Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

You don't understand the business model of the top Universities in Ireland, and if you did you would quickly recognize why they will not move to remote learning long term.

They don't give a sh**te above Mary and John living in Kerry who'll save a small fortune by keeping their child at home in Kerry. Irish students are a "we have to accommodate them" for top tier (within Ireland) Universities, not a "we want to make sure everyone gets an education so lets make this as cheap as possible".

They care about those students from the UAE/China who will inject circa 200K + into the university in direct fees by coming here for 4 years.

This is not going anywhere.

On to your next *find any random theory and attempt to stir up that an imminent collapse is coming*

I would agree that the universities are primarily interested in money.

However, once the real universities of the world like Harvard, Oxford etc. start setting up hubs and offering their lectures through giant screens in China, UAE etc., in order to capitalise on their brand, their parents will want Harvard, Oxford on their child’s degree and won’t be interested in UCD etc.

I think this market will gradually start drying up for Irish universities over the next few years.

If you believe this is fantasy, one of the top secondary schools in the UK, Harrow, started offering this pre-COVID to global students:

Link to bbc here: https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49720716

hometruths

cnocbui wrote: »

How does that back up his assertion:

Look up the schools in Kerry, then look at the %s of where the kids go to college when they leave school.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

I would agree that the universities are primarily interested in money.

However, once the real universities of the world like Harvard, Oxford etc. start setting up hubs and offering their lectures through giant screens in China, UAE etc., in order to capitalise on their brand, their parents will want Harvard, Oxford on their child’s degree and won’t be interested in UCD etc.

I think this market will gradually start drying up for Irish universities over the next few years.

This is peak conspiracy theory. Increase in ivy league college lectures delivered via giant screens in the eastern hemisphere = collapse of Irish house prices.

This would function to dilute the ivy league brand, it will have the opposite effect to what you are suggesting. These colleges are elitist, its their business model, its why so many are willing to move to the US ("the west") and pay huge fees. They can charge such huge fees as they keep admissions tight; they are not in the business of mass delivering lectures.

I can tell you this is fact. What you are saying is fiction.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

This is peak conspiracy theory. Increase in ivy league college lectures delivered via giant screens in the eastern hemisphere = collapse of Irish house prices.

This would function to dilute the ivy league brand, it will have the opposite effect to what you are suggesting. These colleges are elitist, its their business model, its why so many are willing to move to the US ("the west") and pay huge fees. They can charge such huge fees as they keep admissions tight; they are not in the business of mass delivering lectures.

I can tell you this is fact. What you are saying is fiction.

Well the top secondary school in the UK started offering this option to global secondary school students pre COVID.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49720716

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the top secondary school in the UK started offering this option to global secondary school students pre COVID.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49720716

Ok?

SwimClub

If we have learnt anything from Covid it's that the students absolutely hate online learning.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Well the top secondary school in the UK started offering this option to global secondary school students pre COVID.

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-49720716

We are going off topic now, and regardless, this discussion is more suited to a conspiracy theory forum.

Needless to say, there is a vast difference between a 1 year delivered course by a secondary school in the uk and an ivy league institution delivering lectures by giant screens in china.

So again, what you have said, and its proposed impact on irish property prices is pure fiction.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Plenty of data in that link to tell us a wide variety of things. But the reason I posted it is because it is telling us that "Most kids in Kerry attend university in either Limerick or Cork"

How does a map of feeder schools tell you that?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

What best college? UCC, UL and UCG are no different to UCD or Trinity. All the textbooks are the same no matter where a student attends.

So why do they want to go to Harvard?

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are going off topic now, and regardless, this discussion is more suited to a conspiracy theory forum.

Needless to say, there is a vast difference between a 1 year delivered course by a secondary school in the uk and an ivy league institution delivering lectures by giant screens in china.

So again, what you have said, and its proposed impact on irish property prices is pure fiction.

It’s not a conspiracy theory. The top schools and colleges in the UK and USA are already seriously considering this as a major revenue generating option and Harrow in the UK is already up and running with this offering.

If you don’t believe it’s an option then don’t sell that investment property you most likely have in Dublin.

My recommendation would be to sell it before most of this becomes common knowledge and there will be neither renters nor buyers for your property in 5 years time. But each to their own.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s not a conspiracy theory. The top schools and colleges in the UK and USA are already seriously considering this as a major revenue generating option and Harrow in the UK is already up and running with this offering.

If you don’t believe it’s an option then don’t sell that investment property you most likely have in Dublin.

My recommendation would be to sell it before most of this becomes common knowledge and there will be neither renters nor buyers for your property in 5 years time. But each to their own.

I worked in academia for several years. One of my closest friends is still a lecturer in Dublin.

I also don't have any investment properties (I wish I did).

Its a conspiracy theory.

You are making things up.

brisan

Timing belt wrote: »

How does a map of feeder schools tell you that?

Click on the map, click on a school and the data comes up
I clicked 2 randomly ,a CBS school and a Gaelscoil
Over 75% in both went to college in Cork ,Limerick Kerry

SwimClub

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s not a conspiracy theory. The top schools and colleges in the UK and USA are already seriously considering this as a major revenue generating option and Harrow in the UK is already up and running with this offering.

If you don’t believe it’s an option then don’t sell that investment property you most likely have in Dublin.

My recommendation would be to sell it before most of this becomes common knowledge and there will be neither renters nor buyers for your property in 5 years time. But each to their own.

Its not going to happen, we're in the middle of a massive online learning experiment internationally. Most students (and parents) hate it. Learning from a screen in the parent's kitchen? Not going to take off, the impact will be on a niche corner of the market.

Graham

Mod Note

ok folks, a reminder this is the accommodation & property forum.

Feel free to take hypothesis about the future of 3rd level education to the appropriate forum.

Do no reply to this post.

Hubertj

Not sure if this was discussed but https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/fairytale-castle-in-kerry-sold-for-4-5m-after-13-years-on-market-1.4425377

Whatever about the decor the setting is stunning. A,axing part of the world.

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

Not sure if this was discussed but https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/fairytale-castle-in-kerry-sold-for-4-5m-after-13-years-on-market-1.4425377

Whatever about the decor the setting is stunning. A,axing part of the world.

On that page as well is Gerald Kean,s house in Wicklow
On the market for 3.75 in April 2017 ,sold for 1.5 m in March this year

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Not sure if this was discussed but https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/fairytale-castle-in-kerry-sold-for-4-5m-after-13-years-on-market-1.4425377

Whatever about the decor the setting is stunning. A,axing part of the world.

WHilst this doesn't have much land it is does have the sea view.

What I think is interesting is there seems to be a fair few chunky country properties with land sold for strong money recently, many of which had been languishing for a while.

I am wondering is this an early warning sign that smart money is expecting meaningful inflation rather than just a covid induced yearn for the countryside.

Graham

Mod Note

some off-topic posts deleted. Take the discussion of 3rd level education to the appropriate forum.

Do not reply yo this post.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

WHilst this doesn't have much land it is does have the sea view.

What I think is interesting is there seems to be a fair few chunky country properties with land sold for strong money recently, many of which had been languishing for a while.

I am wondering is this an early warning sign that smart money is expecting meaningful inflation rather than just a covid induced yearn for the countryside.

Never thought about it like that. I just thought it was wealthy people looking for somewhere nice and private to have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th home.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

WHilst this doesn't have much land it is does have the sea view.

What I think is interesting is there seems to be a fair few chunky country properties with land sold for strong money recently, many of which had been languishing for a while.

I am wondering is this an early warning sign that smart money is expecting meaningful inflation rather than just a covid induced yearn for the countryside.

Probably more to do with lack of risk free investment opportunities at the moment. High Worth individuals will be paying negative rates on bank deposits, will get negative yields on bonds. I don't think it is down to meaningful inflation on the way.

Sierra Oscar

Some mad stuff happening in the UK housing market.

[URL="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/dec/07/house-prices-strong-gain-2004-five-months-halifax]UK house prices see strongest five-monthly gain since 2004[/URL]

Values are up 6.5% since June, with cost of average home rising by £3,000, says Halifax

The stamp duty holiday they introduced is utter madness.

Timing belt

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Some mad stuff happening in the UK housing market.

[URL="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/dec/07/house-prices-strong-gain-2004-five-months-halifax]UK house prices see strongest five-monthly gain since 2004[/URL]



The stamp duty holiday they introduced is utter madness.

It’s not only driven by the stamp duty holiday. The UK have had a rate cut which means cheaper mortgages and the banks are awash with cash because of QE that UK have undertaken. So they are more than willing to lend.

If it goes wrong it’s ok as they will just blame it on Brexit but in the mean time people feel more wealthy so are more likely to spend and prop up the economy. A lot of foreign investors (China/Russia) are happy to invest in London as a means of getting cash out of there home country. So all in all it has perfect conditions for prices rises but will be an issue for ftb

Sierra Oscar

Timing belt wrote: »

It’s not only driven by the stamp duty holiday. The UK have had a rate cut which means cheaper mortgages and the banks are awash with cash because of QE that UK have undertaken. So they are more than willing to lend.

If it goes wrong it’s ok as they will just blame it on Brexit but in the mean time people feel more wealthy so are more likely to spend and prop up the economy. A lot of foreign investors (China/Russia) are happy to invest in London as a means of getting cash out of there home country. So all in all it has perfect conditions for prices rises but will be an issue for ftb

Your observations on QE are astute and I'd be in agreement with your sentiments.

Worth noting that the ECB has been making extensive use of QE as a response to Covid-19. Sadly, I suspect property price rises associated with QE will not be limited to the UK. Potentially some extremely tough times ahead for first time buyers and young people in general, there will be societal upheaval in time.

An Ri rua

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Your observations on QE are astute and I'd be in agreement with your sentiments.

Worth noting that the ECB has been making extensive use of QE as a response to Covid-19. Sadly, I suspect property price rises associated with QE will not be limited to the UK. Potentially some extremely tough times ahead for first time buyers and young people in general, there will be societal upheaval in time.

Exactly. In currency terms, prices are inflating rapidly. However, in real money terms (gold), property prices have fallen across dollar, euro and pound since March. While most will not dare dabble in gold (I'm all in), now is the time and, in 6 months or 18 months, or longer, cash in and buy that property for its funny money price and pay Mr taxman his CGT in December.

Timing belt

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Your observations on QE are astute and I'd be in agreement with your sentiments.

Worth noting that the ECB has been making extensive use of QE as a response to Covid-19. Sadly, I suspect property price rises associated with QE will not be limited to the UK. Potentially some extremely tough times ahead for first time buyers and young people in general, there will be societal upheaval in time.

I don't see the same property price rises in the Irish house prices because of the central bank limit which is preventing banks from lending more. What we have in Ireland is a liquidity trap where the QE is sitting with the banks and they are unable to lend it out due to the central bank rule and the banks risk appetite.

The Irish market has seen small prices rises due to increase in disposable income from WFH which has enabled a lot of first time buyers get a deposit together and the increase in HTB which is making this sector of the market very competitive but the majority are buying new homes so it is not leading to increases up the housing chain.

My prediction for house prices in 2021 will be to remain flat unless there is financial contagion when the stock market goes pop once the economic data fails to deliver or some stock market fraud hits confidence.

Timing belt

An Ri rua wrote: »

Exactly. In currency terms, prices are inflating rapidly. However, in real money terms (gold), property prices have fallen across dollar, euro and pound since March. While most will not dare dabble in gold (I'm all in), now is the time and, in 6 months or 18 months, or longer, cash in and buy that property for its funny money price and pay Mr taxman his CGT in December.

You are correct but as we all get paid in currency and not gold we don't see it

An Ri rua

Timing belt wrote: »

You are correct but as we all get paid in currency and not gold we don't see it

We do if we invest at this end and wait. And keep converting disposable income into either allocated bullion or else physical silver. Easily disposed of. Allocated, within a few minutes on the relevant online market e.g. Bullionvault, or with physical, back via Done deal /Adverts from whence they came. Not for everyone. Plenty of risks.

Timing belt

An Ri rua wrote: »

We do if we invest at this end and wait. And keep converting disposable income into either allocated bullion or else physical silver. Easily disposed of. Allocated, within a few minutes on the relevant online market e.g. Bullionvault, or with physical, back via Done deal /Adverts from whence they came. Not for everyone. Plenty of risks.

As you say not for everyone as it’s a risky trade at the best of times. There is a lot of investors hedging with physical gold, shares in gold mines, metal ETF’s at the moment.

The stock market has got so crazy with a lot of key indicators up at 99.9 percentile based on 75 years of data which suggests it will crash pretty soon. When it does you make a killing and buy your house. It is one of the more unusual ways of financing it :-)

Villa05

Timing belt wrote:

I don't see the same property price rises in the Irish house prices because of the central bank limit which is preventing banks from lending more. What we have in Ireland is a liquidity trap where the QE is sitting with the banks and they are unable to lend it out due to the central bank rule and the banks risk appetite.

Amazing that in one of the most open economies in the world, the only thing banks will lend against is property

Can anyone guess what asset class is in an unsustainable bubble as a consequence of this?

Timing belt

Villa05 wrote: »

Amazing that in one of the most open economies in the world, the only thing banks will lend against is property

Banks will lend against a multitude of assets it is just that for majority of people the property is the only asset that they have to provide security.

Villa05 wrote: »

Can anyone guess what asset class is in an unsustainable bubble as a consequence of this?

The Stock Market as rates are so low retail investors are borrowing to invest in shares.