FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Danno

Gonzo wrote: »

I see someone is trying to preorder some Valentines Day snow white stuff.
Will wishes come through or will our hearts be broken!

FYP

Mount Vesuvius

The 144 GEM perts actually don't look too bad. Mean is good too.

Kermit.de.frog

nacho libre

Give it some love. This run will verify:pac:

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO has an easterly in at 96 hours

Kermit.de.frog

GFS following the trend all be it slightly later

Kermit.de.frog

Looking at the control run a definite trend here...



I would be amazed if the ECM was not significantly different this morning.

nacho libre

The UKMO is unlikely to be wrong at this timeframe. It seems all roads lead to at least a brief cold spell, just some take the longer route to get there. If the ECM refuses to budge then it may pull off one of its biggest coups against the other models in recent times, but i suspect it will. Its handling of that low at day 5 on the previous run just does not seem right.

Tyrone212

Ecm says no. Euro high towards end of run.

Humberto Salazar

I've kept watch of the ECM. Consistently not having easterly in FI. Builds the dreaded Euro high, which means very mild Southwest winds. I won't say winter is over, but the well built lady is clearing her throat...

bazlers

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

I've kept watch of the ECM. Consistently not having easterly in FI. Builds the dreaded Euro high, which means very mild Southwest winds. I won't say winter is over, but the well built lady is clearing her throat...

I guess there is still time for upgrades but hoping at present it could be a kitten from the east.

Humberto Salazar

bazlers wrote: »

I guess there is still time for upgrades but hoping at present it could be a kitten from the east.

Things can change, it's the weather. GFS has been bullish about some firm of Easterly in FI. ECM has not. I'm only going by this winters pattern which has suggested easterlies previously but they have failed to deliver. Here we have another attempt. Unless the models converge one way or the other I'm going to err on the side of caution. We'll know who was right or wrong over the next few days. Buckle up.

Fi has been promising extremes since December
Tomorrow is February
The best available reality has been marginal muck and an awful awful lot of rain
That should tell us something

Kermit.de.frog

ECM is moving the right direction. Patience.

Neddyusa

AuntySnow wrote: »

Fi has been promising extremes since December
Tomorrow is February
The best available reality has been marginal muck and an awful awful lot of rain
That should tell us something

Exactly - and until that Azores High is gone from the 120hrs charts we'll just be getting more of the same

Kermit.de.frog

Patience

pad199207

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Patience

It’s February tomorrow :rolleyes:

Slashermcguirk

February is statistically the coldest month of the year, what's the issue? Its ideal for snow

pad199207 wrote: »

It’s February tomorrow :rolleyes:

Mount Vesuvius

ECM was an outlier again. End of run went crazy

pad199207

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

February is statistically the coldest month of the year, what's the issue? Its ideal for snow

I know and fingers crossed we get what we want in February. Hopefully our patience will pay off

Reversal

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

ECM was an outlier again. End of run went crazy

0z GFS Op was an outlier too. Mean T850hpa getting to -9 over Dublin, staying sub -5 for 6-7 days.

GEM and UKMO ops very good. Wait and see I suppose.

nacho libre

The ECM op is not that well supported by its own members, but after three consistent runs its very possible its handling of the low at day 5 is correct.
If the ECM is to have egg on its face we need to see the UKMO long range text not change this afternoon to reflect the ECM op run. If it does then its curtains for this cold spell. If it does not change, then i'd be very surprised if the ECM is right.

Rebelbrowser

I know I've said this already, but with such inconsistencies right now, and Met.ie's ultimate preference for the ECM, God love whoever is doing the RTE forecast shortly ("...by next weekend and into the early days of the following week expect mild south-westerly winds and dry weather with high pressure building, though there might be a touch of strong easterly winds bringing the occasional 15 degree drop in temperature with associated blizzards....")

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

The ECM op is not that well supported by its own members, but after three consistent runs its very possible its handling of the low at day 5 is correct.
If the ECM is to have egg on its face we need to see the UKMO long range text not change this afternoon to reflect the ECM op run. If it does then its curtains for this cold spell. If it does not change, then i'd be very surprised if the ECM is right.

Another weekend, another headache.

ninebeanrows

This low over Britain is so stubborn but it would not take much for it to drift further south and bring an easterly in relatively quickly, conversely it could go the other way but one to watch -

ninebeanrows

Lots of spread in the ECMWF ensembles this morning but what's clear is that the operational run was very at the top of the ensemble spread from day 8-10

Interestingly a good cluster of perhaps 30% of members bring 850hPa temps below to around -10 from day 8-10

Humberto Salazar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Patience

Is in short supply here...

Mount Vesuvius

GFS and GEM continue in the same vein while ECM goes off on one.

Artane2002

the GFS ensembles seem to be getting better with each run but the ECM won't budge. both the UKMO and ECM are supposed to be great models so clearly one of them has gone horribly wrong, my money is on the UKMO being wrong knowing our luck though logic would state the ECM is the wrong one.

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

the GFS ensembles seem to be getting better with each run but the ECM won't budge. both the UKMO and ECM are supposed to be great models so clearly one of them has gone horribly wrong, my money is on the UKMO being wrong knowing our luck though logic would state the ECM is the wrong one.

Going on past standoffs between the two, the likely resolution is they meet halfway, which probably means deep cold is less likely to make it here.