COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Gael23

700k to be vaccinated by end of March according to Donnelly
Should be double that if AZ comes along no?

is_that_so

D9Male wrote: »

Are any trials on children planned?

Here you go. Moderna, down to 12 year olds. Be a good while for data.


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/covid-vaccine-moderna-doesnt-expect-data-for-young-children-this-year.html

froog

froog wrote: »

12th in the entire world. That should shut a lot of people up.

Ahead of Russia, who "approved" their own vaccine 3 months ago

seamus

KrustyUCC wrote: »

That's true

Kids are at the back of the line afaik?

Yeah kids aren't even really in line for this until we have data.

We may never vaccinate kids, instead adding it to the schedule to be done at 16.

Russman

Gael23 wrote: »

700k to be vaccinated by end of March according to Donnelly
Should be double that if AZ comes along no?

I think Donnelly mentioned it was based on our assumed allocation from AZ.

Gael23

Russman wrote: »

I think Donnelly mentioned it was based on our assumed allocation from AZ.

Yes but with Pfizer and Moderna as well 700k in 3 months seems exceptionally low.

ACitizenErased

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Are GPs not being vaccinated? They were vaccinating GPs in Cork last weekend it was on the news?
https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1347913652758724608?s=21

We get it, isn't Cork great!


(great to see by the way)

iamwhoiam

is_that_so wrote: »

One GP with a feisty opinion! Wish media would stop digging these people up. If you have an issue go to people who can fix it, rather than venting. Primary target for these few weeks is care homes. They'll get to him.

I think he has a very valid point . If GP’s are expecting in the near future to vaccinate patients then we need GP’s to be well and working at full capacity

Russman

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes but with Pfizer and Moderna as well 700k in 3 months seems exceptionally low.

Here's his quote....
Our plan is based on vaccines ordered from Pfizer & Moderna as well as our estimated allocation from Astra Zeneca, which must be approved by the regulator. We are working on the basis of having 1.4 million + vaccines by the end of March.

1.4m jabs seems pretty decent for 3 months I think. Probably 100k per week ish, on the basis of say 14 weeks.

ixoy

Russman wrote: »

Here's his quote....
Our plan is based on vaccines ordered from Pfizer & Moderna as well as our estimated allocation from Astra Zeneca, which must be approved by the regulator. We are working on the basis of having 1.4 million + vaccines by the end of March.

Maybe I'm missing something here but since AZ is a single dose, why would it be 700k vaccinated with 1.4m doses that include AZ?

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes but with Pfizer and Moderna as well 700k in 3 months seems exceptionally low.

Its higher than initial estimates which had us getting 40k Pfizer and 10k Moderna per week for the first few months. At 2 doses each, thats nowhere near 700k. Supply chains improving revising estimates up all the time. Its now getting to the stage where I would see everyone down to group 10 getting it by April

Stheno

ixoy wrote: »

Maybe I'm missing something here but since AZ is a single dose, why would it be 700k vaccinated with 1.4m doses that include AZ?

AZ is double dose
Jansen is single dose

Gael23

Deleted User wrote: »

Its higher than initial estimates which had us getting 40k Pfizer and 10k Moderna per week for the first few months. At 2 doses each, thats nowhere near 700k. Supply chains improving revising estimates up all the time. Its now getting to the stage where I would see everyone down to group 10 getting it by April

Not at the pace Donnelly is suggesting

is_that_so

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I think he has a very valid point . If GP’s are expecting in the near future to vaccinate patients then we need GP’s to be well and working at full capacity

He has a point of sorts. I'd wonder what made him or other GPs suddenly a much higher risk right at this very moment. This phase is going to be slow on account of supplies and hospitals will be first priorities in terms of HCWs but they will get to others soon enough. Moderna is now on its way to us.

Russman

Deleted User wrote: »

Its higher than initial estimates which had us getting 40k Pfizer and 10k Moderna per week for the first few months. At 2 doses each, thats nowhere near 700k. Supply chains improving revising estimates up all the time. Its now getting to the stage where I would see everyone down to group 10 getting it by April

Yeah, given the start we had, if he's accurate with 1.4m doses, the later weeks in Feb and Mar would need to be well above 100k to make up the total. If we then continue at that increased rate, we'd be making exceptional progress IMO.

Edit
Didn't MacCraith suggest 500k per month by mid summer ? I think I read that somewhere. Open to correction.

eoinbn

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes but with Pfizer and Moderna as well 700k in 3 months seems exceptionally low.

Pfizer/BioNtech will be ramping up production in next month. In the first 8 weeks they will deliver around 360k doses - this might be a bit higher depending on when the new plant comes online. In March they should be able to deliver ~400k+ and hopefully 600k+ in April.

snowcat

Pfizer are vaccinating all their Irish employees working in factories. 3k. These are not in the HSE figures. It will be interesting to see how that goes. Will they still have to wear masks, social distance in work. Can they have a work party? Can they go to the pubs with the old people when they are all vaccinated..Interesting.. when all the over 65's are vaccinated will they still have to obey all the Covid measures?

Miike

snowcat wrote: »

Pfizer are vaccinating all their Irish employees working in factories. 3k. These are not in the HSE figures. It will be interesting to see how that goes. Will they still have to wear masks, social distance in work. Can they have a work party? Can they go to the pubs with the old people when they are all vaccinated..Interesting.. when all the over 65's are vaccinated will they still have to obey all the Covid measures?

They will all still need to social distance, wear masks and follow all the usual public health advice. We do not know if this vaccine stops you transmitting the virus. We only have data demonstrating prevention of severe disease.

Gael23

snowcat wrote: »

Pfizer are vaccinating all their Irish employees working in factories. 3k. These are not in the HSE figures. It will be interesting to see how that goes. Will they still have to wear masks, social distance in work. Can they have a work party? Can they go to the pubs with the old people when they are all vaccinated..Interesting.. when all the over 65's are vaccinated will they still have to obey all the Covid measures?

Yes heard that about Pfizer.
The problem is when people are vaccinated they won’t obey restrictions

lbj666

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

This is France's vaccine timeline, so I assume we are extrapolate it to us based on proportion of population

Ireland (100k Doses) per month December January February March April May June
Pfizer 37* 155.4 177.6 296 370 444 444
Moderna* 7.4 51.8 51.8 111 148 148
Astra Zeneca 370 296 296 444 666
Curevac 148 148 148 148
Janssenn J&J* 222 148 222
Total (per Month) 37 162.8 599.4 791.8 1147 1332 1628
Total (Cumulative) 37 199.8 799.2 1591 2738 4070 5698


If you assume we will be following france supply wise and prorate (7.4% the population they have), these are the projections.

A few off numbers there such as Pfizer in december and modernas initial supply i think will be less, still a little in the dark about curevac but J&J is now likely to get us a good bit sooner than April.

Stark

EU are trying to do a deal with Novavax at the moment as well. Not sure if that'll get us supply in the first few months or if we go to the back of the queue. They're in phase 3 trials at the moment so possible approval in February?

Possibility of having 2.8m people vaccinated by end of June is making me feel a lot happier about things anyway (3.4m if J&J turns out to be 1-shot).

lucernarian

ixoy wrote: »

GPs are unhappy with the HSE's rollout:

https://www.independent.ie/news/worried-gps-overlooked-for-covid-19-vaccine-as-hse-online-system-to-register-for-jab-suffers-setback-39960157.html

It's an interesting point as they are front-line workers exposed to ill patients. When they see people getting the vaccine who aren't even working in hospitals currently it must be very frustrating.

This is just anecdotal, but as of yesterday there were staff nurses in Drogheda working with covid patients, still unvaccinated, and the same friend working in phlebotomy/diagnostics has already been vaccinated. They're grateful for the jab but are feeling bad themselves now, they know that many older or more frontline staff who still haven't received their first dose.

eigrod

https://twitter.com/donnellystephen/status/1349044903431577604?s=21

lbj666

lucernarian wrote: »

This is just anecdotal, but as of yesterday there were staff nurses in Drogheda working with covid patients, still unvaccinated, and the same friend working in phlebotomy/diagnostics has already been vaccinated. They're grateful for the jab but are feeling bad themselves now, they know that many older or more frontline staff who still haven't received their first dose.

Interesting to see can they make some sort of peace with the 2nd dose or has the horse bolted

Cork2021

eigrod wrote: »

https://twitter.com/donnellystephen/status/1349044903431577604?s=21

Excellent!!!
In fairness to Donnelly he’s trying his best to keep communicating but obviously needs the HSE to step up and start to publish vaccines figures at least every two days

Russman

lbj666 wrote: »

Interesting to see can they make some sort of peace with the 2nd dose or has the horse bolted

In fairness it’d be pretty stupid to refuse dose 2 regardless of how you felt about the roll out.
It’s never in a million years going to be 100% “fair”, I think they should just thank their good luck and carry on.

is_that_so

Cork2021 wrote: »

Excellent!!!
In fairness to Donnelly he’s trying his best to keep communicating but obviously needs the HSE to step up and start to publish vaccines figures at least every two days

They brief on Thursday afternoons.

lbj666

Russman wrote: »

In fairness it’d be pretty stupid to refuse dose 2 regardless of how you felt about the roll out.
It’s never in a million years going to be 100% “fair”, I think they should just thank their good luck and carry on.

Nah i mean shuffling around the appointments so that more critical staff get priority on the 2nd dose over admin etc. , provided the allowable gaps can be maintained.

Amirani

lbj666 wrote: »

Nah i mean shuffling around the appointments so that more critical staff get priority on the 2nd dose over admin etc. , provided the allowable gaps can be maintain.

Everyone automatically gets scheduled for 2nd dose exactly 21 days after the first at the moment.

Getting it any earlier than 21 days would probably give you less protection.

Russman

lbj666 wrote: »

Nah i mean shuffling around the appointments so that more critical staff get priority on the 2nd dose over admin etc. , provided the allowable gaps can be maintained.

Ahh right, I get you now. Hopefully that’d be the case.