COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Bobeagleburger

Micky 32 wrote: »

Jesus, if we kept at the current rate of infections of 7836 a day, we’d have the whole population infected in less than 2 years, over half the population in a year! We’d have certain herd immunity who’d need a vaccine! It might be quicker than the roll out lol. Yes i know that route would cause untold damage but interesting nonetheless. It means it would have to end and burn out either way.

If the links to potential organ damage weren't there, then maybe!

touts

Stephen Donnolly just on Morning Ireland.

They expect to have a combined total of 470,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of quarter 1 (i.e. end of March). He hopes they might get additional doses from new vaccines by Astrazenica and J&J.

Based on what he said and with two doses per person that's 235,000 people vaccinated by the end of March.

If that continues it will be over 4 years before the vaccine program is complete in Ireland.

stephenjmcd

Big deal for CureVac

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1346968598888148993?s=19

CSWS101

touts wrote: »

Stephen Donnolly just on Morning Ireland.

They expect to have a combined total of 470,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of quarter 1 (i.e. end of March). He hopes they might get additional doses from new vaccines by Astrazenica and J&J.

Based on what he said and with two doses per person that's 235,000 people vaccinated by the end of March.

If that continues it will be over 4 years before the vaccine program is complete in Ireland.

It's not going to continue at that rate, our current rate of vaccination is at the slowest it will be for all of 2021. We only have one vaccine approved and with limited stock. Pfizer and Moderna will be used to reduce mortalities in the elderly, high riskers and HCW. By then as you said, AZ at least should be approved along with JJ further down line. Using our current rate of vaccination to gauge how long this will take is not a fair comparison or in any way an indication of how long the process will actually take.

tippilot

touts wrote: »

Stephen Donnolly just on Morning Ireland.

They expect to have a combined total of 470,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of quarter 1 (i.e. end of March). He hopes they might get additional doses from new vaccines by Astrazenica and J&J.

Based on what he said and with two doses per person that's 235,000 people vaccinated by the end of March.

If that continues it will be over 4 years before the vaccine program is complete in Ireland.

470,000 would mean a reduction on current Pfizer only rates of supply.

Gael23

CSWS101 wrote: »

It's not going to continue at that rate, our current rate of vaccination is at the slowest it will be for all of 2021. We only have one vaccine approved and with limited stock. Pfizer and Moderna will be used to reduce mortalities in the elderly, high riskers and HCW. By then as you said, AZ at least should be approved along with JJ further down line. Using our current rate of vaccination to gauge how long this will take is not a fair comparison or in any way an indication of how long the process will actually take.

470k vaccines isnt even enough to cover the elderly

lbj666

touts wrote: »

Stephen Donnolly just on Morning Ireland.

They expect to have a combined total of 470,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines by the end of quarter 1 (i.e. end of March). He hopes they might get additional doses from new vaccines by Astrazenica and J&J.

Based on what he said and with two doses per person that's 235,000 people vaccinated by the end of March.

If that continues it will be over 4 years before the vaccine program is complete in Ireland.

More nihilism pretending to be realism, there are other vacines due to be approved but you already know that

seamus

touts wrote: »

If that continues it will be over 4 years before the vaccine program is complete in Ireland.

This observation comes up so often, I'm just going to copy the plan from [URL="file:///C:/Users/Fergal/Downloads/108854_babc7d1b-cb10-49db-8dd0-0c7408dea162%20(1).pdf"]the document[/URL];



Right now, we're at the very front edge of the initial roll-out. Vaccine supply is low, but will improve constantly over the coming weeks.

Those phases are not equal in duration. The initial roll-out is approximately 4 months. The mass ramp-up is 6-9 months, and open access is open-ended.

The most vulnerable groups (up to about group 7) will be covered in the initial roll-out. By the time we're halfway through the mass ramp-up, most day-to-day restrictions can be lifted.

Gael23

Apogee wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1338484785367408640


https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1341354445880389633

Going on this 470000 doses only does half of over 70s.

Micky 32

Gael23 wrote: »

Going on this 470000 doses only does half of over 70s.

By the autumn we’ll have as many people vaccinated that we need to. Things will be massively different.

irishguy1983

Micky 32 wrote: »

By the autumn we’ll have as many people vaccinated that we need to. Things will be massively different.

I hope you are right but I’m not as confident...

Will vaccines work against new variants....Ummmm...

We do seem to be moving slowly on vaccination but again I hope you are right...

Micky 32

irishguy1983 wrote: »

I hope you are right but I’m not as confident...

Will vaccines work against new variants....Ummmm...

We do seem to be moving slowly on vaccination but again I hope you are right...

Round and round we go....:rolleyes:

Yes they will work with the current strains, also vaccines will be tweaked as time goes on. We also don’t need everyone vaccinated to rid of the restrictions.

Gael23

irishguy1983 wrote: »

I hope you are right but I’m not as confident...

Will vaccines work against new variants....Ummmm...

We do seem to be moving slowly on vaccination but again I hope you are right...

Scientists say they will work so we can only hope they know their stuff

Micky 32

Gael23 wrote: »

Scientists say they will work so we can only hope they know their stuff

Are you sure? I thought the boards experts knew more than them.

Sweet.Science

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Big deal for CureVac

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1346968598888148993?s=19

Who are these upstarts ?

FlubberJones

Micky 32 wrote: »

By the autumn we’ll have as many people vaccinated that we need to. Things will be massively different.

So you anticipate restrictions until the latter part of the year?

Micky 32

FlubberJones wrote: »

So you anticipate restrictions until the latter part of the year?

Weighing things up It’s always been my prediction ( only an opinion) the last quarter of the year is when things truly come alive again, especially maybe travel on a plane again with confidence.

landofthetree

Micky 32 wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought the boards experts knew more than them.

They have said it's highly likely.

That havent said its 100% certain.

The WHO told us we had nothing to worry about this time last year so it's no wonder people doubt experts.

Micky 32

landofthetree wrote: »

That havent said its 100% certain.

.

Is anything in life 100% certain? Vaccines will be tweaked and improved as the year(s) progress, i wouldn’t be overly worried about it.

Sconsey

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Who are these upstarts ?

German crowd, looks like mRNA based vaccine. They just started phase 3 trials in Germany, no indication when they epect to have results. Phase 3 might be reasonable fast given the infection numbers in Europe.

https://www.curevac.com/en/newsroom/news/

Pablo Escobar

FlubberJones wrote: »

So you anticipate restrictions until the latter part of the year?

100%. But they should be decreasing from April onwards. It’s all dependent on the vaccine rollout, but the numbers are fully understandable IMO.

Water John

The vaccination train has just pulled out of Heuston station and is accelerating. It's now doing 40km/h just one kilometre from the station. Posters here are telling us it'll take over 6 hours to get to Cork.

JimmyVik

How many doses have we got in the Fridge in Ireland at the moment?

Hmmzis

landofthetree wrote: »

They have said it's highly likely.

That havent said its 100% certain.

The WHO told us we had nothing to worry about this time last year so it's no wonder people doubt experts.

The data seen so far would indicate that vaccines should still work for the SA/Brazil variants. Serum antibody response have been noted to be varying wildly between individuals on those variants, but there was no full abolishment for any one sample. Is there a reason for concern? Of course there is, the amino acid changes at 484 in the S protein have been shown to be important and they need to be closely monitored. If further changes to the RBD start abolishing a significant portion of neutralizing antibodies then it would be time to adjust the vaccines.

The thing to note here is that not all neutralizing antibodies are directed at the RBD, it's the most dominant region on the virus for them, that's for sure, but there are other places on the surface of the S protein that are neutralizing. The ones directed at the S2 part (the stalk bit, or the 'foot') do not prevent binding to cells, but prevent the virus from ever entering a cell by locking the fusion machinery in place.

Again, that is completely ignoring any other parts of our immune response, which are rather important for a disease with a lengthy incubation period:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.02.20222778v1

If you don't want to read even the abstract there, it effectively says that if there are no detectable antibodies but if there are sufficient amounts of SARS-cov-2 reactive T cells then people are still protected form the disease.


The vaccines that do not induce a T cell response (i.e. the inactivated whole virus version from China) might be in a bit more trouble here than others.

funnydoggy

This is all too exciting. We have two approved vaccines now and a third around the corner.

This current wave in Ireland is like the last push. Things are bad, will get worse but then the cavalry is coming - 3+ vaccines, better weather (moving people outdoors more), better treatments, etc.

There will be some people still hesitant to take any vaccine despite the empirical evidence but aside from some small cohort, they'll come around.

We're at the end of Karate Kid 2 where Chozen is about to beat Daniel, and then he learns the drum technique and wins the fight :pac:

is_that_so

Sconsey wrote: »

German crowd, looks like mRNA based vaccine. They just started phase 3 trials in Germany, no indication when they epect to have results. Phase 3 might be reasonable fast given the infection numbers in Europe.

https://www.curevac.com/en/newsroom/news/

They are also one of the vaccines the EU will be getting, later in the year, assuming it's approved.

Gael23

How is the AZ trial progressing?

lbj666

JimmyVik wrote: »

How many doses have we got in the Fridge in Ireland at the moment?

Before someone answers your question and is a bit more definitive.

hmmm wrote: »

I'm pretty sure I heard somewhere (was it Prime Time?) that we were not holding back doses for the 2nd shot, but that appears to have been contradicted today by the Minister "in the initial weeks we will be holding onto some stock". I don't know why we are holding anything back - short of the Pfizer plant shutting for a month it's unlikely there will be a supply interruption of significant scale.

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Prof Butler said we would be holding back some to act as a reserve stock, in case of disruption to supply lines.

Russman wrote: »

It was on Prime Time last night. Prof Butler said we were initially holding back doses for people to be sure of their second shot in the event of supply chain issues, but now that supply is more secure they will continue to hold back a small buffer but will mostly be administering shots as they arrive. Words to that effect anyway.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Likewise Prof MacCraith said last week it would only be in the first few weeks until supply chains were secured.

Ashleigh1986

Once we get all these Vaccines the best way to get it to the masses is to get all the deliveroo cyclists on board .
The speed these go out the whole country will be vaccinated in less than a week .

hynesie08

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

Once we get all these Vaccines the best way to get it to the masses is to get all the deliveroo cyclists on board .
The speed these go out the whole country will be vaccinated in less than a week .

Until you realise he's taken half the vaccine and your can of coke.....