FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

fantastic GEM this morning, big improvement on yesterday.
GFS looks good for next weekend, but that's about it.
another fairly rubbish ECM and a not so great UKMO.

compared to last night we're doing a bit better thanks to the GEM back on board. Hopefully upgrades later on for GFS, UKMO and especially the ECM.

TheMilkyPirate

highdef wrote: »

Quite the opposite

Yep looked like it for a frame or two to my completely amateur eyes

Kermit.de.frog

Not bad, not bad. Plenty to work with.

Humberto Salazar

Can't see the excitement of this. Saturated ground and mid single digit temps next week. Miserable. Next weekend, you may as well as ask Mystic Meg what it will do. The models are not in agreement. We've seen this cold air from the East dragged toward us a couple of times this winter and it never made it. In general, patterns repeat themselves and I suggest it will get pushed south and west into continental Europe as would be expected. I wouldn't mind some drier sunnier air, cold or mild at this stage.

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Can't see the excitement of this. .

I suppose it depends on your level of expectation. If you are just happy to see snowfall and the possibility of some accumulations, then within this setup there are chances of that happening - as we see starting tomorrow. If you are after ice days with several days of laying snow then you may well end up unhappy.

sicknotexi

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Can't see the excitement of this. Saturated ground and mid single digit temps next week. Miserable. Next weekend, you may as well as ask Mystic Meg what it will do. The models are not in agreement. We've seen this cold air from the East dragged toward us a couple of times this winter and it never made it. In general, patterns repeat themselves and I suggest it will get pushed south and west into continental Europe as would be expected. I wouldn't mind some drier sunnier air, cold or mild at this stage.

You keep saying this. We get it.

TheMilkyPirate

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Can't see the excitement of this. Saturated ground and mid single digit temps next week. Miserable. Next weekend, you may as well as ask Mystic Meg what it will do. The models are not in agreement. We've seen this cold air from the East dragged toward us a couple of times this winter and it never made it. In general, patterns repeat themselves and I suggest it will get pushed south and west into continental Europe as would be expected. I wouldn't mind some drier sunnier air, cold or mild at this stage.

You can't see why people would be interested in a potential easterly on a weather enthusiasts forum. Odd

Calibos

nacho libre wrote: »

I suppose it depends on your level of expectation. If you are just happy to see snowfall and the possibility of some accumulations, then within this setup there are chances of that happening - as we see starting tomorrow. If you are after ice days with several days of laying snow then you may well end up unhappy.

Exactly. I'd be happy with two and half days of 5 inches or so on the ground after a short burst of Irish Sea Streamers than several weeks of icy weather with F all precipitation. ie. I'm not chasing a month long cold/ice spell like 2010 or even a week long event like '82, '87 or '18. Gimme just a couple of days of more than a dusting or a piddling 1-2 inches and I'd be happy and mark Winter 20/21 as decent on my calendar.

So for me, I'm trying to interpret the posts and mood changes of the regular experts here to see are they disappointed in the charts because all chance of snow is gone on the latest runs or if they are simply throwing toys out of the pram because what was looking like another 2010 is turning into a short lived event but still a decent chance of a decent amount of snow.

Slashermcguirk

Bit of positivity wouldn’t go astray, glass half empty or what. Plenty of potential there, this winter already far better than the last couple with most counties already seeing snow a few times and plenty of potential for February.

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Can't see the excitement of this. Saturated ground and mid single digit temps next week. Miserable. Next weekend, you may as well as ask Mystic Meg what it will do. The models are not in agreement. We've seen this cold air from the East dragged toward us a couple of times this winter and it never made it. In general, patterns repeat themselves and I suggest it will get pushed south and west into continental Europe as would be expected. I wouldn't mind some drier sunnier air, cold or mild at this stage.

lucernarian

Why are people's individual preferences for weather the topic of discussion in the FI thread? nothing wrong with some folks wanting one thing while others want another.

While there's some high pressure near Iberia, I'd think this wouls reduce the risk of cold air diving into France instead of here.

GEM is a model I check more and more these days, it is picking up on trends ahead of some others, even if it's changing a lot in FI (it's not unusual for FI to change by definition)

Wine Goddess

Calibos wrote: »

Exactly. I'd be happy with two and half days of 5 inches or so on the ground after a short burst of Irish Sea Streamers than several weeks of icy weather with F all precipitation. ie. I'm not chasing a month long cold/ice spell like 2010 or even a week long event like '82, '87 or '18. Gimme just a couple of days of more than a dusting or a piddling 1-2 inches and I'd be happy and mark Winter 20/21 as decent on my calendar.

So for me, I'm trying to interpret the posts and mood changes of the regular experts here to see are they disappointed in the charts because all chance of snow is gone on the latest runs or if they are simply throwing toys out of the pram because what was looking like another 2010 is turning into a short lived event but still a decent chance of a decent amount of snow.

Ditto. Anything, ANYTHING is better than this deluge or mild rainy weather.
I have really enjoyed the cold crisp weather with blue skies (great for walks as that's all we can do anyway) and as Sryanbruen pointed out recently January has had above average sunshine 🌞.
Sunshine and blue skies in January is better than most of our summers!!!!
So any whisper of a dusting or even a few centimetres of white gold will go a long way to lifting my spirits.

Sorry I see this is the technical thread sorry for posting here.

Reversal

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Ditto. Anything, ANYTHING is better than this deluge or mild rainy weather.
I have really enjoyed the cold crisp weather with blue skies (great for walks as that's all we can do anyway) and as Sryanbruen pointed out recently January has had above average sunshine 🌞.
Sunshine and blue skies in January is better than most of our summers!!!!
So any whisper of a dusting or even a few centimetres of white gold will go a long way to lifting my spirits.

Sorry I see this is the technical thread sorry for posting here.

Yeah it's already been a better winter than most. If next weekend brings two days of non marginal Irish sea streamers with moderate accumulations, let it lie on the ground for a day and that will do for this year.

esposito

I have to be honest there are some days I am very negative after model watching and other days I am more positive. But as posters have been saying, this winter has been a lot better than the last two winters with plenty of frost at least and one (almost) ice day back on Dec 6th. A couple of days proper snowfall from Irish Sea streamers before March and I’ll be happy with what this winter has brought.

Kermit.de.frog

ICON is first out and a significant improvement from the 0z run. Let's see if it's a trend.

Arduach

Hopefully not, but I'm getting a little February 2012 deja vu.

Hopefully this evening's runs will change that. In 2012 we were only 48-72 hrs away.

Kermit.de.frog

Not a bad UKMO, an improvement from this morning. Still a bit to go.



And GFS ok as well @ day 5

Artane2002

the GFS is quite good, now hopefully the ECM cops onto itself :pac:

Edit: I'll change the quite good to very good now, see the charts below, doesn't need a huge tweak for me to upgrade it to great :P

by the way, although this easterly is not a day 10 affair, the GFS has actually been performing better than the ECM at day 10 according to the verification stats, adding weight to the general view that the ECM hasn't been great this season. this season has obviously been difficult but the ECM in particular hasn't been great considering that it is supposed to be the best. I wonder if the upgrade it got last year has a part to play?

TheMilkyPirate

12Zs great so far. Please ECM

Kermit.de.frog

GEM

Oneiric 3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEZCDfA_PqM

Artane2002

the GEM is excellent right to the end. hopefully we get the ECM on board and no more dramas.. the only drama I want is us ridiculing the ECM if the GEM is right :P

sicknotexi

Come on ECM you fecking straggler.

That Gem run could be run of the winter. Sneachta galore.

lolie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GEM

[eles/gem/runs/2021013012/gemeu-0-168.png?12[/img]

Careful or you wont be around to see it :eek:

pad199207

That GEM is a GEM

Longing

lolie wrote: »

Careful or you wont be around to see it :eek:

I think the pic represents snow.;)

ninebeanrows

GEM would bring crushing snow, especially to eastern areas

Tyrone212

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

GEM would bring crushing snow, especially to eastern areas

+186
+210

Artane2002

the ECM has a northerly instead of an easterly

ninebeanrows

EC may work out in long run but it is frustrating how it just stalls that low over Ireland. If it could be shunted south in successive runs we will be on to a winner. Not big differences in the grand synoptic but huge differences for us here in Ireland.

TheMilkyPirate

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

EC may work out in long run but it is frustrating how it just stalls that low over Ireland. If it could be shunted south in successive runs we will be on to a winner. Not big differences in the grand synoptic but huge differences for us here in Ireland.

Plenty more changes to come I feel