FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Artane2002

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Someone care to share the chart?

I think the chart will change when the 0z comes out, I can't get imgur to work as I mentioned but here's the chart. it's not as strange looking at it the second time but I don't think it's right either, yesterday's 18z also went off the rails.

Kermit.de.frog

The problem we have this year is that it has been much milder than normal in eastern Europe and western Russia - we have no real deep cold pool to tap in to.

Our only route at the moment for snow is a northeasterly over Scandinavia in terms of anything significant from the continent.

Gonzo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The problem we have this year is that it has been much milder than normal in eastern Europe and western Russia - we have no real deep cold pool to tap in to.

Our only route at the moment for snow is a northeasterly over Scandinavia in terms of anything significant from the continent.

yep the very mild European December has degraded this cold spell alot from what could have been. This mornings GFS operational run isn't great but several of the lower resolution members are having a go at getting us very cold and much more interesting bringing in much colder air further south.

A few choice runs from this mornings models. Highly unlikely to verifiy but maybe the runs are onto something colder.

GFS P26:





GFS P21:





GFS P29:





GFS P09:





GFS P20:





There are more cold runs than the above shown but these give a glimmer of hope that the window is still well and truly open to deliver something more promising in January.

Slashermcguirk

It would be great to get a super cold event that happens in mid January. Days much shorter then and I always felt January should deliver our coldest weather. So often it’s February / March that ends up delivering our coldest weather but days getting longer at that point.

A snowy January would be class

Kermit.de.frog

My own sense is we have entered a long colder period but just have yet to hit the jackpot. We are in the buildup.

Gonzo

12z about midway through rollout, that appears to be a bit of a screeching easterly over Ireland and major high pressure developing over Greenland. Hopefully we hit the jackpot on further updates and more of the other members.

Kermit.de.frog

The great Munster blizzard on the 6th of January

Artane2002

PLEASE let this happen

Snowbiee21

Artane2002 wrote: »

PLEASE let this happen

FI for a reason, won’t get excited until at least 48-72 hours beforehand! Promising signs nevertheless

Artane2002

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

FI for a reason, won’t get excited until at least 48-72 hours beforehand! Promising signs nevertheless

the models have been toying around with some sort of an easterly for the start of January but not quite as good as what the GFS is showing. I'd love to trust what the GFS is showing but it has been extremely inconsistent recently so it's hard to have any faith in it, and of course, it's in FI.

Gonzo

Once the GFS and all it's runs are fully mapped out will take a look and see if we have more colder runs compared to this mornings 6z which had at least 7 interesting cold and runs.

edit: 12z still updating and remains very promising for the first half of January.

nacho libre

Artane2002 wrote: »

the models have been toying around with some sort of an easterly for the start of January but not quite as good as what the GFS is showing. I'd love to trust what the GFS is showing but it has been extremely inconsistent recently so it's hard to have any faith in it, and of course, it's in FI.

It seems to spot trends that look very appealing, but the finer details end up being a bit more sobering. Hopefully that is not the case into January. If events in the stratosphere play ball, it maybe that we have to endure a milder spell before a proper cold outbreak. I think we'd take that, if it led to a cold reload with -10 to -12 uppers over us

arctictree

Artane2002 wrote: »

PLEASE let this happen

That's a 2018 scenario.

Kermit.de.frog

Not quite, not for eastern coasts, would be mostly heavy rain. It's not as cold as 2018. Away from high ground of course.

sryanbruen

Very poor for an easterly. Cold rain galore.

Humberto Salazar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The great Munster blizzard on the 6th of January

Haven't seen one since Feb 78....rare as hens teeth, must be well overdue now.

Humberto Salazar

A fabulous ECM run this evening, soured by the fact we have no severe cold out east. It will be cold, make no mistake, for at least the next ten days. GFS has disagreed and brought milder weather in, who will be right?

Gonzo

tonight's ECM ends on a chilly easterly, although it still does not get into the freezer category.



The GFS shows alot of promise but doesn't quite pull off the freezer although we do get close at times on some of the other runs.



GFS goes milder again after this short lived easterly and ends with another possible cold attack from the north.



We have yet to hit the jackpot but today's runs have been encouraging towards building colder weather into the first and second week of January. Hopefully lots more upgrades to come rather than a continuation of the current very uninspiring and relatively dry cool to cold pattern.

Villain

Yes very interesting ECM but it’s an awful pity we don’t have proper cold out East to tap into. Still I’ll take a cool Easterly over mild muck from the West any day.

Interesting few model runs ahead and of course we have an SSW that could come into play further down the line.

Snowbiee21

Villain wrote: »

Yes very interesting ECM but it’s an awful pity we don’t have proper cold out East to tap into. Still I’ll take a cool Easterly over mild muck from the West any day.

Interesting few model runs ahead and of course we have an SSW that could come into play further down the line.

Next year we’ll have no easterly and a huge cold pool to our east, typical :O

Kermit.de.frog

Finally some sub -8 850 temps on course out in lala land

Humberto Salazar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Finally some sub -8 850 temps on course out in lala land

Indeed, but you'd love and indeed expect to see the deep purple - 12's and - 16's over Poland Russia, Eastern Germany in this set up. Where are they?

compsys

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Indeed, but you'd love and indeed expect to see the deep purple - 12's and - 16's over Poland Russia, Eastern Germany in this set up. Where are they?

It's almost frightening seeing how warm the continent is in that set-up right in the middle of winter.

Is it just a mix of bad luck and very specific synoptics right now or is this what the 'new' winter will look like with global warming?

These past two or three winters it's even struggled to snow in many southern parts of Sweden and Denmark. It's crazy.

sicknotexi

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

A fabulous ECM run this evening, soured by the fact we have no severe cold out east. It will be cold, make no mistake, for at least the next ten days. GFS has disagreed and brought milder weather in, who will be right?

Wasn't the GFS 12z showing colder conditions too with an easterly in FI?

Reversal

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Indeed, but you'd love and indeed expect to see the deep purple - 12's and - 16's over Poland Russia, Eastern Germany in this set up. Where are they?

As has been the case for much of December, orientation of the Russian high pressure is cutting off any cold air pooling in from Siberia, and pumping milder air into Eastern Europe.

ZX7R

Reversal wrote: »

As has been the case for much of December, orientation of the Russian high pressure is cutting off any cold air pooling in from Siberia, and pumping milder air into Eastern Europe.

Russian high is expected to move further east and south in the new year according polish forecasters opening the doors to the cold.

Wine Goddess

ZX7R wrote: »

Russian high is expected to move further east and south in the new year according polish forecasters opening the doors to the cold.

How snowy is it with you in Poland?

Humberto Salazar

ZX7R wrote: »

Russian high is expected to move further east and south in the new year according polish forecasters opening the doors to the cold.

Let's hope so. We've still got, realistically, a 6 to 8 week period for proper wintery weather,its still possible.

White Clover

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Let's hope so. We've still got, realistically, a 6 to 8 week period for proper wintery weather,its still possible.

I would say if we get through the next 2 weeks without anything drastic, we're in the clear then and looking down the barrell at spring.
There is nearly always a bit of unsettled weather around these days every year.

mcburns07

White Clover wrote: »

I would say if we get through the next 2 weeks without anything drastic, we're in the clear then and looking down the barrell at spring.
There is nearly always a bit of unsettled weather around these days every year.

Ah stop will ya. Spring is a long way away.