Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

hometruths

timmyntc wrote: »

In 2006, as demand outstripped supply, prices rose and rose.

It's only because now there are limits on borrowing that prices are stagnating, and we are seeing the effects of a shortage

What you're talking about is supply available for sale. I mean physical housing stock whether it is sale or not.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I think it will be more down to if their parents want to hand over €10k plus per year to get their child through college in Dublin. Given the likely fall in footfall in the city centre due to the WFH etc., there's not going to be plenty of part time jobs going to help pay for the cost of attending college in Dublin.

If the parents can save €40k plus, they will look at Dublin differently if the option to learn from home is given. If they must attend college for one or two days a week, they will lend them the family car IMO

i disagree, most people will see the value in their kids going to university even if you dont, there maybe some fringe cases but the campuses will be full again and people will attend. To think that everyone wont leave the 2km within which they grew up for college and work is fanciful in the extreme and not something that would be good for society.

bluelamp

brisan wrote: »

One of the main reasons young people come to Dublin is to get away from prying eyes .
They don't want mammy knowing they got drunk and snogged the young fella/girl down the road
Its the freedom they crave

This... and a lot of people just enjoy city living. Its nothing to do with work in a lot of cases.

100's of pubs, restaurants, groups for every hobby / sport / interest, concerts, musicals, art galleries / museums, universities, better dating scene, close to the airport for weekends away.

In Dublins case you still have great beaches, parks and mountains right beside you - and dispite what some online commentary would make you believe, a lot of people enjoy the diversity of having people of different nationalities etc around.

Its not a perfect city by any stretch but people are making living in a city sound like prison.

I do think there will be a small drop in demand in Dublin (city), but its ridiculous to think people are only living here because of the job opportunities.

PropQueries

bluelamp wrote: »

This... and a lot of people just enjoy city living. Its nothing to do with work in a lot of cases.

100's of pubs, restaurants, groups for every hobby / sport / interest, concerts, musicals, art galleries / museums, universities, better dating scene, close to the airport for weekends away.

In Dublins case you still have great beaches, parks and mountains right beside you - and dispite what some online commentary would make you believe, a lot of people enjoy the diversity of having people of different nationalities etc around.

Its not a perfect city by any stretch but people are making living in a city sound like prison.

I do think there will be a small drop in demand in Dublin (city), but its ridiculous to think people are only living here because of the job opportunities.

I think the exact same argument could have been made between 1930 and 1990 on why all our people were travelling to London etc.

They primarily traveled to the UK for work purposes and no other reason. The vast vast majority of people are forced to come to Dublin for either college or work purposes and no other reason IMO

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

exactly to think that people will want to do 3rd level at home instead of going to dublin, galway, cork or limerick is daft

My ex is a tertiary level lecturer and my daughter is attending college. The learning from home idea is an unworkable shi​t show and everyone actually involved in the arena will want to see it extinguished as soon as possible.

Cyrus

cnocbui wrote: »

My ex is a tertiary level lecturer and my daughter is attending college. The learning from home idea is an unworkable shi​t show and everyone actually involved in the areana will want to see it extinguished as soon as possible.

as i imagined it would be, its no good for anyone.

cnocbui

The only direction house prices in Dublin are headed is up.

The UK has seen the largest house price rise in years:

Annual growth at 7.6%, the fastest rate since June 2016

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9025793/House-prices-rise-July-far-outweighs-stamp-duty-savings-Halifax-says.html

In Australia they are expecting major city price increases of between 7-12%.

Things are arguably madder there thean sedate Dublin:

A six-bedroom home in Sydney’s inner west sold for $700,000 above price expectations, despite it needing a lot of work.

The home at 12 Alviston Street, Strathfield, sold under the hammer for $4 million to a buyer who is planning to tear it down and rebuild a forever home, rather than renovate.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/families-push-prices-above-reserves-in-a-big-sydney-auction-weekend-1012971/?utm_campaign=strap-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link

Australia’s home price growth expected to be ‘brisk’ as recession ends
Rachel Wells Dec 3, 2020

Australian economists and property forecasters are predicting faster than expected growth in house prices in 2021, following news on Wednesday that Australia’s recession was technically over.

Australia’s economy grew 3.3 per cent in the September quarter, according to the latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures from the ABS.

Economists said the quarterly rise and technical end to the recession, which coincided with the easing of COVID-19-related restrictions, would give Australian consumers and home buyers further confidence in the housing market.

The announcement followed Tuesday’s CoreLogic Home Value Index that showed prices had risen in every capital city last month – the first time since the pandemic hit – with national home values up 0.8 per cent over November.


Looking forward, a new SQM Research report, released just hours after the strong GDP figures were announced, predicted capital city home prices could surge by up to 12 per cent next year, led by Perth and Sydney.

The Housing Boom and Bust Report 2021 predicted Perth home prices could rise between 8 and 12 per cent, while Sydney prices were expected to increase between 7 and 11 per cent.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/australias-home-price-growth-expected-to-be-brisk-as-recession-ends-1011850/

New Zealand is even worse:

House prices inflate at fastest level in 16 years - CoreLogic
10:36 am on 1 December 2020

House prices grew at their fastest level in 16 years in November.

Property research firm CoreLogic's house price index rose 2.1 percent last month, with the average house price hitting $769,013.

The index was more than 9 percent up on a year ago.

CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall said the market remained driven by low supply, low interest rates and strong demand, and would not slow in the near term.
...

"The ratio of housing values compared to household income has jumped from 6.2 a year ago, to 6.8 at the end of [September].

"Meanwhile the average time it takes to save for a 20 percent deposit in New Zealand is now nine years, up from 8.2 years a year ago, and the share of income dedicated towards renting is increasing as well - up from 19.8 percent in [third quarter] 2019 to 21.2 percent in the most recent reading."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/431832/house-prices-inflate-at-fastest-level-in-16-years-corelogic

There is nothing unique about the situation in Dublin or Ireland regarding FTBs. It's worse elsewhere, for them; house prices are booming in the UK, Australia and New Zealand with very mild increases in Ireland comparatively, so far.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

My ex is a tertiary level lecturer and my daughter is attending college. The learning from home idea is an unworkable shi​t show and everyone actually involved in the areana will want to see it extinguished as soon as possible.

Well maybe saving c. €50k over a four year degree in Dublin doesn't matter to you. But, it really will make parents outside Dublin take a second look at all the available options IMO

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well maybe saving c. €50k over a four year degree in Dublin doesn't matter to you. But, it really will make parents outside Dublin take a second look at all the available options IMO

this is pure conjecture.

nerrad01

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the exact same argument could have been made between 1930 and 1990 on why all our people were travelling to London etc.

They primarily traveled to the UK for work purposes and no other reason. The vast vast majority of people are forced to come to Dublin for either college or work purposes and no other reason IMO

What a ridiculous comment, i would say the vast majority of people love moving to dublin for all the multitude of reasons outlined above.

timmyntc

schmittel wrote: »

What you're talking about is supply available for sale. I mean physical housing stock whether it is sale or not.

Prices are dictated by supply available for sale.
It could well be the case that supply was trickled onto the market in 06 as it is now, but the difference now is that prices are stagnant since they are tied to income limits (3.5x income).

If prices stagnate, so will the supply for sale.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Well maybe saving c. €50k over a four year degree in Dublin doesn't matter to you. But, it really will make parents outside Dublin take a second look at all the available options IMO

It does matter to me - been there, done that. Have you children - have you paid for a college education?

If the current situation were to be become permanent, i have no doubt my ex would likely make a career change and my daughter would drop out. I think she's contemplating doing so due to the stresses imposed by the LFH regime.

It's all well and good to have naive ideas about what the current tertiary education situation is, and quite another to have real knowledge from people both on both the delivery and receiving ends.

musicfan1ie

schmittel wrote: »

For sure family sizes are getting smaller and living arrangements are entirely different in 2020 compared to say 1920.

But are they really that different to say 2006?

In 2006 there was no talk of a physical housing stock shortage with 417 dwellings per 1000 people.

In 2016 there is talk of a chronic physical housing stock shortage with 421 dwellings per 1000 people.

Why? I don't get it.

Population went from 3.5m in 1991 to 4.7m in 2016. That must be mainly driven by inward immigration as its a change of 1.2m people. They all need to be homed - 100%, so you instantly need many more houses

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

It does matter to me - been there, done that. Have you children - have you paid for a college education?

If the current situation were to be become permanent, i have no doubt my ex would likely make a career change and my daughter would drop out. I think she's contemplating doing so due to the stresses imposed by the LFH regime.

It's all well and good to have naive ideas about what the current tertiary education situation is, and quite another to have real knowledge from people both on both the delivery and receiving ends.

WFH for the tertiary sector is still early days and they will work out the bugs regarding stress etc. over the next couple of years.

Plus, the kids are at home until they attend college anyway. An extra 4 years won't make much difference to most parents. Most are genuinely upset when their kids move away.

And, anyway, aren't most kids from Dublin who attend college in Dublin already living at home while they attend college?

Are parents outside Dublin so different to Dublin parents that they all want their kids out even it costs them upwards of c. €50k?

Hubertj

yea and they could commute from kerry to dublin 3 times per week as some genius previously proposed.

very good from a mental health perspective to spend 4 years full time studying in your room. Are people really buying this as serious opinions? The sheer stupidity.......

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

WFH for the tertiary sector is still early days and they will work out the bugs regarding stress etc. over the next couple of years.

i thought you had already announced 3rd level education from home as an all round success?

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

Are people really buying this as serious opinions? The sheer stupidity.......

i think that facade slipped a few months back.

hometruths

timmyntc wrote: »

Prices are dictated by supply available for sale.
It could well be the case that supply was trickled onto the market in 06 as it is now, but the difference now is that prices are stagnant since they are tied to income limits (3.5x income).

If prices stagnate, so will the supply for sale.

Of course. But my point has nothing to do with house prices.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

yea and they could commute from kerry to dublin 3 times per week as some genius previously proposed.

very good from a mental health perspective to spend 4 years full time studying in your room. Are people really buying this as serious opinions? The sheer stupidity.......

Most kids in Kerry attend university in either Limerick or Cork. Both are about an hours drive away at a maximum from most locations in Kerry.

hometruths

musicfan1ie wrote: »

Population went from 3.5m in 1991 to 4.7m in 2016. That must be mainly driven by inward immigration as its a change of 1.2m people. They all need to be homed - 100%, so you instantly need many more houses

And as propqueries figures show, we got the many more houses between 1991 and 2016.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Most kids in Kerry attend university in either Limerick or Cork. Both are about an hours drive away at a maximum from most locations in Kerry.

You ever driven from Limerick to Kerry? Particularly Tralee or Killarney?

brisan

awec wrote: »

You ever driven from Limerick to Kerry? Particularly Tralee or Killarney?

Its grand once you don't meet a tractor or a milk lorry

timmyntc

schmittel wrote: »

Of course. But my point has nothing to do with house prices.

Your point was that in 06 we didnt notice a supply shortage as much - the reason that supply kept being made available is that the prices kept climbing, making it more attractive to sell.

Now, we have mortgage limits to stop prices spiralling out of control, and prices have stagnated. Stagnant prices means people are not as encouraged to sell, plenty will hold on hoping for a relax of mortgage lending rules, or some other way to squeeze more money out of their asset.

So in both situations the vacant housing stock could be the same, but one scenario is a shortage and the other is not (or appears not to be), and its all price driven. If you put limits on the price (lending limits) it will limit what is made available for sale.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

You ever driven from Limerick to Kerry? Particularly Tralee or Killarney?

Yes. Many times. If it's been a while for you, the road has been upgraded and it's a straight run now before and after Adare.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

WFH for the tertiary sector is still early days and they will work out the bugs regarding stress etc. over the next couple of years.

Plus, the kids are at home until they attend college anyway. An extra 4 years won't make much difference to most parents. Most are genuinely upset when their kids move away.

And, anyway, aren't most kids from Dublin who attend college in Dublin already living at home while they attend college?

Are parents outside Dublin so different to Dublin parents that they all want their kids out even it costs them upwards of c. €50k?

anyway whats the relevance of these musings to the property market in 2020?

we need to wait for the 2021 thread to start to see your projected huge price drops.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Yes. Many times. If it's been a while for you, the road has been upgraded and it's a straight run now before and after Adare.

and even at that google maps has both trips at a minimum of an hour 30 / hour 40.

hometruths

timmyntc wrote: »

Your point was that in 06 we didnt notice a supply shortage as much - the reason that supply kept being made available is that the prices kept climbing, making it more attractive to sell.

Now, we have mortgage limits to stop prices spiralling out of control, and prices have stagnated. Stagnant prices means people are not as encouraged to sell, plenty will hold on hoping for a relax of mortgage lending rules, or some other way to squeeze more money out of their asset.

So in both situations the vacant housing stock could be the same, but one scenario is a shortage and the other is not (or appears not to be), and its all price driven. If you put limits on the price (lending limits) it will limit what is made available for sale.

Apologies if I was confusing in my post - my point was about the physical housing stock that exists - however many x per 1000 population - nothing to do with current supply for sale or current sales prices.

Of course current supply for sale is almost entirely to do with current sales prices.

What I don’t get is why the talking heads were not wailing in 2006 about the fact we needed to build 50,000 houses a year for the next 10 years or else people will have nowhere to live, when they’re saying that now and the figures per 1000 are broadly similiar.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

and even at that google maps has both trips at a minimum of an hour 30 / hour 40.

1 hour 20 minutes from Killarney to Cork and 1 hour 30 minutes Tralee to Limerick. Many people commuted a similar distance to work pre covid to save the same or less.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

WFH for the tertiary sector is still early days and they will work out the bugs regarding stress etc. over the next couple of years.

Plus, the kids are at home until they attend college anyway. An extra 4 years won't make much difference to most parents. Most are genuinely upset when their kids move away.

And, anyway, aren't most kids from Dublin who attend college in Dublin already living at home while they attend college?

Are parents outside Dublin so different to Dublin parents that they all want their kids out even it costs them upwards of c. €50k?

So you don't have any kids and are shooting from the lip, as usual. Figures.

Oh, and by the way, you are beyond kidding yourself if you think the 'bugs' can just be worked out.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies if I was confusing in my post - my point was about the physical housing stock that exists - however many x per 1000 population - nothing to do with current supply for sale or current sales prices.

Of course current supply for sale is almost entirely to do with current sales prices.

What I don’t get is why the talking heads were not wailing in 2006 about the fact we needed to build 50,000 houses a year for the next 10 years or else people will have nowhere to live, when they’re saying that now and the figures per 1000 are broadly similiar.

are there more "households"? as in more single people etc as well as more families? I'm sure some expert has stats on this. Did i read there are X% more single people at older ages now....