COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Happydays2020

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, they swear by PCR every time - gold standard and all that. That study suggests they could be used as an extra tool in badly hit areas.

I think we did miss the boat on these. It was obvious 6 months ago.

is_that_so

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I think we did miss the boat on these. It was obvious 6 months ago.

Maybe but nobody could come up with a suitable approach to address the accuracy issues and they've always been looking to vaccines as the end solution.

Gerry

whats stopping the government doing a vaccine deal with a manufacturer who is not included in the eu deal?

Happydays2020

is_that_so wrote: »

Maybe but nobody could come up with a suitable approach to address the accuracy issues and they've always been looking to vaccines as the end solution.

It is water under the bridge at this point. Perhaps the move to add more experts to NPHET will be a positive.

Happydays2020

Gerry wrote: »

whats stopping the government doing a vaccine deal with a manufacturer who is not included in the eu deal?

The vaccine probably won’t have clearance in the EU.

Mark1916

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/eus-von-der-leyen-eu-has-secured-an-additional-300-million-pfizer-vaccine-doses-20210108

300m additional doses of the Pfizer vaccine have been secured by the EU.

polesheep

hmmm wrote: »

I think it's going to be very hard to ask vaccinated people to keep their lives on hold, and realistically I think it's not going to happen. If you're vaccinated, I expect you're going to be more eager to do things like go on foreign holidays or eat in a restaurant.

So I think we're going to have a period of first and second-class citizens, and being low down on the list myself I've no real problem with that - that's life, and it shouldn't take too long until vaccines reach us all. It will also allow businesses to recover.

We're going to ask the vaccinated to not just throw caution to the wind and end up getting us all infected, and hopefully they can do this. Because that's the scenario where we have this "middle period" where we have lots of vaccinated acting as asymptomatic spreaders who maybe don't realise (or don't care), and that I think could be very dangerous.

That is a staggeringly hypocritical comment. You have never had any issue expecting young, healthy people to put their lives on hold. Do you honestly believe that those who never felt at risk but agreed to be restricted to protect the vulnerable are now going to further restrict while the vulnerable get on with life?

There will not be a first and second-class scenario during the vaccine roll out, no matter how much you would like one.

muddypuppy

is_that_so wrote: »

Maybe but nobody could come up with a suitable approach to address the accuracy issues and they've always been looking to vaccines as the end solution.

From what I see in other countries, you can use a rapid test in situations where otherwise you would not get a test at all. For example if you were a close contact but won't be getting a test to not "steal" capacity (like in Ireland at the moment), as a quick way to test yourself in case you want to visit parents or similar (when you can), and as a cheap and easy test for traveling.
As a personal example, my nephew in Italy had a positive case in his class, so they tested the whole class with rapid tests.

When a quick test is positive, you certify it by taking a PCR test afterwards. (of course false positive are a possibility, which is why you'd use a rapid test only when you would not do any test at all).

Hmmzis

JTMan wrote: »

Encouraging good news.

However, Eric Tool thinks it is "limited data" and "The preprint is really limited; not much there. We need to see the B.1.1.7 with all 23 mutations and the 501Y.V2 with its 21 mutations, to take genomic interactions into account." i.e not everything tested.

Also, some other experts think some vaccines might work with 501Y.V2 but other might be less effective and further studies are due to publish soon as reported by the FT.

Also E484K (Brazil varriant) not yet tested.

Good news but not out of the woods with the risk around these 3 mutations and efficacy.

Looking at that graph in Figure 1 one could be forgiven for thinking the mutant is actually more susceptible to neutralization that the original version. All the lines go up in the mutant assay (with one exception), some have a two step jump even.

It's actually a very interesting data point, gets me thinking. The 501 residue is in a very important place in the RBD - in one of the binding loops. That loop is responsible for a large fraction of the high binding affinity of the RBD to ACE2. In essence that would mean the binding loop has to match the ACE2 residues quite well to achieve that. If an antibody is to interfere with that it needs to match the ACE2 binding residues quite well. If a residue change in the RBD increases binding affinity to ACE2 it might have a good chance of increasing also the affinity to the antibody.

The 484 residue in the RBD in this regard is a bit more puzzling, given the above. The lysine (K) substitution there has not been reported to increase binding affinity by any appreciable amounts, so the antibody binding loss is a bit unexpected in that regard. Here the acidic to basic change might be the driver for some other interaction changes - shape of the loop causing the residue to make contact with a different nearby ACE2 residue that's acidic.

It's really me just pondering about, if someone has more of an insight into AA interactions it would be great to hear some comments about it.

stephenjmcd

Deal done for 300m more doses of Pfizer & BioNTech, delivery to begin in Q2.

Also interesting line from the EU statement

"Other vaccines are expected to be approved soon. "

Have to assume they are referring AstraZeneca/Oxford here following the reports yesterday evening that things were now on track for the coming weeks.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1347480795997470721?s=19

AdamD

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Deal done for 300m more doses of Pfizer & BioNTech, delivery to begin in Q2.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1347480795997470721?s=19

Delivery of the first 75 million doses of the new order is expected to be in the second quarter of this year, with the rest to follow in the third and fourth quarters.

Going by the 1% allocation that's 750,000 additional doses for Ireland in Q2

lbj666

polesheep wrote: »

That is a staggeringly hypocritical comment. You have never had any issue expecting young, healthy people to put their lives on hold. Do you honestly believe that those who never felt at risk but agreed to be restricted to protect the vulnerable are now going to further restrict while the vulnerable get on with life?

There will not be a first and second-class scenario during the vaccine roll out, no matter how much you would like one.

Its a bit ridiculous to judge a posters view on what might happen as what they hope to happen.

Edit: just to expand

The point is that there is going to be a very tricky transition period where some at risk will be immunised and they and those close to them (ie. Young healthy people ) will be adamant about getting on with there lives while those at risk who arent immunised yet and those close to them can't.
So one portion is going to be less compliant with what ever restrictions are still about , fueling transmission while the other portion will have to double down on their efforts to protect themselves and those close til they are immunised. That's a segregated society, and not nessecarily by old vs young

Sweet.Science

Does that mean they will no longer have to be conservative with the 1st batch ?

Millypain

Yesterdays big headline of 12,000 already vaccinated in Ireland does'nt give much hope. 12000 in 7 days equates to almost 5years before the country as a whole is vaccinated. So much for a return to normality.

zuutroy

Let's make up a drinking game where every time someone posts a linear extrapolation based on current vaccination rates, we all take a shot. At least we'll be drunk enough, quick enough to not be able to read them anymore.

is_that_so

Millypain wrote: »

Yesterdays big headline of 12,000 already vaccinated in Ireland does'nt give much hope. 12000 in 7 days equates to almost 5years before the country as a whole is vaccinated. So much for a return to normality.

It's very early days and it's 15,314 to be precise and an aim of 35,000 by the end of Sunday. We know that we will have about 40K doses of Pfizer into February. Moderna should add another 10K a week and if we are up to 4 vaccines by then we'll be looking at 100K a week and more.

gally74

Best tracker out there

Denmark part of the EU have done 4X what we have done per head of population!!!

Time line of approvals at the bottom too,

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?srnd=premium-europe

ArmaniJeanss

gally74 wrote: »

Best tracker out there

Denmark part of the EU have done 4X what we have done per head of population!!!

Time line of approvals at the bottom too,

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?srnd=premium-europe

So we've done more per head of population than many EU countries (Greece, Austria, Finland, Slovakia, France) and less than others.
Or is Denmark the only comparison allowed all of a sudden?

is_that_so

gally74 wrote: »

Best tracker out there

Denmark part of the EU have done 4X what we have done per head of population!!!

Time line of approvals at the bottom too,

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/?srnd=premium-europe

You're snugly tucked into your niche here I see!

revelman

AdamD wrote: »

Going by the 1% allocation that's 750,000 additional doses for Ireland in Q2

From Commission statement:

"The additional doses will be delivered starting in the second quarter of 2021."

We will be doing well if everyone (who wants to be vaccinated) is vaccinated by the next Winter season (notwithstanding AZ vaccine rollout).

gally74

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

So we've done more per head of population than many EU countries (Greece, Austria, Finland, Slovakia, France) and less than others.
Or is Denmark the only comparison allowed all of a sudden?

no, but if you aim to be middle of the pack thats where youll end up,

Why wouldny we aim to be No 1 in Europe,

My point is the have the same supply as us, Id like to see all europe at Denmarks level.... it not an us and them thing,

If gov's dont get their **** together and create the pressure back on the supply?? then this just drags on,

If they get the mass programs up and running it creats the need, We have 700K people out of work in this country.

Boris actually spoke well on the vaccine and showed some leadership, admitted how difficult it will be but hes going for it,

In these dark days of Feb if mass centers were being setup it will give a whole load of people home, and tease out other issues

gally74

is_that_so wrote: »

You're snugly tucked into your niche here I see!

Im missing that? actually its 5X

JMNolan

zuutroy wrote: »

Let's make up a drinking game where every time someone posts a linear extrapolation based on current vaccination rates, we all take a shot. At least we'll be drunk enough, quick enough to not be able to read them anymore.

I agree that this extrapolation is wrong but what precisely is the governments plan to scale up vaccinations? Is it mass vaccination centers? GPs? Pharmacists? Where is the plan on the web?

is_that_so

JMNolan wrote: »

I agree that this extrapolation is wrong but what precisely is the governments plan to scale up vaccinations? Is it mass vaccination centers? GPs? Pharmacists? Where is the plan on the web?

You need to sharpen up your searching skills!

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/bf337-covid-19-vaccination-strategy-and-implementation-plan/

funnydoggy

zuutroy wrote: »

Let's make up a drinking game where every time someone posts a linear extrapolation based on current vaccination rates, we all take a shot. At least we'll be drunk enough, quick enough to not be able to read them anymore.

By the time we're recovered we'll have herd immunity in the country :pac:

Deenie78

Some of the regular posters on here have the patience of a saint for the way they constantly respond to the same points/questions from new posters who jump in. Would it be so hard for them to read back a few pages to see if their question/point has already been addressed?!

Anyway what I'm trying to say is that I'm really grateful for the the likes of Stephenjmcd, Is_that_so, Seamus, ACE, Hmmm, Hmmmiz, Micky32 (and many more) for their balanced, calm and informative responses and for keeping hope alive (for me anyway!) that things are going to turn around!

snotboogie

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Deal done for 300m more doses of Pfizer & BioNTech, delivery to begin in Q2.

Also interesting line from the EU statement

"Other vaccines are expected to be approved soon. "

Have to assume they are referring AstraZeneca/Oxford here following the reports yesterday evening that things were now on track for the coming weeks.

And Janssen, the EU have made an absolutely huge bet on them, single dose vaccine, initial results expected soon. They have bought 200 million with an option for another 200 million. If the single dose is effective the EU will have effectively double the capacity with Janssen than what we will have with AstraZeneca.

celt262

snotboogie wrote: »

And Janssen, the EU have made an absolutely huge bet on them, single dose vaccine, initial results expected soon. They have bought 200 million with an option for another 200 million. If the single dose is effective the EU will have effectively double the capacity with Janssen than what we will have with AstraZeneca.

Yes single does is the big game changer it will be lead to the end in sight a lot quicker.

revelman

revelman wrote: »

From Commission statement:

"The additional doses will be delivered starting in the second quarter of 2021."

We will be doing well if everyone (who wants to be vaccinated) is vaccinated by the next Winter season (notwithstanding AZ vaccine rollout).

And Moderna and Janssen

funnydoggy

Millypain wrote: »

Yesterdays big headline of 12,000 already vaccinated in Ireland does'nt give much hope. 12000 in 7 days equates to almost 5years before the country as a whole is vaccinated. So much for a return to normality.

Welcome to the thread, you have a lot of reading to do.