COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

seamus

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Things don't make sense. The gp referral data was up on Friday but the cases are down so much. I will need a few days of cases around 1300 before I accept that it's not a lab giving people the weekend off.

The GP data wasn't up by any serious amount - it was still lower than every other day except Thursday. And the number of responses was lower; the actual number of "probable" cases reported by GPs was at its lowest level in weeks.

I wouldn't go read too much into the GP referral data. There's a large element of selection bias in it - GPs with fewer or no Covid calls are less likely to report in than GPs who've had an unusually busy day. Arguably the best indicator is the # of surveys received. More surveys received == more cases, less surveys == less cases.

Gael23

Vaccine numbers now listed on data hub

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

Vaccine numbers now listed on data hub

dont mean to burst your bubble but you're 2 weeks late

CatalogJinx

Gael23 wrote: »

Vaccine numbers now listed on data hub

That's nice news. Good to see a bit of positivity. Itching to get mine at this stage!

stephenjmcd

Gael23 wrote: »

Vaccine numbers now listed on data hub

Have been for the last while, up to last week.

Are due to be updated today and daily appearently

https://twitter.com/smytho/status/1353667199819513857?s=19

muddypuppy

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Not sure cases are around 1300.

Things don't make sense. The gp referral data was up on Friday but the cases are down so much. I will need a few days of cases around 1300 before I accept that it's not a lab giving people the weekend off.

It is what is and we will see.

Obviously testing of close contacts will need to be resumed and hospitals will have to empty. Yesterday was our highest icu day so far so the health service will be crying out for relief for a while even if cases fall. Veradker suggested that icu numbers would need to fall below 50 before conversations about relaxing restrictions could be had.

If cases are around 100 I definitely think there should be openings assuming icu numbers are below 50.

Referrals were up compared to Thursday, but still lower than the other days of the week. Also total amount of referral was down, it was up in % because less GPs answered the survey (132 - lowest number since Christmas).

Lab giving the weekend off or not, the % of positive swabs is still falling, fast.

I honestly don't see any way to consider the data we have been getting in any negative way. I do expect the government to tip-toe around re-opening a lot, so I would not bet on any re-opening in February (outside of maybe school and construction).

CatalogJinx

ACitizenErased wrote: »

dont mean to burst your bubble but you're 2 weeks late

Damnit, I could've been more positive two weeks ago if I'd known this!

Gael23

Does anyone know how many over 85s not in residential care there are?

political analyst

Why is the European Medicines Agency taking longer than its British equivalent to give approval to the AstraZeneca vaccine? If the vaccine is safe for Britain then it's safe for everywhere else.

ACitizenErased

political analyst wrote: »

Why is the European Medicines Agency taking longer than its British equivalent to give approval to the AstraZeneca vaccine? If the vaccine is safe for Britain then it's safe for everywhere else.

because they are completely different approvals. emergency authorisation vs marketing authorisation

stephenjmcd

EU press conference due shortly, 4.30 Irish time

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1353739423280672770?s=19

https://twitter.com/EC_AVService/status/1353734382658465796?s=19

quartz1

A report on Sky News on an interview with Dr David Nabarro that the Moderna vaccine is six times less effective against the South Africa Mutation

ACitizenErased

quartz1 wrote: »

A report on Sky News on an interview with Dr David Nabarro that the Moderna vaccine is six times less effective against the South Africa Mutation

so incredibly good -> very good


not good -> bad

muddypuppy

quartz1 wrote: »

A report on Sky News on an interview with Dr David Nabarro that the Moderna vaccine is six times less effective against the South Africa Mutation

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

". A six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with the B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective. "

nommm

quartz1 wrote: »

A report on Sky News on an interview with Dr David Nabarro that the Moderna vaccine is six times less effective against the South Africa Mutation

At 95% efficiency, it should still be fine. There is a good safety net.

seamus

quartz1 wrote: »

A report on Sky News on an interview with Dr David Nabarro that the Moderna vaccine is six times less effective against the South Africa Mutation

Nah, that's not what's being reported. The response to the SA variant is weaker, but it's still a sufficiently strong response to confer immunity.

Moderna are developing a booster candidate in response, but it doesn't impact the rollout of the current vaccine.

quartz1

muddypuppy wrote: »

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

". A six-fold reduction in neutralizing titers was observed with the B.1.351 variant relative to prior variants. Despite this reduction, neutralizing titer levels with B.1.351 remain above levels that are expected to be protective. "

So it still works but only just .

big syke

quartz1 wrote: »

So it still works but only just .

No. Wrong again.

Le Bruise

quartz1 wrote: »

So it still works but only just .

It's good news, stop looking for the negativity!

Amirani

quartz1 wrote: »

A report on Sky News on an interview with Dr David Nabarro that the Moderna vaccine is six times less effective against the South Africa Mutation

I'm not sure if you've paraphrased there, but "six times less effective" isn't quite what's been reported in the study.

There's a sixfold reduction in the neutralising antibodies produced, but they are still above levels that are expected to be protective. This doesn't really equate to six times less effective.

Turtwig

Worth noting Moderna vaccine still provides greater response to South African variant than people previously infected with earlier COVID variants in South Africa. The new variant can largely elude the previously infected immune response.

is_that_so

Gael23 wrote: »

Does anyone know how many over 85s not in residential care there are?

From the census in 2016.

Among those aged 85 and over, 78.3 per cent of the total were living in private households.

Deeper Blue

There could be a vaccine that's 99.99% effective against every disease on the planet and you'd probably still have someone on here going on about the 0.01%

quartz1

big syke wrote: »

No. Wrong again.

I am very happy to be wrong and I only quoted what the interviewer put to Dr Nabarro

Baggly

muddypuppy wrote: »

Referrals were up compared to Thursday, but still lower than the other days of the week. Also total amount of referral was down, it was up in % because less GPs answered the survey (132 - lowest number since Christmas).

Lab giving the weekend off or not, the % of positive swabs is still falling, fast.

I honestly don't see any way to consider the data we have been getting in any negative way. I do expect the government to tip-toe around re-opening a lot, so I would not bet on any re-opening in February (outside of maybe school and construction).

Mod

Folks, this is off topic for this thread.

big syke

quartz1 wrote: »

I am very happy to be wrong and I only quoted what the interviewer put to Dr Nabarro

No you said "So it still works but only just ."

This is wrong.

As is your "quote" from sky news. He never said the vaccine is 6 times less effective.

ACitizenErased

Updated vaccine number is 143000

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

Does anyone know how many over 85s not in residential care there are?

In total it's about 80,000. Going by another posters stat that would make it about 63,000 not in care homes.

AdamD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLIs2tZ7Cp4&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=EuropeanCommission

Pretty serious statement being made. Very much looks like they are accusing Astrazenica of exporting the supplies the EU had ordered to other countries..

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1353745031316828160?s=20