COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

harr

is_that_so wrote: »

Well, if you can magick up some vaccines we'll all be pleased. The why of this has been explained many, many, many times.

I really don’t care how many times it has been explained it’s not an explanation I was after, what ever the excuse or the logistics of the roll out it doesn’t make it any less disappointing that elderly people have to wait 4 months.

polesheep

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

If the AZ vaccine does not protect against the SA strain what’s the point in taking it?
I understand it’s effective against the Kent strain and will protect us from that but is it not just a matter of time before the SA strain becomes the dominant strain?
I feel so utterly hopeless today I have as good as cocooned, including staying out on unpaid/ sick leave as medically advised since the beginning of this and now feel like I’m back at the beginning except it’s worse as I know the isolation and despair I will be facing in to.

Also the government do not inspire me with confidence considering they were going to vaccinate our most vulnerable members of society with a vaccine with the least efficacy. Should they not have been giving the Pfizer/ Moderna all along to the elderly- they decided not to due to storage issues but they found a solution to that fairly lively when they needed to

That's not known yet. A problem at the moment is the pressure being put on scientists to come up with information RIGHT NOW! Science takes time and scientists need to be given time to conduct thorough tests and make careful evaluations. The pressure for instant 'news' means we are getting bad or rushed science and hence continuous contradictions.

timsey tiger

Storm 10 wrote: »

Did not see that bit the probably park up for a while it was just like an assembly line and fast

Dr John Campbell can be very annoying, but he had a woman from US describing her experience of getting vaccinated in US. Shey said that they put a sticker on her car to show how long she had to wait in carpark, so I'm guessing somebody then told her to go when her time was up.

Hmob

polesheep wrote: »

That's not known yet. A problem at the moment is the pressure being put on scientists to come up with information RIGHT NOW! Science takes time and scientists need to be given time to conduct thorough tests and make careful evaluations. The pressure for instant 'news' means we are getting bad or rushed science and hence continuous contradictions.

Ah polesheeps you're back

I enjoy some waffle with my waffles in the morning

St.Spodo

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

If the AZ vaccine does not protect against the SA strain what’s the point in taking it?
I understand it’s effective against the Kent & original strain and will protect us from that but is it not just a matter of time before the SA strain becomes the dominant strain?
I feel so utterly hopeless today I have as good as cocooned, including staying out on unpaid/ sick leave as medically advised since the beginning of this and now feel like I’m back at the beginning except it’s worse as I know the isolation and despair I will be facing in to.

Also the government do not inspire me with confidence considering they were going to vaccinate our most vulnerable members of society with a vaccine with the least efficacy. Should they not have been giving the Pfizer/ Moderna all along to the elderly- they decided not to due to storage issues but they found a solution to that fairly lively when they needed to

From what I have heard from the likes of Cillian De Gascun of NPHET, it is not only a matter of time before the SA strain becomes dominant. B117 is likely to be the dominant variant in Ireland, the UK and elsewhere in Europe for the foreseeable. The only way the SA strain could become dominant in Ireland is if it became dominant worldwide, which is unlikely given the travel restrictions that are in place and the transmissibility and prevalence of B117.

Ficheall

St.Spodo wrote: »

unlikely given the travel restrictions that are in place and the transmissibility and prevalence of B117.

Have we started enforcing travel restrictions now? And if B117 is suppressed by the vaccines, does that give the SA variant more chance to move in?
Has there been any study done in whether having had the original virus gives immunity from the variants etc?

seamus

The Astrazeneca/South Africa stuff is up in the air.

South Africa studied a small number of cases in young people and found that the AZ vaccine was not very effective at preventing mild/moderate covid.

Aside from the fact that they likely don't have the data to declare it ineffective, we know from other vaccines and other data that a failure to prevent mild covid symptoms does not mean the vaccine doesn't prevent deaths and hospitalisations.

This South African study did not have any cases of hospitalisation or severe covid in the vaccinated group, but it didn't have enough participants to make a call on it either way.

The media love to jump on bad news, but it looks like either South Africa have jumped the gun, or European/US media are making a bigger deal of it than it is.

Hmmzis

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

If the AZ vaccine does not protect against the SA strain what’s the point in taking it?
I understand it’s effective against the Kent & original strain and will protect us from that but is it not just a matter of time before the SA strain becomes the dominant strain?
I feel so utterly hopeless today I have as good as cocooned, including staying out on unpaid/ sick leave as medically advised since the beginning of this and now feel like I’m back at the beginning except it’s worse as I know the isolation and despair I will be facing in to.

Also the government do not inspire me with confidence considering they were going to vaccinate our most vulnerable members of society with a vaccine with the least efficacy. Should they not have been giving the Pfizer/ Moderna all along to the elderly- they decided not to due to storage issues but they found a solution to that fairly lively when they needed to

There is actually no meaningful data available about the AZ/Oxford vaccine's efficacy against the SA variant. There are more caveats to that 'study' than you could shake a stick at:

1. Sample size is insufficient, a few cases either way could skew the figures wildly.
2. Confidence intervals are so wide as to make them meaningless
3. The age group in the trial doesn't allow for any assessment of impact on severity and hospitalizations
4. The definition for moderate cases is far too wide to make any conclusions (it's a few minor symptoms to being near oxygen support)
5. It's a 4 week interval between doses in the SA trial, it's already known that that's not a great interval for ChAdOx1 efficacy.

With SA now stopping the rollout outright, it's going to be even more difficult to get any sort of data for how effective the vaccine is (or isn't). Basing policy on such a poor set of data is very disappointing.

Ficheall

The AZ data seems to have been patchy full stop. And they said from the outset (pretty sure it was at least them) that their data only focused on severe infections/hospitalisations/deaths, so I'm not sure how this is new news.

I'll not panic over SA/AZ yet, but it would be good for govs to be ready to respond to restrict the spread of vaccine resistant strains when we get the current strains in hand.

Marhay70

Hmmzis wrote: »

There is actually no meaningful data available about the AZ/Oxford vaccine's efficacy against the SA variant. There are more caveats to that 'study' than you could shake a stick at:

1. Sample size is insufficient, a few cases either way could skew the figures wildly.
2. Confidence intervals are so wide as to make them meaningless
3. The age group in the trial doesn't allow for any assessment of impact on severity and hospitalizations
4. The definition for moderate cases is far too wide to make any conclusions (it's a few minor symptoms to being near oxygen support)
5. It's a 4 week interval between doses in the SA trial, it's already known that that's not a great interval for ChAdOx1 efficacy.

With SA now stopping the rollout outright, it's going to be even more difficult to get any sort of data for how effective the vaccine is (or isn't). Basing policy on such a poor set of data is very disappointing.

I've listened to a few of the expert commentators regarding South Africa's assessment of AZ and to a man, although they have not come out and said it, they are astounded at SA's reaction. It's one thing dismissing a vaccine when you have plenty in reserve but in a world where everyone is scrambling for supply it's amazing.

polesheep

Hmmzis wrote: »

There is actually no meaningful data available about the AZ/Oxford vaccine's efficacy against the SA variant. There are more caveats to that 'study' than you could shake a stick at:

1. Sample size is insufficient, a few cases either way could skew the figures wildly.
2. Confidence intervals are so wide as to make them meaningless
3. The age group in the trial doesn't allow for any assessment of impact on severity and hospitalizations
4. The definition for moderate cases is far too wide to make any conclusions (it's a few minor symptoms to being near oxygen support)
5. It's a 4 week interval between doses in the SA trial, it's already known that that's not a great interval for ChAdOx1 efficacy.

With SA now stopping the rollout outright, it's going to be even more difficult to get any sort of data for how effective the vaccine is (or isn't). Basing policy on such a poor set of data is very disappointing.

I feel that there is too much pressure on scientists to give instant answers and not enough time for proper testing and evaluation.

josip

harr wrote: »

Speaking to relatives and friends in U.K. over the weekend that have been vaccinated one in his 50,s with mild asthma and another who had cancer 10 years ago both are now fully vaccinated which makes the roll out here even more disappointing. It’s crazy to think people like my parents in their early 80,s might not be fully vaccinated till April a full 4 months after the vaccine arrived in the country.

I'll let others judge if it is crazy thinking or not.
Should your parents have been prioritised over frontline HCWs and vulnerable people in care homes?

Tyrone212

My parents aren't too keen on getting the Oxford vaccine now after all the iffy news about age range and now especially after the South African study found it be ****e against their strain. Whereas Pfizer works against it.

Mitch Connor

josip wrote: »

You're completely correct, it's crazy thinking.
Should your parents have been prioritised over frontline HCWs and vulnerable people in care homes?

Or is it crazy to think rollout of the vaccine should be quicker than it is at something around 0.5% of the total jabs needed per week.

Tyrone212

seamus wrote: »

The Astrazeneca/South Africa stuff is up in the air.

South Africa studied a small number of cases in young people and found that the AZ vaccine was not very effective at preventing mild/moderate covid.

Aside from the fact that they likely don't have the data to declare it ineffective, we know from other vaccines and other data that a failure to prevent mild covid symptoms does not mean the vaccine doesn't prevent deaths and hospitalisations.

This South African study did not have any cases of hospitalisation or severe covid in the vaccinated group, but it didn't have enough participants to make a call on it either way.

The media love to jump on bad news, but it looks like either South Africa have jumped the gun, or European/US media are making a bigger deal of it than it is.

Average age was only 31

Prof Shabir Madhi, who led the study, told reporters it showed that "unfortunately, the AstraZeneca vaccine does not work against mild and moderate illness".

Prof Madhi said the study had not been able to investigate the vaccine's efficacy in preventing more serious infections, as participants had an average age of 31 and so did not represent the demographic most at risk of severe symptoms from the virus.

Pablo Escobar

Mitch Connor wrote: »

Or is it crazy to think rollout of the vaccine should be quicker than it is at something around 0.5% of the total jabs needed per week.

If we don't have the vaccines it's impossible to go any faster. The speed will increase as more become available, such as the ramp up that we're likely to see today. (Obviously we won't see those actual numbers for a few days).

seamus

Mitch Connor wrote: »

Or is it crazy to think rollout of the vaccine should be quicker than it is at something around 0.5% of the total jabs needed per week.

https://i.imgur.com/XMmorfJ.png

Tyrone212

Mass door to door testing in England in areas with South africa variant. Shows how worried they are about it as their vaccine isn't any good at stopping mild or moderate illness and yet to determine severe illness.

The Pfizer vaccine with one dose was found to be effective at preventing illness with the south african variant in under 80s. Over 80s needed another shot.

So how many of englands population has one shot of an ineffective vaccine if the south african strain takes off and a recent study found it be between 20 to 200% more contagious. Then they're back at square one.

stephenjmcd

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Average age was only 31

Prof Shabir Madhi, who led the study, told reporters it showed that "unfortunately, the AstraZeneca vaccine does not work against mild and moderate illness".

Prof Madhi said the study had not been able to investigate the vaccine's efficacy in preventing more serious infections, as participants had an average age of 31 and so did not represent the demographic most at risk of severe symptoms from the virus.

A professor can say what he wants however ,the study is highly flawed as pointed out and also didn't adhere to the dosing schedule. Many caveats

SusanC10

Apologies if already posted here.
South Africa have stopped use of AZ.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/covid-19-south-africa-stops-use-of-astrazeneca-jab-over-failure-to-protect-against-variant-1.4478923

Hmob

BJ will be in some bother if he's screwed up the lockdowns and the vaccinations

Disaster of epic proportions really

Mitch Connor

seamus wrote: »

https://i.imgur.com/XMmorfJ.png

Doesn't tell a full picture because there are two different strategies.

From what I can see 16.5% of the UK Population (at end of last week) has received a vaccine. To have hit the same number in Ireland we would have to have got to about 750k (i think) jabs. We are at a bout 1/3 of that I think.

You can argue the rights and wrongs of the UK plan, but if they had done the same plan as us they'd be at 8% or so of the population 'done'. Ireland are at 1.4% according to your picture.

muddypuppy

SusanC10 wrote: »

Apologies if already posted here.
South Africa have stopped use of AZ.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/covid-19-south-africa-stops-use-of-astrazeneca-jab-over-failure-to-protect-against-variant-1.4478923

A slightly more positive report: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-africa-south-africa-oxford-europe-a157e08e9c6f36e124a9005b0dc5fa00

Preliminary data from a small study suggested that the AstraZeneca vaccine offers only “minimal protection against mild-moderate disease” caused by the variant in South Africa. The variant appears more infectious and is driving a deadly resurgence of the disease in the country, currently accounting for more than 90% of the COVID-19 cases, health minister Zweli Mkhize said Sunday night.

“The AstraZeneca vaccine appeared effective against the original strain, but not against the variant,” Mkhize said. “We have decided to put a temporary hold on the rollout of the vaccine ... more work needs to be done.”

The study, which hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed, involved 2,000 people, most of whom were young and healthy. The volunteers’ average age was 31.

“Protection against moderate-severe disease, hospitalization or death could not be assessed in this study as the target population were at such low risk,” said a statement issued by Oxford University and the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg.

Scientists will be studying whether or not the AstraZeneca vaccine is effective in preventing severe disease and death against the variant, Mkhize said.

Other vaccines have shown reduced efficacy against the variant, but have provided good protection from serious disease and death.

[...]

Developers of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine expect to have a modified jab to cope with the South Africa coronavirus variant by autumn, the vaccine’s lead researcher said Sunday.

Sarah Gilbert, lead researcher for the Oxford team, told the BBC on Sunday that “we have a version with the South African spike sequence in the works.”

“It looks very likely that we can have a new version ready to use in the autumn,” she added.

seamus

Mitch Connor wrote: »

Doesn't tell a full picture because there are two different strategies.

Right. The poster was lamenting though that two of his UK relatives were "fully" vaccinated and that Ireland's rollout was disappointing by comparison.

Proportionally more Irish people are fully vaccinated than UK people. So by that metric there is nothing to be disappointed about.

Time will tell whether the UK's strategy pays off, but there's an unforeseen issue where allegedly large numbers of people are not showing up for their second dose. This would be understandable when there's a large delay between doses and a government pushing the "everything is going great because we're giving everyone one jab" line. Some people likely feel that the second dose isn't necessary and just skip it.

Hmmzis

To lift your spirits a bit on this nervous looking Monday:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.05.430003v1.full.pdf+html

1. Sera from the Pfizer/BNT vaccinated people neutralized all variants rather well, with SA variant getting a 3 fold drop in the test but still able to neutralize the virus at a 1:500 serum dilution (and well above convalescent sera against 'wild type').

2. The mink variants are only about half as infectious, so explains their extinction.

4. E484K on its own looks a bit worse than in combination with other mutations when it comes to neutralizing activity.

5. The UK variant replicates much worse in kidney cell culture (HEK 293T), not sure if that translates to any clinical significance.

6. No other variant (apart from SA) showed any significant change in neutralization against vaccine induced sera.

7. The potential increase in transmissibility is likely coming from better protein stability and the affinity increase of the 501Y residue. No variant is showing increased infectivity of cells.

Gael23

When the over 85s start next week will Pfizer doses be held back just for them in the next few weeks ensure they get their second dose or how does that work?
Or will the pay jump ahead and start 80-84 year olds?

seamus

Gael23 wrote: »

When the over 85s start next week will Pfizer doses be held back just for them in the next few weeks ensure they get their second dose or how does that work?
Or will the pay jump ahead and start 80-84 year olds?

They're not holding back doses anymore, they're planning on using everything that they've been given. So once the over-85s have had one dose, they will be moving onto the next cohort. They won't be keeping second doses in stock.

Gael23

seamus wrote: »

They're not holding back doses anymore, they're planning on using everything that they've been given. So once the over-85s have had one dose, they will be moving onto the next cohort. They won't be keeping second doses in stock.

How long are the 85+ group expected to take?

monkeybutter

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Mass door to door testing in England in areas with South africa variant. Shows how worried they are about it as their vaccine isn't any good at stopping mild or moderate illness and yet to determine severe illness.

The Pfizer vaccine with one dose was found to be effective at preventing illness with the south african variant in under 80s. Over 80s needed another shot.

So how many of englands population has one shot of an ineffective vaccine if the south african strain takes off and a recent study found it be between 20 to 200% more contagious. Then they're back at square one.

i presume that reads between 20% to 200% more contagious what rubbish

brickster69

Hmob wrote: »

BJ will be in some bother if he's screwed up the lockdowns and the vaccinations

Disaster of epic proportions really

Yes, it was a very stupid mistake. Fancy someone making a vaccine that is not as effective against something that did not even exist until the vaccine was completed.