COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Polar101

brickster69 wrote: »

Obviously the roll out will get ramped up. Certainly hope it does in Hungary.

Not sure what they're doing at Politico, some of these articles are just brainless.

"Can you drive from Dublin to Belfast in 2 hours if you don't exceed 40km/h? No chance! It will take at least 4 hours, it's a disgrace and the trip planner has made a complete mess of it."

Water John

Melanchthon wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1353383535978172416

Good news from the UK, though there is few second doses being given. It wouldn't take a huge increase of the vacinated rate for the UK to reach a point where they could have a proper summer with very limited restrictions

Dr John Campbell has it today that, if the UK ramps up a little more, as it's supposed to do, it will have vaccinated the first four at risk groups by the 14th Feb.

odyssey06

Water John wrote: »

Dr John Campbell has it today that, if the UK ramps up a little more, as it's supposed to do, it will have vaccinated the first four at risk groups by the 14th Feb.

Fully vaccinated or single dosed though?

brickster69

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Has there been any deliveries of Moderna since that initial small batch?

A good article on things here

https://www.ft.com/content/c9bbc753-97fb-493a-bbb6-dd97a7c4b807

Water John

odyssey06 wrote: »

Fully vaccinated or single dosed though?

Not sure but something over 15M. If they keep going at present pace they'll be just over 13M. Think it's one for two reasons, they are going with the big gap between doses and Campbell is quite happy with the efficacy of one dose.
BTW family member has just got 2nd Pfizer shot this week. A lot having to take one day off to recover. You do know you've got it. But that's a minor price.

Deeper Blue

odyssey06 wrote: »

Fully vaccinated or single dosed though?

I'm fairly certain that's the single dosed figure. Still impressive all the same

Bubbaclaus

brickster69 wrote: »

A good article on things here

https://www.ft.com/content/c9bbc753-97fb-493a-bbb6-dd97a7c4b807

Thanks but that article is coming up subscription only and I'm well aware of the EU delays. Does it mention anything about Moderna deliveries that have arrived in ireland?

funnydoggy

From reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/l3qdrh/new_mutations_raise_specter_of_immune_escape/)

Clickbait, sensationalist piece.

In Manaus, the seroprevalence was likely grossly overestimated: the sample population was non representative. It was made up of blood donors and it is also likely that some people also participated with the perspective of a free test, further skewing the representativeness. The results were already on the high side (44% if I'm not mistaken), and it was then extrapolated to > 70%.

Then, the reason of the high incidence in Manaus is likely the fact that instead most of the population was in fact **not** exposed to the virus. But the article does not mention that.

On the variants, I refer to https://reddit.com/comments/l3cpu0/comment/gke3tzy which I wrote yesterday. Also let's remember that without tests on cell based immunity you can't talk about "immune escape".

For the record, B 1.1.7 was already tested with vaccinated sera (see previous posts on this sub), showing, depending on the reference (Wuhan Hu-1 or D614G) either no change or a significant but *minor* decrease (at least after first vaccine dose; tests on sera after second dose are being done) in neutralization activity.

The presence of 3 out of 4 key mutations in 501Y.V2 gives a minor decrease in neutralization activity (yet another preprint posted in this sub). Soon we should have the tests with the full variant.

I'm a layman but I can kinda understand this. Good piece on why we shouldn't be too worried.

brickster69

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Thanks but that article is coming up subscription only and I'm well aware of the EU delays. Does it mention anything about Moderna deliveries that have arrived in ireland?

Strange, no paywall for me.

Anyway " The EU may benefit from a bump in supply later in the year, once Moderna, the US biotech, raises its production. The EU has ordered 160m doses, "

Bubbaclaus

brickster69 wrote: »

Strange, no paywall for me.

Anyway " The EU may benefit from a bump in supply later in the year, once Moderna, the US biotech, raises its production. The EU has ordered 160m doses, "

Thanks, I know how many doses are ordered. Was wondering about supply received to date. As far as I know it is still just the initial delivery of under 4k.

Gael23

brickster69 wrote: »

Strange, no paywall for me.

Anyway " The EU may benefit from a bump in supply later in the year, once Moderna, the US biotech, raises its production. The EU has ordered 160m doses, "

What do they mean by “Later in the year”

franciscanpunk

Kivaro wrote: »

Shouldn't we applaud that rather than exhibit what some may call begrudgery?
Well done to them if they do achieve that milestone before the EU. It will actually benefit us here in Ireland a great deal.

Of course your right, begrudgery is not a good characteriatic and should be avoided, sometimes it can be hard though!

I can just see them selling to the British people as brexit spin off victory, look at us benefitting from not being in the EU with our quick decisions and lack of red tape, we can take on the world alone the empire rises again thing. Whether there be any truth to that or not.

If we were very far behind they could see our open border as a big threat to their plan to eliminate COVID in its current form and offer us excess vaccines. Would the EU allow that I dont know. All speculation on a situation that will probably never occur I just find it interesting.

brickster69

Gael23 wrote: »

What do they mean by “Later in the year”

No idea, just quoting the article.

brickster69

Gael23 wrote: »

What do they mean by “Later in the year”

Sounds like a lack of production capacity with Moderna. Germany has purchased 50 million of the total because a few countries never took up it's full allocation because of pricing.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-regulator-green-lights-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-for-use/

Stark

brickster69 wrote: »

Sounds like a lack of production capacity with Moderna. Germany has purchased 50 million of the total because a few countries never took up it's full allocation because of pricing.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-regulator-green-lights-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-for-use/

Such a bizarre and short sighted decision on the part of countries who passed it up. $18 a dose? That's like what, 2 or 3 hours of PUP payment?

brickster69

Stark wrote: »

Such a bizarre and short sighted decision on the part of countries who passed it up. $18 a dose? That's like what, 2 or 3 hours of PUP payment?

How many did Ireland order ?

markodaly

funnydoggy wrote: »

A tiny setback and people are livid and calling this whole situation a disaster.

People are counting their chickens before they hatch. The fact that we have not one, but multiple extremely efficacious vaccines either approved or soon to be approved is amazing in itself. We are getting there every day with effective treatments. Our cases are dropping by the day and we are heading into good weather which will more than likely mean much lower community transmission. All this talk of variants being more lethal, evading vaccines etc. isn't even confirmed.

Breathe folks, we're close to the end of this nightmare.

I get it that people see or want to see an end to the current restrictions, but I get the feeling that Europe wide, the reality is sinking in that they will not be able to vaccinate their way out of this issue this year, for various reasons, especially the new varients that are popping up and will continue to pop up.

Stark

brickster69 wrote: »

How many did Ireland order ?

Ireland used its full allocation afaik.

markodaly

Cork2021 wrote: »

100% we’ll be back to full on normal by September at the latest!!
Seriously I’ve stopped listening to the political side of things as much as possible.
Follow the positive scientists and Twitter good news sites!
Keep the head up! I’ve gone form open the pubs to being very pragmatic but positive about the future!
Fûck the rest!

How do you know this?
You don't, in fact, no one does.

This is an evolving situation that requires measures to counter new strains and variants that are going to emerge.

brickster69

Stark wrote: »

Ireland used its full allocation afaik.

Good news

harrylittle

HANK AARON DIES AFTER COVID VACCINEhttp://www.bitchute.com/video/gd9IzndYqRZz/

Bubbaclaus

harrylittle wrote: »

HANK AARON DIES AFTER COVID VACCINEhttp://www.bitchute.com/video/gd9IzndYqRZz/

Why are you posting links to a far right holocaust denial website?

Wolf359f

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Why are you posting links to a far right holocaust denial website?

LOL I thought the same thing. Maybe that's just the OP go to news site?

brickster69

Stark wrote: »

Ireland used its full allocation afaik.

Half this year and the rest next.


https://www.redfm.ie/news/coronavirus/immunologist-plans-to-vaccinate-majority-of-people-by-end-of-summer-an-almost-insurmountable-task/

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

How do you know this?
You don't, in fact, no one does.

This is an evolving situation that requires measures to counter new strains and variants that are going to emerge.

If you think we are going to endure permant lockdown you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It seems some would love the idea for whatever their agenda is. If they don’t feck up the roll out by the autumn this place will be a lot different..

There’s no evidence of the new strains being resistant to vaccines. If this particular virus mutates too much it will weaken losing it’s functionality. Secondly vaccines can be tweaked as future roll out continues.

Bit cynical

brickster69 wrote: »

A good article on things here

https://www.ft.com/content/c9bbc753-97fb-493a-bbb6-dd97a7c4b807

Has the EU bulk deal been beneficial to the member states overall? We know that the US, the UK, a couple of Gulf states and of course Israel are way ahead in their rollout but if we look at what has been achieved by the EU itself we see the likes of Turkey and Switzerland in among the general range of EU countries. In particular the tiny country of Serbia is above the EU average for rollout and will probably surpass Ireland in the next couple of days.

From that article:

He [EU Commission spokesman, Eric Mamer] said it was “quite astonishing” that some people were asking why all doses were not immediately available, pointing to predicted manufacturing constraints, which meant distribution around the EU would gradually build up until a “big delivery” around April.

Seems a very arrogant position to take.



Here's the full chart with Isreal, and the UK included.

markodaly

Micky 32 wrote: »

If you think we are going to endure permant lockdown you’re going to be sorely disappointed. It seems some would love the idea for whatever their agenda is. If they don’t feck up the roll out by autumn this place will be a lot different..

There’s no evidence of the new strains being resistant to vaccines. If this particular virus mutates too much it will weaken losing it’s functionality. Secondly vaccines can be tweaked as future roll out continues.

There is a sliding scale here of permanent level 5 lockdowns and what life was like in Feb 2020.
Those thinking that we will be back to Feb 2020 type of living, come September will be disappointed, I think.

Sure, getting more people vaccinated will means life can ease back to something more normal, but there are still so many unknowns and so many things to sort out before we can ever think about normality.

Travel passports and quarantining and PCR tests will be the norm for a few years.

People are forgetting, that this virus didn't originate in Ireland, it came here via a person who travelled into the country. The rest of the world will be nowhere near vaccinated by the end of this year, and probably not the year after. That leads to the question, how can we protect ourselves from future variants going forward?
That is a hard question that no one really has the answer to yet.

On the last point, the South African variant is more adaptable to be able to reduce the efficacy of current vaccines. That is what the data is suggesting.
The Brazilian variant appears, from the limited data we have to a step up again.

It is inevitable that future varients will evolve given the virus is now endemic.

Ok, sure we can tweak vaccines to try and counter that, but that is what I am saying. We could be in a position come December 2021, where we have 85% of the population vaccinated, and some other variant has emerged that renders much of it useless, so we need to vaccinate the entire country again with the latest and greatest vaccines, that counter that variant.

The EU had a meeting on Thursday, and I think the penny dropped for many there, that there is a long way to go yet until we all, as in the world has this under control.

Micky 32

markodaly wrote: »

There is a sliding scale here of permanent level 5 lockdowns and what life was like in Feb 2020.
Those thinking that we will be back to Feb 2020 type of living, come September will be disappointed, I think.

Sure, getting more people vaccinated will means life can ease back to something more normal, but there are still so many unknowns and so many things to sort out before we can ever think about normality.

Travel passports and quarantining and PCR tests will be the norm for a few years.

People are forgetting, that this virus didn't originate in Ireland, it came here via a person who travelled into the country. The rest of the world will be nowhere near vaccinated by the end of this year, and probably not the year after. That leads to the question, how can we protect ourselves from future variants going forward?
That is a hard question that no one really has the answer to yet.

On the last point, the South African variant is more adaptable to be able to reduce the efficacy of current vaccines. That is what the data is suggesting.
The Brazilian variant appears, from the limited data we have to a step up again.

It is inevitable that future varients will evolve given the virus is now endemic.

Ok, sure we can tweak vaccines to try and counter that, but that is what I am saying. We could be in a position come December 2021, where we have 85% of the population vaccinated, and some other variant has emerged that renders much of it useless, so we need to vaccinate the entire country again with the latest and greatest vaccines, that counter that variant.

The EU had a meeting on Thursday, and I think the penny dropped for many there, that there is a long way to go yet until we all, as in the world has this under control.

All the above you posted is only your opinion. Where are your links from a reputable source about the SA and Brazilian strain being actually resistant to current vaccines and actually proven?

Also you missed the part where i have said this particular virus can’t mutate too much without losing much of it’s functionality. So maybe these variants aren’t a bad thing, could be begining to weaken if it keeps mutating.

Wolf359f

Bit cynical wrote: »

Has the EU bulk deal been beneficial to the member states overall? We know that the US, the UK, a couple of Gulf states and of course Israel are way ahead in their rollout but if we look at what has been achieved by the EU itself we see the likes of Turkey and Switzerland in among the general range of EU countries. In particular the tiny country of Serbia is above the EU average for rollout and will probably surpass Ireland in the next couple of days.


From that article:

He [EU Commission spokesman, Eric Mamer] said it was “quite astonishing” that some people were asking why all doses were not immediately available, pointing to predicted manufacturing constraints, which meant distribution around the EU would gradually build up until a “big delivery” around April.

Seems a very arrogant position to take.

These rollout graphs are complete crap for countries starting off on their vaccine path. They all start with Pfizer or Moderna, a new vaccine which is completely new. You can't just scale up existing vaccine distribution with a new vaccine which requires new training and super cold storage. That's why I believe smaller countries appear to do better on the charts. You can drive the frozen vaccine from Dublin to anywhere in Ireland and it would still be frozen when you arrive. A larger country that's harder to do and the more distribution center's the slower it is to get started.

Not sure what you mean by the arrogant position comment.

Bit cynical

Wolf359f wrote: »

These rollout graphs are complete crap for countries starting off on their vaccine path. They all start with Pfizer or Moderna, a new vaccine which is completely new. You can't just scale up existing vaccine distribution with a new vaccine which requires new training and super cold storage. That's why I believe smaller countries appear to do better on the charts. You can drive the frozen vaccine from Dublin to anywhere in Ireland and it would still be frozen when you arrive. A larger country that's harder to do and the more distribution center's the slower it is to get started.

I'm not sure small size is a great advantage. Yes, if a large country operated in the same way as a small country they would be slower; but in practice, regional distribution centres would be set up so that the driving is not done from the capital city but from one of these local centres. Effectively the large country would be operating as many small countries.

If what you were saying had a basis in reality then countries like Canada or Australia would not have a hope of distributing the vaccine to its population in any reasonable time frame. But that is not the case and we see Canada with its vast land area up there with most much smaller EU countries.

Not sure what you mean by the arrogant position comment.

It seemed to me to be a dismissal of legitimate criticism. If Trump had used the same sort of excuse people would jump on him and rightly so, yet under Trump (and now Biden) performance has been better than the EU.

So I would repeat the question, is there any data showing that Eu countries are benefiting having their vaccine allocations handled by the EU as opposed to handling them individually?