COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Goldengirl

hmmm wrote: »

I don't want to sound like some of the more cretinous posters over on the restrictions thread, but I agree. The ethical problem then is what do you do as a society if even after vaccinations you still see large-scale suffering and death, particularly if your health systems are over-run. I know that's a worst-case, but it's realistic - particularly if there is a low take-up of the vaccines, or if new strains reduce the effectiveness of vaccines.

Hopefully by the time the vaccination program is winding down we'll also have better rapid tests - I think the testing side gets lost in all the vaccine excitement at times. If (and this is worst case) we have everyone who wants to be vaccinated completed, and if we are still seeing large-scale disease, then I think you start thinking about things like mandatory testing at entry to risky locations. Rapid tests in airports, restaurants, pubs, workplaces.

We could possibly end up with a situation where most of the vulnerable , older age groups and essential workers vaccinated and the virus is endemic in younger , less susceptible age groups.
It maybe an ethical issue at that stage whether in order to protect a group that may not wish to be protected as they think they are low risk ,the virus is allowed to take its course.
I would be concerned that we may then see too many young people getting sicker because the virus will adapt to new population of hosts?

odyssey06

dominatinMC wrote: »

I understand your view, but I just don't agree with it. Your view seems to be seeking the "perfect" solution - something which the medical profession will also be advocating. However, I think many other sectors of society will accept a compromise - a "very good" solution, whereby the virus won't ever "end" as you put it, but will be endemic and continually in the background.
If the vaccines perform as expected, the virus will be sufficiently suppressed to render it manageable under normal living conditions, without any restrictions.

Yes but it all hinges on "If the vaccines perform as expected" and I hope and expect they do.
The possible scenario I outlined was if they don't, which is something I can't rule out based on the data we have right now.

Polar101

Apogee wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/almost-all-gps-receive-first-dose-as-mass-vaccination-centres-open-1.4460396

Already? That went surprisingly fast. I guess they used most of the Moderna stock on GPs and staff.

Water John

The Corona virus is doing minor mutations and I don't see it radically adapting to focus on young people, in some way.

dominatinMC

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yes but it all hinges on "If the vaccines perform as expected" and I hope and expect they do.
The possible scenario I outlined was if they don't, which is something I can't rule out based on the data we have right now.

Fair enough, something of a worst case scenario then. However, at this stage, we have no reason to believe the vaccines will not perform as expected. In fact, preliminary data suggests that they (specifically the BioNTech one) will have the added benefit of suppressing transmission. The argument for restrictions will become ever weaker if this data proves correct

Stheno

Polar101 wrote: »

Already? That went surprisingly fast. I guess they used most of the Moderna stock on GPs and staff.

Its great news

If Gps did vaccinations for half a day five days a week at a rate of 6 per hour, that would be 86400 per day when we get enough vaccine

That alone would vaccinate 3.2 million in just over 37 weeks

Feedback from the GPS about the process was overwhelmingly positive too

AdamD

The GPs thing is quite good timing considering (I assume) most will be starting to give out vaccinations themselves in a month's time

polesheep

Just on these Norwegian deaths after the vaccine. Is it possible that there is a local factor responsible? e.g. Perhaps the correct temperature was not maintained during transportation.

Bubbaclaus

polesheep wrote: »

Just on these Norwegian deaths after the vaccine. Is it possible that there is a local factor responsible? e.g. Perhaps the correct temperature was not maintained during transportation.

How many people would die in a nursing home each week on average I wonder anyway? If you are doing a sweep of nursing homes over a week or two, there will still be around the average number of deaths in the week immediately after the vaccination.

odyssey06

dominatinMC wrote: »

Fair enough, something of a worst case scenario then. However, at this stage, we have no reason to believe the vaccines will not perform as expected. In fact, preliminary data suggests that they (specifically the BioNTech one) will have the added benefit of suppressing transmission. The argument for restrictions will become ever weaker if this data proves correct

It's the explanatory scenario I can think of to understand why restrictions would be needed even if we have majority of people vaccinated.
If the vaccines work as expected I'd be at a loss to explain it.

Fingers crossed that the preliminary data on transmission stands up.

cityboyjim

Are there people being vaccinated right now as we speak I wonder .Surely it is going 24/7 .Gardai and Nurses go 24/7 aswell as all the frontline staff .Teachers have it a bit different but correct to be cautious I suppose

Dickie10

coming into summer with most vaccinated, we will not live in a bubble i think, if sports events, pubs, gigs start to happen in UK and Europe i cant see them being cancelled here. like what happens euro 2020? 40% capacity all through european stadia and 0 people let into games in Aviva?

Goldengirl

Stheno wrote: »

Its great news

If Gps did vaccinations for half a day five days a week at a rate of 6 per hour, that would be 86400 per day when we get enough vaccine

That alone would vaccinate 3.2 million in just over 37 weeks

Feedback from the GPS about the process was overwhelmingly positive too

Yes. They are the first main group and secondly pharmacists .
Really the only thing that will hold things up now is the availability of the vaccines themselves.

Wolf359f

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

How many people would die in a nursing home each week on average I wonder anyway? If you are doing a sweep of nursing homes over a week or two, there will still be around the average number of deaths in the week immediately after the vaccination.

I think someone had a good analogy in this thread earlierr how many nursing home patients die after eating jelly and ice-cream... a higher % than the general public.

We've known we will hear of deaths after being vaccinated, due to the sheer number of vaccinations worldwide, which doesn't mean the death is related to the vaccine.

siblers

cityboyjim wrote: »

Are there people being vaccinated right now as we speak I wonder .Surely it is going 24/7 .Gardai and Nurses go 24/7 aswell as all the frontline staff .Teachers have it a bit different but correct to be cautious I suppose

Curious of this too

Richard Hillman

A question from a compete pleb on stuff like this :

The vaccines are saying they work around 95% of the time.

As seen potentially with the elderly Norway deaths, even with a vaccine it probably still won't help them. So you could say they are part of the 5% that we just can't help.

If we let the virus run rampant and completely ignored everything and continued on with life normally, would the death rate be any higher?

Wolf359f

Richard Hillman wrote: »

A question from a compete pleb on stuff like this :

The vaccines are saying they work around 95% of the time.

As seen potentially with the elderly Norway deaths, even with a vaccine it probably still won't help them. So you could say they are part of the 5% that we just can't help.

If we let the virus run rampant and completely ignored everything and continued on with life normally, would the death rate be any higher?

It's 95% effective after a second dose, go read up on the Norway cases and you will see it was after their first dose and before their second.

WoollyRedHat

People are massively focusing on the importance of vaccines, which is fair enough, they are key to getting out of this and this is is primarily the vaccine thread. But it's not the be all and end all, there's some real promising treatments that are now at clinical stage in UK that will hopefully make a huge differentlce, all going well, things like nasal sprays that treat infection at source, will be a huge contribution to our arsenal to fight this, will post link tomorrow about it.

Wolf359f

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

People are massively focusing on the importance of vaccines, which is fair enough, they are key to getting out of this and this is is primarily the vaccine thread. But it's not the be all and end all, there's some real promising treatments that are now at clinical stage in UK that will hopefully make a huge differentlce, all going well, things like nasal sprays that treat infection at source, will be a huge contribution to our arsenal to fight this, will post link tomorrow about it.

I'd be interested in reading about treatments, as apart from a vaccine, treatments haven't been so effective for the most part (compared to a vaccine I mean)
Most treatments seem to focus on faster recovery and not preventing deaths etc... Maybe as they are re-purposing drugs as it's the quickest option.
One would have though there was some new drugs that can do wonders, but like MRNA vaccines, was never called upon with such urgency.

lbj666

Richard Hillman wrote: »

A question from a compete pleb on stuff like this :

The vaccines are saying they work around 95% of the time.

As seen potentially with the elderly Norway deaths, even with a vaccine it probably still won't help them. So you could say they are part of the 5% that we just can't help.

If we let the virus run rampant and completely ignored everything and continued on with life normally, would the death rate be any higher?

You are a bit off a few understandings.

95% Effective means (based on trials) that the disease is prevented 95% of the time. Of the 5% that get the disease, the disease will likely be less severe than if they weren't vaccinated. So the benefit will be seen by actually more that the 95%,
Thats based on trials (which didnt include elderly) so it yet to be seen if thats what happens when rolled out.

On your second point of course deaths will go up, this virus has only infected 3.5% of the population so far, what to you think would happen if was let go up to even just 10%?

ceadaoin.

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

How many people would die in a nursing home each week on average I wonder anyway? If you are doing a sweep of nursing homes over a week or two, there will still be around the average number of deaths in the week immediately after the vaccination.

They've already concluded by postmortems that 13 of the deaths were directly caused by the vaccine so far. It wasn't just a random coincidence that they died.

ceadaoin.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

They've already concluded by postmortems that 13 of the deaths were directly caused by the vaccine so far. It wasn't just a random coincidence that they died.

Evidence?

ceadaoin.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Evidence?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80

Norway said Covid-19 vaccines may be too risky for the very old and terminally ill, the most cautious statement yet from a European health authority as countries assess the real-world side effects of the first shots to gain approval.

Norwegian officials said 23 people had died in the country a short time after receiving their first dose of the vaccine. Of those deaths, 13 have been autopsied, with the results suggesting that common side effects may have contributed to severe reactions in frail, elderly people, according to the Norwegian Medicines Agency.

Until Friday, the vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech SE was the only one available in Norway, and “all deaths are thus linked to this vaccine,” the Norwegian Medicines Agency said in a written response to Bloomberg on Saturday.

“There are 13 deaths that have been assessed, and we are aware of another 16 deaths that are currently being assessed,” the agency said. All the reported deaths related to “elderly people with serious basic disorders,” it said. “Most people have experienced the expected side effects of the vaccine, such as nausea and vomiting, fever, local reactions at the injection site, and worsening of their underlying condition.”

ceadaoin.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-15/norway-warns-of-vaccination-risks-for-sick-patients-over-80

I see no evidence that those 13 deaths are directly related to the vaccine. Only that 13 people have had an autopsy.

It warrants further study but it's a bit early.

irishgeo

A mail on Sunday poll has 86% saying yes to getting the vaccine and 7% No.

That's great news.

salmocab

irishgeo wrote: »

A mail on Sunday poll has 86% saying yes to getting the vaccine and 7% No.

That's great news.

Quite anecdotal but I’ve spoken to a few people who have said that originally they wouldn’t have been keen on it but at this stage will take pretty much anything offered.

is_that_so

Stheno wrote: »

Its great news

If Gps did vaccinations for half a day five days a week at a rate of 6 per hour, that would be 86400 per day when we get enough vaccine

That alone would vaccinate 3.2 million in just over 37 weeks

Feedback from the GPS about the process was overwhelmingly positive too

They used about half. These MVCs have the potential do at least 500 a day. The current 3 would comfortably do 10,000 a week and if they as planned, add in a larger network of those it expands quite substantially. 100K a week is a very easy target and 200K+ very achievable.

is_that_so

salmocab wrote: »

Quite anecdotal but I’ve spoken to a few people who have said that originally they wouldn’t have been keen on it but at this stage will take pretty much anything offered.

The current huge surge has focused minds a whole lot more. That and prediction of this going on for another year.

cityboyjim

Big Pharma should also explore some sort of mouth and nasal spray that would protect people from Covid 19 .I would imagine that would make them a fortune .

is_that_so

cityboyjim wrote: »

Big Pharma should also explore some sort of mouth and nasal spray that would protect people from Covid 19 .I would imagine that would make them a fortune .

Not by "Big pharma" but there are ongoing trials on this in a few places, one in the UK for sure and one is in Australia. There may be others.