COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

A million vaccines a month. Where is he getting that figure? https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0110/1188724-covid19-ireland/

It's here too, we have a total of 15m on order via the EU.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/millions-of-covid-19-vaccine-doses-to-be-available-monthly-in-second-half-of-year-1.4453250

irishgeo

Cork2021 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1348289309049319425?s=21

so irelands population 4.9m
unders 18s 1.6m
Leaves 3.3m to be vaccinated, 696 thousand people who were aged 65 or over in the Republic of Ireland, compared with 1.2 million 45 to 64 year old's, almost 1.4 million 25 to 44 year old's.

I am curious if we need 50% of the population or 50% of the people to be vaccinated.

rough guess of vaccines roll out.
40k a week in Jan 160,000
50k a week in Feb 200,000 Moderna on Stream
100k a week in March 400k Oxford on Stream
100k a week in April 400k
1.1,Million by the end of April = almost 50% of population over 18.

marno21

irishgeo wrote: »

so irelands population 4.9m
unders 18s 1.6m
Leaves 3.3m to be vaccinated, 696 thousand people who were aged 65 or over in the Republic of Ireland, compared with 1.2 million 45 to 64 year old's, almost 1.4 million 25 to 44 year old's.

I am curious if we need 50% of the population or 50% of the people to be vaccinated.

rough guess of vaccines roll out.
40k a week in Jan 160,000
50k a week in Feb 200,000 Moderna on Stream
100k a week in March 400k Oxford on Stream
100k a week in April 400k
1.1,Million by the end of April = almost 50% of population over 18.

We should have Janssen coming online during that time too. If it does work out as a 1 shot vaccine it’ll help even more.

Water John

IWT it will go closer to 200K per week.

lbj666

irishgeo wrote: »

so irelands population 4.9m
unders 18s 1.6m
Leaves 3.3m to be vaccinated, 696 thousand people who were aged 65 or over in the Republic of Ireland, compared with 1.2 million 45 to 64 year old's, almost 1.4 million 25 to 44 year old's.

I am curious if we need 50% of the population or 50% of the people to be vaccinated.

rough guess of vaccines roll out.
40k a week in Jan 160,000
50k a week in Feb 200,000 Moderna on Stream
100k a week in March 400k Oxford on Stream
100k a week in April 400k
1.1,Million by the end of April = almost 50% of population over 18.

There seems to be a trend of suppliers delivering or committing to deliver 2%ish of their deal a week.

Az-oxford have promised 2m (2%) each week to the UK although they are only at 500k at the min.
Pfizer here at the min is around that, moderna is less but hopefully they'll likely ramp up.

So including Pfizer (and their new deal), Moderna,AZ, JJ
That's 10.8m in total x 2%. = 216k a week, allow for more ramp up of production and maybe good news from curevac and novavac and 1m jabs a month is very plausible. It's good to see Paul Reid not downplay potential numbers.

There's no point scrutinising suppliers for more at that point, all eyes will definitely be on whether rollout out can keep pace.

Edit. I'm assuming Sanofi GSK is a good bit off still

irishgeo

lbj666 wrote: »

There seems to be a trend of suppliers delivering or committing to deliver 2%ish of their deal a week.

Az-oxford have promised 2m (2%) each week to the UK although they are only at 500k at the min.
Pfizer here at the min is around that, moderna is less but hopefully they'll likely ramp up.

So including Pfizer (and their new deal), Moderna,AZ, JJ
That's 10.8m in total x 2%. = 216k a week, allow for more ramp up of production and maybe good news from curevac and novavac and 1m jabs a month is very plausible. It's good to see Paul Reid not downplay potential numbers.

There's no point scrutinising suppliers for more at that point, all eyes will definitely be on whether rollout out can keep pace.

Edit. I'm assuming Sanofi GSK is a good bit off still

We would done by the end of april at that pace.

lbj666

irishgeo wrote: »

We would done by the end of april at that pace.

Well its unlikely that it will have ramped up to that number by march end, a lot has to fall into place and tranche 2 of the Pfizer deal isnt til Q2.

Edit: and you are forgetting about the 2nd dose.

timsey tiger

Marhay70 wrote: »

But did it have any beneficial effect?

All accounts would indicate that it would. However, should be split evenly between vaccine and control groups so no impact on the trial results.

Water John

The pace would be through April-July.

irishgeo

lbj666 wrote: »

Well its unlikely that it will have ramped up to that number by march end, a lot has to fall into place and tranche 2 of the Pfizer deal isnt til Q2.

Edit: and you are forgetting about the 2nd dose.

I am.

Sweet.Science

Stupid question. But if more vaccines will be rolled out in a few months why not give one dose for now and then when more are here give the 2 doses ?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Stupid question. But if more vaccines will be rolled out in a few months why not give one dose for now and then when more are here give the 2 doses ?

First of all there's been no trials on if the first and second dose offer protection if they are given more than 42 days apart.

Secondly there's no trials to see if there's any benefit from taking a dose of one vaccine and another dose of a different vaccine.

Louche Lad

Hope the mods don't mind me asking a question which has no doubt been asked and answered before in this thread, but 259 pages is too much to read through.

What is the procedure for notifying someone of when/where they'll be vaccinated? Does their GP send them a letter/text/email giving them an appointment, or do they have to contact their GP first, or something else? I'm asking on behalf of someone in their mid-80s.

Edit: I've now just discovered here it says "You do not need to apply or register to get the vaccine. We will let you know when it's your turn to get the COVID-19 vaccine through advertising or an invitation." I had been looking through various gov.ie and hse.ie pages without success. So he just waits for a letter or something?

Water John

Louche Lad wrote: »

Hope the mods don't mind me asking a question which has no doubt been asked and answered before in this thread, but 259 pages is too much to read through.

What is the procedure for notifying someone of when/where they'll be vaccinated? Does their GP send them a letter/text/email giving them an appointment, or do they have to contact their GP first, or something else? I'm asking on behalf of someone in their mid-80s.

TMK hasn't been publicised yet.

snotboogie

marno21 wrote: »

We should have Janssen coming online during that time too. If it does work out as a 1 shot vaccine it’ll help even more.

This. I'm shocked at the lack of focus on Janssen. The EU has 400 million on order, potentially a single shot vaccine, European based company... When we get back to back to normal largely depends on if and when Janssen gets approved, how effective one dose is and how fast it gets rolled out. If there are positive answers to all of those questions we should be past restrictions in the early summer, if any are not I think we'll have restrictions well into Q4.

Jim_Hodge

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

We're already falling behind next week's vaccine target and apparently those in charge of the vaccination program have still not explained the law of thermodynamics, what are they doing, it's scandalous.

Genuinely intrigued as to which of the laws of thermodynamics you think fits and how?

Le Bruise

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Genuinely intrigued as to which of the laws of thermodynamics you think fits and how?

Twas sarcasm I believe!:)

Jim_Hodge

Le Bruise wrote: »

Twas sarcasm I believe!:)

Poor attempt then so.

Jim_Hodge

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Genuinely intrigued as to which of the laws of thermodynamics you think fits and how?

Entropy according the second law is ultimately what results in chemical decay in the mRNA which requires the cold chain to slow the process

CIARAN_BOYLE

Louche Lad wrote: »

Hope the mods don't mind me asking a question which has no doubt been asked and answered before in this thread, but 259 pages is too much to read through.

What is the procedure for notifying someone of when/where they'll be vaccinated? Does their GP send them a letter/text/email giving them an appointment, or do they have to contact their GP first, or something else? I'm asking on behalf of someone in their mid-80s.

Edit: I've now just discovered here it says "You do not need to apply or register to get the vaccine. We will let you know when it's your turn to get the COVID-19 vaccine through advertising or an invitation." I had been looking through various gov.ie and hse.ie pages without success. So he just waits for a letter or something?

When they are vaccinating people of that age outside a nursing home setting it will be announced how they get appointments.

Water John

snotboogie wrote: »

This. I'm shocked at the lack of focus on Janssen. The EU has 400 million on order, potentially a single shot vaccine, European based company... When we get back to back to normal largely depends on if and when Janssen gets approved, how effective one dose is and how fast it gets rolled out. If there are positive answers to all of those questions we should be past restrictions in the early summer, if any are not I think we'll have restrictions well into Q4.

Oxford will also be one to be used on a broader basis, esp if they go with the the week gap between vaccines.

CIARAN_BOYLE

snotboogie wrote: »

This. I'm shocked at the lack of focus on Janssen. The EU has 400 million on order, potentially a single shot vaccine, European based company... When we get back to back to normal largely depends on if and when Janssen gets approved, how effective one dose is and how fast it gets rolled out. If there are positive answers to all of those questions we should be past restrictions in the early summer, if any are not I think we'll have restrictions well into Q4.

People will get excited when there is interim results.

So far we haven't so it's hard to be excited. Sometime in January we will get an interim results so we can start getting excited then.

Stark

snotboogie wrote: »

This. I'm shocked at the lack of focus on Janssen. The EU has 400 million on order, potentially a single shot vaccine, European based company... When we get back to back to normal largely depends on if and when Janssen gets approved, how effective one dose is and how fast it gets rolled out. If there are positive answers to all of those questions we should be past restrictions in the early summer, if any are not I think we'll have restrictions well into Q4.

Not sure if it'll work out as a 1-shot. Expectations at the time they started development were a 70% effective vaccine would be awesomeness, expectations have shot up since then. I believe they started trialling a 2-shot regimen once the Pfizer/Moderna results came out.

Not that having a vaccine that's 70% effective after the first shot isn't useful in its own right, especially if we get hit by supply shortages, people fail to show up for their second appointment etc.

Wesekn.

I presume there's the plans to streamline the administering of the vaccine at pharmacys and GP surgeries

Online booking and time slots

Last thing GPs and pharmacists need is the fone lines getting clogged when it starts

Le Bruise

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

People will get excited when there is interim results.

So far we haven't so it's hard to be excited. Sometime in January we will get an interim results so we can start getting excited then.

Unless I’m mistaken, the concern is that they’ve now started trialing the two doses as well....pessimistic reading into that would be the one dose wasn’t getting strong enough results?! Hopefully nothing to worry about and just ticking boxes. The one dose would be a game changer!

Edit: what Stark said!

ShineOn7

UK

More than 200,000 people are currently getting a COVID-19 jab every day and the government is on course to reach its target of two million vaccinations a week.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-more-than-200-000-coronavirus-jabs-a-day-as-uk-on-course-to-meet-vaccination-target-12183970

MerlinSouthDub

Le Bruise wrote: »

Unless I’m mistaken, the concern is that they’ve now started trialing the two doses as well....pessimistic reading into that would be the one dose wasn’t getting strong enough results?! Hopefully nothing to worry about and just ticking boxes. The one dose would be a game changer!

Edit: what Stark said!

They would not have had data on the first trial when they started the second trial. One dose with, say, 70% efficacy would be good. I guess there might be more question marks on how long protection from a 1 dose vaccine would last.

Anyway, we should get results in January. Novavax might read out in January also and we might have the AstraZeneca US data too.

snotboogie

Just seen that China updated their vaccine stats and have only vaccinated 9 million. At current pace the US will overtake them in absolute numbers early next week. With the virus picking up steam in China and many other Asian countries like Japan and Thailand, I wonder will the West finish stronger in this pandemic. Especially when it looks like no East Asian country has vaccinated at any scale, except China.

ShineOn7

https://twitter.com/peterdonaghy/status/1348034214311190528

irishgeo

Wesekn. wrote: »

I presume there's the plans to streamline the administering of the vaccine at pharmacys and GP surgeries

Online booking and time slots

Last thing GPs and pharmacists need is the fone lines getting clogged when it starts

im pretty sure its going to be large vaccination centres and youll be given a time and be expected to show up.