Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people mistake the reason all groups (young and old) primarily come to cities these days. It's either work or college i.e. forced re-location. It's not like 50 years ago when there were no comparable services in the provincial towns. Not many people come up to Dublin on the 8th of December anymore because Dublin offers nothing that their nearest big town doesn't.

Once they're not forced to come to Dublin, they won't. Most people already have a social network in their local towns. At best, the younger people living in small villages and more remote areas in Ireland will relocate to their nearest big town and no further.

In ten years, with no requirement to live in Dublin for either college or work purposes, the population of Dublin will probably be down c. 30% at a minimum IMO.

we should keep a running tally of all this for posterity.

Property prices down up to 75% within 2 years
Dunlin population down in 10 (due in part to all college courses going online)

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

All true. But those in their 40's plus now have the very real opportunity to move back. Before, that wasn't a real possibility in many cases or it didn't occur to them that it was a real possibility. This may lead to their previous home in Dublin re-entering the market as either a rental or sale property. This leads to a further unforeseen increase in supply in the Dublin market.

It doesn't take much of an increase in supply or a reduction in demand to turn the tables on a property market or on any market.

yeah because people are dying to take their kids out of their schools and friends and move away from their own social circle,

the m11 must be backed up with people fleeing the city :pac:

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people mistake the reason all groups (young and old) primarily come to cities these days. It's either work or college i.e. forced re-location. It's not like 50 years ago when there were no comparable services in the provincial towns. Not many people come up to Dublin on the 8th of December anymore because Dublin offers nothing that their nearest big town doesn't.

Once they're not forced to come to Dublin, they won't. Most people already have a social network in their local towns. At best, the younger people living in small villages and more remote areas in Ireland will relocate to their nearest big town and no further.

In ten years, with no requirement to live in Dublin for either college or work purposes, the population of Dublin will probably be down c. 30% at a minimum IMO.

I don’t think your opinion matches reality.

Balluba

Cyrus wrote: »

yeah because people are dying to take their kids out of their schools and friends and move away from their own social circle,

the m11 must be backed up with people fleeing the city :pac:

I hope to be queuing on the M 6 rather than M11 when I am waving goodbye to Dublin

Melek

Long time lurker, first time poster.

I've been browsing this forum occasionally for the last 4-5 years. I remember back in 2016 when we were deciding to buy our first house (Dublin area) reading on here about the imminent crash in property prices that was coming down the tracks. The reasoning was different (Brexit, Trump, interest rates rising, etc) but it was the same tired old argument. Thankfully we went ahead and bought, our house hasn't really gone up or down in value since then (maybe 1 - 2 % up looking at recent PPR entries) but it doesn't matter as we're here for the long-term. The scaremongering actually made me stop and think but thankfully I saw through it for what it was, just that - scaremongering. And it seems to be happening again here but different reasoning (Brexit/Covid/Exodus to rural Ireland/etc this time). If we held off and rented from then until now (waiting for this supposed crash) by my calculations we'd have spent close to €100,000 in rent on the same property, compared to roughly €27,000 in interest payments we have made on the mortgage over those 4 years. (Not to mention the built up equity, small but a lot more than the comparable zero equity a renter would have built up). And the security of knowing we won't be turfed out next year due to a landlord "selling up".

Anyway my point is, if you're thinking about buying look at all sides of the argument. Try to evaluate valid and invalid points objectively. With the direction the world seems to be heading on multiple fronts (economically, environmentally, etc) there may never be a good time to buy. Do the calculations on rent, interest payments. Consider personal circumstances, children, schools, transport, employment status etc. Historically those who purchase property always seem to fare better over the long-term, and there's nothing to suggest any different for the future.

PropQueries

Here's an interesting take on the supposed demand/supply housing problem in Ireland:

Year Housing Stock Population Dwellings per 1,000 people

1991 1,160,249 3,525,719 329
1996 1,258,948 3,626,087 347
2002 1,460,053 3,917,203 373
2006 1,769,613 4,239,848 417
2011 1,994,845 4,588,252 435
2016 2,003,645 4,761,865 421

Hardly a housing supply problem. From a historical perspective anyway.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people mistake the reason all groups (young and old) primarily come to cities these days. It's either work or college i.e. forced re-location. It's not like 50 years ago when there were no comparable services in the provincial towns. Not many people come up to Dublin on the 8th of December anymore because Dublin offers nothing that their nearest big town doesn't.

Once they're not forced to come to Dublin, they won't. Most people already have a social network in their local towns. At best, the younger people living in small villages and more remote areas in Ireland will relocate to their nearest big town and no further.

In ten years, with no requirement to live in Dublin for either college or work purposes, the population of Dublin will probably be down c. 30% at a minimum IMO.

I think you are completely out of touch with the reason people come to Dublin from rural Ireland.

This is the reason you cannot see beyond your own arguments, because you are convinced nobody actually wants to live here. You are grossly mistaken.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

I don’t think your opinion matches reality.

Whatever about predictions, many of the arguments/points are well made and backed up by data.

There would be something really wrong if we all agreed on everything.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

I think you are completely out of touch with the reason people come to Dublin from rural Ireland.

This is the reason you cannot see beyond your own arguments, because you are convinced nobody actually wants to live here. You are grossly mistaken.

Why people come to Dublin and why they stay are two different things. People don't leave their social network back in their county to come to Dublin and start that process all over again. It takes ages for most people and many people don't succeed.

They manage to gain a social network while they are here, not before. Getting them to come to Dublin in the first place is going to be the hard part going forward as the forced re-location motive (college/work) will gradually be removed in many cases over the next ten years.

Rew

Tangentially related:
- I bought a house in 2008 for X
- Sold that house in 2015 for X-40k
- That house is Sale Agreed now and was asking X+25k and the owners are moving to the West where they are originally from.
- House is Dublin commuter belt

bureau2009

PropQueries wrote: »

I think people mistake the reason all groups (young and old) primarily come to cities these days. It's either work or college i.e. forced re-location. It's not like 50 years ago when there were no comparable services in the provincial towns. Not many people come up to Dublin on the 8th of December anymore because Dublin offers nothing that their nearest big town doesn't.

Once they're not forced to come to Dublin, they won't. Most people already have a social network in their local towns. At best, the younger people living in small villages and more remote areas in Ireland will relocate to their nearest big town and no further.

In ten years, with no requirement to live in Dublin for either college or work purposes, the population of Dublin will probably be down c. 30% at a minimum IMO.

You should work as a.............. FORTUNE TELLER

Villa05

TheSheriff wrote:

This is the reason you cannot see beyond your own arguments, because you are convinced nobody actually wants to live here. You are grossly mistaken.

I don't think anyone is saying that nobody wants to live there, rather that if given a choice some will move elsewhere, while others will feel they can have a better quality of life elsewhere as they are priced out of Dublin

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an interesting take on the supposed demand/supply housing problem in Ireland:

Year Housing Stock Population Dwellings per 1,000 people

1991 1,160,249 3,525,719 329
1996 1,258,948 3,626,087 347
2002 1,460,053 3,917,203 373
2006 1,769,613 4,239,848 417
2011 1,994,845 4,588,252 435
2016 2,003,645 4,761,865 421

Hardly a housing supply problem. From a historical perspective anyway.

No need to answer, but think.
How many kids do you have, how many kids your parents/grand-parents had.
Nowadays each kid needs its own bedroom. Wasn't an issue in the past.
You better compare Ireland with similar economies to compare the supplies.

timmyntc

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an interesting take on the supposed demand/supply housing problem in Ireland:

Year Housing Stock Population Dwellings per 1,000 people

1991 1,160,249 3,525,719 329
1996 1,258,948 3,626,087 347
2002 1,460,053 3,917,203 373
2006 1,769,613 4,239,848 417
2011 1,994,845 4,588,252 435
2016 2,003,645 4,761,865 421

Hardly a housing supply problem. From a historical perspective anyway.

As family sizes decrease, the number of dwellings per 1,000 people needed will go up. So those stats dont paint the full picture (what stats ever do?)

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Whatever about predictions, many of the arguments/points are well made and backed up by data.

There would be something really wrong if we all agreed on everything.

they're not though.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

I don't think anyone is saying that nobody wants to live there, rather that if given a choice some will move elsewhere, while others will feel they can have a better quality of life elsewhere as they are priced out of Dublin

That's a good news, but how this would impact property price outside Dublin? When demands goes up there

Cyrus

Villa05 wrote: »

Whatever about predictions, many of the arguments/points are well made and backed up by data.

There would be something really wrong if we all agreed on everything.

unfortunately the poster only has one agenda so they are taking every piece of information in a way that supports that agenda even when multiple interpretations are possible, also his predictions are based on his arguments, and the predictions are outlandish.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Why people come to Dublin and why they stay are two different things. People don't leave their social network back in their county to come to Dublin and start that process all over again. It takes ages for most people and many people don't succeed.

They manage to gain a social network while they are here, not before. Getting them to come to Dublin in the first place is going to be the hard part going forward as the forced re-location motive (college/work) will gradually be removed in many cases over the next ten years.

so what you are telling me is, that instead of being the most exciting and best years of their lives, teenageers coming to cities for college are actually only just about coping and gumming to get back their local village?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

so what you are telling me is, that instead of being the most exciting and best years of their lives, teenageers coming to cities for college are actually only just about coping and gumming to get back their local village?

Most provincial towns have all the same type of shops, restaurants, pubs, niteclubs etc. that Dublin has. The more young people that stay, the bigger that market becomes in those towns. Most provincial towns were a hive of activity in the 1990's and 2000's and most compared much better to Dublin IMO and I'm not saying that to get the rural posters here on my side. Be honest, how often do you travel into the city centre to avail of it's social scene?

Villa05

Marius34 wrote:

That's a good news, but how this would impact property price outside Dublin? When demands goes up there

The difference being is that demand is scattered rather than condensed in one location. This makes it easier to manage at a local level and harder for vested interests to influence the market through land hoarding etc.

Holiday homes could become regular homes.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

The difference being is that demand is scattered rather than condensed in one location. This makes it easier to manage at a local level and harder for vested interests to influence the market through land hoarding etc.

Holiday homes could become regular homes.

Doesn't scattered mean decrease in some places and increase in other places?
Which part of the country doesn't have demands for good homes, with good infrastructure?

hometruths

timmyntc wrote: »

As family sizes decrease, the number of dwellings per 1,000 people needed will go up. So those stats dont paint the full picture (what stats ever do?)

For sure family sizes are getting smaller and living arrangements are entirely different in 2020 compared to say 1920.

But are they really that different to say 2006?

In 2006 there was no talk of a physical housing stock shortage with 417 dwellings per 1000 people.

In 2016 there is talk of a chronic physical housing stock shortage with 421 dwellings per 1000 people.

Why? I don't get it.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Most provincial towns have all the same type of shops, restaurants, pubs, niteclubs etc. that Dublin has. The more young people that stay, the bigger that market becomes in those towns. Most provincial towns were a hive of activity in the 1990's and 2000's and most compared much better to Dublin IMO and I'm not saying that to get the rural posters here on my side. Be honest, how often do you travel into the city centre to avail of it's social scene?

no they dont, thats patently untrue, where im from originally there isnt 5 decent restaurants in the whole county (and there are 4 large towns). I work in the city centre and often have meals with colleagues in town. For my own social life im lucky to live in one of the suburbs that has a thriving restaurant & bar scene so there isnt any real reason to go into town when there are excellent facilities within a 10 minute walk.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

For sure family sizes are getting smaller and living arrangements are entirely different in 2020 compared to say 1920.

But are they really that different to say 2006?

In 2006 there was no talk of a physical housing stock shortage with 417 dwellings per 1000 people.

In 2016 there is talk of a chronic physical housing stock shortage with 421 dwellings per 1000 people.

Why? I don't get it.

Now it's around 408-412 per 1000 people. It got worst since 2016, and family size slightly decreased since 2006. So housing stock, is worst than 2006.

timmyntc

schmittel wrote: »

For sure family sizes are getting smaller and living arrangements are entirely different in 2020 compared to say 1920.

But are they really that different to say 2006?

In 2006 there was no talk of a physical housing stock shortage with 417 dwellings per 1000 people.

In 2016 there is talk of a chronic physical housing stock shortage with 421 dwellings per 1000 people.

Why? I don't get it.

In 2006, as demand outstripped supply, prices rose and rose.

It's only because now there are limits on borrowing that prices are stagnating, and we are seeing the effects of a shortage

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

Most provincial towns have all the same type of shops, restaurants, pubs, niteclubs etc. that Dublin has. The more young people that stay, the bigger that market becomes in those towns. Most provincial towns were a hive of activity in the 1990's and 2000's and most compared much better to Dublin IMO and I'm not saying that to get the rural posters here on my side. Be honest, how often do you travel into the city centre to avail of it's social scene?

One of the main reasons young people come to Dublin is to get away from prying eyes .
They don't want mammy knowing they got drunk and snogged the young fella/girl down the road
Its the freedom they crave

awec

"Sure towns have pubs and nightclubs too, they're just the same as Dublin" is the same as trying to claim that Dublin is the same as New York cause sure Dublin has pubs and clubs as well.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

One of the main reasons young people come to Dublin is to get away from prying eyes .
They don't want mammy knowing they got drunk and snogged the young fella/girl down the road
Its the freedom they crave

exactly to think that people will want to do 3rd level at home instead of going to dublin, galway, cork or limerick is daft

PropQueries

timmyntc wrote: »

In 2006, as demand outstripped supply, prices rose and rose.

It's only because now there are limits on borrowing that prices are stagnating, and we are seeing the effects of a shortage

It was proven within 18 months that demand didn't outstrip supply. It was developers sitting on unsold stock in the mistaken belief that the demand really existed and that they could wait until they got the price they wanted.

Much the same as now but with the investment funds having replaced the developers IMO.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

exactly to think that people will want to do 3rd level at home instead of going to dublin, galway, cork or limerick is daft

I think it will be more down to if their parents want to hand over €10k plus per year to get their child through college in Dublin. Given the likely fall in footfall in the city centre due to the WFH etc., there's not going to be plenty of part time jobs going to help pay for the cost of attending college in Dublin.

If the parents can save €40k plus, they will look at Dublin differently if the option to learn from home is given. If they must attend college for one or two days a week, they will lend them the family car IMO