COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

is_that_so

SheepsClothing wrote: »

Even if they could tweak and approve an updated vaccine quickly, they still are going to need time to manufacture and supply the vaccine to the whole of Europe again. Then that will need to be rolled out to 3.5 million people. Generously, this whole process could take the guts of 6 months.

There's also the problem of not everyone is getting the mRNA vaccine in this initial roll out, so those people who didn't will likely need a full 2 dose refresh.

Oxford are preparing to produce different versions of their vaccine to combat the variants.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine-idUSKBN29P2QV

NeuralNetwork

El Sueño wrote: »

So do you reckon it was correlation caused by Christmas mixing rather than causation?

I would speculate that it could be a combination of the two. The WHO commentary at the time seemed to be leaning far more on a spike in social mixing than on the virus having changed significantly.

It's hard to underestimate the hype around Christmas in Britain and Ireland. I know other countries have traditions of ornate Christmas markets and events like that, but the amount of partying, visiting, shopping and drinking that goes on in these two islands over those few weeks is off the scale by almost any standards.

Consider for example that many retailers have 50% of their sales occurring in a few weeks around Xmas.

Boris Johnson was very quick to jump on an excuse of a new viral strain rather than failed policy and when it came to it here, our government was quite ready to do the same and actually contradicted the commentary from medics about how it was caused by mixing.

The UK is also being far more proactive about identifying new strains than many countries had been to that point and may have been sequencing a lot more samples than most. So there could potentially be a lot more strains floating around undetected. It's unlikely that it's only mutated in a few countries.

dominatinMC

greenheep wrote: »

I have to agree with this, I just don't understand what is going on. I know we had an explosion of cases after Christmas but this should be down and under control in the next 4-6 weeks. We are also making good progress with the vaccine rollout so why is there now talk of zero covid, hotel quarantines, closing down travel in Europe. Even last summer before we had any vaccines a lot of Europe was allowing and welcoming tourists. Do they have access to some worrying preliminery information that we don't know about yet?

I think all these measures are being suggested as countries know they must buy time for their vaccination programmes and ensure they're not undermined by any new variants. If the virus continues to spread (whilst countries are vaccinating their populations), there is a chance it could mutate and render the vaccines less effective. This scenario could happen anyway, but at least with restricted travel any variants can be localised. We know the vaccines are safe and work, so we need to safeguard ourselves to ensure we don't have to go back to the drawing board again. Short term pain, for long term gain.

Van.Bosch

greenheep wrote: »

I have to agree with this, I just don't understand what is going on. I know we had an explosion of cases after Christmas but this should be down and under control in the next 4-6 weeks. We are also making good progress with the vaccine rollout so why is there now talk of zero covid, hotel quarantines, closing down travel in Europe. Even last summer before we had any vaccines a lot of Europe was allowing and welcoming tourists. Do they have access to some worrying preliminery information that we don't know about yet?

I think a lot of this is short termism. If the government were optimistic it would lead to people relaxing, cases are bad at the moment so we need to drive them down. The government is staying on message while being vague about timelines.

I’m putting all my faith in vaccines getting things much better in July / August. Maybe I’m naive but so be it.

seamus

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

Boris Johnson was very quick to jump on an excuse of a new viral strain rather than failed policy and when it came to it here, our government was quite ready to do the same and actually contradicted the commentary from medics about how it was caused by mixing.

I'm laying most of the blame for the hysteria over all the new strains, squarely at the UK, specifically Johnson and Hancock.

They were super fast out of the blocks to claim there was a rapid-spreading variant, but really slow to provide coherent data to other countries. If the data was clear enough to warrant the Health Secretary raising the alarm, then it should have been dead easy to provide to the rest of us.

Since then it's been panic after panic from the media. There's a new super-strain coming that's even worse. Vaccines won't work. Lockdowns till 2022. Even Micky Martin decided to jump on the bandwagon and blame the new variant for the growth in cases, even when we barely had any incidence of it.

They're still having trouble proving that there was much substance to their original panic, but they've left an absolute sh1tshow in their wake.

As it is, we are on course for a drastic and permanent ramp-down of restrictions after Easter. Starting with retail and public spaces, moving onto hospitality, and eventually onto large events and pubs. Despite all the talk now of zero covid and travel bans, nothing has changed that would put that timeline in jeopardy.

Micky 32

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I’m putting all my faith in vaccines getting things much better in July / August. Maybe I’m naive but so be it.

Same here, i have always said last quarter of the year. Sometimes the media can make one lose faith at times!

Stark

is_that_so wrote: »

Israel R0 down to below 1 for the first time since they started vaccinating.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-israel-idUSKBN29Q2H9

They've also been in a lockdown since Dec 27th. Not dissing the vaccines, just curious to me why their lockdown measures have been so ineffective to compared to us. They don't even have weekend trippers to the Wicklow mountains :pac:

funnydoggy

Micky 32 wrote: »

Same here, i have always said last quarter of the year. Sometimes the media can make one lose faith at times!

I understand you totally buddy. Seamus' post above should help you!

Don't lose faith just yet, the light is growing brighter. Any doom & gloom from here on is just to either temper expectations (of a full reopening at the end of FB), or it's for attention.


We'll be out of this soon

braychelsea

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/astrazenca-duerfte-nur-einen-bruchteil-impfstoff-liefern/401164989
"Bad news from the vaccination front: Because the EU is taking so long to approve Astra Zeneca, Europeans will initially receive less vaccine. For Austria this means that we will now only get 600,000 vaccine doses instead of 2,000,000 in the first quarter.

According to insiders, the health authorities were informed of this major change today - after a video conference with representatives from Astra Zeneca. Because Astra is now apparently delivering to other countries outside the EU."

Christ, fairly awful from the EU. I know the EMA needs to take its time but I think we will be left counting the losses come summer when the UK and USA have vaccinated most of their population.

Le Bruise

braychelsea wrote: »

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/astrazenca-duerfte-nur-einen-bruchteil-impfstoff-liefern/401164989
"Bad news from the vaccination front: Because the EU is taking so long to approve Astra Zeneca, Europeans will initially receive less vaccine. For Austria this means that we will now only get 600,000 vaccine doses instead of 2,000,000 in the first quarter.

According to insiders, the health authorities were informed of this major change today - after a video conference with representatives from Astra Zeneca. Because Astra is now apparently delivering to other countries outside the EU."

Christ, fairly awful from the EU. I know the EMA needs to take its time but I think we will be left counting the losses come summer when the UK and USA have vaccinated most of their population.

Can't see that reported anywhere else at the moment. Surely RTE would have been all over this particular nugget of negativity!

Edit: I see it being reported now about a shortfall!

is_that_so

braychelsea wrote: »

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/astrazenca-duerfte-nur-einen-bruchteil-impfstoff-liefern/401164989
"Bad news from the vaccination front: Because the EU is taking so long to approve Astra Zeneca, Europeans will initially receive less vaccine. For Austria this means that we will now only get 600,000 vaccine doses instead of 2,000,000 in the first quarter.

According to insiders, the health authorities were informed of this major change today - after a video conference with representatives from Astra Zeneca. Because Astra is now apparently delivering to other countries outside the EU."

Christ, fairly awful from the EU. I know the EMA needs to take its time but I think we will be left counting the losses come summer when the UK and USA have vaccinated most of their population.

Hard to know what to make of that apart from outrage that other countries might be getting "the stash" first. Ours are on target to arrive in mid-February as has been suggested for a few weeks.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/astrazeneca-tells-hse-vaccine-deliveries-can-be-expected-by-mid-february-1.4462656

On that fire BTW the company said vaccine production would not be affected.

stephenjmcd

braychelsea wrote: »

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/astrazenca-duerfte-nur-einen-bruchteil-impfstoff-liefern/401164989
"Bad news from the vaccination front: Because the EU is taking so long to approve Astra Zeneca, Europeans will initially receive less vaccine. For Austria this means that we will now only get 600,000 vaccine doses instead of 2,000,000 in the first quarter.

According to insiders, the health authorities were informed of this major change today - after a video conference with representatives from Astra Zeneca. Because Astra is now apparently delivering to other countries outside the EU."

Christ, fairly awful from the EU. I know the EMA needs to take its time but I think we will be left counting the losses come summer when the UK and USA have vaccinated most of their population.

Not sure thats accurate as to how its being reported, it's not something countries would have only found out today to start with.

It was said the other day that Ireland for example gets 600,000 doses in Q1. Q1 ends at the end of March,so 600,000 doses in a month and a half is an awful lot with higher volumes to come.

partyguinness

braychelsea wrote: »

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/astrazenca-duerfte-nur-einen-bruchteil-impfstoff-liefern/401164989
"Bad news from the vaccination front: Because the EU is taking so long to approve Astra Zeneca, Europeans will initially receive less vaccine. For Austria this means that we will now only get 600,000 vaccine doses instead of 2,000,000 in the first quarter.

According to insiders, the health authorities were informed of this major change today - after a video conference with representatives from Astra Zeneca. Because Astra is now apparently delivering to other countries outside the EU."

Christ, fairly awful from the EU. I know the EMA needs to take its time but I think we will be left counting the losses come summer when the UK and USA have vaccinated most of their population.

TBH I would trust the EU authorities over the US and UK any day of the week and I would trust them to get it right first time. It's hard to know who has been worse the UK or the US so to a large extent they are both scrambling to make up for the mess.

braychelsea

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not sure thats accurate as to how its being reported, it's not something countries would have only found out today to start with.

It was said the other day that Ireland for example gets 600,000 doses in Q1. Q1 ends at the end of March,so 600,000 doses in a month and a half is an awful lot with higher volumes to come.

Hopefully that's the case but given Austria have 2x the population and are only getting 600,000 doses it looks like we might only get half of that after today's announcement. Hopefully I'm proven wrong

stephenjmcd

braychelsea wrote: »

Hopefully that's the case but given Austria have 2x the population and are only getting 600,000 doses it looks like we might only get half of that after today's announcement. Hopefully I'm proven wrong

Its been stated multiple times AZ have been in direct discussion with countries regarding delivery. If they've said 600,000 to Ireland less than 48hrs ago then that isn't likely to change.

Sounds to me like some countries have found out later than others they aren't getting what they expected as an initial volume and are kicking up.

Personally I wouldn't be too worried about Q1, by the time the first AZ delivery comes out there'll be about 5 weeks left in Q1, add in the increased production capacity of Pfizer & BioNTech and you've a decent pool of vaccines.

AZ statement this evening,

AstraZeneca said there was no “scheduled delay” to the start of shipments of its vaccines, but “initial volumes” would “be lower than originally anticipated due to reduced yields at a manufacturing site within our European supply chain”.

“We will be supplying tens of millions of doses in February and March to the EU, as we continue to ramp up production volumes,” the company added.

is_that_so

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its been stated multiple times AZ have been in direct discussion with countries regarding delivery. If they've said 600,000 to Ireland less than 48hrs ago then that isn't likely to change.

Sounds to me like some countries have found out they aren't getting what they expected as an initial volume and are kicking up.

AZ statement this evening,

AstraZeneca said there was no “scheduled delay” to the start of shipments of its vaccines, but “initial volumes” would “be lower than originally anticipated due to reduced yields at a manufacturing site within our European supply chain”.

“We will be supplying tens of millions of doses in February and March to the EU, as we continue to ramp up production volumes,” the company added.

TBH it looks increasingly like our plan is sound, has been thought through, is flexible enough to deal with setbacks and will ultimately get to where the HSE want it, at 1m doses a month. I also think communication around it has stepped up since the start of the year.

At this point it should probably be considered to just try and get the infrastructure and logistics sorted to get everyone over 60 and those under that age in high risk categories the Pfizer one.

They seem to be relying on AZ for the over 70s cohort via GP and pharmacy because of the easy logistics but we'll have a lot more Pfizer than AZ in the next 3 months so that no longer makes sense if we want to get those groups done as quick as we can.

stephenjmcd

is_that_so wrote: »

TBH it looks increasingly like our plan is sound, has been thought through, is flexible enough to deal with setbacks and will ultimately get to what the HSE want it at 1m doses a month. I also think communication around it has stepped up since the start of the year.

I think the thing that's made our plan look sound is that its immediate future is based only on what they know is approved and has confirmed deliveries, everything is fluid, when additional supply come on stream only then does it get factored in.

The long term comments recently of offering a vaccine to everyone by September is based on projections, and projections that will probably be accurate but the immediate future up to end of Q1 is based on what we know we'll have.

Compared to some other countries who have appeared to have factored in unapproved vaccines and their suggested supply load into the short term projections.

Easier to plan with what you have and then adjust as more become available, that way if expected supply doesn't matteralise you don't look like you've overpromised and under delivered

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At this point it should probably be considered to just try and get the infrastructure and logistics sorted to get everyone over 60 and those under that age in high risk categories the Pfizer one.

They seem to be relying on AZ for the over 70s cohort via GP and pharmacy because of the easy logistics but we'll have a lot more Pfizer than AZ in the next 3 months so that no longer makes sense if we want to get those groups done as quick as we can.

They'll probably be around the same in delivery load for the next month or two.

Pfizer is weekly, AZ will be monthly, just on rough numbers I'd say they come pretty close to each other.

landofthetree

partyguinness wrote: »

TBH I would trust the EU authorities over the US and UK any day of the week and I would trust them to get it right first time. It's hard to know who has been worse the UK or the US so to a large extent they are both scrambling to make up for the mess.

The EU has a higher death rate per capita than the USA.

stephenjmcd

WHO & Pfizer have done a deal for an initial 40 million doses for poorer countries through Covax

Icantthinkof1

Will people who were due to get their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine be delayed as people who have already received their 1st vaccination will now be due their 2nd?

CIARAN_BOYLE

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

Will people who were due to get their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine be delayed as people who have already received their 1st vaccination will now be due their 2nd?

I don't believe people will be given appointments for the Pfizer vaccine if there isn't vaccines available for them.

Very few will be getting first doses of vaccines as many will be getting second doses.

Micky 32

The new RTE main headline :

“Evidence that new variant is more deadly”- Boris Johnson.


Also : Meanwhile, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said "there is evidence in the public domain" that the South African coronavirus variant "reduces by about 50%" vaccine efficacy.

Gael23

I read something earlier in the week about discussions to move people with very high risk conditions who fall into group 7 to higher priority. Does anyone here know more about that?

JP Liz V1

https://twitter.com/paulcolgan/status/1352667533111910400

leahyl

Micky 32 wrote: »

The new RTE main headline :

“Evidence that new variant is more deadly”- Boris Johnson.


Also : Meanwhile, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said "there is evidence in the public domain" that the South African coronavirus variant "reduces by about 50%" vaccine efficacy.

This is just a never ending nightmare :-(

greenheep

Micky 32 wrote: »

The new RTE main headline :

“Evidence that new variant is more deadly”- Boris Johnson.


Also : Meanwhile, British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said "there is evidence in the public domain" that the South African coronavirus variant "reduces by about 50%" vaccine efficacy.

So does that mean its only 45% effective now? That wouldn't even have passed the approval threshold if it was just tested on that variant

Micky 32

leahyl wrote: »

This is just a never ending nightmare :-(

To be honest i have just given up.

lbj666

Hmmzis wrote: »

The latest on transmissibility of the UK variant:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/22january2021#positive-tests-that-are-compatible-with-the-new-uk-variant

It does not look like it's all that much more transmissible than the original. It's taking a nosedive in England, increasing in Scotland and NI while staying at same rates in Wales (relative to the other types).

Is it possible that measures to contain the virus were adhered to more in locations where it was known that the new strain was prevalent, hence the bigger fall.

UK have just had an absolutely stinker of a press conference throwing out every worst case scenario there is.