COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

WoollyRedHat

Happydays2020 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0107/1188376-vaccine-england/

Will people reject AZ here because it is English .

I'll wash it down with a cup of Barry's.

GreeBo

landofthetree wrote: »

They have said it's highly likely.

That havent said its 100% certain.

The WHO told us we had nothing to worry about this time last year so it's no wonder people doubt experts.

Obviously it will only be 100% certain on retrospect... Unless you reckon they should be able to plan for spontaneous, random mutations?

Van.Bosch

I know some people feared a two track society for those who are vaccinated vs those who aren’t, flights etc.

Does anyone really see a situation for restrictions would be lifted for those vaccinated? I mean from an economic point of view it would be good to have people out and spending as soon as possible but I’m sure it would be a minefield. I see in Dubai once vaccinated, after 28 days you are exempt from quarantine (not quite sure what that means)

Deeper Blue

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I know some people feared a two track society for those who are vaccinated vs those who aren’t, flights etc.

Does anyone really see a situation for restrictions would be lifted for those vaccinated? I mean from an economic point of view it would be good to have people out and spending as soon as possible but I’m sure it would be a minefield. I see in Dubai once vaccinated, after 28 days you are exempt from quarantine (not quite sure what that means)

I think it's a certainty that those vaccinated will have some advantages in terms of being able to travel to certain places as well as applying for certain jobs.

Just my opinion mind

tobefrank321

Probes wrote: »

Not one person had severe Covid with the Oxford vaccine. So far it has a 100% record on that. That is a game changer.

The Oxford vaccine was calculated to be 62% effective with 2 full doses and 90% effective with half/full dose but only in UNDER 55s.

If you have evidence of 100% effectiveness for ALL age categories go ahead and provide it.

GreeBo

Sanjuro wrote: »

I have a four year old boy. Every so often, he'll ask for chicken nuggets and chips for dinner. I agree and start heating up the oven to cook the food. Three minutes later, he walks up to me and demands to know where his nugs and chips are. I tell him that they need to be cooked and I'll give them to him as soon as they're done. He'll often throw a fit which I generally laugh off. Reading a lot of the posts on this thread is like those conversations with my four year old.

Your kid is a saint compared to some in this thread!

We have the ones who don't understand acceleration but worse again are the ones who are blaming the HSE for not moving Sunday up to the middle of the week, I bet Israel could do it...

timsey tiger

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I know some people feared a two track society for those who are vaccinated vs those who aren’t, flights etc.

Does anyone really see a situation for restrictions would be lifted for those vaccinated? I mean from an economic point of view it would be good to have people out and spending as soon as possible but I’m sure it would be a minefield. I see in Dubai once vaccinated, after 28 days you are exempt from quarantine (not quite sure what that means)

I heard on Dr. Campbell youtube, series a few days ago that Israel are bringing in such a system.

It won't be happening here, I'd bet the house on it.

tobefrank321

lbj666 wrote: »

Highly flawed logic.

You are totally missing the point that those that 20% that do get the disease, if it it follows the trend of the other vacines, they would get a less severe illness than if they werent vaccinated.

Aztra zeneca trial had dramatic reduction of those infected needing hospitalisation in their trials after 2 dose.

Even after 1 dose, there was around 10 hospitalisations, only one of them was in the trial group.

Which trial are you referring to? The two full doses or the half/full one which ia undergoing a new trial and didn't complete trials in over 55s which I think you'll agree is the most imortant age category.

GreeBo

marno21 wrote: »

By the way we have ordered 2.2m from Janssen. Stored in a fridge. Single dose so 2.2m vaccinated.

If it’s anything near Pfizer efficacy wise we can rightly push on. The Janssen allocation will allow us to vaccinate nearly 3 times as many people as the Moderna allocation for example

Should be much more efficient as they can go straight to GPs or even private nurses with it, assuming the logistics of getting the right patients lined up is ready of course...

hmmm

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Oxford vaccine was calculated to be 62% effective with 2 full doses and 90% effective with half/full dose but only in UNDER 55s.

If you have evidence of 100% effectiveness for ALL age categories go ahead and provide it.

Your stats are based on old data.

The latest data which the UK used to approve Astra Zeneca's vaccine showed approximately 80% effectiveness dependent on the dosing interval. They didn't think the HD/FD FD/FD was relevant, and thought that the dosing intervals were actually causing the discrepency reported in test results. If you read back over the thread you will see the discussion of the results.

lbj666

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not for something like covid. 80% take up would be a good result but that still leaves 35% of the population not immune.
.

Not to shoot you down totally though, surveys show take up will be 85% in at risk groups and probably will improve even more once the penny drops for people.

But say 15% of at risk not jabbed, that works out around 150-200,000 still at risk. Given the mortality rate for at risk groups that is still a sizeable no. of potential deaths. So there a tricky situation until herd immunity thats hoped for. Any public restrictions to slow the potential spread through this group will be a really hard sell, and prevalence of the virus is probably gonna be rampant due to the amount of immunity in the population for a bit at least.

In reality these people will have to double down their own efforts to protect themselves which is very very hard on those unable to take a vacine. For those at risk who plain out refuse say what you like about them but the Health Service wont be saying "tough sh!t " if they end up in hospital.

timsey tiger

timsey tiger wrote: »

I heard on Dr. Campbell youtube, series a few days ago that Israel are bringing in such a system.

To be fair to the Israelis, they have lots of experience in running a two-track society; they’ll even break international law to achieve it.

Stheno

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Which trial are you referring to? The two full doses or the half/full one which ia undergoing a new trial and didn't complete trials in over 55s which I think you'll agree is the most imortant age category.

Lbj is talking about the reduction of severe cases of covid after vaccination

I.e. it reduced severe illness significantly

hmmm

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I know some people feared a two track society for those who are vaccinated vs those who aren’t, flights etc.

Does anyone really see a situation for restrictions would be lifted for those vaccinated? I mean from an economic point of view it would be good to have people out and spending as soon as possible but I’m sure it would be a minefield. I see in Dubai once vaccinated, after 28 days you are exempt from quarantine (not quite sure what that means)

I think it's going to be very hard to ask vaccinated people to keep their lives on hold, and realistically I think it's not going to happen. If you're vaccinated, I expect you're going to be more eager to do things like go on foreign holidays or eat in a restaurant.

So I think we're going to have a period of first and second-class citizens, and being low down on the list myself I've no real problem with that - that's life, and it shouldn't take too long until vaccines reach us all. It will also allow businesses to recover.

We're going to ask the vaccinated to not just throw caution to the wind and end up getting us all infected, and hopefully they can do this. Because that's the scenario where we have this "middle period" where we have lots of vaccinated acting as asymptomatic spreaders who maybe don't realise (or don't care), and that I think could be very dangerous.

tobefrank321

lbj666 wrote: »

Not to shoot you down totally though, surveys show take up will be 85% in at risk groups and probably will improve even more once the penny drops for people.

But say 15% of at risk not jabbed, that works out around 150-200,000 still at risk. Given the mortality rate for at risk groups that is still a sizeable no. of potential deaths. So there a tricky situation until herd immunity thats hoped for. Any public restrictions to slow the potential spread through this group will be a really hard sell, and prevalence of the virus is probably gonna be rampant due to the amount of immunity in the population for a bit at least.

In reality these people will have to double down their own efforts to protect themselves which is very very hard on those unable to take a vacine. For those at risk who plain out refuse say what you like about them but the Health Service wont be saying "tough sh!t " if they end up in hospital.

Take up will be high in the at risk group. It will be lower in the non at risk group.

But we know now that even in the low risk group, deaths, hospitalisations and icu admissions will occur.

Not at the same rate as the high risk group, but when you scale up the numbers under fully opened up conditions potentially still enough to put health services under strain.

lbj666

hmmm wrote: »

Your stats are based on old data.

The latest data which the UK used to approve Astra Zeneca's vaccine showed approximately 80% effectiveness dependent on the dosing interval. They didn't think the HD/FD FD/FD was relevant, and thought that the dosing intervals were actually causing the discrepency reported in test results. If you read back over the thread you will see the discussion of the results.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/949772/UKPAR_COVID_19_Vaccine_AstraZeneca_05.01.2021.pdf


Pg 53 as an example.

"Clinical efficacy
Based on the description of the study population presented with the interim analysis, the
study results are considered to support vaccine efficacy in a population at risk of severe
COVID-19 based on comorbidities. There is some uncertainty about the effects of the
vaccine in subjects over 65 years of age as this population is currently not well represented.
As good efficacy has been demonstrated in subjects with comorbidities and immunogenicity
results in the elderly population are broadly comparable to those of younger adults, there is
currently no indication of a significant loss of efficacy in this population."

castletownman

hmmm wrote: »

I think it's going to be very hard to ask vaccinated people to keep their lives on hold, and realistically I think it's not going to happen. If you're vaccinated, I expect you're going to be more eager to do things like go on foreign holidays or eat in a restaurant.

So I think we're going to have a period of first and second-class citizens, and being low down on the list myself I've no real problem with that - that's life, and it shouldn't take too long until vaccines reach us all. It will also allow businesses to recover.

We're going to ask the vaccinated to not just throw caution to the wind and end up getting us all infected, and hopefully they can do this. Because that's the scenario where we have this "middle period" where we have lots of vaccinated acting as asymptomatic spreaders who maybe don't realise (or don't care), and that I think could be very dangerous.

Genuine question: where would "covid survivors" fall into the class system? Like I am 32 and recovered from covid having thankfully suffered very little symptoms, so my age would preclude me from a vaccine for ages anyway, but since I had the illness, would I get one at all?

lbj666

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Take up will be high in the at risk group. It will be lower in the non at risk group.

But we know now that even in the low risk group, deaths, hospitalisations and icu admissions will occur.

Not at the same rate as the high risk group, but when you scale up the numbers under fully opened up conditions potentially still enough to put health services under strain.

Yup i agree, made that point many times here, although my hunch is I might have over stated it a little, new strains maybe not. Many here though, thought if we the over 65s were done we'd all be back in crowded pubs straight away.

hmmm

castletownman wrote: »

Genuine question: where would "covid survivors" fall into the class system? Like I am 32 and recovered from covid having thankfully suffered very little symptoms, so my age would preclude me from a vaccine anyway, but since I had the illness, would I get one at all?

From listening to Fauci and people like that it seems that the recommendation will be to get the vaccine, even if you've had Covid, as it will probably give more durable and longer-term protection. We'll know more over the next few months I guess.

The good news is that people who have had the illness seem to still have good protection - this was a recent study - https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/01/06/science.abf4063

And the number of confirmed re-infections are still quite low.

Probes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The Oxford vaccine was calculated to be 62% effective with 2 full doses and 90% effective with half/full dose but only in UNDER 55s.

If you have evidence of 100% effectiveness for ALL age categories go ahead and provide it.

You're quoting the effectiveness of the vaccine to prevent the disease. That is entirely separate to the fact that the vaccine prevented those who did catch it from getting severe Covid. As I said, no one in the vaccinated arm of the trial suffered from severe disease.

Charles Babbage

Cork2021 wrote: »

In English

Rolling review
The vaccine from Janssen Pharmaceutica and its American partner Johnson & Johnson is currently in the so-called rolling review, where the data from the clinical studies will be reviewed immediately after the study has ended. CEO Paul Stoffels has already told various media that the tests will be completed by the end of January, but it will then have to wait a while for approval, according to Wathion. "I don't want to put a date on it, but it will be a while before we can start the next step there."

64-year-old Belgian Noel Wathion is deputy director of the EMA. He started his professional life as a pharmacist in Hasselt and slowly rose to number two in the pharma watchdog.

There isn't much talk about the Janssen vaccine. One expects that their trials should proceed on schedule are Covid is widespread and required number in the placebo group should be reached soon enough.

Apparently they are trialling one dose, if this is approved and they have been building a stockpile then it might make a good difference.

tobefrank321

Probes wrote: »

You're quoting the effectiveness of the vaccine to prevent the disease. That is entirely separate to the fact that the vaccine prevented those who did catch it from getting severe Covid. As I said, no one in the vaccinated arm of the trial suffered from severe disease.

Well I started out talking about the Sinovac vaccine until you switched the discussion to Oxford AZ.

Reading some more on Sinovac, yes if it follows the other vaccines, it will be useful and it does appear to, although there's been some questioning of data transparancy.

Brazil badly needs a highly effective vaccine, their daily deaths particularly today are pretty grim.

Polar101

castletownman wrote: »

Genuine question: where would "covid survivors" fall into the class system? Like I am 32 and recovered from covid having thankfully suffered very little symptoms, so my age would preclude me from a vaccine for ages anyway, but since I had the illness, would I get one at all?

I don't know the answer, but so far it seems people aren't going to be split into "had covid / haven't had covid". But it's an interesting question - now we are getting loads more cases, so the "had covid" group is going to be a fairly large group. You'd still think separating every vaccination group into two additional groups might not be worth the hassle. Maybe a lot of the people who've had covid won't actually want the vaccine, because they'll think they won't need it. But any "had covids" who want it, you'd think they'll have the option.

WoollyRedHat

hmmm wrote: »

We're going to ask the vaccinated to not just throw caution to the wind and end up getting us all infected, and hopefully they can do this. Because that's the scenario where we have this "middle period" where we have lots of vaccinated acting as asymptomatic spreaders who maybe don't realise (or don't care), and that I think could be very dangerous.

I think that's why Astrazeneca may play a key role in vaccination program, if it rings true that it reduces transmission, and therefote could be used to vaccinate a certain age cohort who will be deemed more likely to relax/ let loose following vaccination.

JTMan

Azatadine wrote: »

https://news.trust.org/item/20210108022715-m5obt

Good news 8n terms of Pfizer vaccine and both UK and SA variants.

Encouraging good news.

However, Eric Tool thinks it is "limited data" and "The preprint is really limited; not much there. We need to see the B.1.1.7 with all 23 mutations and the 501Y.V2 with its 21 mutations, to take genomic interactions into account." i.e not everything tested.

Also, some other experts think some vaccines might work with 501Y.V2 but other might be less effective and further studies are due to publish soon as reported by the FT.

Also E484K (Brazil varriant) not yet tested.

Good news but not out of the woods with the risk around these 3 mutations and efficacy.

tfeldi

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I know some people feared a two track society for those who are vaccinated vs those who aren’t, flights etc.

Does anyone really see a situation for restrictions would be lifted for those vaccinated? I mean from an economic point of view it would be good to have people out and spending as soon as possible but I’m sure it would be a minefield. I see in Dubai once vaccinated, after 28 days you are exempt from quarantine (not quite sure what that means)

There is an interesting discussion on that going on in German politics and society. The conclusion is generally: there is a societal contract. The non vulnerable patiently wait for their turn to be vaccinated. But that flipside is that those already vaccinated have to wait until everyone who wants(!) to be vaccinated has been vaccinated and not get any preferential treatment in the interim. If you don't, then the patience of the non vulnerables will wear thin very quickly.

gally74

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-55566404?__twitter_impression=true

UK 200k a day from late next week.

is_that_so

Rapid Test v PCR study of 3,3000.

Rapid COVID-19 tests that trade away a degree of reliability for speed could prove a valuable public-health tool in communities that are hit hard by the disease. Rapid results permitted immediate public health action. The reduction in turn-around-time alone afforded by BinaxNOW - Abbott test (approximately one hour) as compared to an RT-PCR turnaround of 4 days could potentially eliminate four highly infectious days that would otherwise be spent out of isolation (of a typical 10)

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1890/6052342

Happydays2020

is_that_so wrote: »

Rapid Test v PCR study of 3,3000.




https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1890/6052342

Am I correct that NPHET have being somewhat sceptical of these?

is_that_so

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Am I correct that NPHET have being somewhat sceptical of these?

Yeah, they swear by PCR every time - gold standard and all that. That study suggests they could be used as an extra tool in badly hit areas.