Irish Property Market 2020 Part 3

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

That’s based on the central bank report from December 2019:

“The paper finds that around 34,000 dwellings would be required per year until the end of the next decade assuming unchanged household formation rates. This scenario is based on net inward migration of 30,000 per annum”

What they fail to mention is that the same report states that the demand for housing from natural population growth is 18,000 per year.

So, as we’re already building more than enough units to meet demand from natural population growth, where will this net inward migration of 30,000 per year come from to create such a shortage of housing?

1. Multinationals? Are they really going to create 30,000 additional new jobs next year and every year out to 2030?

2. Tourism sector? Really?

3. Construction sector? The BPFI in your quote said we won’t be building the same number of houses next year so we don’t need more construction workers.

Did you ever stop to consider all the Irish that have Immigrated and have returned on the back of Covid.

Marius34

Villa05 wrote: »

Sorry but Is natural population growth defined as
Births minus deaths

Don't think so, I believe it's more complex than that, there could be many components for the estimates on demand side. It just that they decided to divide total demands in 3 parts: Natural Increase, Migration, Obsolescence. They can well remove Obsolescence, and add it to Natural Increase, total result would not change.
Edit. Sorry, I meant about demands due to natural population increase. Not direct answer to your question.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

They didn't fail to mention what this mean. As 34K is expected demands for housing in the coming years.
18.000 is your weird estimates, which I explained already why you can not take single component from demands from their reports, as they separate obsolescence in their report, which is not included in Natural increase.

18,000 is their estimate (not mine) if there was no net inward migration.

The link to their report is here and it’s detailed on page 11: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/vol-2019-no-14-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-(conefrey-and-staunton).pdf

That 34,000 estimate is also based on 5,000 properties becoming obsolete each and every year and needing to be replaced which many commentators have stated, even if true, wouldn’t be happening at anywhere near that level in the areas people actually want to live.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

18,000 is their estimate (not mine) if there was no net inward migration.

The link to their report is here and it’s detailed on page 11: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/vol-2019-no-14-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-(conefrey-and-staunton).pdf

That 34,000 estimate is also based on 5,000 properties becoming obsolete each and every year and needing to be replaced which many commentators have stated, even if true, wouldn’t be happening at anywhere near that level in the areas people actually want to live.

Not it's not.
How many times I need to post the same?

What do you see from this diagram, what is the demands if you exclude migration? what is the migration component?

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

Did you ever stop to consider all the Irish that have Immigrated and have returned on the back of Covid.

Does that not work both ways?

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Does that not work both ways?

yes it does but there are way more Irish returning that immigrating. Seeing as you all post links from the FT I am sure you saw the article on the Irish housing market that they published on the 27th of November stating this.

here is a link to it:
https://www.ft.com/content/6f6aaa63-654e-41d0-9462-87320597d9f5

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Not it's not.
How many times I need to post the same?

What do you see from this diagram, what is the demands if you exclude migration? what is the migration component?

As per your diagram, it’s 18,000 per year to meet the demand from natural population growth.

Obsolescence of 5,000 a year (a gross overestimate in my view and based on some report from 2014) to replace existing stock won’t happen in the cities.

They don’t seem to also factor in the number of vacant homes and the big backlog of probate sales that will re-enter supply over the next 2 years.

Graham

They also don't factor in we haven't been building enough properties to meet demand for several years now.

The clock doesn't reset at the start of the year with zero demand.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

As per your diagram, it’s 18,000 per year to meet the demand from natural population growth.

Obsolescence of 5,000 a year (a gross overestimate in my view and based on some report from 2014) to replace existing stock won’t happen in the cities.

They don’t seem to also factor in the number of vacant homes and the big backlog of probate sales that will re-enter supply over the next 2 years.

What would be the demands for new builds, if natural population growth would around 0, and net migration 0?

There are plenty of countries that has natural population growth around 0, and net migration around zero. And believe me, they still build new homes, and they don't run into massive oversupply.
You don't understand the Obsolescence meaning.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

yes it does but there are way more Irish returning that immigrating. Seeing as you all post links from the FT I am sure you saw the article on the Irish housing market that they published on the 27th of November stating this.

here is a link to it:
https://www.ft.com/content/6f6aaa63-654e-41d0-9462-87320597d9f5

According to that FT article, in the year up to April 2020: “show that 28,900 Irish nationals returned home to live and work in the year end to April 2020”

Hardly COVID time period. In the year up to April 2018, 28,400 returned. So, hasn’t really changed despite the headline grabbing figure.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

According to that FT article, in the year up to April 2020: “show that 28,900 Irish nationals returned home to live and work in the year end to April 2020”

Hardly COVID time period. In the year up to April 2018, 28,400 returned. So, hasn’t really changed despite the headline grabbing figure.

So that is 2 years when we have had 28/29k Irish return but you still think there is no inward migration.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

What would be the demands for new builds, if natural population growth would around 0, and net migration 0?

There are plenty of countries that has natural population growth around 0, and net migration around zero. And believe me, they still build new homes, and they don't run into massive oversupply.
You don't understand the Obsolescence meaning.

Maybe that’s true. But I doubt those same countries started out with a significant oversupply of units to begin with e.g. 180k census 2016 or 90k geodirectory Q2 2020.

And I’m not even counting that significant backlog of probate sales or ex. AirBnB units just waiting to re-enter the market.

And we’re still building 20,000 units this year.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

So that is 2 years when we have had 28/29k Irish return but you still think there is no inward migration.

According to the CSO: “Of the 54,900 people who emigrated from Ireland in the year to April 2019, 29,000 (52.8%) are estimated to be Irish nationals”

The Irish returning are generally cancelled out by the same number of Irish leaving each year.

Hubertj

I think the CSO and central bank analysis is fairly accurate. Allowing for a margin of error of 10% it still looks to me like supply is constrained. Do some reports also estimate the type required - 1 bed v 2 bed v houses etc. I would presume more apartments required over time due to decreasing size of average household (less kids and more single people)? As another poster mentioned earlier stronger demand for different types of accommodation.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe that’s true. But I doubt those same countries started out with a significant oversupply of units to begin with e.g. 180k census 2016 or 90k geodirectory Q2 2020.

And I’m not even counting that significant backlog of probate sales or ex. AirBnB units just waiting to re-enter the market.

And we’re still building 20,000 units this year.

Ireland has no any known larger proportion of long term vacancies, than other countries. You wrote so much and still don't understand what those vacancy numbers mean. You take short term/unknown vacancy data, and presenting like it would be long term vacant properties, that it could be brought to market. I tried to explain, but you have your own imagination.

Regardless vacancy, this is your false claim:
"18,000 is their estimate (not mine) if there was no net inward migration."
If you don't believe in obsolescence number, that's one thing. Another is giving your false claims of the report.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the CSO and central bank analysis is fairly accurate. Allowing for a margin of error of 10% it still looks to me like supply is constrained. Do some reports also estimate the type required - 1 bed v 2 bed v houses etc. I would presume more apartments required over time due to decreasing size of average household (less kids and more single people)? As another poster mentioned earlier stronger demand for different types of accommodation.

I think it looks like this to everyone bar one.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Ireland has no any known larger proportion of long term vacancies, than other countries. You wrote so much and still don't understand what those vacancy numbers mean. You take short term/unknown vacancy data, and presenting like it would be long term vacant properties, that it could be brought to market. I tried to explain, but you have your own imagination.

Regardless vacancy, this is your false claim:
"18,000 is their estimate (not mine) if there was no net inward migration."
If you don't believe in obsolescence number, that's one thing. Another is giving your false claims of the report.

This is their statement on page 11:

“Over the period 2020-2030, the estimates indicate that around 18,000 new dwellings would be required each year due to the natural increase. Migration is the second key driver of housing demand out to 2051 with the increase in population from this source accounting for over one third of the estimated new housing demand out to 2051. Our scenario assumes that 5,000 new dwellings are required each year to replace existing housing stock lost due to obsolescence based on Duffy et al. (2014).“

This is the basis of the 35,000 houses needed per annum stated in the report you linked. What am I reading wrong?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Maybe that’s true. But I doubt those same countries started out with a significant oversupply of units to begin with e.g. 180k census 2016 or 90k geodirectory Q2 2020

Mod Note

You have been warned before about going off-topic and deliberately misrepresenting data.

Neither the census or geodirectory state there is an oversupply of property.

Next occurrence is a thread ban without warning.

Do not reply to this post.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the CSO: “Of the 54,900 people who emigrated from Ireland in the year to April 2019, 29,000 (52.8%) are estimated to be Irish nationals”

The Irish returning are generally cancelled out by the same number of Irish leaving each year.

According to the CSO: Irish nationals accounted for 28,900 (33.8%) of the 85,400 immigrants to Ireland, this is the highest number of returning Irish nationals since 2007.

A High percentage of returning immigrants will be looking to purchase property which increase the demand.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

This is their statement on page 11:

“Over the period 2020-2030, the estimates indicate that around 18,000 new dwellings would be required each year due to the natural increase. Migration is the second key driver of housing demand out to 2051 with the increase in population from this source accounting for over one third of the estimated new housing demand out to 2051. Our scenario assumes that 5,000 new dwellings are required each year to replace existing housing stock lost due to obsolescence based on Duffy et al. (2014).“

This is the basis of the 35,000 houses needed per annum stated in the report you linked. What am I reading wrong?

It doesn't say anywhere that without migration demands would be only 18K.
If we exclude migration factor. It would be demands equal to 23K (18+5). Migration factor is 11K (not 16K) per 30.000 net inwards migration.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

According to the CSO: Irish nationals accounted for 28,900 (33.8%) of the 85,400 immigrants to Ireland, this is the highest number of returning Irish nationals since 2007.

A High percentage of returning immigrants will be looking to purchase property which increase the demand.

Not if the same number of Irish nationals are leaving each year.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Not if the same number of Irish nationals are leaving each year.

A lot of Irish that immigrate are young and don't own property when they leave but have made a bit of money abroad and are looking to purchase a house in Ireland and settle down once they start having kid's so yes it is a important factor as it increases demand on housing stock.

Hubertj

where are irish people going to emigrate to? UK? US? Canada? Aus? NZ? I'm not sure how many of those countries will be open to widespread immigration given the unemployment levels. More highly skilled workers could be ok.
Regarding Brexit, does this affect Irish students going to university in the UK? Or is that still ok?

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

I think it looks like this to everyone bar one.

Make that two

Mic 1972

Browney7 wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/112-erris-square-waterville-blanchardstown-dublin-15/4285522 this one sold at the start of 2019 for 225k in arguably worse condition that the one you linked. They look similar sizes too

Interesting to see what it sells for in the end

this one went sales agree a month ago for 230K
and now the same type of 2 bed apart is already going for higher



https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/80-erris-square-waterville-blanchardstown-dublin-15/4431281

Mic 1972

Smouse156 wrote: »

Shows you how useless an asking price report is!

Real data (actual sales) from CSO show a 1% overall drop and 2% in Dublin. The market is fragmented though. Commuter towns saw rises, Dublin City centre fell 4%. The top bracket (950k plus) nationally fell 4%. First time buyer range with HTB probably rose. One bed apartments suffered while 4 bed homes with gardens held up well.

Really depends on what category you are trying to buy in.

this report is based on sales prices from property register
it's evident that current prices are higher than last year



https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

where are irish people going to emigrate to? UK? US? Canada? Aus? NZ? I'm not sure how many of those countries will be open to widespread immigration given the unemployment levels. More highly skilled workers could be ok.
Regarding Brexit, does this affect Irish students going to university in the UK? Or is that still ok?

But if they stay here, where will they work?

We’ve a population just over half the size of Greater London. We don’t have the population base to create jobs internally without exporting companies like multinationals etc.

Most of our SME’s, if they do export, export primarily to the UK which may be impacted by Brexit etc.

The IDA has already pointed out that new multinational jobs over the coming few years may be impacted by the inability to have site visits this year.

And that’s before the new OECD tax reforms, the CCCTB, digital taxes etc. coming down the line very shortly.

An Ri rua

Timing belt wrote: »

As you say not for everyone as it’s a risky trade at the best of times. There is a lot of investors hedging with physical gold, shares in gold mines, metal ETF’s at the moment.

The stock market has got so crazy with a lot of key indicators up at 99.9 percentile based on 75 years of data which suggests it will crash pretty soon. When it does you make a killing and buy your house. It is one of the more unusual ways of financing it :-)

That's the plan. Did ok in 09-11 out of it but this opportunity is on a different level.

hometruths

schmittel wrote: »

Make that two

Three if you include Justin Gleeson - Director of the All Ireland Research Observatory.

His bio suggests some level of expertise:

Justin is also involved in a wide range of other projects with the International Centre for Local and Regional Development (ICLRD) as well as Europe wide spatial planning projects through ESPON and INTERREG. At present, Justin is working on research and consultancy projects with the National Planning Framework (NPF), Regional Assemblies and a number of Local Authorities across Ireland

In this report (based on analysis of the supplemental vacancy data released by the CSO) he states:

This results in Ireland having an oversupply of approximately 63k properties in 2016. When we look at this on a local authority level we can see that while many local authorities have very high levels of over-supply, a number have an under-supply of properties or have figures very close to the expected 6% base vacancy rate - South Dublin, Fingal, DLR, Kildare, Wicklow etc (Figures 2&3).

I guess we will have to wait until the next census to find out if that oversupply has been mopped up or not, which now will not take place until 2022.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Three if you include Justin Gleeson - Director of the All Ireland Research Observatory.

His bio suggests some level of expertise:



In this report (based on analysis of the supplemental vacancy data released by the CSO) he states:



I guess we will have to wait until the next census to find out if that oversupply has been mopped up or not, which now will not take place until 2022.

We looked at this months ago. I presume it also includes vacant local authority housing? Places like dolphins barn that have a lot of vacant units. Then you have the ridiculous developments in d4.
But what use is 6k empty units in Donegal...