COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

is_that_so

Micky 32 wrote: »

So i gather you think differently so.

I think the UK have been quick out of the blocks with predictions and promises, all too quick at times and it's made them look like charlatans. I hope they are but as with all things COVID seeing is believing.

Gael23

Russman wrote: »

You would think that means they definitely will approve it anyway (in whatever dosing regimen it turns out to be). I suppose there wasn't really much doubt, but still...

I wouldnt like to be the person on the regulatory board that stands in the way

dominatinMC

Micky 32 wrote: »

Some positive qoutes for Friday morning from our neighbour regarding the vaccines :

“”Will we ever get back to normal?””


“”England’s chief medical officer has said he is “confident” that life will go back to normal, and Professor Chris Whitty has said he is “not in doubt” that life can return to the way it was before the pandemic struck.

He told BBC Breakfast: “I am confident we will go back to life as it was before at some point, that’s not in doubt. That’s the life we all want to lead."

But he suggested that measures could be needed until “some time in the spring” to stem the spread of the virus.””

Surely he is just stating the obvious here. I don't think anyone is suggesting that our current means of existence (as that's all it is) is anything but a temporary measure. Notice how the phrase "new normal" has more or less vanished from our lexicon since the vaccines have emerged. It is inevitible that at some point the pandemic will end. Unfortunately, we don't know when that point will be, could be months, could be years. Of course, we hope and expect that the vaccines will accelerate the ending of the pandemic, and thankfully the end looks to be in sight.

To be honest, half the time these "normal" questions are asked, I think they are loaded to illicit a response from some expert/public who might say that we will never return to normal - in all probability meaning that we may need an annual vaccine, more WFH or something minor like that. However, the implication of a headline saying "no return to normal" is much graver, suggesting distancing, masks, etc. forever which any rational person knows is complete unrealistic.

Deeper Blue

People are talking about annual vaccinations as if they're inevitable.

Let's wait and see how the current vaccines perform first shall we?

Still way too early to be saying annual vaccines forever

Gile_na_gile

I've been scouring the interwebs to see if there is any information on production volumes of the J&J vaccine for Europe, presuming it will be efficacious and receive EMA. Basically, the details of the Advance Purchase Allocation and negotiations are confidential, so all we have is the commitment that 200m are purchased with an option for 200m, and that includes a sum directed towards production of infrastructure.

I would assume the J&J vaccine will be manufactured in Europe as well as the USA, and that we will have our own dedicated supply as we do of Moderna (Switzerland and Spain involved) even it is a low volume. It would be a pity to find out that production will only ramp up after CMA and that supplies will be heavily limited as they are for Pfizer. On the latter, the EComm will be seeking further clarification this week from Pfizer. What if they are squeezing our supply to ramp up production for export out of the EU rather than the doses we have paid for, including money for their production lines?

Anyway, only people on the inside in pharma and gov will have information on these aspects, and I must be content with being a back-seat driver it seems.

nommm

https://www.ft.com/content/59a014d0-aacc-43a5-b061-8ea4b25c3c00

Don’t know if this has been posted, very frustrating if it does come to pass. Basically, since EU has granted approval for 6 doses, Pfizer wants to supply less vials as deal was done on doses not vials.

partyguinness

Ce he sin wrote: »

Ask the families and friends of the 2,000 plus people who have died of Covid in Ireland.

Why?

CIARAN_BOYLE

nommm wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/59a014d0-aacc-43a5-b061-8ea4b25c3c00

Don’t know if this has been posted, very frustrating if it does come to pass. Basically, since EU has granted approval for 6 doses, Pfizer wants to supply less vials as deal was done on doses not vials.

I can't read the article as its behind a pay wall.

I can understand where Pfizer are coming from. Any chance they agree to meeting the middle with you supply the same number of vials and we will pay for 6 doses a vial.

is_that_so

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I can't read the article as its behind a pay wall.

I can understand where Pfizer are coming from. Any chance they agree to meeting the middle with you supply the same number of vials and we will pay for 6 doses a vial.

I wonder if all this tension is what has prompted hints that EMA will approve Oxford on 27 January.

Here's a WSJ version, paywalled too but you can read more of it. Our planning and vaccination progress is gold standard in comparison with some countries!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europeans-clash-with-pfizer-biontech-over-covid-19-vaccine-deliveries-11611182655

Micky 32

dominatinMC wrote: »

Surely he is just stating the obvious here. I don't think anyone is suggesting that our current means of existence (as that's all it is) is anything but a temporary measure. Notice how the phrase "new normal" has more or less vanished from our lexicon since the vaccines have emerged. It is inevitible that at some point the pandemic will end. Unfortunately, we don't know when that point will be, could be months, could be years. Of course, we hope and expect that the vaccines will accelerate the ending of the pandemic, and thankfully the end looks to be in sight.

To be honest, half the time these "normal" questions are asked, I think they are loaded to illicit a response from some expert/public who might say that we will never return to normal - in all probability meaning that we may need an annual vaccine, more WFH or something minor like that. However, the implication of a headline saying "no return to normal" is much graver, suggesting distancing, masks, etc. forever which any rational person knows is complete unrealistic.

I have to be honest, the light i was seeing at the end of the tunnel is begining to start flickering a bit. It’s clear to see that the narrative of our officials has changed over the last couple weeks. It seems now to be all about talks of future tightening restrictions while no hint of that light at the end of the tunnel. A total different narrative compared to just before xmas when news of the vaccines were revealed.

Then we have Tony slamming Ryanair for their “jab and go “ campaign. While i understand it’s not wise to travel at the moment i fear Tony’s narrative will be finger wagging and essential travel only for years to come despite us all being vaccinated. That’s concerning for me as i have close family abroad. My mental health over this is taking a hammering.

My apologies for being a bit negative today, something just feels different the last week or so.

is_that_so

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have to be honest, the light i was seeing at the end of the tunnel is begining to start flickering a bit. It’s clear to see that the narrative of our officials has changed over the last couple weeks. It seems now to be all about talks of future tightening restrictions while no hint of that light at the end of the tunnel. A total different narrative compared to just before xmas when news of the vaccines were revealed.

Then we have Tony slamming Ryanair for their “jab and go “ campaign. While i understand it’s not wise to travel at the moment i fear Tony’s narrative will be finger wagging and essential travel only for years to come despite us all being vaccinated. That’s concerning for me as i have close family abroad.

My apologies for being a bit negative today, something just feels different the last week or so.

GP referrals are down today!

Hmmzis

The latest on transmissibility of the UK variant:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#positive-tests-that-are-compatible-with-the-new-uk-variant

It does not look like it's all that much more transmissible than the original. It's taking a nosedive in England, increasing in Scotland and NI while staying at same rates in Wales (relative to the other types).

Deeper Blue

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have to be honest, the light i was seeing at the end of the tunnel is begining to start flickering a bit. It’s clear to see that the narrative of our officials has changed over the last couple weeks. It seems now to be all about talks of future tightening restrictions while no hint of that light at the end of the tunnel. A total different narrative compared to just before xmas when news of the vaccines were revealed.

Then we have Tony slamming Ryanair for their “jab and go “ campaign. While i understand it’s not wise to travel at the moment i fear Tony’s narrative will be finger wagging and essential travel only for years to come despite us all being vaccinated. That’s concerning for me as i have close family abroad. My mental health over this is taking a hammering.

My apologies for being a bit negative today, something just feels different the last week or so.

The general narrative seems to have switched alright. Now it's all about how the vaccines "won't work" because of the new mutations. This seems to be presented as fact by a lot of people despite there being zero evidence of it yet.

Deeper Blue

Hmmzis wrote: »

The latest on transmissibility of the UK variant:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#positive-tests-that-are-compatible-with-the-new-uk-variant

It does not look like it's all that much more transmissible than the original. It's taking a nosedive in England, increasing in Scotland and NI while staying at same rates in Wales (relative to the other types).

So do you reckon it was correlation caused by Christmas mixing rather than causation?

FionnK86

FionnK86 wrote: »

My best friend was vaccinated today.

My girlfriend's nursing home which had outbreak, have now tested negative and they'll be getting vaccinated at their prescribed time.

Delighted, great start to the week for us here in the house.

Girlfriend vaccinated today.

mirrorwall14

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I can't read the article as its behind a pay wall.

I can understand where Pfizer are coming from. Any chance they agree to meeting the middle with you supply the same number of vials and we will pay for 6 doses a vial.

To be honest though they’d need to then put at least 6.5 in the vial as my understanding is that you don’t always manage to make the 6?

MerlinSouthDub

Hmmzis wrote: »

The latest on transmissibility of the UK variant:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#positive-tests-that-are-compatible-with-the-new-uk-variant

It does not look like it's all that much more transmissible than the original. It's taking a nosedive in England, increasing in Scotland and NI while staying at same rates in Wales (relative to the other types).

Fascinating! New variant cases look like they are falling faster than other cases. It's probably too much to hope that the new variant is less transmissible than other variants!

Hmmzis

El Sueño wrote: »

So do you reckon it was correlation caused by Christmas mixing rather than causation?

Not sure, difficult to reconcile the whole thing.

It does spread in a very uneven manner as is, adding in some additional human behavioral changes over Xmas could act as a confounding factor. Not sure if there are any PCR assays that use only the S gene, but if there are then that might have amplified the issue as well due to the S gene dropout.

marno21

Hmmzis wrote: »

The latest on transmissibility of the UK variant:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#positive-tests-that-are-compatible-with-the-new-uk-variant

It does not look like it's all that much more transmissible than the original. It's taking a nosedive in England, increasing in Scotland and NI while staying at same rates in Wales (relative to the other types).

My theory there is that many of those infections in Scotland and Wales were caused by Londoners returning to their home places before Xmas and causing outbreaks because the non-B117 variants weren’t particularly prevalent in these areas.

Similar to near me in rural Cork, and outbreak of at least 10 cases was caused by a London resident returning from the UK, testing negative on Day 5 but later testing positive, in an area that had little incidence before this. Nothing to do with transmissibility but the fact that the outbreak was seeded from London.

D.Q

El Sueño wrote: »

The general narrative seems to have switched alright. Now it's all about how the vaccines "won't work" because of the new mutations. This seems to be presented as fact by a lot of people despite there being zero evidence of it yet.

This really seems like the media trying to squeeze every last drop out of their once in a century cash cow.

CIARAN_BOYLE

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

To be honest though they’d need to then put at least 6.5 in the vial as my understanding is that you don’t always manage to make the 6?

They put enough in the vial for just over 7.

Theres natural wastage in how they make up the doses.

Generally it results in 6. Sometimes 7 or 5.

landofthetree

One in eight people in the Netherlands could have Covid-19 antibodies as a result of having had the infection, but that does not mean that they should join the back of the vaccine queue to save on scarce vaccines, experts have said. The figure, based on a continuing probe by blood bank Sanquin, means that as many as 2.3 million people could have developed a natural immunity for the disease for a period of six to eight months. The public health institute has registered almost 900,000 positive coronavirus tests to date.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:
https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/01/2-3-million-people-have-covid-antibodies-blood-bank-probe-shows/

greenheep

Micky 32 wrote: »

I have to be honest, the light i was seeing at the end of the tunnel is begining to start flickering a bit. It’s clear to see that the narrative of our officials has changed over the last couple weeks. It seems now to be all about talks of future tightening restrictions while no hint of that light at the end of the tunnel. A total different narrative compared to just before xmas when news of the vaccines were revealed.

Then we have Tony slamming Ryanair for their “jab and go “ campaign. While i understand it’s not wise to travel at the moment i fear Tony’s narrative will be finger wagging and essential travel only for years to come despite us all being vaccinated. That’s concerning for me as i have close family abroad. My mental health over this is taking a hammering.

My apologies for being a bit negative today, something just feels different the last week or so.

I have to agree with this, I just don't understand what is going on. I know we had an explosion of cases after Christmas but this should be down and under control in the next 4-6 weeks. We are also making good progress with the vaccine rollout so why is there now talk of zero covid, hotel quarantines, closing down travel in Europe. Even last summer before we had any vaccines a lot of Europe was allowing and welcoming tourists. Do they have access to some worrying preliminery information that we don't know about yet?

SheepsClothing

El Sueño wrote: »

The general narrative seems to have switched alright. Now it's all about how the vaccines "won't work" because of the new mutations. This seems to be presented as fact by a lot of people despite there being zero evidence of it yet.

Do you think a vaccine resistant mutation is something we might want to consider preemptively protecting the country against? Just because we don't yet have evidence of the vaccines not working on a particular strain, doesn't mean it's not possible. If it were to come to pass, we'd no doubt be caught with our pants down again.

funnydoggy

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Do you think a vaccine resistant mutation is something we might want to consider preemptively protecting the country against? Just because we don't yet have evidence of the vaccines not working on a particular strain, doesn't mean it's not possible. If it were to come to pass, we'd no doubt be caught with our pants down again.

The mRNA vaccines can be tweaked in relatively little time with a shorter approval process. We'll be fine.

is_that_so

greenheep wrote: »

I have to agree with this, I just don't understand what is going on. I know we had an explosion of cases after Christmas but this should be down and under control in the next 4-6 weeks. We are also making good progress with the vaccine rollout so why is there now talk of zero covid, hotel quarantines, closing down travel in Europe. Even last summer before we had any vaccines a lot of Europe was allowing and welcoming tourists. Do they have access to some worrying preliminery information that we don't know about yet?

No, it's just panic at the apparent rapid spread of the B.1.1.7 variant bumping up case numbers and a whole lot of frustration about vaccine supplies and vaccination programmes. Like COVID itself, all of this will pass.

Gile_na_gile

(Reuters) - Russia’s sovereign wealth fund RDIF has filed for registration of the Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine in the European Union and expects it to be reviewed in February, as Moscow seeks to speed up its availability worldwide.
.....
The Sputnik V and European Medical Agency (EMA) teams held a scientific review of the vaccine on Tuesday, the Sputnik V account said, adding the EMA will take a decision on the authorization of the vaccine based on the reviews. (bit.ly/39OQZDR)

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine/update-1-russia-files-sputnik-v-vaccine-registration-in-europe-idUSL4N2JV2J4

Nothing on the EMA website yet.

SheepsClothing

funnydoggy wrote: »

The mRNA vaccines can be tweaked in relatively little time with a shorter approval process. We'll be fine.

Even if they could tweak and approve an updated vaccine quickly, they still are going to need time to manufacture and supply the vaccine to the whole of Europe again. Then that will need to be rolled out to 3.5 million people. Generously, this whole process could take the guts of 6 months.

There's also the problem of not everyone is getting the mRNA vaccine in this initial roll out, so those people who didn't will likely need a full 2 dose refresh.

is_that_so

Gile_na_gile wrote: »

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine/update-1-russia-files-sputnik-v-vaccine-registration-in-europe-idUSL4N2JV2J4

Nothing on the EMA website yet.

And here's a piece arguing the benefits of a possible Sputnik V/Oxford combination.

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-combining-the-oxford-vaccine-with-russias-sputnik-v-vaccine-could-make-it-more-effective-152873

is_that_so

Israel R0 down to below 1 for the first time since they started vaccinating.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-idUSKBN29Q2H9