COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

namloc1980

The bad news is just relentless at the moment. It's very demoralising.

is_that_so

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Is that confirmed?

The cynic in me says Oxford has been keeping as many doses as they possibly could for the UK, and that's another reason they didn't bother their arse trying to get European approval quicker.

It seems to be a production issue. The effect on our programme of this delay has yet to be confirmed here officially.

is_that_so

namloc1980 wrote: »

The bad news is just relentless at the moment. It's very demoralising.

The only actual bad news at present is the AstraZeneca delay, the rest of the news on the variants is based on very still limited information but is sending people into spirals. BionTech say that they can tweak in weeks if necessary and Oxford are looking at how to rapidly produce versions that can address variants dodging the immune response.

namloc1980

is_that_so wrote: »

The only actual bad news at present is the AstraZeneca delay, the rest of the news on the variants is based on very still limited information but is sending people into spirals. BionTech say that they can tweak in weeks if necessary and Oxford are looking at how to rapidly produce versions that can address variants dodging the immune response.

If the vaccines need to be tweaked to account for new variants, what does that mean for the 100k+ people who have already got their jabs here?

Miike

is_that_so wrote: »

BionTech say that they can tweak in weeks if necessary and Oxford are looking at how to rapidly produce versions that can address variants dodging the immune response.

I wonder what approval looks like for this. Does this require another RCT?

is_that_so

namloc1980 wrote: »

If the vaccines need to be tweaked to account for new variants, what does that mean for the 100k+ people who have already got their jabs here?

All pretty unknown at this point although Pfizer/Biontech say the B.1.1.7 one is not an issue for theirs. It doesn't stop people wildly speculating on the absolute worst case. Given how on edge everyone is about vaccine supplies any morsel of possibility is now pounced on as fact. We need a lot more data.

mirrorwall14

tippilot wrote: »

The Q1 allocation is reduced by 60%. 31 million doses will be delivered instead of 80 million. The 31 million will be delivered over roughly 6 weeks from mid Feb. Production will ramp up in Feb/March for increased deliveries in Q2. However, AZ's credibility to deliver is now in question and the EU has requested a concrete delivery schedule.

In practical terms for Ireland, based on 1.1% of the EU allocation, it would mean a reduction in doses from an expected 800,000+ to 340,000. It pretty much kills any chance of vaccinating 700,000 people by end of March. MM last night estimated roughly 1 million vaccinated by June, which is disastrous if true. Hopefully a vast underestimation.

That’s a reduction of 1/2 million doses. Darn it.
I’m very high risk working from home. Selfishly this stings. I had really hoped I’d be back in school in May but that really doesn’t seem likely

Doctor Jimbob

is_that_so wrote: »

All pretty unknown at this point although Pfizer/Biontech say the B.1.1.7 one is not an issue for theirs. It doesn't stop people wildly speculating on the absolute worst case. Given how on edge everyone is about vaccine supplies any morsel of possibility is now pounced on as fact. We need a lot more data.

Yeah, people need to calm down a bit and wait until we have more information. This is all a bit like around this time last year when people were getting worked up over 20% fatality rates and people dropping dead in the streets. I'm not trying to play down the fact we're in a ****ty situation, we absolutely are, but these worst case scenario fears are unlikely to happen.

is_that_so

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Yeah, people need to calm down a bit and wait until we have more information. This is all a bit like around this time last year when people were getting worked up over 20% fatality rates and people dropping dead in the streets. I'm not trying to play down the fact we're in a ****ty situation, we absolutely are, but these worst case scenario fears are unlikely to happen.

I do think people need to remind themselves that the rules and methods that have applied to us for a year still apply. Even with a fully running vaccination programme they'd remain for a good while longer. We should start to see better news on hospitals quite soon ,hopefully combined with a good fall-off in cases.

Itsaduck1

is_that_so wrote: »

The only actual bad news at present is the AstraZeneca delay, the rest of the news on the variants is based on very still limited information but is sending people into spirals. BionTech say that they can tweak in weeks if necessary and Oxford are looking at how to rapidly produce versions that can address variants dodging the immune response.

Would be a bit scary if that's true and its what causing the delays

Aren't Pfizer due a production slow down or break too, read something on that last week, could they also be tweaking something like Oxford? Why can't they just be open about it, if it is true? What about the people that got vaccinated already, is it safe to vaccinate them again so soon, most of them are elderly and not in great health anyway

salmocab

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Would be a bit scary if that's true and its what causing the delays

Aren't Pfizer due a production slow down or break too, read something on that last week, could they also be tweaking something like Oxford? Why can't they just be open about it, if it is true? What about the people that got vaccinated already, is it safe to vaccinate them again so soon, most of them are elderly and not in great health anyway

Pfizer have explained what they are doing

stephenjmcd

I think everyone needs to step back a minute from the AstraZeneca news and realise they've a month to get it sorted as we stand & although people see the Q1 headline, its realistically only a 5 week period that would be left in Q1 after first delivery.

For example this morning now its being said they'll be meeting with Dept health and EU officials next week in a bid to get the issue resolved.

Much like when Pfizer was initially a 3-4 week slow down, that then only turned out to be 1 week after discussions took place.

Its not unrealistic at all to have a million vaccinated by June, now I can't stand MM but he seems very rigid in how he sees the next few months playing out and has continually been referring to June in the last few weeks, he's done it again this morning, from the Independent - It will be a different society, a bit more freer,” he said. “We will have greater choices to make in terms of what we open.”

stephenjmcd

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Would be a bit scary if that's true and its what causing the delays

Aren't Pfizer due a production slow down or break too, read something on that last week, could they also be tweaking something like Oxford? Why can't they just be open about it, if it is true? What about the people that got vaccinated already, is it safe to vaccinate them again so soon, most of them are elderly and not in great health anyway

Pfizer had a 1 week temporary slowdown and explained why they were doing it.

Deliveries due to be back on track from next week with increased delivery through February

is_that_so

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Would be a bit scary if that's true and its what causing the delays

Aren't Pfizer due a production slow down or break too, read something on that last week, could they also be tweaking something like Oxford? Why can't they just be open about it, if it is true? What about the people that got vaccinated already, is it safe to vaccinate them again so soon, most of them are elderly and not in great health anyway

We are in that slow down at the moment while Biontech start up a new plant. Just the next week or so AFAIK then we'll be back on track. The possible concern about the new variants is how they MIGHT affect the efficacy of vaccines, not that they'll suddenly stop working. It's unknown at present but a fact if you look at media reports.

MerlinSouthDub

Interesting that a large high quality trial of Invermectin is going to take place in the UK. I guess they must see some possibility of it making a difference:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trial-for-covid-wonder-drug-that-could-save-thousands-of-lives-99jc07v2s

is_that_so

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Interesting that a large high quality trial of Invermectin is going to take place in the UK. I guess they must see some possibility of it making a difference:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trial-for-covid-wonder-drug-that-could-save-thousands-of-lives-99jc07v2s

Good to see this possible repurposing of drugs is still happening. So far all we've seen on that is a group of US doctors claiming it worked on their patients and a very small study in Bangladesh.

Itsaduck1

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Interesting that a large high quality trial of Invermectin is going to take place in the UK. I guess they must see some possibility of it making a difference:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/trial-for-covid-wonder-drug-that-could-save-thousands-of-lives-99jc07v2s

Is that the same stuff we give cattle? That you can get at the vets in a paste? Be amazing if that works.

Whats considered works though?

If someone is very sick, not much can be done? Even things like tamiflu has to be taken early for influenza and antibiotics/steriods only help if youve got bad pneumonia.

They need to be clear on there works results

JacksonHeightsOwn

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Is that the same stuff we give cattle? That you can get at the vets in a paste? Be amazing if that works.

Whats considered works though?

If someone is very sick, not much can be done? Even things like tamiflu has to be taken early for influenza and antibiotics/steriods only help if youve got bad pneumonia.

They need to be clear on there works results

I have pigeons and we give it to them to rid them of worms, oddly enough.....

Itsaduck1

chrisbonnie wrote: »

I have pigeons and we give it to them to rid them of worms, oddly enough.....

Yeah

I can remember my uncle giving it to his cows with a syringe thingy in the mouth, had no idea it was for humans too, reading about it now, does sound good

HalfAndHalf

Wolf359f wrote: »

Don't lie, they didn't decide this week to bring forward the date for approval to the 29th, that was decided on the 12th, the week before that.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-receives-application-conditional-marketing-authorisation-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca
Which looks to be the same day they received an application for approval from Astrazenca. The EMA cannot approve a vaccine before the manufacturer applies for it FFS!

And yes other countries have approved AZ, the list is:
UK, Argentina, El Salvador, Dominican Republic, India, Bangladesh, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Hungary, Thailand
Do go making out like the EU will be the last to approve it.
That's 13 countries, 12 countries have also approved the Russian Sputnik Vaccine, shall we just go ahead and approve that without any checks?

Oh so sorry, last week so LOL....either way, in the midst of the worst global pandemic since the Spanish flu, the EU prove yet again that they cannot move quickly on important issues!

Oh, and don’t call me a liar because I was a few days out on something, if, according to you, everyone is a liar because they get something as small as being SIX days out on a date then you must have a very small circle of friends!

You and I won’t agree though judging by your enormous leap to the defence of your clearly beloved EU......that fact is they’ve got it wrong, acted too slowly and now the people have to pay the price!

Show me where I stated that the EU would be the last to approve it? Now who’s lying!!!

Additionally, the EMA had plenty of time to review and approve on the same day as approval was requested, why waste weeks? Again......no organisation just dragging of heals!

As for your Sputnik comment, that’s just idiotic!!

brickster69

"Norway received news on Friday it would receive only 18% of the vaccine doses it had anticipated from AstraZeneca in February - 200,000 doses instead of the planned 1.12 million."

https://www.fhi.no/nyheter/2021/lavere-leveranse-av-astrazeneca-i-februar/

eoinbn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I think everyone needs to step back a minute from the AstraZeneca news and realise they've a month to get it sorted as we stand & although people see the Q1 headline, its realistically only a 5 week period that would be left in Q1 after first delivery.

For example this morning now its being said they'll be meeting with Dept health and EU officials next week in a bid to get the issue resolved.

Much like when Pfizer was initially a 3-4 week slow down, that then only turned out to be 1 week after discussions took place.

Its not unrealistic at all to have a million vaccinated by June, now I can't stand MM but he seems very rigid in how he sees the next few months playing out and has continually been referring to June in the last few weeks, he's done it again this morning, from the Independent - It will be a different society, a bit more freer,” he said. “We will have greater choices to make in terms of what we open.”

How are EU officials going to resolve a production issue? They are going to vent. Right now we only know about delays for Q1 but the problem could persist into Q2.
The 700k vaccinated by the end of March is now very unlikely.
The June/September timeline is still possible but requires everything to go to plan. This seems very unlikely given the number of moving parts and the delays we have already seen.

stephenjmcd

eoinbn wrote: »

How are EU officials going to resolve a production issue? They are going to vent.

The same can be said with regards to Pfizer, how did they manage to get a 4 week slow down to a 1 week slow down and more deliveries to come. Discussions resolved a production issue there so let's see what comes out of it before coming to conclusions.

Also 700k by the end of March isn't unrealistic to be honest. We're up at above 100k as it is with Pfizer delivering in much larger quantities through Feb & March along with a reduced AstraZeneca delivery and Moderna there is still every chance of 700k having got a first jab.

Wolf359f

HalfAndHalf wrote: »

Oh so sorry, last week so LOL....either way, in the midst of the worst global pandemic since the Spanish flu, the EU prove yet again that they cannot move quickly on important issues!

Oh, and don’t call me a liar because I was a few days out on something, if, according to you, everyone is a liar because they get something as small as being SIX days out on a date then you must have a very small circle of friends!

You and I won’t agree though judging by your enormous leap to the defence of your clearly beloved EU......that fact is they’ve got it wrong, acted too slowly and now the people have to pay the price!

Show me where I stated that the EU would be the last to approve it? Now who’s lying!!!

Additionally, the EMA had plenty of time to review and approve on the same day as approval was requested, why waste weeks? Again......no organisation just dragging of heals!

As for your Sputnik comment, that’s just idiotic!!

You're saying the EU is acting too slow. They received the application on Jan 12th and should have a decision on the 29th (17 days) so you being out by 6 days is a lot in the scheme of things. The UK took 7 days to approve for emergency use. Even they didn't just rubber stamp the application the same day as it was received.

The EMA has a duty of care to ensure Vaccines are effective and safe, they can't just assume because the UK approved it, it's fine for mass roll out.
Yes delays cost lives, but mistakes also cost lives.

Wolf359f

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The same can be said with regards to Pfizer, how did they manage to get a 4 week slow down to a 1 week slow down and more deliveries to come. Discussions resolved a production issue there so let's see what comes out of it before coming to conclusions.

First it was we'll never have a vaccine for a coronavirus.
Then it was it will take years.
Then the expected 60% efficiency turns out to be 95% and anything below the 95% is seen as not effective enough!
Then it's too slow to be approved.
Then it's the HSE will mess the roll out up and we'll be last in the EU.
Now any delay reported has people climbing the walls.
At least it look's like the take up will be quite high.

pinkfloyd34

https://kclr96fm.com/iehg-statement-vaccine/

Still front line staff waiting for their first dose and now won't get it until mid February.

HalfAndHalf

Wolf359f wrote: »

You're saying the EU is acting too slow. They received the application on Jan 12th and should have a decision on the 29th (17 days) so you being out by 6 days is a lot in the scheme of things. The UK took 7 days to approve for emergency use. Even they didn't just rubber stamp the application the same day as it was received.

The EMA has a duty of care to ensure Vaccines are effective and safe, they can't just assume because the UK approved it, it's fine for mass roll out.
Yes delays cost lives, but mistakes also cost lives.

Right so you’ve ignored everything else in my post and tried to steer the narrative to your extremely weak defence of the EU dragging their heals.

See what you want, you clearly do, but the fact remains that all of the information for approval was available for the EMA to have decided on approval by the 12th.

Not sure why you’re even replying to me seeing as I’m a liar and all that.

stephenjmcd

Wolf359f wrote: »

First it was we'll never have a vaccine for a coronavirus.
Then it was it will take years.
Then it's too slow to be approved.
Then it's the HSE will mess the roll out up and we'll be last in the EU.
Now any delay reported has people climbing the walls.
At least it look's like the take up will be quite high.

Yes I was thinking that myself to be honest. The same people who were saying it'll take years and the same ones complaining if theres a glitch in rollout, its quite ironic really.

I'd rather the EMA do a comprehensive review and take their time than in 2 months time having to turn around and say stop vaccinating we overlooked something, now that would be a mess and completely undermine any vacination programme.

All we can do is wait and see what happens, like I said discussions turned Pfizer from a 4 week slow down to 1 week, let's see how discussions play out here.

eoinbn

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The same can be said with regards to Pfizer, how did they manage to get a 4 week slow down to a 1 week slow down and more deliveries to come. Discussions resolved a production issue there so let's see what comes out of it before coming to conclusions.

The issue at the pfizer plant was due to an upgrade required to increase production - due to an increase orders from the EU. They could well have agreed to delay part of the upgrade until production else where can cover the shortfall. That would still lead to slower deliveries over the long term but less of an immediate hit.
There is no silver-lining in any of the reports on the AZ issue. They aren't going slower to go fast later.

namloc1980

Wolf359f wrote: »

First it was we'll never have a vaccine for a coronavirus.
Then it was it will take years.
Then the expected 60% efficiency turns out to be 95% and anything below the 95% is seen as not effective enough!
Then it's too slow to be approved.
Then it's the HSE will mess the roll out up and we'll be last in the EU.
Now any delay reported has people climbing the walls.
At least it look's like the take up will be quite high.

In fairness people are just sick of it now. Truly sick of it. I'm finding it very hard going this time around and the media aren't helping with the constant doom. It's depressing at this stage.