COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

lbj666

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm reading the front page of the Financial Times. It states in the third paragraph the injection only illicited production of around one sixth of the antibodies by comparison to the original virus.

That's in black and white unless you doubt it's veracity for some unspecified reason.

The same article you have has moderna saying it is less effective, so either you have a very good grasp of the relationship between antibody levels and efficacy and moderna are contradicting themselves or you havent a clue.

Leftwaffe

Some people are just consistently negative for no good reason. Get a thrill from it. Kind of fascinating to see how some minds work in times like these.

Moderna have said the antibody response will still be enough to provide protection and they are already developing a second generation shot as a booster, even if they don’t need it.

Kermit.de.frog

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

He also said he had "zero concerns".

Of course. They aren't going to tank their share price or reputation unless it's unrecoverable. So it's zero concerns but also bells and whistles in the form of additional product in a matter on months just in case.

Astrazeneca/Oxford had zero concerns 24 hours a go.

ACitizenErased

All the scientists and stock markets are buzzing but the Boards poster said no so no

DaSilva

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Of course. They aren't going to tank their share price or reputation unless it's unrecoverable. So it's zero concerns but also bells and whistles in the form of additional product in a matter on months just in case.

Astrazeneca/Oxford had zero concerns 24 hours a go.

If you are talking about the lack of efficacy data for the elderly with Astrazeneca/Oxford then you are just misinformed, the lack of data has been raised since the day they published their initial efficacy data in December

lbj666

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Of course. They aren't going to tank their share price or reputation unless it's unrecoverable. So it's zero concerns but also bells and whistles in the form of additional product in a matter on months just in case.

Astrazeneca/Oxford had zero concerns 24 hours a go.

There was plenty chat here about Astra Zeneca last week and what an Austrian minister said about over 65s..... its been on the cards.

Kermit.de.frog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

All the scientists and stock markets are buzzing but the Boards poster said no so no

I never said no. I'm going on what the article says. I'm not a virologist but I know how business works and no one on the board of that company is going to ever say they "have concerns".

That's 101 stuff.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm reading the front page of the Financial Times. It states in the third paragraph the injection only illicited production of around one sixth of the antibodies by comparison to the original virus.

That's in black and white unless you doubt it's veracity for some unspecified reason.

That article has completely misinterpreted what Moderna said. Antibodies were not reduced to 1/6. They were reduced 6-fold relative to prior variants. That is not the same thing. Even at that level the antibodies are still above the threshold for protection.

Melanchthon

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Some people are just consistently negative for no good reason. Get a thrill from it. Kind of fascinating to see how some minds work in times like these.

Moderna have said the antibody response will still be enough to provide protection and they are already developing a second generation shot as a booster, even if they don’t need it.

Agreed and not trying to be negative as I have not previously been too concerned about the mutations but in Moderna's case and the reduced antibody production will this be a older patients.
E.g a reduction to 1/6th is nothing to worry about for someone with a strong immune system, a 85 year old though?

Secondly if Astra Zeneca or other vaccines that might not have as strong an immune response have the same problem?

Kermit.de.frog

Hardyn wrote: »

That article has completely misinterpreted what Moderna said.

I have never met a market analyst, trader or business owner who did not have 100% trust in the veracity of any story in the FT never mind a front page story.

Considering that paper moves markets every day I would be quite shocked if it's "misinterpreted" by the author.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I have never met a market analyst, trader or business owner who did not have 100% trust in the veracity of any story in the FT never mind a front page story.

Considering that paper moves markets every day I would be quite shocked if it's "misinterpreted" by the author.

It was. To be fair I doubt it was intentional but it still was. Here is Moderna's original statement. Read it for yourself.

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

DaSilva

Hardyn wrote: »

It was. To be fair I doubt it was intentional but it still was. Here is Moderna's original statement. Read it for yourself.

https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-covid-19-vaccine-retains-neutralizing-activity-against

Even the FT article itself repeats what Moderna are saying:

"Laboratory tests show Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine still works against the variant named 501.V2, which first emerged in South Africa, and B.1.1.7, which was first discovered in the UK, the company said."

It's only Kermit who is misinterpreting

DaSilva

DaSilva wrote: »

Even the FT article itself repeats what Moderna are saying:

"Laboratory tests show Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine still works against the variant named 501.V2, which first emerged in South Africa, and B.1.1.7, which was first discovered in the UK, the company said."

It's only Kermit who is misinterpreting

True. To be fair most of the article is accurately. Its just that one part they got wrong. Like I said I doubt it was intentional.

Micky 32

Kermit this should give you a nice lovely warm fuzzy satisfying feeling.

Leo Varadkar today, (i guess my autumn predictions were off) There will be no xmas next year, we’ll have restrictions by the looks of it. To be honest my anger is just mounting everyday.

“ Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the Government has not ruled out mandatory quarantine for every person flying into Ireland for the next year.

However he warned if this was to happen, people would not be able to go on summer holidays abroad or see loved ones next Christmas.

He said if it is brought in it “would probably be for a year” and would only be fully effective if Northern Ireland did the same.

Speaking on RTÉ One’s Claire Byrne Live, the Tánaiste said that if mandatory quarantine was brought in it would be difficult to reverse.”

There is absolutely no sign of normality on the cards despite the vaccines, an absolute total waste of ****ing time. What the hell has changed the narrative so much since xmas when the vaccines were announced, there was an amazing buzz! What a horrible time to be alive and absolute zero to look forward to. :mad:

Conclusion: Get vaccinated but not to ease restrictions or get back to normality but to prevent people clogging up hospitals.

Does anyone actually really believe that this will ever end at all? Why the hell would we not be able to see our loved ones next Christmas if we are all vaccinated by then? There’s no incentive to get the vaccine now.....

I’m sorry fellow posters I’m just venting my anger......

mandrake04

Micky 32 wrote: »

Kermit this should give you a nice lovely warm fuzzy satisfying feeling.

Leo Varadkar today, (i guess my autumn predictions were off) There will be no xmas next year, we’ll have restrictions by the looks of it. To be honest my anger is just mounting everyday.

“ Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the Government has not ruled out mandatory quarantine for every person flying into Ireland for the next year.

However he warned if this was to happen, people would not be able to go on summer holidays abroad or see loved ones next Christmas.

He said if it is brought in it “would probably be for a year” and would only be fully effective if Northern Ireland did the same.

Speaking on RTÉ One’s Claire Byrne Live, the Tánaiste said that if mandatory quarantine was brought in it would be difficult to reverse.”

There is absolutely no sign of normality on the cards despite the vaccines, an absolute total waste of ****ing time. What the hell has changed the narrative so much since xmas when the vaccines were announced, there was an amazing buzz! What a horrible time to be alive and absolute zero to look forward to. :mad:

Conclusion: Get vaccinated but not to ease restrictions or get back to normality but to prevent people clogging up hospitals.

Does anyone actually really believe that this will ever end at all? Why the hell would we not be able to see our loved ones next Christmas if we are all vaccinated by then? There’s no incentive to get the vaccine now.....

I’m sorry fellow posters I’m just venting my anger......

Experts were saying last year it was going take a few years to get this under control possibly up to 4-5 years. I though at the time this worst case scenario but maybe it correct after all, but all the talk of various government was that vaccines were not a silver bullet but I think now they are now definitely on more uncertain territory than anytime before. I think since these new variants the penny has dropped that it’s not going be as straightforward as everyone thinks, all this talk of quarantine, non-essential travel, variants, mutations etc is just political lube that the end game is not as close as everyone thinks. There’s definitely a change in language over the last week.

I think there still another 18 months at current levels, it’s going take most of 2021 to get the first generation of vaccines full vaccinated populations in western populations and then a softly softly to see if they actually work. There might need to be a couple of generations of vaccines before this is fully under control. The problem is possible mutations and variants occurring in developing countries and throwing a spanner in the works.

Yes it will end sometime just not this year.

Cork2021

mandrake04 wrote: »

Experts were saying last year it was going take a few years to get this under control possibly up to 4-5 years. I though at the time this worst case scenario but maybe it correct after all, but all the talk of various government was that vaccines were not a silver bullet but I think now they are now definitely on more uncertain territory than anytime before. I think since these new variants the penny has dropped that it’s not going be as straightforward as everyone thinks, all this talk of quarantine, non-essential travel, variants, mutations etc is just political lube that the end game is not as close as everyone thinks. There’s definitely a change in language over the last week.

I think there still another 18 months at current levels, it’s going take most of 2021 to get the first generation of vaccines full vaccinated populations in western populations and then a softly softly to see if they actually work. There might need to be a couple of generations of vaccines before this is fully under control. The problem is possible mutations and variants occurring in developing countries and throwing a spanner in the works.

Yes it will end sometime just not this year.

Sorry but that’s hilarious.
Do you honestly think we’ll have restrictions this time next and up to summer 2022?
There’s no way that’s happening. We might as well just start queuing up at the dole office!
Economy in bits, collapse of airlines, the hospitality industry, retail, construction all in tatters!
The vaccines are the end game.
I’ll go with the guidelines as I’ve always done but people need to start living. We are only existing now and it’s depressing!

mandrake04

Cork2021 wrote: »

Sorry but that’s hilarious.
Do you honestly think we’ll have restrictions this time next and up to summer 2022?
There’s no way that’s happening. We might as well just start queuing up at the dole office!
Economy in bits, collapse of airlines, the hospitality industry, retail, construction all in tatters!
The vaccines are the end game.
I’ll go with the guidelines as I’ve always done but people need to start living. We are only existing now and it’s depressing!

hilarious eh?

Sure... People said last August there would be no more lockdowns and there has been 2 since, they said it was hilarious talking about another lockdown.

I think you need to look at the language Varadkar is using, its definitely changed in the last week and he is talking or rather hinting/leaking long term. The end game is not as close as you think, I reckon L3 is as good as it gets this year even with vaccines.

Maybe Leo is wrong, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.

dominatinMC

mandrake04 wrote: »

hilarious eh?

Sure... People said last August there would be no more lockdowns and there has been 2 since, they said it was hilarious talking about another lockdown.

I think you need to look at the language Varadkar is using, its definitely changed in the last week and he is talking or rather hinting/leaking long term. The end game is not as close as you think, I reckon L3 is as good as it gets this year even with vaccines.

Maybe Leo is wrong, but I wouldn't be holding my breath.

L3 for the remainder of the year is very very unlikely. L3 is not far removed from L5 in terms of restrictions. It will be political suicide if the majority of the population are vaccinated (which is the intention come September remember) and we are still at L3. I see L2/L1 towards the end of the summer and remaining so until next year. Just an opinion. I know the government are trying to dampen expectations, but I think this is in reaction to people booking summer holidays abroad, etc.
It's been my take all along that once the majority are vaccinated, normality (for the most part) will resume. Hospital admissions and deaths should be negligible by then so the whole justification for restrictions is gone - fairly simple really. Tighter controls at airports may be in place, they may even bring in mandatory quarantine/ban on travel, but I can live with that until other countries sort themselves out.

funnydoggy

dominatinMC wrote: »

L3 for the remainder of the year is very very unlikely. L3 is not far removed from L5 in terms of restrictions. It will be political suicide if the majority of the population are vaccinated (which is the intention come September remember) and we are still at L3. I see L2/L1 towards the end of the summer and remaining so until next year. Just an opinion. I know the government are trying to dampen expectations, but I think this is in reaction to people booking summer holidays abroad, etc.
It's been my take all along that once the majority are vaccinated, normality (for the most part) will resume. Hospital admissions and deaths should be negligible by then so the whole justification for restrictions is gone - fairly simple really. Tighter controls at airports may be in place, they may even bring in mandatory quarantine/ban on travel, but I can live with that until other countries sort themselves out.

Good post! Remember that the people who are most vulnerable will be vaccinated, and the people left who manage to catch the disease, will either be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms.

There is no need to panic. When the case is that COVID has been reduced to at worst, a mild flu, we will open up society a lot more.

Before COVID, largely across the world, journalism and news media was suffering. With COVID, they are experiencing a second wind. What gets them attention? Bad news that's constantly in the headlines. Even when pfizer announced their phase 3 trial results, RTE had it on their site but it was 3/4 down the page. The headlines were about cases and deaths.

The media is riding the gravy train with these negative headlines. They're not gonna change their modus operandi as long as they're making money.

snotboogie

Micky 32 wrote: »

Kermit this should give you a nice lovely warm fuzzy satisfying feeling.

Leo Varadkar today, (i guess my autumn predictions were off) There will be no xmas next year, we’ll have restrictions by the looks of it. To be honest my anger is just mounting everyday.

“ Tánaiste Leo Varadkar said the Government has not ruled out mandatory quarantine for every person flying into Ireland for the next year.

However he warned if this was to happen, people would not be able to go on summer holidays abroad or see loved ones next Christmas.

He said if it is brought in it “would probably be for a year” and would only be fully effective if Northern Ireland did the same.

Speaking on RTÉ One’s Claire Byrne Live, the Tánaiste said that if mandatory quarantine was brought in it would be difficult to reverse.”

There is absolutely no sign of normality on the cards despite the vaccines, an absolute total waste of ****ing time. What the hell has changed the narrative so much since xmas when the vaccines were announced, there was an amazing buzz! What a horrible time to be alive and absolute zero to look forward to. :mad:

Conclusion: Get vaccinated but not to ease restrictions or get back to normality but to prevent people clogging up hospitals.

Does anyone actually really believe that this will ever end at all? Why the hell would we not be able to see our loved ones next Christmas if we are all vaccinated by then? There’s no incentive to get the vaccine now.....

I’m sorry fellow posters I’m just venting my anger......

This is taken completely out of context. The restrictions Varadkar was talking about specifically refer to International Travel only and would apply only if the government would choose to implement mandatory quarantine for international travel.

Tyrone212

Who takes what Varadkar says seriously. At least we're not suffering "inspiring" mean girl quotes anymore during a pandemic.

funnydoggy

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Who takes what Varadkar says seriously. At least we're not suffering "inspiring" mean girl quotes anymore during a pandemic.

It won't be long before he campaigns for Taoiseach again and says "come with me if you want to live" :pac:

is_that_so

funnydoggy wrote: »

It won't be long before he campaigns for Taoiseach again and says "come with me if you want to live" :pac:

He will be Taoiseach again next year, if the government holds.

funnydoggy

is_that_so wrote: »

He will be Taoiseach again next year, if the government holds.

"I believe in Leo Varadkar"


etc :pac:

Probes

funnydoggy wrote: »

Good post! Remember that the people who are most vulnerable will be vaccinated, and the people left who manage to catch the disease, will either be asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms.

There is no need to panic. When the case is that COVID has been reduced to at worst, a mild flu, we will open up society a lot more.

Before COVID, largely across the world, journalism and news media was suffering. With COVID, they are experiencing a second wind. What gets them attention? Bad news that's constantly in the headlines. Even when pfizer announced their phase 3 trial results, RTE had it on their site but it was 3/4 down the page. The headlines were about cases and deaths.

The media is riding the gravy train with these negative headlines. They're not gonna change their modus operandi as long as they're making money.

This is not true, 50% in icu are under 65. Not all younger people suffer from mild illness. Off the top of my head I can think of Steve Cotteril, a fit 50 year old football manager who is being ventilated, and also another fit football manager Paul Lambert who is 51 and said he was nearly hospitalised. It's false to say only older people get severe disease.

Gael23

Belfast Airport will be having a great few years. Traffic congestion in the M1 will be awful though

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1353900984209182720?s=19

Florian Krammer gives a decent summary on where we are with variants and vaccines and what it all means. Well worth a read.

daydorunrun

is_that_so wrote: »

He will be Taoiseach again next year, if the government holds.

MerlinSouthDub

Hardyn wrote: »

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1353900984209182720?s=19

Florian Krammer gives a decent summary on where we are with variants and vaccines and what it all means. Well worth a read.

Great thread, as always from Florian Krammer, though I feel twitter may not be the absolute best platform when your thread has 44 tweets.

AdamD

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

In tomorrow's FT Moderna has acknowledged it's vaccine is mostly ineffective against South Africa strain. The company is to begin new trials on a product to try tackle this particular strain.

I always suspected the vaccine narrative since last March was partly a morale booster for populations first and foremost (and that's fine, people need hope of light at the end of the tunnel). My concern is that the unravelling of the narrative may only now be beginning.

I have no doubt we will get an effective vaccine but vaccines are hard and usually take a long time. Many years.

We'll see.

You're actually a disgrace