FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Slashermcguirk

Come on the February snow train! Much colder continent to our north east and east now. Nordic capitals all averaging around -10 and Moscow starts pushing down towards -15 as the week goes on

JanuarySnowstor

Potential for a proper cold spell now building for next weekend. Certainly both the ukmo and gfs would deliver something potent!!
I'm sure most would agree though that the route is fraught with danger at almost every turn. I just don't trust these flimsy high's much rather a very strong Scandi or Greeny high.
Right now though it's looking very very good!

Villain

The GFS really is persisting:

Artane2002

the GFS 12z gets -12c uppers over the north but the precipitation chart for that time shows rain for that part of the island, shows how rubbish they are. :P

TheMilkyPirate

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I read before, and not sure if true or not, that the ICON is closely related to the ECMWF, in that it uses its data. I have also heard it said that if earlier runs of the ICON shows a change in the expected overall pattern, that that is a good indicator that the following ECMWF runs will show something similar. Again, how true that is I don't know.

Think it's a higher resolution than the ECMWF as well is it not?

Don't think we're any closer to knowing how this goes but we are very much still in the game.

Gonzo

-12 uppers over Leinster and -10 nationwide by Saturday/Sunday. Not as cold from Monday but still in the -8 to -10 range. Stiff easterly wind too with possibly a horrific wind chill. We lose the easterly and showers on Tuesday as winds swing into the north and it becomes dry but stays very cold.

let's see where do we go from here.

Gaoth Laidir

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Thanks GL. Informative as always. More generally what is your thinking on the weather pattern in, say, 8 days time?

I don't bother looking far ahead anymore as it's an exercise in futility, especially now. I just accept whatever weather we get and prefer to just focus on the finer details closer to the time.

Gonzo

GEM also rolling out, doesn't look great so far.

ninebeanrows

The beloved GEM has betrayed us tonight, that pesky low over Ireland, UK from about 96hrs just fails to sink south, this is all on the proverbial knife edge

nacho libre

Well the UKMO text has not changed which is a good sign.
Let's see will the ECM stick to its guns this evening.

polarhullar

Any forecasted temperatures for next week? Need to test camping gear before an Arctic trip next year.

Gonzo

really poor GEM. Every time we get a model back in favour we lose another. GEM is a continuation of the current horrible setup with Scotland getting white gold and no mans land for Ireland.

Gonzo

polarhullar wrote: »

Any forecasted temperatures for next week? Need to test camping gear before an Arctic trip next year.

Next week is far too away to even begin looking at temperatures with major disagreement in the models.

First half of the week is average temperatures, after Wednesday everything is up in the air.

Slashermcguirk

Am I right in saying GFS tends to be most reliable on average?

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

Well the UKMO text has not changed which is a good sign.
Let's see will the ECM stick to its guns this evening.

What did farming forecast say today?

Artane2002

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Am I right in saying GFS tends to be most reliable on average?

no, unfortunately the ECM is the most reliable one normally! this is why it's worrying not to have it on board.

nacho libre

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Am I right in saying GFS tends to be most reliable on average?

The ECM is the top model in the verification stakes. It does not mean it's always right, but in a standoff you'd favour the ECM. With this in mind if its next run is a stinker, i think the GFS will move towards it by the morning

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

What did farming forecast say today?

I did not see it.

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

The ECM is the top model in the verification stakes. It does not mean it's always right, but in a standoff you'd favour the ECM. With this in mind if its next run is a stinker, i think the GFS will move towards it by the morning

Now that the GEM is a stinker after days of great charts, if the ECM continues with it's stinking run then it really is time to start getting worried about next weekends potential slipping away.

The run up to potent cold spells are rarely very smooth like 2010 and 2018 but this run up is far too all over the place with major disagreements that we cannot in any way feel confident about next weekend.

Larbre34

munsterlegend wrote: »

What did farming forecast say today?

Nothing of interest. Cool and wet early in the week, getting milder by Thursday, drying out from Friday. No mention whatsoever of cooling or wintry weather up to and beyond 7 days.

Artane2002

Gonzo wrote: »

Now that the GEM is a stinker after days of great charts, if the ECM continues with it's stinking run then it really is time to start getting worried about next weekends potential slipping away.

The run up to potent cold spells are rarely very smooth like 2010 and 2018 but this run up is far too all over the place with major disagreements that we cannot in any way feel confident about next weekend.

it would be very disappointing if it ends up slipping away when you know that something like the GFS is so close to happening, which isn't far off my definition of a beast. I expect the ECM to continue acting the maggot.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

Now that the GEM is a stinker after days of great charts, if the ECM continues with it's stinking run then it really is time to start getting worried about next weekends potential slipping away.

The run up to potent cold spells are rarely very smooth like 2010 and 2018 but this run up is far too all over the place with major disagreements that we cannot in any way feel confident about next weekend.

Patterns are hard to get out of, and i think this evenings ECM will go some way to showing if we are going to continue with the pattern we've had all winter. If it is a bad run, i think it won't be long before we see its own members support it, then i would expect to see the GFS and UKMO to back it by tomorrow evening. I hope i am wrong, but i'm getting a bad feeling.

Gonzo

Artane2002 wrote: »

it would be very disappointing if it ends up slipping away when you know that something like the GFS is so close to happening, which isn't far off my definition of a beast. I expect the ECM to continue acting the maggot.

I'm expecting no change with the ECM.

Slashermcguirk

Worrying not to have in on board YET :-)

Artane2002 wrote: »

no, unfortunately the ECM is the most reliable one normally! this is why it's worrying not to have it on board.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm expecting no change with the ECM.

Yeah I have that feeling that the ECM will stick to its guns and the other models will most likely follow tomorrow. We may have to wait till late Feb for a potent cold blast just like 2018. Hope I’m 1000% wrong!

Oneiric 3

Looking at the UKMO output, and while the charts look pretty, in terms of snowfall potential and decent low temps, no great shakes really.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

Patterns are hard to get out of, and i think this evenings ECM will go some way to showing if we are going to continue with the pattern we've had all winter. If it is a bad run, i think it won't be long before we see its own members support it, then i would expect to see the GFS and UKMO to back it by tomorrow evening. I hope i am wrong, but i'm getting a bad feeling.

I think the worst-case scenario is what you describe here. A continuation of what we have seen since the onset of January and I dread that you may be right.

esposito

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Looking at the UKMO output, and while the charts look pretty, in terms of snowfall potential and decent low temps, no great shakes really.

One would think that an easterly in February would be cold enough:rolleyes:

esposito

How come we are all taking the GEM so seriously lately? I don't recall this in years gone by.
I'm guessing its verification stats have improved. (Probably answered my own question there):D

Rougies

esposito wrote: »

How come we are all taking the GEM so seriously lately? I don't recall this in years gone by.
I'm guessing its verification stats have improved. (Probably answered my own question there):D

Well it's still a tier 2 model but it's useful when looking for trends and cross model (dis)agreement. Also there is a bias for many posters to take models more seriously when they show amazing cold snowy runs like the GEM did yesterday!