FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Artane2002

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

EC may work out in long run but it is frustrating how it just stalls that low over Ireland. If it could be shunted south in successive runs we will be on to a winner. Not big differences in the grand synoptic but huge differences for us here in Ireland.

it's hard to take it seriously with its wild run to run swings. on the other hand, could the ECM really be that wrong? the ECM and the other models will probably meet in the middle in my opinion, I can't see the ECM being so seriously wrong.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM could come good at +240

Or not but still better than this morning imo

Neddyusa

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not a bad UKMO, an improvement from this morning. Still a bit to go.



And GFS ok as well @ day 5

What about that big red AH?
I'm inclined to think you can forget about cold or snow while that's present on charts.
But being FI there's s still time for it to relocate...

pad199207

Small steps from the ECM this evening

Gonzo

we are looking in a better place than we were this time yesterday. ECM is still not going for it however.

The ECM hopefully will finally get there tomorrow or Monday at the latest. Hopefully the GFS pub run later will continue with an upgrade, last thing we need right now is any more downgrades from any model but I get the feeling we have a bit to go on this rollercoaster.

nacho libre

I don't understand how a flabby low like this just doesn't sink se quickly instead it goes north east and hangs around like a bad smell. It's a very confusing chart. I would like to think it will change on future runs.

Gonzo

I see someone is trying to preorder some Valentines Day snow.





Will wishes come through or will our hearts be broken!

derekon

I would imagine hearts will be broken..............again :rolleyes:

D

Arduach

Gonzo wrote: »

I see someone is trying to preorder some Valentines Day snow.





Will wishes come through or will our hearts be broken!

That would be a 'meaningful' Valentine's Day

Slashermcguirk

I think it’s shaping up well for February, rollercoaster no doubt but it still looks quite good even a week out

nacho libre

The ECM at day 10 looks like it will get there in the end, but more delays is time for something else to go wrong. I really hope the GEM is leading the pack here.

I feel by Monday at the latest, we will have our answer. Either the ECM will have egg on its face or proved that it is the lead model again as the other models move towards it.
The ECM as it is might lead to some marginal events, but that is just a continuation of what we have had so far

Rebelbrowser

RTEs farming/ extended forecast tomorrow will be interesting. Given there could be deep cold within 5 days they will have to at least mention the possibility I assume?

pauldry

Gerry will prob say it and go "We can expect some very cold weather to set in next weekend and with the cold temperatures we can expect any precipitation to be wintry. We can expect this to be codswallop by the weekend though and we can expect it to be pushed out to the following weekend"

Kermit.de.frog

Silence! It's pub run time

Arduach

GFS looks alright to me..why the quietness

nacho libre

Arduach wrote: »

GFS looks alright to me..why the quietness

Because its a brief easterly, before it becomes dry

Gonzo

it's a bit of a disaster tbh. 24 to 36 hours of maybe a few snow showers if even that.

Nqp15hhu

Arduach wrote: »

GFS looks alright to me..why the quietness

Because it’s introduced mild air for next week that was not forecast initially.

It’s the same as last week. A cool weekend, mild mid week followed by a cool weekend.

I would personally prefer a consistent pattern of cool weather.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

it's a bit of a disaster tbh. 24 to 36 hours of maybe a few snow showers if even that.

You might get a second bite of the cherry. It will be interesting to see where the high goes, but the way this winter has gone it will probably sink southwards

Arduach

That's all deeper FI.

The brief Easterly might become something more. It's closer FI.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS brings in mild in FI. Easterly is there for next week in my amateur eyes. Could have been a lot worse

Arduach

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Because it’s introduced mild air for next week that was not forecast initially.

It’s the same as last week. A cool weekend, mild mid week followed by a cool weekend.

I would personally prefer a consistent pattern of cool weather.

No use worrying about Wk2. That could have changed in the morning.

Kermit.de.frog

Parallel run is really good and has a northeasterly established as early as day 4.



There is a lot to iron out yet...:cool:

Rougies

Arduach wrote: »

GFS looks alright to me..why the quietness

We went from the 12z GFS thrilling descent into the wild double loop with corkscrew of the GEM followed by the sobering lift hill of the ECM. We're now in a flat slow turning section of the rollercoaster and we don't know what lies ahead.

mickger844posts

Looking across all the models some sort of cold solution is forecast for next weekend so without looking at individual runs the general cold theme prevails. The trend is your friend.

nacho libre

The para is an excellent run. Pity it's not for 2 days time.

Kermit.de.frog

Rougies wrote: »

We went from the 12z GFS thrilling descent into the wild double loop with corkscrew of the GEM followed by the sobering lift hill of the ECM. We're now in a flat slow turning section of the rollercoaster and we don't know what lies ahead.

:pac:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESzxGYDkwG8

Harry Palmr

Lads - it's over. Winter is a busted flush.























/buys snow plough

Kermit.de.frog

Tomorrow's models summed up in a gif

Mount Vesuvius

Snowfest GEM evolution earlier so just saving it to look back on to see if any of it comes to fruit.