Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

We looked at this months ago. I presume it also includes vacant local authority housing? Places like dolphins barn that have a lot of vacant units. Then you have the ridiculous developments in d4.
But what use is 6k empty units in Donegal...

Yes, and the numbers remain the same. But I fear it may be impossible for me to expand it on without risking a thread ban for saying that the census indicates an oversupply of property. (as per Graham's warning to PropQueries) - instead you can follow the link read Justin Gleeson's report saying the same thing.

Pelezico

Hubertj wrote: »

We looked at this months ago. I presume it also includes vacant local authority housing? Places like dolphins barn that have a lot of vacant units. Then you have the ridiculous developments in d4.
But what use is 6k empty units in Donegal...

But did not the CSO identify a lot of empty properties in Fingal?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, and the numbers remain the same. But I fear it may be impossible for me to expand it on without risking a thread ban for saying that the census indicates an oversupply of property. (as per Graham's warning to PropQueries) - instead you can follow the link read Justin Gleeson's report saying the same thing.

But nearly 20k vacant between Mayo Roscommon and Donegal..... what do you do with them? Could do something like the American old west? Wagon trains of people racing to settle claims?

But seriously some competent public servants, if there are any, should be looking at this in more urban areas to determine how many actually matter. And Michael O’Leary’s house on Elgin road is still for rent at €15k... will be vacant for some time too

Pelezico

Hubertj wrote: »

But nearly 20k vacant between Mayo Roscommon and Donegal..... what do you do with them? Could do something like the American old west? Wagon trains of people racing to settle claims?

But seriously some competent public servants, if there are any, should be looking at this in more urban areas to determine how many actually matter. And Michael O’Leary’s house on Elgin road is still for rent at €15k... will be vacant for some time too

The cost of capital is so low people dont mind leaving properties vacant. Higher property taxes might alleviate this but would be unpopular politically

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

But nearly 20k vacant between Mayo Roscommon and Donegal..... what do you do with them? Could do something like the American old west? Wagon trains of people racing to settle claims?

But seriously some competent public servants, if there are any, should be looking at this in more urban areas to determine how many actually matter. And Michael O’Leary’s house on Elgin road is still for rent at €15k... will be vacant for some time too

But isn’t that where COVID-19 and WFH etc. comes into play. Properties that were there but not considered a realistic part of the housing stock suddenly become a realistic part of the solution.

I’m not comparing it to fracking exactly, but I think a similar thing is happening in Ireland at speed.

Apparently, we were running out of oil until the Americans discovered how to make use of a huge supply of oil/gas that most people thought couldn’t be extracted (economically) but was always there.

This supply of houses in rural areas has now become a significant source of supply that can enter the market very quickly once their owners believe they can finally make use of them IMO

Just to reiterate, I’m not comparing housing to the oil market. Just that there is some similarity there IMO

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

But isn’t that where COVID-19 and WFH etc. comes into play. Properties that were there but not considered a realistic part of the housing stock suddenly become a realistic part of the solution.

I’m not comparing it to fracking exactly, but I think a similar thing is happening in Ireland at speed.

Apparently, we were running out of oil until the Americans discovered how to make use of a huge supply of oil/gas that most people thought couldn’t be extracted (economically) but was always there.

This supply of houses in rural areas has now become a significant source of supply that can enter the market very quickly once their owners believe they can finally make use of them IMO

Just to reiterate, I’m not comparing housing to the oil market. Just that there is some similarity there IMO

Clearly, you have never lived in Leitrim,Roscommon or the mid west. It is a dump with no redeeming features.

Look at north Cavan for clues. They think Sean Quinn is a hero who was a victim of theft.

That is what you get in these places....lads with little education and pure begrudgery and resentment of outside influences.

Little wonder so many houses for sale. I bet the owners could not wait to get out.

brisan

Pelezico wrote: »

Clearly, you have never lived in Leitrim,Roscommon or the mid west. It is a dump with no redeeming features.

Look at north Cavan for clues. They think Sean Quinn is a hero who was a victim of theft.

That is what you get in these places....lads with little education and pure begrudgery and resentment of outside influences.

There is a very good reason most of those houses are empty ............no one wants to live in them
Sharon the lone parent of 3 children from 3 unknown fathers from somewhere in Dublin certainly does not
She wants a house down the road from her ma

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, and the numbers remain the same. But I fear it may be impossible for me to expand it on without risking a thread ban for saying that the census indicates an oversupply of property. (as per Graham's warning to PropQueries) - instead you can follow the link read Justin Gleeson's report saying the same thing.

Mod Note

no issue with anyone discussing over-supply if it's relevant to the property market this year (or next year at the point).

Just don't deliberately misrepresent the data.

For example if the last census says there are 5,000 vacant properties, don't post that the census states there is an over supply of 5,000 properties.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

I guess we will have to wait until the next census to find out if that oversupply has been mopped up or not, which now will not take place until 2022.

What immediately jumps out from that chart is the location of over-supply.

Supply in the wrong location may as well be no supply.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

But isn’t that where COVID-19 and WFH etc. comes into play. Properties that were there but not considered a realistic part of the housing stock suddenly become a realistic part of the solution.

I’m not comparing it to fracking exactly, but I think a similar thing is happening in Ireland at speed.

Apparently, we were running out of oil until the Americans discovered how to make use of a huge supply of oil/gas that most people thought couldn’t be extracted (economically) but was always there.

This supply of houses in rural areas has now become a significant source of supply that can enter the market very quickly once their owners believe they can finally make use of them IMO

Just to reiterate, I’m not comparing housing to the oil market. Just that there is some similarity there IMO

WFH is a game changer but people will still need to go the office a couple of days a week.

Mayo and Donegal are 3/4 hours drive each way with traffic. yes Roscommon is closer and a 2 hour drive but I can't see people from the city moving to these locations to a old vacant house as the change in lifestyle would be to great.

Granted people with a connection to the land may choose this as they have ties but can't see a massive outflow out of the cities to locations like this just because WFH is on cards.

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Clearly, you have never lived in Leitrim,Roscommon or the mid west. It is a dump with no redeeming features.

Look at north Cavan for clues. They think Sean Quinn is a hero who was a victim of theft.

That is what you get in these places....lads with little education and pure begrudgery and resentment of outside influences.

Maybe. But you’d be surprised how many people would look twice now that they may have the very real option to WFH 3 days a week and clear their mortgage in 5 to 10 years if they buy in such places.

Let’s be honest, many moved to Navan etc. during the boom years.

Even if they really don’t want to move (and I fully understand that), it gives them a very real alternative to buying in Dublin and moves at least some of the bargaining power back to the potential buyer.

And I would be thinking more Tipperary etc. than Cavan etc.

It also reduces the pool of potential buyers for properties in Dublin.

I would look at the residential property investors in Dublin pre-COVID as OPEC before fracking took off.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

What immediately jumps out from that chart is the location of over-supply.

Supply in the wrong location may as well be no supply.

Sure worst spots of oversupply are in rubbish locations. But apart from that two things jump out to me:

i) Everywhere except South Dublin, Fingal, DLR and Kildare have oversupply to some extent.
ii) Dublin City has abnormally high oversupply

Neither of these facts suggests a serious shortage of housing stock.

Pelezico

I hope PropQueries keeps posting. Without you this thread would be a very dreary place.

But the mid west must surely be the most dreary place in Irelnd to live. Only the desperate would live there.

The mid west extends from Longford to Castlebar and from Cavan to Birr.

There are no young people because the young leave.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Sure worst spots of oversupply are in rubbish locations. But apart from that two things jump out to me:

i) Everywhere except South Dublin, Fingal, DLR and Kildare have oversupply to some extent.
ii) Dublin City has abnormally high oversupply

Neither of these facts suggests a serious shortage of housing stock.

1)There are places outside the pale with supply shortages.
2) Dublin City has a high no of vacants because they are either listed buildings or being held onto till they can buy a block and develop it... and because of this it is highly unlikely that properties will come to market in the short term

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe. But you’d be surprised how many people would look twice now that they may have the very real option to WFH 3 days a week and clear their mortgage in 5 to 10 years if they buy in such places.

Let’s be honest, many moved to Navan etc. during the boom years.

Even if they really don’t want to move (and I fully understand that), it gives them a very real alternative to buying in Dublin and moves at least some of the bargaining power back to the potential buyer.

And I would be thinking more Tipperary etc. than Cavan etc.

It also reduces the pool of potential buyers for properties in Dublin.

I would look at the residential property investors in Dublin pre-COVID as OPEC before fracking took off.

You would be surprised at how many people wouldn't look twice at this.

Conspiracy theory #2: everyone who currently lives in Dublin secretly longs for the hills of Donegal.

Farcical

Pelezico

Timing belt wrote: »

1)There are places outside the pale with supply shortages.
2) Dublin City has a high no of vacants because they are either listed buildings or being held onto till they can buy a block and develop it

When parents go into nursing homes, properties often remain unoccupied. This represents a number of vacant properties.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

Sure worst spots of oversupply are in rubbish locations. But apart from that two things jump out to me:

i) Everywhere except South Dublin, Fingal, DLR and Kildare have oversupply to some extent.
ii) Dublin City has abnormally high oversupply

Neither of these facts suggests a serious shortage of housing stock.

in 2016?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

1)There are places outside the pale with supply shortages.
2) Dublin City has a high no of vacants because they are either listed buildings or being held onto till they can buy a block and develop it

What I found interesting about that NTMA report you linked to yesterday was it included ESB reconnections.

Being trying to find sources for it as I believe it would provide a good insight into the number of previously vacant units reentering supply. Any ideas where they get that data?

Most people concentrate on new builds but re-connections are also a significant source of supply entering the market IMO.

For others, ESB reconnections are only counted if the property wasn’t connected in the past two years, so does give an indication of long term vacant stock reentering the market to add to supply. Open to correction if I’m wrong on that.

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

When parents go into nursing homes, properties often remain unoccupied. This represents a number of vacant properties.

Yes but unless there is a substantial nest egg the properties need to be sold to pay for the nursing home until the equity is all gone and then the state pick up the tab.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

What I found interesting about that NTMA report you linked to yesterday was it included ESB reconnections.

Being trying to find sources for it as I believe it would provide a good insight into the number of previously vacant units reentering supply. Any ideas where they get that data?

Most people concentrate on new builds but re-connections are also a significant source of supply entering the market IMO.

For others, ESB reconnections are only counted if the property wasn’t connected in the past two years, so does give an indication of long term vacant stock reentering the market to add to supply. Open to correction if I’m wrong on that.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq12018/ec/

Pelezico

One of the unintended consequences of lowintrredy rates and QE is the perceived lack of supply.

People can leave homes unoccupied for long periods and house prices do not tend to fall in price as there is excess capital.

A period of high interest rates would reduce demand..

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

1)There are places outside the pale with supply shortages.
2) Dublin City has a high no of vacants because they are either listed buildings or being held onto till they can buy a block and develop it... and because of this it is highly unlikely that properties will come to market in the short term

That's the point. These oversupply properties, whatever they are, might be unlikely to come to market in the short term, but they will come to market/or be occupied at some stage in the future.

By which time, if we have been building 50k houses a year we certainly won't be worried about a housing shortage!

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

in 2016?

Yes, people were talking about housing shortages in 2016, especially a rental crisis at that stage.

Geodirectory has more recent data which tells exactly the same story.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

That's the point. These oversupply properties, whatever they are, might be unlikely to come to market in the short term, but they will come to market/or be occupied at some stage in the future.

By which time, if we have been building 50k houses a year we certainly won't be worried about a housing shortage!

If the oversupply is somewhere with low demand it is unlikely that the situation will change.

In areas where there is high demand then you will see some of these knocked and rebuilt and will be included in the new builds stats. (Excluding listed buildings)

Graham

That there are vacant properties? I'm sure there are.

That's not the same as oversupply. That's not to say vacant properties are suddenly going to come back to the market. That's not to say the reasons these properties are vacant isn't going to remain.

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

One of the unintended consequences of lowintrredy rates and QE is the perceived lack of supply.

People can leave homes unoccupied for long periods and house prices do not tend to fall in price as there is excess capital.

A period of high interest rates would reduce demand.

A period of high interest rates would see and increase in defaults and more property coming to the market and hence lower prices.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq12018/ec/

Thanks. What was interesting was the NTMA putting supply at “Housing Completions above 25,000 in 2019” when reconnections are included.

It’s a lot more than the c. 21k when only new builds are counted.

From their presentation, the number of reconnections appears to have been around 4K to 5k every year since 2015.

One year of these mightn’t make much difference but over 5 to 6 years, we have c. 25k more homes entering supply than are counted by just looking at new builds.

c. 25k extra residential units at an average of one couple and one child is housing for 75,000 people. Fairly significant given Ireland’s small population and may be overlooked IMO

Pelezico

Graham wrote: »

That there are vacant properties? I'm sure there are.

That's not the same as oversupply. That's not to say vacant properties are suddenly going to come back to the market. That's not to say the reasons these properties are vacant isn't going to remain.

Relax baby ...we are all on message. There is no oversupply of property.

Pelezico

Pelezico wrote: »

Clearly, you have never lived in Leitrim,Roscommon or the mid west. It is a dump with no redeeming features.

Look at north Cavan for clues. They think Sean Quinn is a hero who was a victim of theft.

That is what you get in these places....lads with little education and pure begrudgery and resentment of outside influences.

Little wonder so many houses for sale. I bet the owners could not wait to get out.

Look, maybe there are not so many jobs opportunities in the region, but there's no need for the attacks on people.
Maybe keep your comments about the property market & less about insulting thousands of people.

Pelezico

bubblypop wrote: »

Look, maybe there are not so many jobs opportunities in the region, but there's no need for the attacks on people.
Maybe keep your comments about the property market & less about insulting thousands of people.

Apologies...genuinely. I speak as someone from that area. I have o romantic view of the mod west and will never return.