COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Malcomex

lbj666 wrote: »

In fairness its a bit much for calling for this now, when the purchase agreements were made months ago.

They must know UK won't agree to it, probably laying down a marker

Could end up working in the 1st world's best interests to divert the vaccines after the vulnerable are treated

marno21

Good opinion piece in the FT (paywalled though) about the UK and Ireland potentially becoming a "Common Immunity Area" when the vaccines are rolled out given the level of travel between the two countries and the shared border.

https://www.ft.com/content/cfb1b55c-17a9-449d-bc87-fed41c0211ae

Good points made about the cross border travel, the number of each other's residents living in the other country, the border etc.

Would likely require the UK donating surplus vaccines to Ireland. There seems to be resistance to this which I can't understand - it would be useful for us to use any means necessary to vaccinate people in light of the mess the EU programme has become in terms of procurement

is_that_so

Malcomex wrote: »

They must know UK won't agree to it, probably laying down a marker

Could end up working in the 1st world's best interests to divert the vaccines after the vulnerable are treated

Hancock said, in today's briefing, that they are willing to help others in principle but that now is too early for plans like that. They have ordered 400m vaccines.

Malcomex

is_that_so wrote: »

Hancock said, in today's briefing, that they are willing to help others in principle but that now is too early for plans like that. They have ordered 400m vaccines.

That's just a no

Sending vaccines to us after their done is in their interest obviously with the travel between the 2

The longer the 1st world leaves the 3rd world unvaccinated the greater the risk of them causing us problems

eoinbn

Apogee wrote: »

The way this is being reported is a little ambiguous - hard to know is it real or rehash of a previous announcement. Is this really 75m additional doses in Q2 on top of previous promises, or 75m in total for Q2?

And is it the same 75m that was promised back on Jan 8th?


https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_21_46

I can't figure out how many of the Pfizer vaccines in total are coming to Europe in Q2.

It could well be additional. Even if it is the same then it is still great news - indicates that the ramp up is going to plan - something that we really needed to hear after the last 10 days.

I estimate that the current projection is for between 165-240m BioNtech/Pfizer doses to be delivered in Q2.

Long version:
The initial contract is for 200m doses by September.
By the end of Q1 70m of those will be delivered with. That assumes a bit of ramp up in March over the current figures.
So in Q2 we can expect 5.5m dose per week from the initial contract from BioNtech to hit their target.
If we are to expect 25% of the new 300m order then we can except to also get 25% of the additional 100m.
(75m + 25m) / 12 week = 8,333,333 doses per week.

8.3m + 5.5m = 13.8m doses per week. For Ireland that would be 150k doses per week.

Short version: One reason why I think it is additional is because I saw a report that Germany was expecting 40m doses from BioNtech in Q2. That would mean 2.4m doses, or 200k a week, for Ireland.

One unknown here is how many dose per vial and if we would be able to extract 6 doses from every vial if we scale to 150-200k doses per week.

titan18

Malcomex wrote: »

They must know UK won't agree to it, probably laying down a marker

Could end up working in the 1st world's best interests to divert the vaccines after the vulnerable are treated

Any government that sends vaccines out of the country whilst keeping their own population locked down will be massacred by their voters.

marno21

eoinbn wrote: »

It could well be additional. Even if it is the same then it is still great news - indicates that the ramp up is going to plan - something that we really needed to hear after the last 10 days.

I estimate that the current projection is for between 165-240m BioNtech/Pfizer doses to be delivered in Q2.

Long version:
The initial contract is for 200m doses by September.
By the end of Q1 70m of those will be delivered with. That assumes a bit of ramp up in March over the current figures.
So in Q2 we can expect 5.5m dose per week from the initial contract from BioNtech to hit their target.
If we are to expect 25% of the new 300m order then we can except to also get 25% of the additional 100m.
(75m + 25m) / 12 week = 8,333,333 doses per week.

8.3m + 5.5m = 13.8m doses per week. For Ireland that would be 150k doses per week.

Short version: One reason why I think it is additional is because I saw a report that Germany was expecting 40m doses from BioNtech in Q2. That would mean 2.4m doses, or 200k a week, for Ireland.

One unknown here is how many dose per vial and if we would be able to extract 6 doses from every vial if we scale to 150-200k doses per week.

If we are getting 2.4m vaccines from Pfizer alone in Q2 we will be over the hump by mid summer.

2.4m from Pfizer + Moderna + AstraZeneca + J&J + possibly Novavax. Does anyone have figures for those other companies?

I believe that the plan last published was 700k vaccinated in Q1 and 1.9m in Q2. That would imply 3.8m doses (depending on which proportion is J&J) being delivered in Q2. If we are getting 2.4m from Pfizer alone that means we only need 1.4m from the other 3/4 companies to meet our target. The 700k from Q1 is being revised down to 550-600k now I believe, but even with that in mind we could be looking at 2m+ vaccinated by the end of June. That would be immense.

afatbollix

The UK will have the majority vaccinated by May (My own projection)

What's giving the Republic 500k extra vaccines?

One GP practice gave out 1000 jabs in one day last week in Cornwall!

The UK bought more vaccines than needed to help trade talks in years to come. Easy win and it should open doors.

wadacrack

Vaccine proving to be very effective in Israel, promising signs for when the rest of Europe catches up

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1356313705684869121

RugbyLad11

Water John wrote: »

WHO are asking UK to pause their vaccination programme when all vulnerable groups are vaccinated. This is to help ensure vulnerable groups in other countries are vaccinated. This will be an interesting moral debate for all of us, I think.

It's political suicide. What happens when unvaccinated people in the UK die or their lockdown is extended for months, because they gave their vaccines away?

Cork2021

wadacrack wrote: »

Vaccine proving to be very effective in Israel, promising signs for when the rest of Europe catches up

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1356313705684869121

You’ve got to love these charts!!

Sky King

marno21 wrote: »

Would likely require the UK donating surplus vaccines to Ireland. There seems to be resistance to this which I can't understand

I guess it would be the UK trolling the EU, wouldn't it? I presume our crowd would turn down such an offer, saying "oh we'd have to distribute them across the EU".

Nothing stopping the British setting up a vaccination station in Newry and inviting us up though eh?

If it meant getting a vaccine sooner, I'd go, as I suspect would many others!

frozen3

Flying Fox wrote: »

I'm glad you posted this as my mother has tested positive in a nursing home, just over a week after getting the first vaccine. She has underlying conditions so it's a big worry. It does seem milder so far than the outbreak they had in the first wave. My mam's only symptoms were vomiting for a few hours at the beginning, and fatigue. So far no breathing problems and we're just hoping it stays that way.

All the best to your mother, the signs are encouraging for sure, they honestly believe the vaccines even a week in are doing something, hope she will be fine

eoinbn

marno21 wrote: »

If we are getting 2.4m vaccines from Pfizer alone in Q2 we will be over the hump by mid summer.

2.4m from Pfizer + Moderna + AstraZeneca + J&J + possibly Novavax. Does anyone have figures for those other companies?

I believe that the plan last published was 700k vaccinated in Q1 and 1.9m in Q2. That would imply 3.8m doses (depending on which proportion is J&J) being delivered in Q2. If we are getting 2.4m from Pfizer alone that means we only need 1.4m from the other 3/4 companies to meet our target. The 700k from Q1 is being revised down to 550-600k now I believe, but even with that in mind we could be looking at 2m+ vaccinated by the end of June. That would be immense.

AstraZeneca was projected to be about 1.4m in Q2. I don't see their production issues disappearing on April 1st. The 9m extra doses that they found a few days ago could well be doses from Q2 that have been brought forward. However they might be able to make up ground later in the quarter. Lets say 1m

J&J - ~500k(single dose so 1m of the other vaccines). Apparently they have production issues and wont hit their US targets. Not sure if that will impact the EU supply but it isn't a good sign. Lets say 300k

Curevac - This was also projected to be about 500k doses but they seem to be making slow progress. It was suppose to start shipping in Q1 but that isn't going to happen. Hopefully they can start production well in advance of the P3 trials results and have a decent stockpile.
Lets say 200k.

Moderna - 450k. Moderna's numbers have been small but they were projected to be small. Slightly behind target at the moment but they believe they can hit their Q1 target.

Novavax - Going to say 0 for now. EU hasn't signed a contract.

1m + 300k( * 2) + 200k + 450k = 2.2m doses or 1.1m people fully vaccinated - excluding BioNtech/Pfizers which will double this number.
If the companies hit their targets we would probably struggle to use our full supply.

Malcomex

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

It's political suicide. What happens when unvaccinated people in the UK die or their lockdown is extended for months, because they gave their vaccines away?

Holistically speaking that's the way it should work

Lockdown extended in the UK while the rest of the world is vaccinated

Not going to happen for selfish and political reasons but could give a better overall outcome over the longer term

Hence the WHO recommendation , they are apolitical

daydorunrun

marno21 wrote: »

Good opinion piece in the FT (paywalled though) about the UK and Ireland potentially becoming a "Common Immunity Area" when the vaccines are rolled out given the level of travel between the two countries and the shared border.

https://www.ft.com/content/cfb1b55c-17a9-449d-bc87-fed41c0211ae

Good points made about the cross border travel, the number of each other's residents living in the other country, the border etc.

Would likely require the UK donating surplus vaccines to Ireland. There seems to be resistance to this which I can't understand - it would be useful for us to use any means necessary to vaccinate people in light of the mess the EU programme has become in terms of procurement

Well that would make up for taking all our good spuds back in the day.

marno21

eoinbn wrote: »

AstraZeneca was projected to be about 1.4m in Q2. I don't see their production issues disappearing on April 1st. The 9m extra doses that they found a few days ago could well be doses from Q2 that have been brought forward. However they might be able to make up ground later in the quarter. Lets say 1m

J&J - ~500k(single dose so 1m of the other vaccines). Apparently they have production issues and wont hit their US targets. Not sure if that will impact the EU supply but it isn't a good sign. Lets say 300k

Curevac - This was also projected to be about 500k doses but they seem to be making slow progress. It was suppose to start shipping in Q1 but that isn't going to happen. Hopefully they can start production well in advance of the P3 trials results and have a decent stockpile.
Lets say 200k.

Moderna - 450k. Moderna's numbers have been small but they were projected to be small. Slightly behind target at the moment but they believe they can hit their Q1 target.

Novavax - Going to say 0 for now. EU hasn't signed a contract.

1m + 300k( * 2) + 200k + 450k = 2.2m doses or 1.1m people fully vaccinated - excluding BioNtech/Pfizers which will double this number.
If the companies hit their targets we would probably struggle to use our full supply.

By that metric, including 550k for Q1 fully vaccinated and 2.4m doses from Pfizer, you'd have all groups bar the remaining 2 (18-54 year olds + kids/pregnant women) vaccinated by June. Which would mean that mass vaccination of those not in special groups would begin in June.

I know it's reliant on stuff not going wrong but we'd have herd immunity by late July/early August in this instance.

Apogee

eoinbn wrote: »

Short version: One reason why I think it is additional is because I saw a report that Germany was expecting 40m doses from BioNtech in Q2. That would mean 2.4m doses, or 200k a week, for Ireland.

One unknown here is how many dose per vial and if we would be able to extract 6 doses from every vial if we scale to 150-200k doses per week.

I've searched "Pfizer Q2" or "BioNtech Q2" and the German numbers are the closest I can find as a guide. If you look at those numbers, it looks like the Pfizer vaccines are front-loaded into Q2?

ZDF/GERMANY wrote:

Erstes Quartal 2021:
10,9 Millionen Dosen von Biontech/Pfizer
1,8 Millionen Dosen von Moderna
5,6 Millionen Dosen von Astrazeneca
Also insgesamt 18,3 Millionen.

Zweites Quartal 2021:
40,2 Millionen Impfdosen von Biontech/Pfizer
6,4 Millionen Dosen von Moderna
16,9 Millionen Dosen von Astrazeneca
10,1 Millionen Dosen von Johnson & Johnson - EMA-Zulassung vorausgesetzt
3,5 Millionen Dosen von Curevac, sofern EMA-Zulassung erfolgt
Das wären dann noch einmal insgesamt 77,1 Millionen.

Drittes Quartal 2021:
34,7 Millionen Dosen von Biontech/Pfizer
26,7 Millionen Impfdosen von Moderna
33,8 Millionen Dosen von Astrazeneca
22,0 Millionen von Johnson & Johnson
9,4 Millionen von Curevac
Das heißt insgesamt weitere 126,6 Millionen.

Viertes Quartal 2021:
13,5 Millionen von Biontech/Pfizer
44,9 Millionen von Moderna
4,8 Millionen von Johnson & Johnson
11,7 Millionen von Curevac
27,5 Millionen von Sanofi, sofern die EMA-Zulassung erfolgt
Das wären dann insgesamt noch einmal 102,2 Millionen Impfstoffdosen.

Assuming a 4.9/83 split based on population, that gives a Pfizer/BioNtech allocation for Ireland:
Q1: 654,000
Q2: 2,412,000
Q3: 2,082,000
Q4: 810,000

Q1 number seems to broadly match with information currently in public domain?

(Health Warning: This assumes all of the above doses listed in the ZDF report are sourced via the EU collective scheme, and excludes doses from the separate side deal Germany did with Pfizer).


German speakers might wish to check the original source:
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/panorama/corona-impfstoff-herstellung-lieferung-2021-100.html

marno21

Does that include the 75m additional vaccines that Biontech are bringing forward to Q2? Apologies if I’m off the mark there now.

Apogee

marno21 wrote: »

Does that include the 75m additional vaccines that Biontech are bringing forward to Q2? Apologies if I’m off the mark there now.

The article was written today at "01.02.2021 17:28 Uhr", so my guess is yes.

snotboogie

eoinbn wrote: »

AstraZeneca was projected to be about 1.4m in Q2. I don't see their production issues disappearing on April 1st. The 9m extra doses that they found a few days ago could well be doses from Q2 that have been brought forward. However they might be able to make up ground later in the quarter. Lets say 1m

J&J - ~500k(single dose so 1m of the other vaccines). Apparently they have production issues and wont hit their US targets. Not sure if that will impact the EU supply but it isn't a good sign. Lets say 300k

Curevac - This was also projected to be about 500k doses but they seem to be making slow progress. It was suppose to start shipping in Q1 but that isn't going to happen. Hopefully they can start production well in advance of the P3 trials results and have a decent stockpile.
Lets say 200k.

Moderna - 450k. Moderna's numbers have been small but they were projected to be small. Slightly behind target at the moment but they believe they can hit their Q1 target.

Novavax - Going to say 0 for now. EU hasn't signed a contract.

1m + 300k( * 2) + 200k + 450k = 2.2m doses or 1.1m people fully vaccinated - excluding BioNtech/Pfizers which will double this number.
If the companies hit their targets we would probably struggle to use our full supply.

No way we see 200k Curevac in Q2. They haven't released phase 3 data yet and in the middle of last month they said they said bringing the vaccine to market in 2021 "is doable"

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/jpm-curevac-s-new-pharma-partner-bayer-says-its-covid-vaccine-not-just-also-ran

Quantum Baloney

When they want young and healthy people between 30 and 60 to take the vaccine, how will that happen? Will they send letters inviting people to GP's surgeries or what?

Malcomex

Quantum Baloney wrote: »

When they want young and healthy people between 30 and 60 to take the vaccine, how will that happen? Will they send letters inviting people to GP's surgeries or what?

Mass vaccination centres?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843v1

A new study that shows individuals who were previously infected with the virus responded extremely well to a single dose of the mRNA vaccines. The original infection seemed to serve as a a primer with the single dose serving as the booster. There did not seem to be a difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic. It's suggests that for for those with a prior infection a single dose may be sufficient.

Happydays2020

Malcomex wrote: »

Mass vaccination centres?

Probably. Registration and given slots.

gozunda

Malcomex wrote: »

That's just a no
Sending vaccines to us after their done is in their interest obviously with the travel between the 2

The longer the 1st world leaves the 3rd world unvaccinated the greater the risk of them causing us problems

Equivalent rates of vaccinations across the UK and Ireland make sense.

Its a major issue that significant parts of the 1st world have some of the highest rates of infection and incidence of death due to Covid 19.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/85320e2ea5424dfaaa75ae62e5c06e61

If those countries don't work quickly to stop further infections in their own countries then they'll be problems enough.

China is perhaps the one country with reported low rates of infection but a well funded pharma sector already providing significant quantities of vaccines for many countries outside Europe and North America.

The WHO's geo-politics are not always the best thought out imo

funnydoggy

Hardyn wrote: »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843v1

A new study that shows individuals who were previously infected with the virus responded extremely well to a single dose of the mRNA vaccines. The original infection seemed to serve as a a primer with the single dose serving as the booster. There did not seem to be a difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic. It's suggests that for for those with a prior infection a single dose may be sufficient.

That makes so much sense, brilliant

Cork2021

So Fergal Bowers on the 9 o clock news saying that the AstraZeneca vaccine is an option for over 65’s as is the Pfizer and moderna vaccines.
So looks like we’ll be vaccinating a large cohort of people in our local GP surgeries and pharmacies

Happydays2020

gozunda wrote: »

The WHO's geo-politics are not always the best thought out imo

An understatement. They are very Europe focused and do not see the Russian and Chinese vaccines.

Happydays2020

Cork2021 wrote: »

So Fergal Bowers on the 9 o clock news saying that the AstraZeneca vaccine is an option for over 65’s as is the Pfizer and moderna vaccines.
So looks like we’ll be vaccinating a large cohort of people in our local GP surgeries and pharmacies

An option or a choice of vaccines?