FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mount Vesuvius

Just want to throw up some of the 0z mean charts at 144 hrs
Hope the UKMO keeps flat
ECM


UKMO


ICON

sicknotexi

Happy with this mornings UKMO. If that had shown similar to ECM it was game over. Plenty to play for and we should know soon how it will pan out.

Mount Vesuvius

sicknotexi wrote: »

Happy with this mornings UKMO. If that had shown similar to ECM it was game over. Plenty to play for and we should know soon how it will pan out.

Certainly one to watch but needs to stay flat over Europe, those heights need to go away as shown in the other models

TheMilkyPirate

So much volatility in the models. If all 12Zs came and showed an easterly at day 6 today it could well be gone by the 18Zs and then back again tomorrow. They are having a hard time figuring out where that low goes

Gonzo

models still mostly going for a 3 day cold spell next weekend. Hopefully we will get an upgrade to it's duration and more consistency in the models from tomorrow into Tuesday.

The GFS genearlly looks very cold for the most part right up to the end of February with plenty of snow potential. The cold runs of -10 and colder are gaining support too.

Meteorite58

Last couple of runs from the ECM certainly not instilling any faith in getting proper colder weather soon. Quite a wet outlook.

UKMO better all right. GFS currently cold from next weekend and the set up for snowy conditions from the E thereafter.

Mount Vesuvius

The ECM after 168 hrs is pants anyway so I'm expecting that to change somewhat on the 12z .

Gonzo

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

The ECM after 168 hrs is pants anyway so I'm expecting that to change somewhat on the 12z .

While the ECM is still terrible, it has to be taken into account as this entire cold spell is still on a knife edge for us and is far from locked in yet. We could still find ourselves losing out while the UK is plunged into the freezer 2012 style. We should be more certain what way this is going to go by Wednesday. I was hoping for Monday at the latest but I think we need another few days on this one.

Mount Vesuvius

Gonzo wrote: »

While the ECM is still terrible, it has to be taken into account as this entire cold spell is still on a knife edge for us and is far from locked in yet. We could still find ourselves losing out while the UK is plunged into the freezer 2012 style. We should be more certain what way this is going to go by Wednesday.

Well it has been an outlier for several runs now and is clearly not coping well at the moment. Not discounting it in it's entirety. Also the cold has never been locked in so only sensational media will say this

Gonzo

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Well it has been an outlier for several runs now and is clearly not coping well at the moment. Not discounting it in it's entirety. Also the cold has never been locked in so only sensational media will say this

It most likely will still be cold from next week but am concerned we could end up in a dryer but still cold regime. Models for the most part aside from the ECM look decent. Most are showing a 2 to 3 day spell of cold with a decent level of instability. Plenty of changes to come over the next few days and hopefully for the better all around. I get the feeling too that we will have more than one cold spell to contend with in February.

Mount Vesuvius

Gonzo wrote: »

It most likely will still be cold from next week but am concerned we could end up in a dryer but still cold regime. Models for the most part aside from the ECM look decent. Most are showing a 2 to 3 day spell of cold with a decent level of instability. Plenty of changes to come over the next few days and hopefully for the better all around. I get the feeling too that we will have more than one cold spell to contend with in February.

I'd be very content with a 3 day cold spell with snow showers, of course most here would love a beast from the east but unfortunately that is like hen's teeth and the stars really do have to align for that to happen. Let's just hope we get something better than the sloppy mess of late.

Gonzo

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

I'd be very content with a 3 day cold spell with snow showers, of course most here would love a beast from the east but unfortunately that is like hen's teeth and the stars really do have to align for that to happen. Let's just hope we get something better than the sloppy mess of late.

I'm really fed up of the marginal sloppy mess we've had, this weekend in particular is absolutely awful, one of the wettest weekends I've experienced over the past year.

I'd be happy with a 3 day easterly as long as it's unstable and I feel we are not looking at a week long event either. We will probably go back to a dryer and maybe milder solution after a few days and then potentially another cold spell for a few days. The CFS for what it's worth has been suggesting several cold spells over the next 6 weeks but none of them lasting more than 3 or 4 days. I'd be very happy if something like that worked out.

John.Icy

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

This low over Britain is so stubborn but it would not take much for it to drift further south and bring an easterly in relatively quickly, conversely it could go the other way but one to watch -

The GFS OP is continually one of the slowest members of the full GEFS family at pulling it south. Scope there for it to pull south quicker and let cold come quicker.

Could be a double edged sword though - some of the runs with a more stubborn low over us has heights building further north to us, while members that clear it to the south quick have HP quite close to our North which is not ideal.

I'd probably take the delay and have a more unstable flow ala the 6z OP which becomes a snowfest from ~ Day 7-10.

mcburns07

I’d quite happily take dry weather in whatever form it comes in right now. The dry spell end of Dec start Jan is long forgotten after the few weeks we’ve had.

typhoony

My opinion hasn't changed the last few days, as some people have said it's a sloppy mess at the moment, yes we could get a brief colder spell next weekend but all models are pointing towards a shift back to milder weather, we've been lucky not to get many severe storms this winter, it does look like the NE US will start to get a series of NorEasters over the next 2 weeks which could in turn see the Atlantic generate storms our way in 12 to 20 days time

nacho libre

It's quite possible the ensembles could suddenly flip to support the ECM OP. It's a very unusual situation, usually after 3 op runs like this the ensembles would change to broadly reflect the op run. The odds are we end up with models arriving at something in between the ECM, GFS and UKMO. If we look closely we can already see the GFS is not as swift to eject the low, that's a slight move already. I think by Monday night we will know how this is going to pan out

A brief cool spell, followed by a settled period, before possibly a colder turn after mid month would be my guess.

Artane2002

nacho libre wrote: »

It's quite possible the ensembles could suddenly flip to support the ECM OP. It's a very unusual situation, usually after 3 op runs like this the ensembles would change to broadly reflect the op run. The odds are we end up with models arriving at something in between the ECM, GFS and UKMO. If we look closely we can already see the GFS is not as swift to get eject the low, that's a slight move already. I think by Monday night we will know how this is going to pan out

A brief cool spell, followed by a settled period, before possibly a colder turn after mid month would be my guess.

if the GFS could be seen as a halfway house then that's pretty good, it has an unstable airflow, which has been quite lacking in recent runs. the uppers could be better but I imagine they'd suffice. it's crazy to think that tomorrow we'll be moving this discussion to the other charts thread since we don't have an idea about what will happen!

Gaoth Laidir

Something that's never quite sat with me is the description of those cold easterlies as "Siberian". The closest point of actual Siberia (politically) to Ireland is 3650 km, which is ~200 km further away than the furthest point of northwestern Greenland. Rather than being to our east it's really to our northeast as the crow flies, so only an extensive high centred near Svalbard or in the Greenland Sea directing a long northeasterly towards us can bring a true Siberian airmass.

Now obviously a Siberian airmass can first take a detour towards eastern Europe before heading this way, but by that stage it can have gone through some modification. The December 2010 northeasterly was a true Siberian, but they are pretty rare overall.

Rebelbrowser

Thanks GL. Informative as always. More generally what is your thinking on the weather pattern in, say, 8 days time?

bazlers

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Something that's never quite sat with me is the description of those cold easterlies as "Siberian". The closest point of actual Siberia (politically) to Ireland is 3650 km, which is ~200 km further away than the furthest point of northwestern Greenland. Rather than being to our east it's really to our northeast as the crow flies, so only an extensive high centred near Svalbard or in the Greenland Sea directing a long northeasterly towards us can bring a true Siberian airmass.

Now obviously a Siberian airmass can first take a detour towards eastern Europe before heading this way, but by that stage it can have gone through some modification. The December 2010 northeasterly was a true Siberian, but they are pretty rare overall.

Well only speking for myself (i pesumed most were the same) the hope was for the scndi high to link with the russian/siberian high to draw in those truely cold temps. Id be happy with a snow flurry ot two now. Still a chance i guess but i wouldnt be putting big money on deep cold...its still all very interesting at the same time but would be nice to get a week or so of bitter cold after all the chat of so called back back ground signals. Heres hoping.

Dickie10

I would gladly take cold dry spell, forget the snow

Artane2002

big UKMO coming up soon! the ICON is better than it was this morning but it is only the ICON after all!

TheMilkyPirate

Yes ICON better at 12z. Has us in an easterly from next Friday lasting a few days



MET office extended remains unchanged also

Nqp15hhu

Artane2002 wrote: »

big UKMO coming up soon! the ICON is better than it was this morning but it is only the ICON after all!

You say this, but ICON has been very accurate for here. Some models predicted snow here, we had zilch even at elevation, the ground is bone dry! ICON predicted a front that would stall and head south which is what happened.

TheMilkyPirate

UKMO is decent, -8 850s from Friday if I'm reading it right.

Artane2002

lovely GFS. I'm not sure what to make of the UKMO to be honest, definitely not as good as this morning but probably not a disaster.

Gonzo

my excitement is building watching that GFS 12z roll out.

Artane2002

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

You say this, but ICON has been very accurate for here. Some models predicted snow here, we had zilch even at elevation, the ground is bone dry! ICON predicted a front that would stall and head south which is what happened.

I'm not very familiar with the ICON but there seems to be a number of different versions of it, I think the ICON-EU 7km might be the one you're referring to? the global version isn't really a great model in my opinion anyway.

also, the UKMO has uppers of generally -6c but with some -8c in the middle bit of the island for a while.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS is very good -10 850s by Sunday in strong easterly winds

Oneiric 3

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

You say this, but ICON has been very accurate for here. Some models predicted snow here, we had zilch even at elevation, the ground is bone dry! ICON predicted a front that would stall and head south which is what happened.

I read before, and not sure if true or not, that the ICON is closely related to the ECMWF, in that it uses its data. I have also heard it said that if earlier runs of the ICON shows a change in the expected overall pattern, that that is a good indicator that the following ECMWF runs will show something similar. Again, how true that is I don't know.