourselves in this winter
The question is what's going to disrupt that situation and will it happen in time for events in northern latitudes to still be in play
One other things for sure,the models aren't able to answer this at the moment
But that's not actually making forecasting
in the near term too difficult, it's just not making the impossible possible yet
We may wait and see

Yea i agree Auntysnow. If only we had a key to unlock the azores gate or a pin to burst its bubble then the bitter cold would come streaming in. Having said that maybe the modwls themselves will come up with that solution and better still in the reliable time frame.
The rollercoasters this year are like merry go rounds. I buying one more ticket and this it then for this winter ; )

TheMilkyPirate

GEM coming back on board is significant for me. It was the first to run with the good charts then dropped them before ECM and then EC followed suit. GEM back on board this morning and I feel we will see a correction from the 00z ECM also. Today's UKMO will tell a lot

I'm an eternal optimist though.

Slashermcguirk

February will deliver good snow, I can feel it. We had a bit of snow in December, more here in January particularly the ninja snow last weekend and February its gonna be the real deal. You heard it here first

Rebelbrowser

Well worth reading MTs detailed analysis this morning inc re potential correlation with US weather forecasts at the mo

gerrybhoy

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Well worth reading MTs detailed analysis this morning inc re potential correlation with US weather forecasts at the mo

I haven't a clue about the weather,only love the snow and sun His piece this morning was very informative and detailed

Scubadevils

Yes very interesting to read MTs thoughts this morning - incredible how close we are to something potentially historical. I hate when we are on the fringes of potential and the cold boundary sits out to our East in England and we end up in miserable cool, wet and windy weather (like right now!). I remember winters as a kid watching the news and seeing buckets of snow in parts of the UK and nothing in Ireland, with only weather forecasts to go by then, I often went to bed literally praying I'd wake to a blanket of snow... 99% of the time, end up disappointed - amazing though the few jackpots - 1982, 1986 (I think) and a few others.

Like others and with no scientific basis (I bloody should have a better understanding of the models after 16 years following threads!), I have a gut feeling we'll still get a proper cold blast! Onwards with the rollercoaster...

Kermit.de.frog

GEM the pick this morning. Stunning for coldies.

We are on knife edge.

Feast or famine.

TheMilkyPirate

6z is a peach of a run. High retrogressing to Greenland?

Kermit.de.frog

I'd bank latest GFS. Nigh on gale force northeasterly winds and sub -12 850 hpa temps make kermit happy

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd bank latest GFS. Nigh on gale force northeasterly winds and sub -12 850 hpa temps make kermit happy

Gales aren't the best for coasties, the snow usually ends up in Kildare then. Id prefer a moderate wind with slow moving streamers. Please and thank you.

typhoony

ECM AND UKMO not buying into
It, too much disagreement, alsogfs has backed off significantly since yesterday mornings runs

nacho libre

bazlers wrote: »

Yea i agree Auntysnow. If only we had a key to unlock the azores gate or a pin to burst its bubble then the bitter cold would come streaming in. Having said that maybe the modwls themselves will come up with that solution and better still in the reliable time frame.
The rollercoasters this year are like merry go rounds. I buying one more ticket and this it then for this winter ; )

The MJO going to phase seven might be the key, this is more favourable to high latitude blocking.

If this really is a key player, the ECM output in the next few days may start to depict heights moving to the north of us.

And milkypirate makes a good point about the GEM, it has led the way in the run up to this potential cold spell. It is verifying fairly well up to day five, so hopefully it sticks to this morning run and the ECM moves to it.

highdef

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

6z is a peach of a run. High retrogressing to Greenland?

Quite the opposite