COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

salmocab

Le Bruise wrote: »

February for approval submission to EMA, 200 million doses with the option of 200 million more. Not sure on logistics of getting it here.

So potentially we get 2 million doses and at a single jab that’s enough for almost half the population even without the extra order. Apologies if my math are stupid I’ve just got into work.

Sky King

Deleted User wrote: »

A word of caution - this is phase I/II data only. The wider phase III data will give more accuracy on the estimates of efficacy. Of course, this could just as easily be higher than lower than the data already shared.

Phase III due end of January - correct?

Le Bruise

salmocab wrote: »

So potentially we get 2 million doses and at a single jab that’s enough for almost half the population even without the extra order. Apologies if my math are stupid I’ve just got into work.

Exactly, so the single jab getting that kind of response is really good news. I was concerned that they’d started double dose trials as they weren’t happy with the response in the single.

raind mentions above that this is from phase I/II trials, so will obviously have to hold the powder dry until phase III results. I’m just happy with some good news after the doom and gloomers last night!

snowcat

Is there a possibility we are doing this all wrong on vaccine rollout? Vaccinating care home residents is not going to really have an impact on ICU or to a great extent deaths. Even a mild dose of Covid is going to cause the death of a care home resident especially very old or frail even if vaccinated. Remember the vaccine does not prevent you from getting Covid.The cohort that have poor outcomes and would benefit most from the vaccine are 50-80 year olds. They are the ones that will end up in ICU and hospital. They are also the ones that have greater years of life left so will benefit from vaccine most. I know we are getting to them but as can be seen in Israel I will not be expecting any reduction in deaths or cases for several months at this rate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55620356

is_that_so

snowcat wrote: »

Is there a possibility we are doing this all wrong on vaccine rollout? Vaccinating care home residents is not going to really have an impact on ICU or to a great extent deaths. Even a mild dose of Covid is going to cause the death of a care home resident especially very old or frail even if vaccinated. Remember the vaccine does not prevent you from getting Covid.The cohort that have poor outcomes and would benefit most from the vaccine are 50-80 year olds. They are the ones that will end up in ICU and hospital. They are also the ones that have greater years of life left so will benefit from vaccine most. I know we are getting to them but as can be seen in Israel I will not be expecting any reduction in deaths or cases for several months at this rate.

If you vaccinate care homes you remove the threat to a very high risk population. One might think you're bean counting with people's lives. Group 3 are the same in terms of risk. At that point, in March or April those hospital pressures should be fully be mitigated. The only country bucking the trend is Indonesia, who are doing the under 60s first but you will get fined if you don't get a shot.

is_that_so

salmocab wrote: »

So potentially we get 2 million doses and at a single jab that’s enough for almost half the population even without the extra order. Apologies if my math are stupid I’ve just got into work.

It's not all going to arrive at the same time although the HSE are looking to get up to 1m vaccinations a month.

ixoy

Morries Wigs wrote: »

Janssen is coming in at 90%

https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/140377/johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-safely-elicits-an-immune-response/

RTE on this:
"J&J vaccine offers two months immunity" :pac:

salmocab

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not all going to arrive at the same time although the HSE are looking to get up to 1m vaccinations a month.

Well no I didn’t for a minute think it would but it could go a long way to getting the 70% figure done by end of June

Le Bruise

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not all going to arrive at the same time although the HSE are looking to get up to 1m vaccinations a month.

I wonder does the timeline of the planned rollout factor in single or double for J&J (or J&J at all)?

is_that_so

Le Bruise wrote: »

I wonder does the timeline of the planned rollout factor in single or double for J&J (or J&J at all)?

For planning they should probably have a timeline for both factored in. My guess is that the overall plan is a two shot regime as that covers the vast majority of the vaccines.

Kivaro

Generally good news then on the vaccine front overnight.
With the speed of these new variants and the way they evolve (expectantly) to become more virulent, I imagine that the planet could have been in serious trouble if the current vaccine development and production was not so far ahead.
There should be a lesson here for our little planet. Maybe more money and resources spent on healthcare and in preventative measures for the next virus (because there will be a next virus), and less money on areas like the military. It's fine to have nice and shiny and very expensive high tech weaponry, only to find after the next virus that there might be nobody there to fire them.
(Philosophical thought of the day).

Irish Stones

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its vaccine or no vaccine, the which one will be a medical decision made for you

On which basis a doctor will decide what vaccine is better for a patient?
Genuine question.

Sky King

Irish Stones wrote: »

On which basis a doctor will decide what vaccine is better for a patient?
Genuine question.

I would imagine there will be guidelines issued once more data is available. One type might perform better in older people. Or whatever.

Irish Stones

Irish Stones wrote: »

On which basis a doctor will decide what vaccine is better for a patient?
Genuine question.

On the basis of what he has access to

Irish Stones

Deleted User wrote: »

On the basis of what he has access to

It could happen that he hasn't much to rely on. For instance when a patient is new to his practice and has no health records, or when a patient is totally unaware of any underlying condition.

Icantthinkof1

political analyst wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/maternity-nurses-left-waiting-for-vaccine-as-management-given-jabs-39988671.html

Why was it not ensured that healthcare workers were vaccinated before admin workers?

I could be completely wrong here so someone please correct me if I am
I think some frontline workers with medical vulnerabilities were re-deployed in clerk roles
It would be in the hospitals best interests to prioritise them to
a) protect them
b) get them back out into their patient facing roles asap

Le Bruise

Le Bruise wrote: »

Exactly, so the single jab getting that kind of response is really good news. I was concerned that they’d started double dose trials as they weren’t happy with the response in the single.

raind mentions above that this is from phase I/II trials, so will obviously have to hold the powder dry until phase III results. I’m just happy with some good news after the doom and gloomers last night!

They actually are doing a two dose trial in parallel. The 90% figure might actually mean 2 doses will be required to get as close to 100% as possible, may be a case of a bit of a longer wait for a booster compared to the others though.

lbj666

snowcat wrote: »

Is there a possibility we are doing this all wrong on vaccine rollout? Vaccinating care home residents is not going to really have an impact on ICU or to a great extent deaths. Even a mild dose of Covid is going to cause the death of a care home resident especially very old or frail even if vaccinated. Remember the vaccine does not prevent you from getting Covid.The cohort that have poor outcomes and would benefit most from the vaccine are 50-80 year olds. They are the ones that will end up in ICU and hospital. They are also the ones that have greater years of life left so will benefit from vaccine most. I know we are getting to them but as can be seen in Israel I will not be expecting any reduction in deaths or cases for several months at this rate.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55620356

I think people were under the impression that is would significantly reduce deaths from the off, but much of the high portion of deaths in nursing on came early on when there was little to no control etc.

But they are far more vulnerable than your broad >65 > 75 group in the community, the mortality rate in those age groups in that environment is far higher than outside. You got to think of it as potential deaths prevented, its confined environment no other sector has experienced as much strain and hardship both emotionally and physically trying to keep outbreaks at bay and have been on the brink of breaking point for the past year

Plus we knew supply would limited in the beginning and that grouping fits evenly with supply would be available early on

snotboogie

1.5% of Israel's population got a vaccine yesterday. It looked like they were slowing down earlier in the week but they have actually accelerated again. 27% of their population have gotten at least one shot and 7.5% of their population have been fully vaccinated.

Interestingly, Canada, who I think many had flagged as a potential leader in vaccinations at the end of 2020, are really lagging behind. They have only administered 1.73 vaccines per 100, way behind the US, who are nearly at 5 per 100.

stephenjmcd

AstraZeneca is monthly delivery as per EU purchase deal.

Thats 600,000 doses so enough for 300,000 people delivered in Q1

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1352200677020360704?s=19

seamus

snotboogie wrote: »

1.5% of Israel's population got a vaccine yesterday. It looked like they were slowing down earlier in the week but they have actually accelerated again. 27% of their population have gotten at least one shot and 7.5% of their population have been fully vaccinated.

Maybe it was overly optmistic of me, but I was hoping to see tangible results in Israel sooner. Their infection numbers are still huge and not really dropping.

But I guess it's only been a month, it might be the end of month 2 before the results are visible in daily numbers.

snotboogie

seamus wrote: »

Maybe it was overly optmistic of me, but I was hoping to see tangible results in Israel sooner. Their infection numbers are still huge and not really dropping.

But I guess it's only been a month, it might be the end of month 2 before the results are visible in daily numbers.

The 7 day average for new infections seems to be leveling off over the last week. It'll be very interesting to watch over the next month or so.

MerlinSouthDub

seamus wrote: »

Maybe it was overly optmistic of me, but I was hoping to see tangible results in Israel sooner. Their infection numbers are still huge and not really dropping.

But I guess it's only been a month, it might be the end of month 2 before the results are visible in daily numbers.

Perhaps the people being vaccinated might not overlap much with the people getting infected? could it largely be a young cohort (young adults) getting infected through social interactions, and that cohort are presumably not getting vaccinated yet.

CIARAN_BOYLE

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Perhaps the people being vaccinated might not overlap much with the people getting infected? could it largely be a young cohort (young adults) getting infected through social interactions, and that cohort are presumably not getting vaccinated yet.

I would assume if the numbers are high in young people that icu numbers would be trending downwards?

seamus

seamus wrote: »

Maybe it was overly optmistic of me, but I was hoping to see tangible results in Israel sooner. Their infection numbers are still huge and not really dropping.

But I guess it's only been a month, it might be the end of month 2 before the results are visible in daily numbers.

I saw a chart at some stage of the epidemiological predictions based on herd immunity - I think you need to be over 30% immunity before you get appreciable slowing. Based on their data no more than 10% of the population have likely had the virus, and various stages of resistance among those who have got the vaccine, so while the should soon be hitting 30%, there are not there yet.

titan18

stephenjmcd wrote: »

AstraZeneca is monthly delivery as per EU purchase deal.

Thats 600,000 doses so enough for 300,000 people delivered in Q1

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1352200677020360704?s=19

So, should be an extra 150k getting vaccinated in February and another 150k in March I'd assume as they'll hold those doses back I'd guess incase of any delays.

Hmmzis

One of the freakiest vaccine candidate constructs I've seen so far:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.19.427310v1.full.pdf+html

They're using bacteriophages to display the target virus antigens. The actual genetic construction bit is way over my head but the results are looking very impressive and it allows for a multitude of antigens to be displayed on one phage. This would allow for a multivalent display of all sorts of mutant spikes as well.

Not even sure how to classify this type, it's sort of a recombinant protein with adjuvant but the antigens are presented on a bacteriophage (another virus).

nommm

seamus wrote: »

Maybe it was overly optmistic of me, but I was hoping to see tangible results in Israel sooner. Their infection numbers are still huge and not really dropping.

But I guess it's only been a month, it might be the end of month 2 before the results are visible in daily numbers.

Key now is lockdown, I’m not expecting to see any great effect from vaccine till a far greater proportion of the population are vaccinated. Judging by Leos comments thus far, I think our government are going to be left disappointed by the impact of vaccine until the summer.

Cole

Going by current progress, anybody here with a little insight into which vaccine is likely to be used when we get to group 3 on the list - people aged 70 and older? From my layman's knowledge, I'd prefer to see my parents get the higher efficacy Pfizer or Moderna...I'll take whatever I'm offered later.

Stark

Wonder if we're still due to hear more results from J&J today https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/health/2021-01-11-jj-vaccine-results-expected-in-10-days-time/