FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

TonyMaloney

Interesting looking GEFS. The poxy low is being held at bay, with what seems like a bit of a block forming again

Dazler97

nacho libre wrote: »

As was mentioned earlier those charts will change numerous times, also they don't really take into account features that may pop up. We will always get the crumbs from an easterly, but if a trough or two pops up we might get some snow moving westwards. In any case the longer the cold spell goes on the higher the chance of us getting in on the action at some point from a frontal feature or perhaps from a change in the wind direction.

Ye I know but I just want snow so badly, I used to live in dublin so that's the hot spot always for snow but since living in the northwest I don't expect that much snow although I hope I'm proven wrong

Nqp15hhu

Dublin isn’t a hotspot for snow.

Gonzo

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Dublin isn’t a hotspot for snow.

nowhere on this island is a hotspot for snow or most of the UK for that matter away from the Scottish highlands.

Gonzo

Tonights ensembles have clearly lowered the overall mean temperature over the next week. We've lost several mild runs too and everything after Tuesday is very much in question. The return of the Atlantic is now looking rather uncertain and it's possible we could see a slight extension to the cold spell or some warmer air move up from southern Europe.

nacho libre

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

Tonights ensembles have clearly lowered the overall mean temperature over the next week. We've lost several mild runs too and everything after Tuesday is very much in question. The return of the Atlantic is now looking rather uncertain and it's possible we could see a slight extension to the cold spell or some warmer air move up from southern Europe.

Yes. We just might be seeing the reason Exeter was rather bullish about Atlantic fronts not making much inroads being reflected in the GFS output.. Lets see if the GFS run in a few hours shows something similar.

The guys over on NW are convinced the Atlantic either isn’t coming anywhere and if it does it’s coming in low.

It’s like Christmas over there.

Gonzo

Deleted User wrote: »

The guys over on NW are convinced the Atlantic either isn’t coming anywhere and if it does it’s coming in low.

It’s like Christmas over there.

anything is possible between now and the end of February. I wouldn't rule out a reload of cold either by a Scandinavian or Greenland high by the 3rd or 4th week of February. Once the upcoming cold spell clears we could enter a period of rather bland conditions and another cold period to end the month. Interesting times ahead.

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

The guys over on NW are convinced the Atlantic either isn’t coming anywhere and if it does it’s coming in low.

It’s like Christmas over there.

Some of the charts suggest a settled period, then a possible reload of cold sometime after mid month. The CFS has been suggesting something like this for weeks.

BLIZZARD7

ICON 0z to start proceedings today and it's sublime - Low disrupts to our south and prolongs the deep cold all week as Heavy snow showers pile into the east and south coast...

Dazler97

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ICON 0z to start proceedings today and it's sublime - Low disrupts to our south and prolongs the deep cold all week as Heavy snow showers pile into the east and south coast...

That looks like weather porn seriously, hope we get snow here in the northwest

bazlers

Deleted User wrote: »

The guys over on NW are convinced the Atlantic either isn’t coming anywhere and if it does it’s coming in low.

It’s like Christmas over there.

Cant see that high will hold for long. Historically it always wins.maybe extend things by a day. As always hope im wrong and it holds for the month! We have 3 -4 fantastic days to look forward to anyhow.( fingers crossed )

Kermit.de.frog

Some good stuff this morning on GFS/UKMO/ICON. All a degree or two colder on the ops than previous runs and intriguing in their own ways for snow prospects and GFS/ICON extending things time wise a bit on previous runs.

Interesting times ahead :cool:

sicknotexi

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some good stuff this morning on GFS/UKMO/ICON. All a degree or two colder on the ops than previous runs and intriguing in their own ways for snow prospects and GFS/ICON extending things time wise a bit on previous runs.

Interesting times ahead :cool:

Check out the GEM. Blizzard conditions if that came off. Snows for 2 days solid from Wednesday morning all the way through to Friday morning. Zero chance it comes off but what a run.

Stevieluvsye

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some good stuff this morning on GFS/UKMO/ICON. All a degree or two colder on the ops than previous runs and intriguing in their own ways for snow prospects and GFS/ICON extending things time wise a bit on previous runs.

Interesting times ahead :cool:

Get your finger out and get the real thread going KDF. It’s time!

bazlers

ECM is still good to my tired peepers. Atlantic high might have increased ( certainly holding). At least 3 solid cold days from what i see. Ive noticed this for a bit but signs of scandi high might be on the cards later.

Anyhow all still good to early days of next week. The rest in FI but good potential all in all.

Tyrone212

Ecm t96 to end of run has Ulster in uppers of -8 to -11 throughout

-8 uppers cover the entire island only once at t144

T216 uppers -11 in far north, 0 on South Coast.

Large temperature contrasts. Small changes could make a massive difference.

Deepest depth of snow at day 6 is a patchy 1 inch in mourne mountains, around malin head and a wee blob in leinster. .4 inch more widespread across leinster.

By day 7 more widespread snow across the southern half of country. Highest depths in Munster. Large pocket of 2 inches. Isolated 4 inches in munster.

Snow depths increase further in the following days but all academic at this stage.

Cw85

Is it just me or have things got a lot quiter on here the nearer we get to this cold spell? Seems like a week ago it was manic. Maybe because it's locked in and and we're just waiting to see what it brings?

Stevieluvsye

Cw85 wrote: »

Is it just me or have things got a lot quiter on here the nearer we get to this cold spell? Seems like a week ago it was manic. Maybe because it's locked in and and we're just waiting to see what it brings?

It's 7.30am. Were you expecting a boards weather all night rave?

https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-000120966560-z4z6s6-t500x500.jpg

Even frogs have to sleep

Villain

The ECM is trying to hang on to cold and brings some real dumping of snow later next week in FI. The UKMO still looks good and GFS is still blowing up that low but would bring a period of heavy snow Wednesday into Thursday before the thaw.

ECM charts:

Stevieluvsye

Question, the precip values seem quite low at the moment. Are streamers not factored in to the projections?

Villain

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Question, the precip values seem quite low at the moment. Are streamers not factored in to the projections?

The lower resolution models don't handle the streamers as well, the high resolution models when we get within 48 hours would give better idea but all depends on wind direction and some instability. Hard to call them 4 days out.

bazlers

Cw85 wrote: »

Is it just me or have things got a lot quiter on here the nearer we get to this cold spell? Seems like a week ago it was manic. Maybe because it's locked in and and we're just waiting to see what it brings?

Sometimes you might find peeps wait for daddys forecast (MTC) because if daddy takes the ball away there is no fun and games:pac:

Humberto Salazar

The ECM has flipped back to slider low and battleground snow v rain scenarios later next week. You'll forgive my slight cynicism. I'll await this evenings ECM and hope it keeps this trend, it's a much better scenario for decent snow.

Steopo

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Question, the precip values seem quite low at the moment. Are streamers not factored in to the projections?

That’s for the next rollercoaster ride which probably starts Sat morning. We’ve had a wild ride over last week of ups & downs of model watching but now looks certain the cold is locked in. Next rollercoaster will be all about who gets snow & how much, will Irish Sea kick up enough streamers, will Isle of Man shadow block some areas, will streamers make it across country, will cold last all week, will Atlantic low clash with cold air & bring a big dump to some areas later in week which some models are showing etc.. it’s probably going to be a different thread but all aboard for the next rollercoaster, it’s going to be fun

Cw85

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

It's 7.30am. Were you expecting a boards weather all night rave?

Even frogs have to sleep

I meant in the last few days obviously

nacho libre

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The ECM has flipped back to slider low and battleground snow v rain scenarios later next week. You'll forgive my slight cynicism. I'll await this evenings ECM and hope it keeps this trend, it's a much better scenario for decent snow.

I know you will be doing snow dances in Offaly between now and the next ECM run. You are right though fingers crossed it's not a downgrade.

average_runner

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

It's 7.30am. Were you expecting a boards weather all night rave?

Even frogs have to sleep

NPHET banned the raves:D

Rebelbrowser

On the chat thread (which I read first) talk is of the south potentially missing out. That's what MT is saying too but having just looked at the 0z runs I really don't see that? Looks to me like there are -8 s everywhere (save maybe the Dingle peninsula) for a good two days and in fact locally on the very south coast (which includes two of our cities obviously) the -8s arrive Sunday and stay til, what looks like a massive snow storm, arrives Wednesday night! That's what I took from the charts anyway, was over the moon when I saw them, so surprised by what I'm reading now....