COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

D.Q

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Could someone give me a brief rundown of the last 24 hours regarding the bickering about vaccines. Seeing a ton of vitriol online from British about the EU.

There's even talk of them leaving the EU next. Can't see it happening but will be interesting to see how it goes.

Wolf359f

Wolf359f wrote: »

UK & Argentina approved it for emergency use.
It's also approved in India, Mexico, Brazil, Hungary & Pakistan.
So approved in 7 countries, 2 of which were under emergency use.
I'm surprised the CEO doesn't know what counties it's approved in.

El Salvador, Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Sri Lanka, Nepal.

Water John

The AZ vaccine is made in Belgium and packaged in Germany and Italy. Not sure if there is other manufacturing plants in EU or UK? Perhaps others here might know.

SEPT 23 1989

I wonder what information they have received on variants

Not the ones the public knows the names of yet

They seem spooked

Russman

Cork2021 wrote: »

1 dose should do.... maybe that’s our main way out of this earlier...

https://twitter.com/coronavirusgoo1/status/1354160762483257346?s=21

Wonder what his definition of “long term” is, with regard to the second dose ?

Cork2021

Russman wrote: »

Wonder what his definition of “long term” is, with regard to the second dose ?

A year or two.
Hmmm said it in the main covid thread that a booster might be needed but who cares as long as we have normality

josip

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

I wonder what information they have received on variants

Not the ones the public knows the names of yet

They seem spooked

I thought the same, but how would all the EU leaders/govts keep that kind of information quiet?

Itsaduck1

snotboogie wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1354158567146840064?s=19

Unbeliveable update from Israel. Nearly 3% of their population got a shot yesterday. That's about the same as we have done since the start of January and they have done that with nearly twice our population!

To be fair, its not just us, they are leaving the rest of the world behind

Going to be fascinating watching them in 8-12 weeks, hospital cases should start dropping to nothing when they get 40% of population fully vaccinated with 2nd dose

Saw a mathematician post on Twitter a while back that 95% of hospitalisations will stop once you get your at risk population vaccinated, which he estimated at 30% of total population for UK I think

Israel won't be far off that soon

Kind of ironic Christ's birth country will show us the way

Amirani

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Israel won't be far off that soon

Kind of ironic Christ's birth country will show us the way

Bethlehem is in the West Bank, in Palestine.

wes

Amirani wrote: »

Bethlehem is in the West Bank, in Palestine.

Also, should be noted the Palestinians who live there do not have access to the vaccine.

Water John

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Going to be fascinating watching them in 8-12 weeks, hospital cases should start dropping to nothing when they get 40% of population fully vaccinated with 2nd dose

Saw a mathematician post on Twitter a while back that 95% of hospitalisations will stop once you get your at risk population vaccinated, which he estimated at 30% of total population for UK I think

Israel won't be far off that soon

Kind of ironic Christ's birth country will show us the way

The at risk will all have got one shot by Mid Feb in the UK.

Itsaduck1

Amirani wrote: »

Bethlehem is in the West Bank, in Palestine.

Was Israel at that time?

wheresthebeef

wes wrote: »

Also, should be noted the Palestinians who live there do not have access to the vaccine.

Shame they wouldn’t accept help from the Israeli’s when it was offered. The hatred runs deep in those Palestinians.

Micky 32

josip wrote: »

I thought the same, but how would all the EU leaders/govts keep that kind of information quiet?

It’s now like there was never a vaccine announced. It’s like this year is as bad as 2020 but going to be worse, especially with the media all about tighter restrictions . I can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel anymore, the uncertainty has returned.

Water John

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s now like there was never a vaccine announced. It’s like this year is as bad as 2020 but going to be worse, especially with the media all about tighter restrictions . I can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel anymore, the uncertainty has returned.

No, at risk groups will soon be all vaccinated. This will lead to a rapid fall in deaths and less so hospitalisations. Keep the chin up.

Sanjuro

Micky 32 wrote: »

It’s now like there was never a vaccine announced. It’s like this year is as bad as 2020 but going to be worse, especially with the media all about tighter restrictions . I can’t see the light at the end of the tunnel anymore, the uncertainty has returned.

The people in charge are a man known to court the media for nothing more than self-aggrandisement, another who founded a party and then jumped ship to join a party he spent years deriding. One man who suggested we all grow salads in our window boxes as a world historic pandemic was breaking out and one of the people involved in the government that bankrupt the state. I would put no faith in any of the nonsense coming out of them. They're absolutely clueless. A shambles of a government.

Cork2021

Water John wrote: »

No, at risk groups will soon be all vaccinated. This will lead to a rapid fall in deaths and less so hospitalisations. Keep the chin up.

Also if you read this article we’ll hopefully have an excellent treatment for covid from Eli Lilly soon!!

https://twitter.com/ft/status/1354205072595558401?s=21

JPup

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Was Israel at that time?

No. Province of Judea. Part of the Roman Empire.

Apogee

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

Saw a mathematician post on Twitter a while back that 95% of hospitalisations will stop once you get your at risk population vaccinated, which he estimated at 30% of total population for UK I think

30% of population (roughly 60+ years) would make a major impact, but it still seems a little low to reduce 95% of hospitalisations. The profile of deaths is different to that of hospitalisations - more younger people end up in the latter group. Possibly closer to 80% reduction (assuming similar profile in Ireland)?

markodaly

Cork2021 wrote: »

J&J is the real game changer when it does get approved. 2.2million doses coming our way this year from middle of April it seems.
That’s massive. Come then we should have 1million already vaccinated all going well.
We still have CureVac and Novovax to come as well.
Just thinking about it we could have 70% of the adult population vaccinated by the end of June.
Pfizer’s deliveries will get bigger as will moderna and we will have AstraZeneca in some capacity, when you’ve 4 vaccines being definitely being distributed come April I can’t see why we can’t be at level 1 come June and normality from September.

Its good to be optimistic, but there is optimism and there is fantasy.

There is no way, we will have 1 million vaccinated by the middle of April and normality as in Feb 2020 in September, not a chance.

Sure, we will hope that by September 2020 there will be some essence of a more normal life, but with restrictions on events, crowds and travel.

wes

wheresthebeef wrote: »

Shame they wouldn’t accept help from the Israeli’s when it was offered. The hatred runs deep in those Palestinians.

I have heard people say this, but that claim seems to be untrue:
Israeli health minister says not country’s job to give vaccine to Palestinians in occupied territory


So what your saying is complete fiction. Israel rules over the Palestinians, so its on them to vaccinate them.

Cork2021

markodaly wrote: »

Its good to be optimistic, but there is optimism and there is fantasy.

There is no way, we will have 1 million vaccinated by the middle of April and normality as in Feb 2020 in September, not a chance.

Sure, we will hope that by September 2020 there will be some essence of a more normal life, but with restrictions on events, crowds and travel.

Why won’t we have 1million vaccinated by the middle of April? It’s far from fantasy! Your looking at adding 2 more vaccines to the two we already have and one of those is a one shot dose.
Travel yes I agree with restrictions. Level
Zero is going to happen this year!

markodaly

Stark wrote: »

Once people are vaccinated, there's no justifications for any sort of restrictions.

You are looking at it from a one dimensional point of view.

Even if you get Ireland fully vaccinated, that doesn't mean you can lift all restrictions for travel as an example. The penny has dropped here with the Irish government and the EU that you cannot negotiate with this virus.

New variants and mutations are inevitable. As we have seen from the English, South African and Brazillian variant, in fact the data coming out of Manus in Brazil is concerning in regards to antibodies and herd immunity.

I can very well see a situation where we get fully vaccinated but will need a modified booster and redo the entire population again because some variant has emerged that can threaten us again.

Short term 'it will be alright jack' has led us to this current position.

snotboogie

Cork2021 wrote: »

Why won’t we have 1million vaccinated by the middle of April? It’s far from fantasy! Your looking at adding 2 more vaccines to the two we already have and one of those is a one shot dose.
Travel yes I agree with restrictions. Level
Zero is going to happen this year!

1 million shots? Or 1 million vaccinated? No way in hell we have 1 million vaccinated by the middle of April.

markodaly

Cork2021 wrote: »

Why won’t we have 1million vaccinated by the middle of April? It’s far from fantasy! Your looking at adding 2 more vaccines to the two we already have and one of those is a one shot dose.
Travel yes I agree with restrictions. Level
Zero is going to happen this year!

Middle of April is what, 10 weeks away or so? We need to vaccinated 850,000 people in 10 weeks, a tall order.

The EMA has yet to approve the Astrazeneca vaccine and we all know of course the issues with a supply that has emerged.
JnJ hasn't even submitted their data to the EMA or indeed to any drug approval body.

... the point? Counting chickens before they hatch.


Level 0 this year is a fantasy in my opinion. Maybe end of next year.

Cork2021

markodaly wrote: »

Middle of April is what, 10 weeks away or so? We need to vaccinated 850,000 people in 10 weeks, a tall order.

The EMA has yet to approve the Astrazeneca vaccine and we all know of course the issues with a supply that has emerged.
JnJ hasn't even submitted their data to the EMA or indeed to any drug approval body.

... the point? Counting chickens before they hatch.


Level 0 this year is a fantasy in my opinion. Maybe end of next year.

End of 2022? Come on your just having a fûcking laugh now. We will have done our bit and moved on from this crap well by that time!

Cork2021

snotboogie wrote: »

1 million shots? Or 1 million vaccinated? No way in hell we have 1 million vaccinated by the middle of April.

We won’t be far off it!

Micky 32

Cork2021 wrote: »

End of 2022? Come on your just having a fûcking laugh now. We will have done our bit and moved on from this crap well by that time!

I wouldn’t bother, it’s wishful thinking. He rarely posts on here, he’s a WUM.

Cork2021

markodaly wrote: »

You are looking at it from a one dimensional point of view.

Even if you get Ireland fully vaccinated, that doesn't mean you can lift all restrictions for travel as an example. The penny has dropped here with the Irish government and the EU that you cannot negotiate with this virus.

New variants and mutations are inevitable. As we have seen from the English, South African and Brazillian variant, in fact the data coming out of Manus in Brazil is concerning in regards to antibodies and herd immunity.

I can very well see a situation where we get fully vaccinated but will need a modified booster and redo the entire population again because some variant has emerged that can threaten us again.

Short term 'it will be alright jack' has led us to this current position.

The influenza vaccine gets tweaked every year to deal with different kinds of influenza, Covid might be in a similar vain but that doesn’t mean restrictions etc!
It was never the case when we had years of terrible flu outbreaks and pressure on our hospitals

Cork2021

Cork2021 wrote: »

We won’t be far off it!

AZ doses in Feb - 180k possibly
Pfizer doses in Feb - 160k hopefully but may be reduced
Moderna doses in Feb - 40k? But no clarity yet, no delivery since original 3,600

Pfizer is meant to increase in March but unclear by how much
AZ will drop in March apparently
Moderna - no clarity on production, prob 10k a week minimum

J & J first doses not due for delivery until April.

As far as I can work out we might be at around 400k fully vaccinated by end of March (will fluctuate widely depending on AZ dosing regime and approval)