Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

PropQueries

Hulk Hands wrote: »

So Galway City is surely included if you're including those? You said the mid west had no redeeming features whatsoever? Galway city has no redeeming features?

What you're talking about in regards to rural towns is happening all over the country. Young people move to bigger cities. This happens the world over. The likes of Arklow, Athy and Kildare town are hardly known for vibrant youths. It's not unique to the west

Let’s be honest. Small towns are only miserable if you don’t have a decent job. Otherwise all the hospitals, schools etc. in towns all over the country would have no staff.

If WFH is real, then there will be plenty of high paying jobs to keep people in these towns.

Well, until...

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

But they don’t need to decamp. Rural people who used to move to Dublin for work now may not have to. Who’s then going to buy all those new built units and probate sales in Dublin?

Someone from Mullingar isn’t going to move to Lucan in order to be closer to work if they’re only in 2 or 3 days a week.

I think many people here must be living in Dalkey etc. and forget that most areas in Dublin are fairly miserable places to live in if you’re not actually born here.

As miserable to country folk as country areas are miserable to Dublin folk anyway.

Prop...big difference between Mullimgar and say Cavan,Monaghan or Longford.

Those places are bleak and without hope. At least in Mullingar, you can commute and the town is pretty good.


You cannot know these places you discuss.

Pelezico

Timing belt wrote: »

I would choose Galway over Dublin any day of the week. But that would be my personal choice if you are young and want to climb the corporate ladder it is easier to do so in Dublin as there is more opportunities

I specifically excluded Galway city but you know this.

Timing belt

Graham wrote: »

Valid, as in you're entitled to hold it. Absolutely

Valid, as in likely. I don't think so. You've take a guess, added another guess, and multiplied it by a guess.

This is based on the belief that investment funds bought property in Ireland instead of debt so the assumptions are flawed

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

Prop...big difference between Mullimgar and say Cavan,Monaghan or Longford.

Those places are bleak and without hope. At least in Mullingar, you can commute and the town is pretty good.


You cannot know these places you discuss.

I know. I’m just confused why when people go on about WFH and say why would people move to Cavan.

There’s lots of fantastic towns all over Ireland they can relocate to that aren’t in that part of Ireland.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Ok if they are all vacant and re-entering the market that tells us that 20k have done so over the past 10 years


** Note 2020 only includes Q1-Q3

Thanks. But the NTMA presentation (page 60) appears to put them on a higher level.

Link here: https://www.ntma.ie/government_bonds/Investor-Presentation-November.pdf

Edit. Actually about those figures you posted from zooming in.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I know. I’m just confused why when people go on about WFH and say why would people move to Cavan.

There’s lots of fantastic towns all over Ireland they can relocate to that aren’t in that part of Ireland.

The point being that people without a connection to these towns/areas are unlikely to pick up sticks and take kids out of school to move there.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

The point being that people without a connection to these towns/areas are unlikely to pick up sticks and take kids out of school to move there.

The people living here don’t need to move to significantly negatively impact the Dublin property market. New people just need to stop coming in IMO.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

New people just need to stop coming in IMO.

Unless we close the borders, I don't think that's a particularly likely outcome.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks. But the NTMA presentation (page 60) appears to put them on a higher level.

Link here: https://www.ntma.ie/government_bonds/Investor-Presentation-November.pdf

Edit. Actually about those figures you posted from zooming in.

Considering a lot of these properties may also fall in the category of probate we are talking about a small number in the grand scheme.

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

The point being that people without a connection to these towns/areas are unlikely to pick up sticks and take kids out of school to move there.

Of course that is true. People who have established lives in Dublin are not going to uproot that lightly. But what about those who are not established long term in Dublin?

I.e those renting and those without kids, and those people wHo are struggling with Dublin. easy for them to cast their eyes further afield even if they have no connections.

Which oddly enough is how how Wicklow, Kildare and Meath became commuter counties long before dial up internet was a thing never mind zoom.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Definitely not at least in the case of Dublin co. and commuting counties, like Kildare, Wicklow, Meath.
And overly Ireland has lower housing stocks, comparing to the similar economies.

Kildare co co recently adopted a variation to the county development plan to cut new housing targets by over 80% - what do you know about housing supply in Kildare that they don’t?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/developer-challenges-kildare-council-decision-to-cut-housing-targets-1.4318976

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Of course that is true. People who have established lives in Dublin are not going to uproot that lightly. But what about those who are not established long term in Dublin?

I.e those renting and those without kids, and those people wHo are struggling with Dublin. easy for them to cast their eyes further afield even if they have no connections.

Which oddly enough is how how Wicklow, Kildare and Meath became commuter counties long before dial up internet was a thing never mind zoom.

There is no question that there will be people who would prefer to WFH in a location outside Dublin. I am one of those individuals.... But the reality is that the majority of the work is in Dublin and there will be a requirement to be in that office x no of days a week. If you look at the majority of jobs advertised they specifically state this with very few offering WFH.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Considering a lot of these properties may also fall in the category of probate we are talking about a small number in the grand scheme.

Given that the real supply i.e. new builds + reconnections + unfinished estates being completed etc. has been about 4,000 to 5,000 per year on top of the new builds that most commentators report on, I would believe they’re overestimating the true level of demand today.

Cumulatively, these additional unreported supplies of additional housing re-entering supply each year adds up to a significant number of units over the past ten years on top of the new build figures.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Given that the real supply i.e. new builds + reconnections + unfinished estates being completed etc. has been about 4,000 to 5,000 per year on top of the new builds that most commentators report on, I would believe they’re overestimating the true level of demand today.

Cumulatively, these additional unreported supplies of additional housing re-entering supply each year adds up to a significant number of units over the past ten years on top of the new build figures.

It’s only 20k over ten years not enough to cover one year of immigration

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

It’s only 20k over ten years not enough to cover one year of immigration

More like 30k+ when unfinished estates are included.

Given that net inward migration hit a high of c.30k in 2018 and 2019, that additional supply of 30k+ residential units would house 90,000 persons (average of one couple and one child per unit).

So, this generally unreported supply has met the housing needs of 3 years worth of net inward migration.

Given that there was no positive net inward migration up to 2016, that means this generally unreported or underreported supply of housing re-entering the market has met nearly all the housing needs due to net inward migration in Ireland over the past 10 years.

And we built c. 100,000 new built units in the same timeframe on top of that to meet demand due to natural population growth.

Obviously all the above is back of the envelope calculations at this late hour so prob needs to be checked.

Ursabear

I am not sure why some people are so sceptical of the move to WFH , pretty much everyone in my work circle for the past few months - 30s is talking about it as the future of work and a few have bought houses based on it very recently.also that bit about localisation of wages pretty much is even throughout Ireland it's more for extreme differences like San Fran cost of living versus Louisiana.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

More like 30k+ when unfinished estates are included.

Given that net inward migration hit a high of c.30k in 2018 and 2019, that additional supply of 30k+ residential units would house 90,000 persons (average of one couple and one child per unit).

So, this generally unreported supply has met the housing needs of 3 years worth of net inward migration.

Given that there was no positive net inward migration up to 2016, that means this generally unreported or underreported supply of housing re-entering the market has met nearly all the housing needs due to net inward migration in Ireland over the past 10 years.

And we built c. 100,000 new built units in the same timeframe on top of that to meet demand due to natural population growth.

Obviously all the above is back of the envelope calculations at this late hour so prob needs to be checked.

your figures are not that far out



-What is interesting is the difference of 3 people per property and 2 people.
-It does not take into account where the supply and demand was (i.e. property came on line in Kerry, population increase in Dublin etc.)

Pelezico

Pelezico wrote: »

Prop...big difference between Mullimgar and say Cavan,Monaghan or Longford.

Those places are bleak and without hope. At least in Mullingar, you can commute and the town is pretty good.


You cannot know these places you discuss.

And again with those generalisations. There are plenty of young people & families living in all those areas. Personally I think Monaghan is a great town, lively, with plenty to do. It's also close enough for commuters to Dublin or Belfast, & I know people that do.
Cavan is OK, I know people that commute from there also.
Personal choice, longford is terrible, but I know people that live there & they like it.

These are quite big towns, with employment or doable commutes.

Hubertj

In relation to reconnections

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/ndc/newdwellingcompletionsq32020/

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

your figures are not that far out



-What is interesting is the difference of 3 people per property and 2 people.
-It does not take into account where the supply and demand was (i.e. property came on line in Kerry, population increase in Dublin etc.)

Excellent spreadsheet. A couple of things.

1. The reason I say an average of 3 persons is due to it could be a couple and one child, a couple and two children, just a couple or a single person. I think the average is normally put at 3 per new built residential unit as they’re normally young couples.

2. Student accommodation units. These aren’t included in either the statistics for new builds or ESB connections as the student accommodation blocks have only one connection point in general. This has been a big additional source of supply missed or generally not looked into by the analysts as well over the past number of years.

3. Given how good that spreadsheet is, as a courtesy, I won’t allude to my belief that there are tens of thousands of boom era housing stock lurking in the background about to re-enter supply for the next 48 hours.

Well done though. Excellent spreadsheet and at the very least it helps in pointing us in the right direction in relation to this ongoing debate here IMO

Graham

So what's going to change in the very near term that the above is going to impact the property market?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Geodirectory tells the same story in that there excess vacancies over the norm - I.e oversupply.

The properties are not going to disappear. And things tend to revert to the norm over time.

schmittel wrote: »

Kildare co co recently adopted a variation to the county development plan to cut new housing targets by over 80% - what do you know about housing supply in Kildare that they don’t?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/developer-challenges-kildare-council-decision-to-cut-housing-targets-1.4318976

I don't know about development plan what's the main reason for the change, it doesn't mention anything about oversupply. Thus, don't see the point to discuss something that we don't know.

And Geodirectory, doesn't show or mention any oversupply in Dublin or commuting counties.

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

So what's going to change in the very near term that the above is going to impact the property market?

Shutting down of discussion on things which may not happen in the very near term because they are irrelevant and OT in a general property market 2020 chat thread does a disservice to the thread, posters and lurkers in my opinion.

If you are buying a property next week with a 30 year mortgage I would argue that what may or may not happen over the term of that mortgage is very relevant, and certainly worth of discussion.

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

Shutting down of discussion on things which may not happen in the very near term because they are irrelevant and OT in a general property market 2020 chat thread does a disservice to the thread, posters and lurkers in my opinion.

I asked a question in a non-mod capacity. If you are unable or unwilling to answer feel free to move along.

Mod Note

if you have an issue with moderation, on-thread is not the place to discuss. You are welcome to PM mods directly or post in the appropriate feedback forum.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I don't know about development plan what's the main reason for the change, it doesn't mention anything about oversupply. Thus, don't see the point to discuss something that we don't know.

And Geodirectory, doesn't show or mention any oversupply in Dublin or commuting counties.

I'm not getting into Geodirectory again, it is my opinion that their figures if studied closely indicate areas of oversupply, and I have explained why. If you just look at the pictures then they don't. We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.

Re Kildare sure we can discuss what we do know and that is Kildare Co Co have slashed their new housing targets by 80%.

Whatever their reason for doing so you can be sure it is not because they think think there is a housing stock problem in Kildare.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Shutting down of discussion on things which may not happen in the very near term because they are irrelevant and OT in a general property market 2020 chat thread does a disservice to the thread, posters and lurkers in my opinion.

If you are buying a property next week with a 30 year mortgage I would argue that what may or may not happen over the term of that mortgage is very relevant, and certainly worth of discussion.

Are you suggesting a prospective purchaser should factor in boards discussion into their decision making?

Regarding Kildare, I don’t have an opinion on supply but what is the general track record of local authorities in relation to planning decisions and strategy over the last 20 years?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

I'm not getting into Geodirectory again, it is my opinion that their figures if studied closely indicate areas of oversupply, and I have explained why. If you just look at the pictures then they don't. We'll have to agree to disagree on that one.

Re Kildare sure we can discuss what we do know and that is Kildare Co Co have slashed their new housing targets by 80%.

Whatever their reason for doing so you can be sure it is not because they think think there is a housing stock problem in Kildare.

Fine we can agree to disagree on the opinion, but don't bring up what GeoDirectory tells us, as it doesn't tells anything about oversupply in Urban areas.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Are you suggesting a prospective purchaser should factor in boards discussion into their decision making

No I am suggesting what might happen in the medium to long term is relevant to a property purchaser buying in 2020, and thus relevant discussion.

Hubertj wrote: »

Regarding Kildare, I don’t have an opinion on supply but what is the general track record of local authorities in relation to planning decisions and strategy over the last 20 years?

Unusual around these parts!

Graham

schmittel wrote: »

No I am suggesting what might happen in the medium to long term is relevant to a property purchaser buying in 2020, and thus relevant discussion.

Mod Note

The discussion is the Property market 2020, shortly to include 2021.

If you'd like to discuss a longer term view of the property market you are welcome to start a thread.

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