COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

stephenjmcd

Gael23 wrote: »

Not good news from Merk. Was that vaccine part if the EU programme?

I dont believe there was any agreement on their vaccine, there has been talks around some of the therapy drugs I believe.

Mark1916

Gael23 wrote: »

Not good news from Merk. Was that vaccine part if the EU programme?

Nope!

Gael23

Mark1916 wrote: »

Nope!

Not major turmoil then. I wouldn’t line to be the Merck employee tasked with disposing of vaccine samples

titan18

EU should try and get Merck and another company to do a deal to produce other vaccines. Doesn't matter the cost really, just get their production capacity to be used on covid vaccines

NeuralNetwork

plodder wrote: »

Imagine the doom and gloom if they had reported this before the other successful ones..

If they license one of the successful ones to use their manufacturing capability then maybe it won't matter that much in the end.

They did actually. Sanofi and GSK had relatively weak results with their joint venture vaccine and they would have been considered the prime candidates to develop one as they're probably the two largest Western vaccine developers,

This is why I think you can't really blame the EU programme for spreading bets. The UK happened to get lucky with AstraZeneca, but they had backed GSK quite heavily too and that has amounted to nothing.

The EU assuming that Sanofi was going to come up with something isn't unreasonable. A few months ago the mRNA candidates weer considered outliers and were pretty niche. They've happened to be the most technically successful approaches but that was not immediately obvious in June and July.

I think you've had a lot of noise coming from BioNTech complaining that the EU hadn't ordered enough from them and Pfizer initially, but that's just the nature of spreading bets. They were one of a panel of different vaccines the programme had put money into and when they proved to be good, they got another big order.

marno21

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxford-developed-covid-vaccine-then-scholars-clashed-over-money-11603300412

You’d wonder how differently this could have turned out if Oxford’s original plan to work with Merck & Co had gone ahead.

Cork2021

We’ll see over the next day or so about the AstraZeneca supply issue.. strong words by Ursula Von Der Leyen

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1353677286000779265?s=21

NeuralNetwork

marno21 wrote: »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxford-developed-covid-vaccine-then-scholars-clashed-over-money-11603300412

You’d wonder how differently this could have turned out if Oxford’s original plan to work with Merck & Co had gone ahead.

Hard to know really. It might have been licensed more rapidly in the US though as Merck has bigger trail capability there and the FDA isn't willing to use non-US data.

It could be quite some time before the US FDA signs off on that.

NeuralNetwork

Cork2021 wrote: »

We’ll see over the next day or so about the AstraZeneca supply issue.. strong words by Ursula Von Der Leyen

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1353677286000779265?s=21

Cue: conspiracy theorists claiming its Brexit related vengeance and people suggesting Ireland should sign a deal with the UK, despite the fact that AstraZeneca is a private company and not the UK government.

Gile_na_gile

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What's interesting about J&J.... one of their trials was in South Africa.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/01/23/1016684/whether-jnj-vaccine-works-against-scary-south-african-coronavirus-variant/?utm_medium=tr_social&utm_campaign=site_visitor.unpaid.engagement&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1611377622

Interesting piece, with the following quote which links to what I was saying before - that in order to beat the virus we will have to suppress it and keep it and its variants out as well as running a vaccination campaign. This is essentially the zero covid response repeatedly rubbished in all Western countries except Aus/NZ because it clashes with our libertarian ideals, and in Europe, because of our fears that closed borders will mean the internal collapse of the single market. In practice, we are moving towards this strategy now following the recent EU report on variants. We will need both internal and external controls (i.e. proper ones like in Aus/NZ + ME + East Asia) until such time as we can first dismantle internal borders again, and later external ones at some much later date.

Some scientists now think that evolved variants are probably cropping up everywhere, not just in Britain and South Africa, but just haven’t been detected yet. “We expect as people increase genomic surveillance, multiple variants will be discovered, especially in places that have had a lot of cases for a long time,” says Tulio de Oliveira, who studies viral genomes at the University of Washington. “Unless we can suppress transmission to almost zero, the virus will keep outsmarting us.”

Gael23

Cork2021 wrote: »

We’ll see over the next day or so about the AstraZeneca supply issue.. strong words by Ursula Von Der Leyen

https://twitter.com/fergalbowers/status/1353677286000779265?s=21

What power has she though? If they can’t make the vaccines there’s little a politician can do about it

Micky 32

Gile_na_gile wrote: »

Interesting piece, with the following quote which links to what I was saying before - that in order to beat the virus we will have to suppress it and keep it and its variants out as well as running a vaccination campaign. This is essentially the zero covid response repeatedly rubbished in all Western countries except Aus/NZ because it clashes with our libertarian ideals, and in Europe, because of our fears that closed borders will mean the internal collapse of the single market. In practice, we are moving towards this strategy now following the recent EU report on variants. We will need both internal and external controls (i.e. proper ones like in Aus/NZ + ME + East Asia) until such time as we can first dismantle internal borders again, and later external ones at some much later date.

So basically permanent restrictions for the rest of our lives eh?

I’d be all for zero covid if it worked but all it will do is work if we permanently went into lockdown and permanently closed borders. It would only take one infected person in the whole world to start it all off again. Zero covid will not eradicate the virus. It will always lurk in some corner ready to explode again.

If people take the vaccines that will be the better approach, protection from the virus while keeping restrictions until the vaccines kick in. But i do understand forever restrictions are a wet dream for some.

Panrich

Gael23 wrote: »

What power has she though? If they can’t make the vaccines there’s little a politician can do about it

They've already been paid three figure millions of Euro to supply vaccines so she has plenty of recourse if she wants to go that route.

titan18

Gael23 wrote: »

What power has she though? If they can’t make the vaccines there’s little a politician can do about it

Probably depends on what's in the contract. If it's unambiguous about how much vaccines they need to supply and when they need to supply them by, and they're failing to meet that, EU could sue them into oblivion if they want to.

SheepsClothing

Micky 32 wrote: »

So basically permanent restrictions for the rest of our lives eh?

I’d be all for zero covid if it worked but all it will do is work if we permanently went into lockdown. It would only take one infected person in the whole world to start it all off again. Zero covid will not eradicate the virus. It will always lurk in some corner ready to explode again.

If people take the vaccines that will be the better approach, protection from the virus while keeping restrictions until the vaccines kick in. But i do understand forever restrictions are a wet dream for some.

Where does it say anything about restrictions for the rest of peoples lives?

There will be breakouts, but as long as they are aggressively tackled and stamped out, you can get back to zero in no time, as shown by the countries successfully following this strategy.

Micky 32

SheepsClothing wrote: »

There will be breakouts, but as long as they are aggressively tackled and stamped out, you can get back to zero in no time, as shown by the countries successfully following this strategy.

Exactly permanent rolling lockdowns. The vaccines are very effective.

snotboogie

Micky 32 wrote: »

So basically permanent restrictions for the rest of our lives eh?

I’d be all for zero covid if it worked but all it will do is work if we permanently went into lockdown. It would only take one infected person in the whole world to start it all off again. Zero covid will not eradicate the virus. It will always lurk in some corner ready to explode again.

If people take the vaccines that will be the better approach, protection from the virus. But i do understand forever restrictions are a wet dream for some.

Zero Covid isn't perfect but it's better than 90% lockdown to 50% lockdown over and over again. 99% locked down to 5% locked down is much better, particularly as Zero Covid countries spend much more time in the 5% than we do in the 50%.

Compare the Thai outbreak with Zero covid to our outbreak with rolling lockdowns. Ours started before Christmas and we are facing a 90% lockdown until April. The Thai outbreak started just before New Year and they are scheduling opening back up between the middle and the end of February. For Thailand opening up means no social distancing with full bars (and nightclubs!) and retail with no restrictions. For us "opening up" means retail and serves open with severe restrictions and full social distancing in effect. I have no idea how people think Zero Covid is more restrictive?

Micky 32

Jesus the hard on for restrictions and lockdowns on this thread.

dominatinMC

snotboogie wrote: »

Zero Covid isn't perfect but it's better than 90% lockdown to 50% lockdown over and over again. 99% locked down to 5% locked down is much better, particularly as Zero Covid countries spend much more time in the 5% than we do in the 50%.

Compare the Thai outbreak with Zero covid to our outbreak with rolling lockdowns. Ours started before Christmas and we are facing a 90% lockdown until April. The Thai outbreak started just before New Year and they are scheduling opening back up between the middle and the end of February. For Thailand opening up means no social distancing with full bars (and nightclubs!) and retail with no restrictions. For us "opening up" means retail and serves open with severe restrictions and full social distancing in effect. I have no idea how people think Zero Covid is more restrictive?

I think most would accept this approach whilst the vaccine programme was being delivered. And once we reach the critical mass of 70% vaccinated? What happens to zero covid then? Are borders to remain shut indefinitely until the virus is eradicated?

nommm

We are already in permanent lock down with little chance of relief till September! People are putting too much faith in the vaccination effort. We need to eliminate Covid if we want to have any kind of normality in the next few months before the completion of the vaccination campaign and the means mandatory quarantine is necessary.. December has already shown us what happens if you don’t stamp out community transmission.

Micky 32

dominatinMC wrote: »

I think most would accept this approach whilst the vaccine programme was being delivered. And once we reach the critical mass of 70% vaccinated? What happens to zero covid then? Are borders to remain shut indefinitely until the virus is eradicated?

Yes i would accept this also. But impressions i get from posters are they seem to think indefinately like there is no vaccine.

nommm

dominatinMC wrote: »

I think most would accept this approach whilst the vaccine programme was being delivered. And once we reach the critical mass of 70% vaccinated? What happens to zero covid then? Are borders to remain shut indefinitely until the virus is eradicated?

Zero covid is required till herd immunity is achieved through vaccination. Then we can start to open our borders to countries that have also completed the vaccination programme.

stephenjmcd

No offence to other posters and apologies to mods on advance if overstepping here but this thread seems to have diverted to zero covid which it isn't about.

Again apologies in advance if this is overstepping the line.

Micky 32

nommm wrote: »

We are already in permanent lock down with little chance of relief till September! People are putting too much faith in the vaccination effort. We need to eliminate Covid if we want to have any kind of normality in the next few months before the completion of the vaccination campaign and the means mandatory quarantine is necessary.. December has already shown us what happens if you don’t stamp out community transmission.

You can stamp out community transmission but guess what. It comes right back.

plodder

dominatinMC wrote: »

I think most would accept this approach whilst the vaccine programme was being delivered. And once we reach the critical mass of 70% vaccinated? What happens to zero covid then? Are borders to remain shut indefinitely until the virus is eradicated?

Rampant covid makes the vaccination campaign very messy, so it has to be suppressed now. Whatever the critical mass is, whenever we reach it, zero covid will be consigned to the rubbish heap, once and for all, imo.

Micky 32

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No offence to other posters and apologies to mods on advance if overstepping here but this thread seems to have diverted to zero covid which it isn't about.

Again apologies in advance if this is overstepping the line.

You are correct. I’m going to unfollow this thread until next September. By then we’ll be in a far better position

nommm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

No offence to other posters and apologies to mods on advance if overstepping here but this thread seems to have diverted to zero covid which it isn't about.

Again apologies in advance if this is overstepping the line.

I think its very relevant in relation to people's expectations about what impact we can expect from the vaccination effort in the next few months, something which is being highlighted again and again by public health efforts. But yes, we’ll probably end up going in circles if the discussion continues.

Micky 32

plodder wrote: »

Rampant covid makes the vaccination campaign very messy, so it has to be suppressed now. Whatever the critical mass is, whenever we reach it, zero covid will be consigned to the rubbish heap, once and for all, imo.

I completely agree that we need to supress it during the roll out but the impression from some posters are forever restrictions post vaccine.

ixoy

Has anyone gotten information on AZ's production capabilities across their various partner firms such as the different partners they're using, volumes, and who is delivering to whom. I would think it's information that the EU will want to see they're not being screwed over.

nommm

Anyway, the news from Merck this morning is making me even more grateful for the mRNA vaccines. If you had told me a year ago that Merck and Sanofi had failed and we were relying on biotech startups, I would have laughed.

It really highlights the importance of basic research, it would be great if the Irish government started funding this kind of research again, similar to what the US and Germany do.