COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Le Bruise

Unless I’m missing something, it’s more that the Oxford trials had a limited amount of over 55’s in the trail, not that it doesn’t work in over 55’s? U.K. seem happy enough with it for older folk.

snotboogie

lbj666 wrote: »

Guys this is very significant development if it comes to pass and i think ye are downplaying it.

I always though that astra zeneca would have a major part to play in older groups, along with pfizer and moderna pending on peoples state of health. The GPs/Pharmacist are getting trained in it as we speak, mainly to be ready for group 3 onward. Have i totally misunderstood this?

55 and over, is 1.1million people , how fast can we get 2.2 Pfizer/Moderna doses into the country? and then administer them given how difficult they are to handle.

Almost certainly by the end of the year, probably much sooner. The EU have purchased 600 million Pfizer vaccines, we'll be allocated about 1%. Pfizer have made very positive noises about delivery, it'd be hard to see us not get 37% of our allocation by Q4.

DaSilva

I have to be honest, I am happy the EMA are showing hesitancy with approval for the Oxford vaccine on over 55s, demonstrates they still have scientific integrity. If you read Oxford's paper from early December their results were very unconvincing for over 55s. This is why I am somewhat frustrated seeing young medical workers getting the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines considering their risk is limited already by age (though I understand the general prioritization of medical workers, just that Ox vaccine would be fine for them). I'd rather see early approval for Oxford asap and its use exclusively for under 55s and save all the Pfizer/Moderna for over 55s in all groups.

I'll take the Oxford vaccine, but I want my parents to get either the Pfizer or Moderna one.

I do hope the Oxford vaccine will end up being fairly effective in the elderly also, but the data just isn't there yet.

Really the blame here lies with Oxford/Astrazeneca and their bizarre approach and messy numbers

lbj666

DaSilva wrote: »

This is why I am somewhat frustrated seeing young medical workers getting the Pfizer / Moderna vaccines considering their risk is limited already by age (though I understand the general prioritization of medical workers, just that Ox vaccine would be fine for them).

Its a redundant point at the minute, new cases in health care workers are very high at the minute and they need everybody they can able to work.

Godot.

https://twitter.com/RTE_PrimeTime/status/1351664366618357766

Middle of February for the first delivery... how depressing. Seems a bit of a tall order to get it in before that because of the delivery contract and requiring the permission of the EU commission.

DaSilva

lbj666 wrote: »

Its a redundant point at the minute, new cases in health care workers are very high at the minute and they need everybody they can able to work.

Completely true, I guess I am just worried pressure to roll out the vaccine will mean AZ will be approved for all and then my folks will end up being offered that, and they wont refuse it of course, but then if the data eventually surfaces and shows its ineffective.... unlikely though I know

Van.Bosch

DaSilva wrote: »

Completely true, I guess I am just worried pressure to roll out the vaccine will mean AZ will be approved for all and then my folks will end up being offered that, and they wont refuse it of course, but then if the data eventually surfaces and shows its ineffective.... unlikely though I know

I think I’m that case, say 6 months down the road they might “top up” your parents with the Pfizer jab when more readily available.

Frank Bullitt

Godot. wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RTE_PrimeTime/status/1351664366618357766

Middle of February for the first delivery... how depressing. Seems a bit of a tall order to get it in before that because of the delivery contract and requiring the permission of the EU commission.

Ah here...

marno21

So much for AstraZeneca having 100m+ doses ready to ship before approval. Before any vaccines were approved there was great doubt that the country would be able to vaccinate at the rate that the pharma companies were able to supply. Turns out its the complete opposite.

Charles Babbage

marno21 wrote: »

So much for AstraZeneca having 100m+ doses ready to ship before approval. Before any vaccines were approved there was great doubt that the country would be able to vaccinate at the rate that the pharma companies were able to supply. Turns out its the complete opposite.

If any EU countries baulk at the cost of the Moderna virus, then we should snap up their allocation.

ACitizenErased

On the side of treatments - researchers may have found out the reason for severe COVID - autoantibodies.
Really fascinating article here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00149-1
This answers a lot of questions about COVID including huge differences in reactions in various people, statistically worse outcomes for men, and even this very puzzling "post-covid" syndrome some sources report about.

Datacore

I would caution against being too caught up by British media hype about a British developed vaccine. It definitely needs to be gone though with a fine tooth comb and that’s what the EMA is doing.

You could end up with something ineffective and having to rerun programmes if there are any issues and that’s less than ideal. It’s important to get it right as well as rolled out fast.

Pfizer and BioNTech massively ramping up their production capacity in Europe this month is, in my opinion, much better news.

Also the J&J/Janssen product is looking extremely promising and is very similar technology to the BioNTech & Moderna vaccines but is far more robust and can be distributed, stored and dosed more easily and as a single shot.

marno21

Datacore wrote: »

Also the J&J/Janssen product is looking extremely promising and is very similar technology to the BioNTech & Moderna vaccines but is far more robust and can be distributed, stored and dosed more easily and as a single shot.

Janssen vaccine is an adenovirus viral vector vaccine modified to encode the coronavirus spike protein, similar to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine (and indeed Sputnik V)

If Janssen come through with a single shot vaccine that works well in the under 55s also, we could be looking at spending Q2 using mass vaccination on those under 55 in the community while simultaneously administering the mRNA vaccines to those older.

Datacore

I would assume the EU orders are modifying as the vaccines hit the market though. They have massively increased the Pfizer order already.

Seems to have been a spread bet that will focus on the winners as they emerge.

My point is just be wary of the hype from the U.K.
They’ve approved a vaccine on shaky data and a lot of nationalistic zeal in what was a very desperate situation, given they’ve had a sustained position of one of being one of the worst COVID hotspots on the planet and appear to have had no real strategy other than vaccines.

When I heard suggestions allegedly from Boris Johnson that the vaccine vials should have Union Jacks on them, it really raised an entirely different type of red flag - the one meaning Danger Reckless Populism ahead!

For reason I was confusing J&J with Curevac. I think it’s the time of day!

Interestingly they’re now partnering with Bayer to scale up.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-curevac-bayer-idUSKBN29M09P

Curevac has technology that allows mRNA vaccines to be stored at normal fridge temperatures

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/features/mrna-vaccines-covid19-pandemic-curevac/

They’re targeting Q1 2021 for EMA authorisation, so it could well be 3 mRNA vaccines available before Janssen.

The EU pre order for CureVac is pretty large too.

Deeper Blue

The bashing of the Oxford vaccine is way OTT

If I recall correctly not a single person that took it in the trial ended up in hospital

It's an excellent option whatever way you look at it

JTMan

Datacore wrote: »

They’re targeting Q1 2021 for EMA authorisation, so it could well be 3 mRNA vaccines available before Janssen.

Very interesting, but where does it say in the articles that Curvac is targeting Q1 2021 and Janssen is not. I though Janssen might seek EMA authorisation as soon as February 2021 and Curvac might be as late as June 2021???? Thanks.

titan18

Godot. wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RTE_PrimeTime/status/1351664366618357766

Middle of February for the first delivery... how depressing. Seems a bit of a tall order to get it in before that because of the delivery contract and requiring the permission of the EU commission.

I'm pro EU but this sh1t about the EU commission refusing to allow countries to get vaccines delivered before approval is exactly why they're being heavily criticised in their covid response. Way too much bureaucracy and red tape to get anything done here

eoinbn

JTMan wrote: »

Very interesting, but where does it say in the articles that Curvac is targeting Q1 2021 and Janssen is not. I though Janssen might seek EMA authorisation as soon as February 2021 and Curvac might be as late as June 2021???? Thanks.

JnJ will be before Curevac. JnJ phase 3 results will be released in the next few weeks. Curevac are probably administering the second dose of their 2 dose vaccine as I type this. I believe Curevac results will be released in March with delivery hopefully starting in April.

If Bayer get on board with production then it could be a significant boost to the EU supply pipeline as I don't think the US or UK have an order from Curevac

Hector Savage

So people in Israel getting infected after having Pfizer vaccine ...

hmmm ..laying the foundation for the excuse of "continued restrictions, despite everyone being vaccinated" ... a total farce

dominatinMC

Hmmzis wrote: »

For me the most baffling thing about the serum assay results is the seemingly narrow, almost needle like, antibody respose against the S protein. There are about 6 nAB epitopes on the RBD alone, a couple in the S2 domain and then a couple between the NTD and the cleavage site. For most people the whole polyclonal response seems to be directed at just one or two epitopes - the RBM in the RBD and a small section in the NTD. Somehow the virus is throwing off the peptide sequencing and B cell functions. I've read about the predominantly extrafollicular B cell responses and that might partly explain this but the lack of available (non glycan shielded) epitope targetting nABs might maybe hint at some dendritic cell shennanigans as well, thogh I haven't come across anything about that in the published literature.

Basically, the loss of a nAB epitope or two should not normally lead to dramatic changes in neutralization by polyclonal antibodies. There are measles genotypes in Africa that have 3 out of 6 nAB epitopes mutated away and it has very limited effect on polyclonal serum activity.

Can you put that in layman terms Hmmzis?

Irish Stones

ACitizenErased wrote: »

On the side of treatments - researchers may have found out the reason for severe COVID - autoantibodies.
Really fascinating article here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00149-1
This answers a lot of questions about COVID including huge differences in reactions in various people, statistically worse outcomes for men, and even this very puzzling "post-covid" syndrome some sources report about.

So, the article says that symptoms of some patients with long covid have been very often dismissed by their physicians as made-up stories?
Well, that's interesting, and it's possible that because this symptoms are weird and unknown, the doctors don't want to be bothered with something they aren't able to treat.

ixoy

Hector Savage wrote: »

So people in Israel getting infected after having Pfizer vaccine ...

hmmm ..laying the foundation for the excuse of "continued restrictions, despite everyone being vaccinated" ... a total farce

But people were always expected to get infected after the vaccine. It's the question of how many (as a percentage) and how severely they are infected that matters.

Probes

Hector Savage wrote: »

So people in Israel getting infected after having Pfizer vaccine ...

hmmm ..laying the foundation for the excuse of "continued restrictions, despite everyone being vaccinated" ... a total farce

This idea that western governments want continued restrictions is absolutely mind boggling, what purpose would it serve? The problem is that they've been too quick to lift restrictions.

Sanjuro

Hector Savage wrote: »

So people in Israel getting infected after having Pfizer vaccine ...

hmmm ..laying the foundation for the excuse of "continued restrictions, despite everyone being vaccinated" ... a total farce

If the virus is suppressed to the point of people getting it, having mild symptoms and then recovering, that's a success. We're never going to eliminate the virus. But crushing it is the ultimate goal. People will still get the virus. But as long as they don't end up dying or in ICU, then, again, that's a success.

salmocab

Probes wrote: »

This idea that western governments want continued restrictions is absolutely mind boggling, what purpose would it serve? The problem is that they've been too quick to lift restrictions.

The downfall of most conspiracy theories is that there is no rational reason for the people the theorists claim are doing something to do that thing.

McGiver

https://infogram.com/table-covid-vaccination-tracker-1hnp27mm7womn2g

7th in the EU, which is great.

Saying that. This is a long run not a sprint. I suspect large population centres (the Pale basically) will be done quickly, but then it will slow down. Low population density and poor infrastructure/public services will play a role.

Hmmzis

dominatinMC wrote: »

Can you put that in layman terms Hmmzis?

At least when it comes to a natural infection, something in the virus is throwing off our immune system from a lot of important parts (neutralization epitopes) of the spike protein. For some reason most people only develop a very narrow and highly specialized response to one or two of those important parts. This is the reason for the loss reactivity of convalescent serum against the SA (and Brazil, as it's almost the same changes there) variant as the one or two sites are poorly conserved and even small changes lead to drastic alterations of the shape of that part (the RBM is a very flexible loop).

The preferable way for our immune systems to respond would be to target most if not all of the available important sites and in a broader manner.

After a few rounds with various types the immune system should 'get the message' what to target better as it prefers repetitive signals over ones that change from type to type.

This could have implications for any vaccine updates and future vaccine designs.

Hector Savage

Probes wrote: »

This idea that western governments want continued restrictions is absolutely mind boggling, what purpose would it serve? The problem is that they've been too quick to lift restrictions.

Exactly .... too quick will become longer and longer ...

GreeBo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

It has been suggested that some EU nations e.g. Bulgaria are unwilling to fork out for the Pfizer or even more the Moderna vaccine, and they prefer to wait for AZ or perhaps Janssen. So other EU countries can snag the Moderna stocks if they are willing to fund it. This seems an admirable opportunity for the likes of Denmark or Ireland that have vaccination well underway for these vaccines. The difference in cost between AZ and Moderna would be more than covered by paying one week less PUP payment by getting things open sooner.

It would be a balance though, you wouldnt want to be still slowly dispensing Pfizer if you had AZ available, the different efforts required would soon have AZ outpacing Pfizer. (Its at least twice as slow since you need 2 doses, then add on the complicated storage, travel, dilution procedures, not to mention expiry time)

ixoy

GreeBo wrote: »

It would be a balance though, you wouldnt want to be still slowly dispensing Pfizer if you had AZ available, the different efforts required would soon have AZ outpacing Pfizer. (Its at least twice as slow since you need 2 doses, then add on the complicated storage, travel, dilution procedures, not to mention expiry time)

Oxford vaccine is done in two doses too so it's not twice as slow but yes, logistics are a bigger issue.