FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

If this is hanging on i'll take it. In any case the Me Eireann monthly indicated the Atlantic would return temporarily. No point focusing too much on a breakdown anyway.

Captain Snow

No Panic ... all is good:)

sicknotexi

ECM gives many the coldest 4 days since 2018. I'll take it.

Nqp15hhu

sicknotexi wrote: »

ECM gives many the coldest 4 days since 2018. I'll take it.

I am forecasted 2c highs throughout. I would expect colder than that.

Rebelbrowser

A better view of some of those temps. not great down here, not -10s widely either as suggested - but i know in an easterly you don't need such low uppers for sneachta

Captain Snow

Any engress into entrenched cold over Ireland from the Atlantic will produce dinner sized snow flakes.

Portweather

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I am forecasted 2c highs throughout. I would expect colder than that.

Maybe this will happen like 2018!

John.Icy

Folks, it's the FI model output thread.

People are going to comment run-by-run on small details in the unreliable, point out the good and the bad, look for trends. It is the literal purpose of the thread.

Run to run downgrades/upgrades can and will happen and people will point this out.

If you're having a moan at people discussing Day 6 charts then don't visit the FI thread, no? 90% of the discussion in here does not end up materialising. Relax and look at the context. Every time someone mentions the word downgrade etc. DOES NOT indicate the cold is not coming.

There's a tiny number of people posting obtuse troll-y posts. Stop reacting and follow the folk who can back it up with charts.

Reversal

Return to mild is at day 8. Imagine what would be said if we treated the arrival of cold at day 8 as gospel.

Arduach

Is this the mild weather you speak of on Monday?

Gonzo

GEM 12z is very similar to the ECM 12z, brings the mild in Wednesday night/Thursday.

Overall basically we are looking at a 3 to 4 day cold spell for now. This breakdown is a whole week away and well into FI land. I think the best thing we can do for now is focus on Saturday night to Tuesday. At this point I think everything up to next Tuesday night looks reasonably safe.

nacho libre

Captain Snow wrote: »

Any engress into entrenched cold over Ireland from the Atlantic will produce dinner sized snow flakes.

Yes. Hopefully a decent snowfall before any transition back to rain. Before that a few snowy days for people to enjoy

Donegal Ken

I wouldn't be looking past next Wednesday as models are still coming to terms with this and I think early next week is now fairly nailed down now with significant falls of snow for the eastern half of Ireland and also for northern parts of Ulster from Sunday night into Tuesday. We may see a more widespread snow event later next week then.

nacho libre

Reversal wrote: »

Return to mild is at day 8. Imagine what would be said if we treated the arrival of cold at day 8 as gospel.

The ECM has moved to the GFS scenario regarding that low.


It's all quite plausible,If we look at what the jetstream profile is. In any event we get a 4 day cold and snowy spell, assuming there no downgrades. 4 or 5 days is the best we usually get, anything longer is uncommon.

Nqp15hhu

Donegal Ken wrote: »

I wouldn't be looking past next Wednesday as models are still coming to terms with this and I think early next week is now fairly nailed down now with significant falls of snow for the eastern half of Ireland and also for northern parts of Ulster from Sunday night into Tuesday. We may see a more widespread snow event later next week then.

You think we will see snow? I am expecting nothing, the wind is straight easterly.

squarecircles

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

nacho libre

If there will be a breakdown, i'll gladly take this

typhoony

esposito wrote: »

How worried would you be about this energy entering the Atlantic from the snowstorms on east coast US? It’s not a certainty that it will fire up the jet is it? And if it does, could the low pressure systems diverge south into Iberia and miss us altogether. Trying to be positive...

not much to be positive about as the systems look like making us the Bullseye, they will make short work of the colder air

Stevieluvsye

squarecircles wrote: »

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

Boohoo for you

Easterlies are certainly not useless where i am

nacho libre

squarecircles wrote: »

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

I, for one, will be very glad of a few fine days from an easterly after 5 days with no sunshine. Bring on the clear blue skies, and the frosty mornings and nights!

Arduach

nacho libre wrote: »

I, for one, will be very glad of a few fine days from an easterly after 5 days with no sunshine. Bring on the clear blue skies, and the frosty mornings and nights!

Good attitude. And anything is possible from Wednesday night on. The west could be on the mild/cold boundary and end up with a blizzard like 25/26 February 1947.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

GEM 12z is very similar to the ECM 12z, brings the mild in Wednesday night/Thursday.

Overall basically we are looking at a 3 to 4 day cold spell for now. This breakdown is a whole week away and well into FI land. I think the best thing we can do for now is focus on Saturday night to Tuesday. At this point I think everything up to next Tuesday night looks reasonably safe.

Absolutely. It may well break down around Wednesday/Thursday but we won't know that until Saturday at the earliest in my opinion.

There will always be ups and downs in the build up to events. It's just part and parcel of it.

It's fun though.

Little snowy old me

squarecircles wrote: »

A few frosty dry nights in the west before the dogmuck returns.pathetic.

Easterlys are useless for snow what we need is a northerly blast,

Imagine to think we've been waiting since mid December for this, its so sad.

I'm trying to remain positive but I think your summary may turn out to be correct. Its all going a bit wobbly this evening and the RTE weather after 6 news was very tame.

murfo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Kermit, you have taken on the status of a John Giles at half time in a Ireland match in the 90's. We all turn to you to find out how things are going even though we are watching ourselves!

Course that raises the spectre of there being a Bill and a Dunphy on the weather forum too.....

As long as he doesn't start saying stuff like "the ecm looks a bit scratchy past t120"

Kermit.de.frog

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Kermit, you have taken on the status of a John Giles at half time in a Ireland match in the 90's. We all turn to you to find out how things are going even though we are watching ourselves!

Course that raises the spectre of there being a Bill and a Dunphy on the weather forum too.....

Well, you do have to take each chart on it's merits...

Arduach

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I'm trying to remain positive but I think your summary may turn out to be correct. Its all going a bit wobbly this evening and the RTE weather after 6 news was very tame.

The new lady forecaster is quite matter of fact. Met Eireann wouldn't get excited about something starting 4 days away anyway.

What you need is George Lee doing the forecast and he'd make it sound like The Day After Tomorrow.

Nothing going wobbly at all.

Arduach

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Well, you do have to take each chart on it's merits...

I think myself anytime she forecasts, Siobhan Ryan shows a lot of moral courage.

Little snowy old me

Arduach wrote: »

The new lady forecaster is quite matter of fact. Met Eireann wouldn't get excited about something starting 4 days away anyway.

What you need is George Lee doing the forecast and he'd make it sound like The Day After Tomorrow.

Nothing going wobbly at all.

George Lee ha ha. The other end of the scale! He sure is a drama queen.

OK. Will remain positive. Time for tea and cake and to feed the dogs. I'll get my frosty days and maybe even a bit of snow too. Better than nothing. Keeping calm.....

Arduach

I think little Snowy Old Me has to be Dunphy..'the 12z GFS was a good run, not a great one'.

Nacho, the voice of reason, Bill O'Herlihy.. 'Well I for one would be happy with 4 frosty days.. And it must be said that this cold spell could last beyond Wednesday John?'

squarecircles

We need siobhan Ryan with her frust and copious amounts of snow in the main there.

All the while remaining bitterly cold there throughout.