FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

As alluded to above if that cut off low that stalls near us mid-week doesn't sink south we could have a dreadful few weeks of cold rain. We will know much more by Wednesday.

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

How come we are all taking the GEM so seriously lately? I don't recall this in years gone by.
I'm guessing its verification stats have improved. (Probably answered my own question there):D

The GEM was being taken seriously as it has performed very well at times over the past year and when both it and the GFS were predicting a possible beast next weekend confidence begins to grow despite the ECM not on board. But now the GEM has backed off completely, we still have the ECM which has never really gone for a cold spell at any stage and the GFS is more or less on it's own now which is throwing the cold spell into serious doubt. The pub run tonight could easily flip to an ECM/GEM outlook and if that happens then we will be back to square one looking for a cold spell sometime later in February.

Artane2002

esposito wrote: »

How come we are all taking the GEM so seriously lately? I don't recall this in years gone by.
I'm guessing its verification stats have improved. (Probably answered my own question there):D

it got an upgrade I think in the last year, it is now performing better than the GFS believe it or not!

ninebeanrows

Regardless of what happens in the rest of this output the 96hr is an improvement on last nights 12z with positioning of low @ 96hrs.

Let's hope the rest of run reaps the rewards of this low being positioned better

ninebeanrows

Not sure what to make of the 120hr chart,

Probably useless to look beyond this time frame though as so much uncertainty around this low and the ramifications of how it develops

I'd tentatively say it is a positive move from the EC tonight

TheMilkyPirate

Low heading north east rather than south where we want it to go.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM close to magic @144. Not sure it will make it.

Artane2002

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ECM close to magic @144. Not sure it will make it.

don't think it'll make it. northern blocking is noticeably stronger on this run compared to the 0z though..

ninebeanrows

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

ECM close to magic @144. Not sure it will make it.

Yea such small margins, any positive shift could see us being thrown into the midst of decent cold spell in 5 days time.

ninebeanrows

An improvement on the 0z, not there yet but we're getting there.

Rebelbrowser

Certainly the GFS has been pretty consistent and the ECM less so. If GEM had stayed on board you would have had more confidence in the easterly outcome coming to pass

Artane2002

the ECM is okayish I suppose, I'm no expert but if I'm reading it correctly then I can see it being quite snowy (or slushy!) for some?

JanuarySnowstor

All very messy across all models and as I said earlier fraught with danger! Best thing for now is to remain firmly seated to the fence!
Could be snowy nirvana or damp squib!

mickger844posts

The ECM is a massive improvement on the 12z yesterday. So we have the big 3 models all giving some sort of very cold outcome for the weekend. GEM not onbaord but if we had the choice of one model to not be on board i think GEM would be top of that list. In general i'm liking the trends without getting too deep into the finer details of each run.

Kermit.de.frog

It's a step in the right direction alright but not quite there yet. Needs only relatively minor changes though.

JanuarySnowstor

As a side note Scotland looks poised for huge snow totals this week! Might be of benefit as winds do come from this direction end of week. Going by countryfile it snows all week over Scotland

Oneiric 3

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

we could have a dreadful few weeks of cold rain.

Don't EVER say such things in my presence again.

Kermit.de.frog

I thought it was a low blow meself

Oneiric 3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's a step in the right direction alright but not quite there yet. Needs only relatively minor changes though.

So it's close, but no cigar?

ninebeanrows

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Don't EVER say such things in my presence again.

*sleety rain

Kermit.de.frog

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

So it's close, but no cigar?

Maybe half a cigar

It's going the right way though so hopefully tomorrow should look even better

nacho libre

Well it was not what i was expecting. It's similar to the GEM , just that the ECM manages to get colder air in

Some don't get there easterly, but there could well be some snow about instead of cold rain, which was all we were likely to get with its last run. So this run has to be seen as improvement in that regard. With a few tweaks it could have been a stellar run.

Rebelbrowser

Certainly the ECM moved towards the GFS and not the other way round as most of us feared

Right I've made my mind up on this
The solution has more tweaks to come in the same direction in my opinion
The trend seems to be forwards and backwards but momentum along the same road to the country eventually covered in minus 10s and 11's about mid fdbruaryish I'd expect maybe sooner
Less marginality with each brush with cold as they come,from here on , I would think before the main event(s)

Humberto Salazar

The ECM is better than this mornings run for coldies, in as far as it dispenses with the Euro high in FI. Instead, cold rain, days of it, look likely. Not snow. It's a terrible run. I don't see any positives. We're simply not getting any fetch from the East, and even there the bitter cold has retreated.

ninebeanrows

Extremely good news from the ECMWF ENS

ninebeanrows

Very significant support for a decent cold shot 6-9 Feb

Darwin

I see -8c uppers next Saturday on the 12z ECM, so not a complete disaster if you want cold. I do agree with the above sentiment regarding lack of a deep cold pool to tap into, but given the disagreement in the models at present, nothing can be ruled in or out.

TheMilkyPirate

ECM mean looking very good. -8 850s from early Saturday

Daz_

AuntySnow wrote: »

Right I've made my mind up on this
The solution has more tweaks to come in the same direction in my opinion
The trend seems to be forwards and backwards but momentum along the same road to the country eventually covered in minus 10s and 11's about mid fdbruaryish I'd expect maybe sooner
Less marginality with each brush with cold as they come,from here on , I would think before the main event(s)

And I thought this was supposed to be the technical model discussion forum ...