COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Sanjuro

hmmm wrote: »

I think it's too early to be making any conclusions about how the year is going to go. A lot of the manufacturers have run into production difficulties which is not surprising, but they are also working to overcome this and they are signing up partners to assist with production. We know that Pfizer in particular have signed up a number of new partners (including Sanofi and Novartis, and are in discussions with several others). J&J is a big unknown as to their production capability, but they are making some confident statements. I'm also wondering whether Glaxo & Merck are having discussions with anyone.

All that we do know is we have a number of good vaccines, and we also know that supply is going to be limited at least until the end of March and probably only really starts ramping up in April/May. Personally I think that sometime in Summer we are going to be swimming in vaccines as someone says above, but that's an optimistic view - others think it will take to the end of the year.

The variants do seem to have an impact on reducing the overall effectiveness of vaccines, but so far they don't seem to be impacting on the ability of the vaccines to prevent serious disease.

Thanks for the answer. I just wasn't sure about ramping up in terms of production. Was it a wait for more production facilities to come on line. Or as you said above, partnering up with other producers.

Mike3549

Irish Stones wrote: »

When their vaccine was approved we, over here, were promised 479k doses a week, which turn out to be millions in a European scale.
The reduction in the supplies was something, apparently, unexpected, or there wouldn't have been so much upset from the EU's leaders.

Would you have any links to back up your claim?

Roger_007

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think that the EU commission are trying to give the impression that they are waving a big stick when they haven’t actually got a stick at all. Ursula is looking completely incompetent in dealing with the vaccine procurement and has resorted to panic measures to cover up her incompetence, as we saw at the weekend.
We probably would be much better off to go it alone in vaccine procurement and we still can.

Look at the data. Outside of a few outliers, which just happen to include two countries whose media we consume en mass, where are most of the top countries in the vaccine rollout? Where are Canada, Japan, Korea, Australia and most other non aligned first world countries. The scenario many are looking for would see a first come first served vaccine death match. How do you think that would work out for most countries?

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Cole

Cork2021 wrote: »

So Fergal Bowers on the 9 o clock news saying that the AstraZeneca vaccine is an option for over 65’s as is the Pfizer and moderna vaccines.

But NIAC haven't confirmed if AZ will be used for the 65+ in Ireland...I presume he's just going on his sources? The Irish Times reported that the 12 week gap between the first and second jab (as in the UK) will not be followed here, but that's all I've heard on NIAC's thinking so far.

josip wrote: »

Does anyone have the AZ trial results for the 65+ cohort?
I'm trying to decide if we should recommend my 83 year old mother to get that one or wait for BioNTech.
She's minded herself well for the past 11 months and an extra 1 or 2 for BioNTech wouldn't be a biggie if their trial data for that cohort existed/was more reliable.

Same position here. I'd prefer my parents to get Pfizer or Moderna, but I think they'll take AZ if that's what they're offered over the coming weeks.

Cork2021

Interesting

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1356539661053755398?s=21

Hmmzis

Hardyn wrote: »

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.30.21250843v1

A new study that shows individuals who were previously infected with the virus responded extremely well to a single dose of the mRNA vaccines. The original infection seemed to serve as a a primer with the single dose serving as the booster. There did not seem to be a difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic. It's suggests that for for those with a prior infection a single dose may be sufficient.

There is also a similar study out by Krammer et al, theirs confirms the findings in this one.

That said, if you look at the neutralization titers the recovered people get it's almost otherworldly. It's also a much stricter assay (IC99 instead of IC50) where the single dose naïve titers register at around 1:60-1:70 while the convalescents + single dose ramp up to 1:20000-1:30000. Basically the 2 to 8 fold reductions in titers seen due to the variants would effectively be inconsequential for these people.

odyssey06

Yevon wrote: »

Does anyone know where a 63 year old taking immunosuppresants would fall in the priority list?

Aged 18-64 years with medical conditions* * which put them at high risk of severe disease
(immunosuppression due to disease or treatment)

Group 7
https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/

polesheep

Cork2021 wrote: »

Interesting

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1356539661053755398?s=21

If only Luke O'Neill were fronting the NPHET/HSE TV show. We'd at least have a happier outlook. Fair play to him

ninebeanrows

polesheep wrote: »

If only Luke O'Neill were fronting the NPHET/HSE TV show. We'd at least have a happier outlook. Fair play to him

The drum of fear and pessimism from our media and NPHET is appalling.

We are just months away from getting out of this, it's time for the incessant negativity to stop.

Sleety_Rain

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The drum of fear and pessimism from our media and NPHET is appalling.

We are just months away from getting out of this, it's time for the incessant negativity to stop.

If it bleeds it leads has always been the case

frozen3

polesheep wrote: »

If only Luke O'Neill were fronting the NPHET/HSE TV show. We'd at least have a happier outlook. Fair play to him

Yeah he's good

Brilliant even

Should have experts like him on the TV, US and UK have it with Dr Fauci, Chris Witty and so on, while we have GP's, physios and the president of Maynooth in Tony, Glynn, Nolan

Galwayguy35

Why don't they test the Russian and Chinese vaccines, if they are good who cares where they come from.

The Chinese would be well able to produce enough to fill the orders for the EU.

opinionated3

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Why don't they test the Russian and Chinese vaccines, if they are good who cares where they come from.

The Chinese would be well able to produce enough to fill the orders for the EU.

Personally I don't trust either of those two countries to tell the truth, let alone fill me with their vaccine ....

KrustyUCC

Yevon wrote: »

I think it's perfectly natural for NPHET to keep reiterating that the situation is still dangerous. If they start pushing the narrative that the end of the pandemic is close, it will seep into the mind's of the public who will be more likely to flout restrictions.

Alternatively keep pushing an overly negative outlook and it gives people nothing to work towards and they will say to hell with it I'm going to meet up with a friend, family, partner

KrustyUCC

Stephen Donnolly earlier

Three deliveries are scheduled before the end of the first quarter of the year he told RTÉ radio’s Morning Ireland with 35,000 doses arriving next week.

Afaik we're meant to getting 200,000 doses in Q1 so they next deliveries will be substantially bigger

Galwayguy35

Yevon wrote: »

I think it's perfectly natural for NPHET to keep reiterating that the situation is still dangerous. If they start pushing the narrative that the end of the pandemic is close, it will seep into the mind's of the public who will be more likely to flout restrictions.

People are using their own common sense at this stage, everyone knows what to do so I doubt even that many listen to the same old doom and gloom out of NPHET anymore.

Galwayguy35

opinionated3 wrote: »

Personally I don't trust either of those two countries to tell the truth, let alone fill me with their vaccine ....

Which is why I said test them first.

Sconsey

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Why don't they test the Russian and Chinese vaccines, if they are good who cares where they come from.

The Chinese would be well able to produce enough to fill the orders for the EU.

I'd love to know how you know that....apart from the fact that the Chinese will want to vaccinate their own population (the largest in the world), you seem to have insights into their production capacity? do share please.

Micky 32

Yevon wrote: »

I think it's perfectly natural for NPHET to keep reiterating that the situation is still dangerous. If they start pushing the narrative that the end of the pandemic is close, it will seep into the mind's of the public who will be more likely to flout restrictions.

Prof Nolan shouldn’t be coming out with comments like “ life won’t be going back to normal”. Not a great incentive for the vaccine for a start.

Sconsey

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

People are using their own common sense at this stage, everyone knows what to do so I doubt even that many listen to the same old doom and gloom out of NPHET anymore.

If you doubt many listen to them anymore then why are you bothered by what they are saying?

Galwayguy35

Sconsey wrote: »

I'd love to know how you know that....apart from the fact that the Chinese will want to vaccinate their own population (the largest in the world), you seem to have insights into their production capacity? do share please.

I'm a good friend of Xi Jinping

Galwayguy35

Sconsey wrote: »

If you doubt many listen to them anymore then why are you bothered by what they are saying?

I'm not.

Cole

Micky 32 wrote: »

Prof Nolan shouldn’t be coming out with comments like “ life won’t be going back to normal”. Not a great incentive for the vaccine for a start.

He's just stating the obvious truth...better than 'feel good' fairy tales. Things will get much better but not back to normal as we knew it.

Sanjuro

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The drum of fear and pessimism from our media and NPHET is appalling.

We are just months away from getting out of this, it's time for the incessant negativity to stop.

You should have a look at some Adam Curtis documentaries. In particular, The Power of Nightmares. Its specifically about the politics that lead to and proceeded the 9/11 attacks, but it goes into how politicians are all for pushing the message of fear but have no answers on how to deal with the fears they push.

Melanchthon

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-01/j-j-raises-concern-in-eu-with-plan-to-package-vaccines-in-u-s

Sounded like bad news but actually shouldn't make a difference.

Doc07

frozen3 wrote: »

Yeah he's good

Brilliant even

Should have experts like him on the TV, US and UK have it with Dr Fauci, Chris Witty and so on, while we have GP's, physios and the president of Maynooth in Tony, Glynn, Nolan

Luke is great, very positive.
FYI our GPs, Physios are fully qualified public health doctors and Maynooth President is a qualified medical doc with a PhD

gmisk

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Which is why I said test them first.

They are being tested.......it takes time...if you want it done right, they only applied on the 20th of January (sputnik the Russian one)
https://www.euractiv.com/section/health-consumers/news/russia-files-for-sputnik-vaccine-registration-in-eu/
Unless your suggesting we should just start using them without the proper testing?

josip

Cole wrote: »

He's just stating the obvious truth...better than 'feel good' fairy tales. Things will get much better but not back to normal as we knew it.

It's not the obvious truth.
Nobody can really predict more than a month in advance exactly what things will be like. I hate the term, but it really is a very fluid situation.
Predicting for the summer and beyond is crystal ball territory at this stage.
The problem we have had for too long now is that the worst case scenario stories suits both:

• NPHET, to scare people into minimising spread
• The meeja, because bad news makes more money than good news

We really need to be countering this default negativity with optimistic people.

AdamD

For all the consideration that fear drives compliance, are any of them considering that downplaying the effect of vaccinations and making this seem neverending will hurt compliance?

funnydoggy

Micky 32 wrote: »

Prof Nolan shouldn’t be coming out with comments like “ life won’t be going back to normal”. Not a great incentive for the vaccine for a start.

This pandemic certainly has changed NPHET's lives.. maybe he was projecting?