COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Le Bruise

eoinbn wrote: »

With the current supply issues 70% will only happen if everyone executes perfectly from here to September. The chances of that happening are close to zero.

The EU want 70% done by June and Donnelly has said every adult (who accepts) would have one by September.

ACitizenErased

UCC hosting a vaccine discussion tomorrow:
https://twitter.com/UCC/status/1354087849088446467?s=20

Cork2021

J&J is the real game changer when it does get approved. 2.2million doses coming our way this year from middle of April it seems.
That’s massive. Come then we should have 1million already vaccinated all going well.
We still have CureVac and Novovax to come as well.
Just thinking about it we could have 70% of the adult population vaccinated by the end of June.
Pfizer’s deliveries will get bigger as will moderna and we will have AstraZeneca in some capacity, when you’ve 4 vaccines being definitely being distributed come April I can’t see why we can’t be at level 1 come June and normality from September.

Pablo Escobar

Gael23 wrote: »

Only for February. Lots of issues still remain

The February climb-down gives them space to 'find a solution'......in other words, to create an excuse. This is done. It'll prove the benefit of being involved in the EU programme. It'll potentially cause issues in the UK, especially as they've gone full on with first doses.

AdamD

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

Apologies if this has been asked already...

Our current goal is to have something like 70% of the population vaccinated by September. Is the J&J vaccine included in this?

Or could we see even more vaccinated by September, if the J&J single dose vaccine is approved in the coming months?

I don't think J&J was included in that? But Oxford was at the expected levels which seem to be in serious doubt. Maybe it'll even itself out

Cork2021

Good article here explaining some hope for future therapeutics and antivirals for covid

https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1354088970057961474?s=21

St.Spodo

It could be swings and roundabouts with these vaccines. Not everything is going to go to plan, but as far as I know, our schedule only accounted for 3 vaccines. We could easily have 4 approved by the time this lockdown is due to end.

Gile_na_gile

As always, I am also wondering about contingencies for procurement. It is great that the health commissioner Stella Kyriakides has suddenly become visible, but it only happened after national health ministers (basically, Jens Spahn throwing his weight around given domestic pressure) threatened to bypass the whole system. The EC team needs to be much more communicative about production facilities for all suppliers, present and future, and make clearer their production investment decisions. Why not invest again in a new round of production facilities?
I also still wonder why they have still not concluded Novavax talks and what ramifications this will have later. We know at present that what we have is a trickle of vaccines and a lot of 'paper vaccines' with large promises subject to demand from other third party countries who pay up sooner. Needless to say, had the procurement team purchased larger stocks of mRNA vaccines earlier, we wouldn't be in this desperate situation of trying to claw a 'win' from yet another fiasco. We need to see they are on our side, goddamn it! [slams fist on table, awkward silence expands]

Sky King

Cork2021 wrote: »

J&J is the real game changer when it does get approved. 2.2million doses coming our way this year from middle of April it seems.
That’s massive. Come then we should have 1million already vaccinated all going well.
We still have CureVac and Novovax to come as well.
Just thinking about it we could have 70% of the adult population vaccinated by the end of June.
Pfizer’s deliveries will get bigger as will moderna and we will have AstraZeneca in some capacity, when you’ve 4 vaccines being definitely being distributed come April I can’t see why we can’t be at level 1 come June and normality from September.

This is exactly my take on it as well. One of the lads in work says we'll still be struggling to vaccinate come this time next year. I offered to throw 20 quid on restrictions being gone by September. He declined.

firemansam4

I really can't understand the mindset of some posters on here.

The EU has entered into several contracts on behalf of all EU citizens (which means us) to procure vaccines for every member state ASAP. They have invested massive amounts of money on our behalf to make sure this happens.
One of these companies on face value seems to be renegading on the contract trying to divert supplies that were meant to be for the EU to 3rd parties instead.

I for one am glad the EU seems to be taking this very seriously and looks like they will fight tooth and nail to find out what's happening and try and make sure companies comply with there commitments. Commitments that our in all of our interests here.
Why are some posters dissing the EU for doing this? The mind boggles....

irishlad.

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really can't understand the mindset of some posters on here.

The EU has entered into several contracts on behalf of all EU citizens (which means us) to procure vaccines for every member state ASAP. They have invested massive amounts of money on our behalf to make sure this happens.
One of these companies on face value seems to be renegading on the contract trying to divert supplies that were meant to be for the EU to 3rd parties instead.

I for one am glad the EU seems to be taking this very seriously and looks like they will fight tooth and nail to find out what's happening and try and make sure companies comply with there commitments. Commitments that our in all of our interests here.
Why are some posters dissing the EU for doing this? The mind boggles....

This is so true, we would be absolutely nowhere without the EU.

Imagine a free for all in Europe involving the likes of the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, the rest of us would be toast

D.Q

firemansam4 wrote: »

I really can't understand the mindset of some posters on here.

The EU has entered into several contracts on behalf of all EU citizens (which means us) to procure vaccines for every member state ASAP. They have invested massive amounts of money on our behalf to make sure this happens.
One of these companies on face value seems to be renegading on the contract trying to divert supplies that were meant to be for the EU to 3rd parties instead.

I for one am glad the EU seems to be taking this very seriously and looks like they will fight tooth and nail to find out what's happening and try and make sure companies comply with there commitments. Commitments that our in all of our interests here.
Why are some posters dissing the EU for doing this? The mind boggles....

Mental. This site is full of lunatics.

Godot.

irishlad. wrote: »

This is so true, we would be absolutely nowhere without the EU.

Imagine a free for all in Europe involving the likes of the UK, Germany, France, Spain and Italy, the rest of us would be toast

I know people love talking about Ireland as if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have never done anything right, but we are actually one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Being small didn't stop Israel, UAE or Bahrain. We have one of the highest GDP per capitas in Europe.
The EU has many virtues, but if we could have done the vaccinations separately Ireland and other Northern and Western European nations would've been better off.

Gael23

Godot. wrote: »

I know people love talking about Ireland as if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have never done anything right, but we are actually one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Being small didn't stop Israel, UAE or Bahrain. We have one of the highest GDP per capitas in Europe.
The EU has many virtues, but if we could have done the vaccinations separately Ireland and other Northern and Western European nations would've been better off.

Do you think AstraZeneca would listen to one word that comes out of Stephen Donnelly’s mouth?

Melanchthon

Godot. wrote: »

I know people love talking about Ireland as if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have never done anything right, but we are actually one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Being small didn't stop Israel, UAE or Bahrain. We have one of the highest GDP per capitas in Europe.
The EU has many virtues but if we could have the vaccinations separately Ireland and other Northern and Western European nations would've been better off.

Was just going to post this. People that are saying that Ireland would be absolutely screwed outside the EU clearly haven't looked at much in depth reporting of EU vaccination stuff as even in the EU countries aren't buying the full allowance available of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine.

We could offer 200 euro for the Pfizer vaccine and it would still be great value too us.

If the UK is fully open in the mid summer and Ireland still has restrictions I do wonder what the defensive line will be then.

is_that_so

St.Spodo wrote: »

It could be swings and roundabouts with these vaccines. Not everything is going to go to plan, but as far as I know, our schedule only accounted for 3 vaccines. We could easily have 4 approved by the time this lockdown is due to end.

It will also depend how much we can ramp up vaccinations. The HSE have spoken of a target of 1m a month.

CrabRevolution

Godot. wrote: »

I know people love talking about Ireland as if Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have never done anything right, but we are actually one of the wealthiest countries in the world. Being small didn't stop Israel, UAE or Bahrain. We have one of the highest GDP per capitas in Europe.
The EU has many virtues, but if we could have done the vaccinations separately Ireland and other Northern and Western European nations would've been better off.

There's no guarantee of that. What if Germany had said to Pfizer "We'll pay anything you want for your first 200 million doses"? Then France, then the UK etc.

We would never have stood a chance and could have ended up months down the queue with our comparatively tiny order. The way it is now, we may not get it all at once, but at least we're getting a steady supply from day 1.

Malcomex

Melanchthon wrote: »

Was just going to post this. People that are saying that Ireland would be absolutely screwed outside the EU clearly haven't looked at much in depth reporting of EU vaccination stuff as even in the EU countries aren't buying the full allowance available of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine.

We could offer 200 euro for the Pfizer vaccine and it would still be great value too us.

If the UK is fully open in the mid summer and Ireland still has restrictions I do wonder what the defensive line will be then.

Would probably work against us overall if pfizer would even entertain us

EU would give us a big fukk u for doing it when it comes to the next round of vaccines

I don't think our situation is comparable to Israel anyhow

funnydoggy

I just noticed it's still a bit bright outside. Days are getting longer thankfully.

'If we winter this one out, we can summer anywhere'

Melanchthon

CrabRevolution wrote: »

There's no guarantee of that. What if Germany had said to Pfizer "We'll pay anything you want for your first 200 million doses"? Then France, then the UK etc.

We would never have stood a chance and could have ended up months down the queue with our comparatively tiny order. The way it is now, we may not get it all at once, but at least we're getting a steady supply from day 1.

The Gulf states and Israel are small orders but we know they are getting vaccine deliveries. This flag waving for the EU approach is worse than the Brexiteers across the water, because at least the Tory party is telling them things are wonderful, for the EU flag wavers the problem is that important EU leaders themselves know it's going to slowly

This article is pre-astra Zeneca delay and is from a very pro EU source not the express or telegraph

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-see-dark-red-as-pandemic-worsens-and-urge-brussels-to-speed-up-vaccine-delivery/

Water John

Intersting to listen to Emma Cooke EMA. One point of interest is she didn't think the material needed by the EMA was any more onerous than what the UK would require. So the big question is, why did AZ delay the EMA application?

lbj666

I wouldnt dimiss what the market for vacine would have been like if 27 mostly modern ecomomies included themselves in the bidding individually. Plenty other countries elsewhere are buying in blocks by the way.

Cost is supposed to have a low weighting in the overall scheme of things, but getting into a blank cheque like bidding war would have driven costs up to a point where it would start skewing countries decisions in what vaccines to back. There would be less spreading their risk out and some would be in a total panic now. The bigger the entitity the more you can absorb risk.

For those of you with experience in public procurement in Ireland know how much bodies are scrutinized for not going lowest price regardless of quality or risk. I have my doubts we would have backed a more expensive unproven technology for a start.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1354118086786494465

What in the sweet hell is this.

Even WITH vaccinations travel at Christmas would still be hindered? His "you can’t assume herd immunity. New variants can change things." comment is hugely dangerous at this point in time. You have a demoralised population who are looking towards the vaccine for hope, but lets pour really cold water on that right away.

And I thought Monday was bad.

Apogee

Long thread from Tony Connolly summarising Emer Cooke's testimony:


On emergency authorisations:
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1354117821907742724

On Russian vaccine:
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1354116337610743813

Stark

Frank Bullitt wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1354118086786494465

What in the sweet hell is this.

Even WITH vaccinations travel at Christmas would still be hindered? His "you can’t assume herd immunity. New variants can change things." comment is hugely dangerous at this point in time. You have a demoralised population who are looking towards the vaccine for hope, but lets pour really cold water on that right away.

And I thought Monday was bad.

I was wondering wtf myself. You can't keep the country closed on the basis of "what if". Even with covid completely eliminated, there will still be potential dangers lurking with other viruses in some part of the world. Just have to deal with that if/when it happens.

Once people are vaccinated, there's no justifications for any sort of restrictions. Yes, covid won't be completely gone, some people may still get sick, some people may still die but such is life and so it has been for as long as we've existed. Important thing is health service isn't overwhelmed.

fly_agaric

Melanchthon wrote: »

The Gulf states and Israel are small orders but we know they are getting vaccine deliveries. This flag waving for the EU approach is worse than the Brexiteers across the water, because at least the Tory party is telling them things are wonderful, for the EU flag wavers the problem is that important EU leaders themselves know it's going to slowly

This article is pre-astra Zeneca delay and is from a very pro EU source not the express or telegraph

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-see-dark-red-as-pandemic-worsens-and-urge-brussels-to-speed-up-vaccine-delivery/

It is not the Daily Telegraph, let alone the Express but it is not a "pro EU" source. It is a US magazine as far as I remember.
A large fraction of 1 political party in the US (post Trump revolution) now openly despises the EU and works towards its dissolution.
Corporate US is not at all keen on it either at times.

edit: to be clear, I am not trying to argue "things are going well" in the EU by the way (as we sit here under lockdown) or discredit your source.
Just wanted to point out describing it as "pro-EU" vs the Telegraph as "anti-EU" was a bit much IMO.

Melanchthon wrote: »

Was just going to post this. People that are saying that Ireland would be absolutely screwed outside the EU clearly haven't looked at much in depth reporting of EU vaccination stuff as even in the EU countries aren't buying the full allowance available of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine.

We could offer 200 euro for the Pfizer vaccine and it would still be great value too us.

If the UK is fully open in the mid summer and Ireland still has restrictions I do wonder what the defensive line will be then.

I kind of don't get it?

Do people making such arguments really think Ireland should not have participated in the EU agreement / tried to veto it (given it exists/was created)?

Or would you prefer it had been much more of a free for all; no EU level agreements, all member states do their own thing with vaccines?

I can't see that it could have ended anything but horribly, even if we'd gotten lucky with our decisions and won in a more cut-throat and dirty situation over the poorer EU countries.

Someone has to "lose" here for someone to "win" (apart from the companies, arguably). Posters just assume it will not be us, but it might be. We have money-bags alright, but that doesn't prevent ill chance or downright skulduggery.

So, there will be losers. Given what is at stake here the bad blood that would have been stirred up in the EU and the possible consequences later would have been pretty unimaginable.

nommm

Frank Bullitt wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1354118086786494465

What in the sweet hell is this.

Even WITH vaccinations travel at Christmas would still be hindered? His "you can’t assume herd immunity. New variants can change things." comment is hugely dangerous at this point in time. You have a demoralised population who are looking towards the vaccine for hope, but lets pour really cold water on that right away.

And I thought Monday was bad.

He’s coming out with more ridiculous reasons against mandatory quarantine, revealing how little clue he has each time. It would almost be funny if he wasn’t running the country.

stephenjmcd

Stark wrote: »

I was wondering wtf myself. You can't keep the country closed on the basis of "what if". Even with covid completely eliminated, there will still be potential dangers lurking with other viruses in some part of the world. Just have to deal with that if/when it happens.

Once people are vaccinated, there's no justifications for any sort of restrictions. Yes, covid won't be completely gone, some people may still get sick, some people may still die but such is life and so it has been for as long as we've existed. Important thing is health service isn't overwhelmed.

Look take whatever he says with a pinch of salt when it comes to making predictions on restrictions.

Not long before he had said what everyone was thinking that vaccines allow us to deal with this as we do with the flu.

Israel is essentially the test case for vacination and it looks good so far.

Frank Bullitt

Stark wrote: »

I was wondering wtf myself. You can't keep the country closed on the basis of "what if". Even with covid completely eliminated, there will still be potential dangers lurking with other viruses in some part of the world. Just have to deal with that if/when it happens.

Once people are vaccinated, there's no justifications for any sort of restrictions. Yes, covid won't be completely gone, some people may still get sick, some people may still die but such is life and so it has been for as long as we've existed. Important thing is health service isn't overwhelmed.

This.

I don't think any sort of spin will help people accept that in any shape or form. For myself if/when I get the vaccine (I want it as soon as it's available in my age bracket), why the hell would I want to just go back to sitting at home? Lots have been doing that already, and now we are being told that it might still be the case going after vaccines are handed out.

This yo-yo form of approach is a joke at this point. How can the gov think for a second that this kind of communication is right for this time? You have a demoralised population across the world, people are tired, pissed off and flat out over it. But sure why not just douse those flames of hope in January for CHRISTMAS, yeah, that will REALLY get people to stay at home for longer...christ almighty.

I never thought I would get this mad or upset over all of this.

ACitizenErased

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1354123216885850115