COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

The Sunday Times was reporting yesterday that they've figured out the efficacy bit (per their CEO), and were seeing Pfizer/Moderna-like results. We're still to see the data.

There's some speculation in the media that the UK regulator might approve it as a single dose, with a booster being required a few months later. This would massively increase short-term supply.

Is the one dose about 60% efficacy?

Away With The Fairies

Serious question, if the vaccines don't stop transmission of the virus, this won't be going away, so how do we get out of this whole mess?

JacksonHeightsOwn

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Serious question, if the vaccines don't stop transmission of the virus, this won't be going away, so how do we get out of this whole mess?

worst case scenario it doesnt stop transmission, some people will get a bad cold an very very few will require hospitalisation, so why would you need to lock anything down for a virus that doesnt kill anymore, like say the Flu?

stephenjmcd

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Serious question, if the vaccines don't stop transmission of the virus, this won't be going away, so how do we get out of this whole mess?

Because it limits illness & reduces hospital admissions & deaths. Covid isn't going anywhere, its an endemic, covid vaccine essentially becomes like the flu vaccine except more effective.

A vaccine that limits the impact is perfectly acceptable

PopePalpatine

AutoTuning wrote: »

It’ll be wiped out by a combination of the two approaches.

All I’d say is thankfully we didn’t get something like this before we had this level of understanding of biotechnology. If this outbreak had happened even in the 1980s or 1990s we would have been facing dire prospects without much prospect of any solutions.

It just so happened that the pandemic coincided with a lot of these technologies being on the cusp of becoming very mainstream.

Likewise, without the level of telecommunications and IT technology we have now, the economies would have completely collapsed. Imagine trying to work from home worth a P&T dial phone, a typewriter and in an era and fax machines were still considered bleeding edge.

Could you imagine Reagan and Thatcher trying to deal with "COVID-83"? They'd make Anatoly Dyatlov look like Jacinda Ardern.

Irish Stones

obi604 wrote: »

Holy sh1t at the 450,000 a week. I presume this is a typo.

Unfortunately it is not a typo...
This is what has been said a few times by our Minister for Health in a number of TV interviews.
I wonder how they can cover good part of the country at that pace.

mike8634

AutoTuning wrote: »

It’ll be wiped out by a combination of the two approaches.

All I’d say is thankfully we didn’t get something like this before we had this level of understanding of biotechnology. If this outbreak had happened even in the 1980s or 1990s we would have been facing dire prospects without much prospect of any solutions.

It just so happened that the pandemic coincided with a lot of these technologies being on the cusp of becoming very mainstream.

Likewise, without the level of telecommunications and IT technology we have now, the economies would have completely collapsed. Imagine trying to work from home worth a P&T dial phone, a typewriter and in an era and fax machines were still considered bleeding edge.

Complete opposite I would think

People were not as not overweight and out of shape in the 1980s and life expectancy was 70's, not 80's like today

A 0.23% IFR for our fat, lazy, high blood pressure, diabetes ridden old 2020 generation would have been a 0.10% IFR in 1980, a bad flu season.

Covid has shown how weak we have become

CSWS101

mike8634 wrote: »

Complete opposite I would think



Covid has shown how weak we have become

No it hasn't. It has shown how far medicine has advanced that people can live for longer despite serious medical conditions, which would have been untreatable in the 70s and 80s.

JTMan

Calls in the UK to open vaccination centres 24/7 reports Sky News here.

- Dr Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, said: "It will take about 50 weeks to immunise 50 million people." if hours are not extended.
- The Oxford vaccine "will be the one that allows us to immunise a lot of people in a short period of time".
- If vaccination centres go 24/7 in the UK with the Oxford vaccine then it could "cut the time taken to immunise a large part of the UK population by half - from 50 weeks to 25 weeks," he said.

Speed matters. Doing vaccinations trough the night, if supply is there, makes sense.

beggars_bush

JTMan wrote: »

Calls in the UK to open vaccination centres 24/7 reports Sky News here.

- Dr Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, said: "It will take about 50 weeks to immunise 50 million people." if hours are not extended.
- The Oxford vaccine "will be the one that allows us to immunise a lot of people in a short period of time".
- If vaccination centres go 24/7 in the UK with the Oxford vaccine then it could "cut the time taken to immunise a large part of the UK population by half - from 50 weeks to 25 weeks," he said.

Speed matters. Doing vaccinations trough the night, if supply is there, makes sense.

Unless half the people don't turn up

Gael23

If you have the virus when you get the vaccine is it any use to you?

lbj666

beggars_bush wrote: »

Unless half the people don't turn up

If you know from booking the NCT, unappealing times get filled cause the nice times get booked out 2 months in advance.

Danzy

Gael23 wrote: »

If you have the virus when you get the vaccine is it any use to you?

No, you'd be over it, or under from it, before the vaccine creates antibodies

Strumms

beggars_bush wrote: »

Unless half the people don't turn up

You don’t turn up, you go to the very back of the Q.

You waste a slot that’s your call, you can have emphysema or exploding head syndrome but you don’t make it... tough.

mike8634

mike8634 wrote: »

Complete opposite I would think

People were not as not overweight and out of shape in the 1980s and life expectancy was 70's, not 80's like today

A 0.23% IFR for our fat, lazy, high blood pressure, diabetes ridden old 2020 generation would have been a 0.10% IFR in 1980, a bad flu season.

Covid has shown how weak we have become

The IFR published in the WHO study is a median and varies by population, which in many areas are considerably younger than here. The study itself also indicates the this value has been lowered lowered by measures taken to protect vulnerable groups. Studies on European populations are converging around 0.6%

Water John

I think they, like the airlines, over book slightly, to allow for some fallout.

Irish Stones

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Pfizer last week said they expected to have 12.5m vaccines supplied to the EU by the end of the year. Does that mean we should have around 135k vaccines doses here by Thursday? There doesn't seem to have been any mention of that outside of Pfizer.

Unless something happens halfway.
For instance, the next 470,000 doses for our country, Italy, are being delayed because of a snow storm.
There's always an excuse not to respect the timeline. Next time it'll be a collapsed bridge, or a sick driver.
How many "weird things" can happen over the next 10 months across the continent?

Bubbaclaus

France only vaccinated 100 people in the first 2 days and are apparently only planning to have 1.5% of the population vaccinated by the end of February. Bizarre.

Irish Stones

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

France only vaccinated 100 people in the first 2 days and are apparently only planning to have 1.5% of the population vaccinated by the end of February. Bizarre.

Spain will report people who refuse the vaccine when called. Their names will be written in a list and the list will be shared with the rest of EU.

https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/2020/12/28/news/coronavirus-spagna-in-un-registro-chi-rifiutera-il-vaccino-1.39708322

mike8634

Irish Stones wrote: »

Spain will report people who refuse the vaccine when called. Their names will be written in a list and the list will be shared with the rest of EU.

https://www.lastampa.it/esteri/2020/12/28/news/coronavirus-spagna-in-un-registro-chi-rifiutera-il-vaccino-1.39708322

All talk imo

They'll drop that fast and be back begging those antivax tourists to come in and spend money in July like they did last summer

ACitizenErased

Apple Wallet is now supporting proof of vaccination for those living in California. Interesting usage of the app.

Cork2021

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Apple Wallet is now supporting proof of vaccination for those living in California. Interesting usage of the app.

That’s a great idea! Scan a qr code on your way out after getting vaccinated. Simple and efficient too.

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

The Sunday Times was reporting yesterday that they've figured out the efficacy bit (per their CEO), and were seeing Pfizer/Moderna-like results. We're still to see the data.

There's some speculation in the media that the UK regulator might approve it as a single dose, with a booster being required a few months later. This would massively increase short-term supply.

I think we can speculate here a bit. Given the comments from AZ about having figured out the efficacy troubles, it might well be how it's achieved. Instead of a 4 week booster, it's a 12 week booster with the prime giving you a 60%ish efficacy and no hospital admissions. Getting the booster much later then brings that up to the 90% efficacy mark.

Trampas

JTMan wrote: »

Calls in the UK to open vaccination centres 24/7 reports Sky News here.

- Dr Bharat Pankhania, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, said: "It will take about 50 weeks to immunise 50 million people." if hours are not extended.
- The Oxford vaccine "will be the one that allows us to immunise a lot of people in a short period of time".
- If vaccination centres go 24/7 in the UK with the Oxford vaccine then it could "cut the time taken to immunise a large part of the UK population by half - from 50 weeks to 25 weeks," he said.

Speed matters. Doing vaccinations trough the night, if supply is there, makes sense.

What the proposal here? 9-5 with a 2 hour lunch break?

smurfjed

Not in ireland, a friend will get vaccinated tomorrow due to his age of 62, got a company email today asking if we wanted the vaccination, I was rather surprised that they gave us an option, expect to get it in the next week or so as part of the ‘vital services’ contingent.

Van.Bosch

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Israel now has 4.37% of their population vaccinated with the first dose - up from 3.23% yesterday.

5.68% today - that’s impressive. They must have got a plentiful supply from Pfizer.

Hmmzis

Hmmzis wrote: »

I think we can speculate here a bit. Given the comments from AZ about having figured out the efficacy troubles, it might well be how it's achieved. Instead of a 4 week booster, it's a 12 week booster with the prime giving you a 60%ish efficacy and no hospital admissions. Getting the booster much later then brings that up to the 90% efficacy mark.

https://www.livemint.com/science/health/efficacy-of-oxford-jabs-at-95-if-given-3-months-apart-sii-11609181643451.html

Looks like you're right.

nommm

So AZ are changing their dosing regimen again? This all seems messy to me. They need to do a press release with data. All the leaks aren’t inspiring confidence. 3 months is a long time to wait for full immunity.

stephenjmcd

nommm wrote: »

So AZ are changing their dosing regimen again? This all seems messy to me. They need to do a press release with data. All the leaks aren’t inspiring confidence. 3 months is a long time to wait for full immunity.

No they don't need to do a press release. I'd much rather they give what they have to the regulators and let them decide. They've also said they'll submit data for peer review.

All much more favourable than press release

stephenjmcd

First vaccination in St James's around 1.30pm, 79 year old paitent in the hospital, to be followed by an ICU nurse and more nurses working on covid wards.