COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Amirani

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Looks like Oxford vaccine about to get emergency use clearance in India, expected to begin rollout January 6th

This is significant as India is where most of them will be getting manufactured.

Amirani

Amirani wrote: »

This is significant as India is where most of them will be getting manufactured.

They already have 40m ready to go apparently, 100m a month by end of February. Very important for the developing world.

ACitizenErased

Close family friend just got vaccinated at the Mercy in Cork and suddenly 2021 seems better already

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They already have 40m ready to go apparently, 100m a month by end of February. Very important for the developing world.

They've been manufacturing since last summer. They'll have a very large stockpile ready to go

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They've been manufacturing since last summer. They'll have a very large stockpile ready to go

Appears they have 100m ready, with half of that actually in the vials. None of the Indian production is destined for Europe at the moment (which is fair enough imo).

UK might be a bit embarrassed considering their own supply is well behind what was promised.

Beasty

Threads merged

hmmm

Russman wrote: »

I’ve followed and found this thread and the posters to be really informative but, from a layman’s perspective, is it just me or does the AZ /Oxford situation just seem to be a bit of a sh1tshow all round ? There’s the FD/FD vs HD/FD issue, was it an accident, was it planned ? The EMA not having enough info re quality, AZ not having even applied yet for approval, the Brits approving at the drop of a hat, the timing of the doses now seeming to be open to debate.
I dunno, just seems like amateur hour with this one. As I say, purely from a layman’s perspective.

Bottom line on the AZ vaccine is that it works.

It's not unreasonable with science that they received an unusual result, went "huh?", and have gone back to investigate whether they've stumbled onto something important - the result may have been due to the half-dose, or may have been due to delays in the second dose. This is difficult to do when the whole world is watching you, but a few weeks delay will be worth the payoff. If the half-dose/full-dose thing has ended up as 10% effective, we'd never have heard from it again.

My understanding with the EU Regulator is that AZ have made the submission, and the regulator has asked for more data. Sounds like what regulators do, they're a necessary pain in the arse in every industry

VonLuck

Anyone know why the Irish vaccination stats are not showing on the ourworldindata.org website?

stephenjmcd

hmmm wrote: »

Bottom line on the AZ vaccine is that it works.

It's not unreasonable with science that they received an unusual result, went "huh?", and have gone back to investigate whether they've stumbled onto something important - the result may have been due to the half-dose, or may have been due to delays in the second dose. This is difficult to do when the whole world is watching you, but a few weeks delay will be worth the payoff. If the half-dose/full-dose thing has ended up as 10% effective, we'd never have heard from it again.

My understanding with the EU Regulator is that AZ have made the submission, and the regulator has asked for more data. Sounds like what regulators do, they're a necessary pain in the arse in every industry

Would agree with this.

As per EMA they got a data packet on 21st December from AstraZeneca and have gone back looking for more information. Get that and then look at it and say fire away and send in an application

Happydays2020

VonLuck wrote: »

Anyone know why the Irish vaccination stats are not showing on the ourworldindata.org website?

Probably because they (HSE) are not publishing the data.

Sconsey

hmmm wrote: »

Bottom line on the AZ vaccine is that it works.

It's not unreasonable with science that they received an unusual result, went "huh?", and have gone back to investigate whether they've stumbled onto something important - the result may have been due to the half-dose, or may have been due to delays in the second dose. This is difficult to do when the whole world is watching you, but a few weeks delay will be worth the payoff. If the half-dose/full-dose thing has ended up as 10% effective, we'd never have heard from it again.

My understanding with the EU Regulator is that AZ have made the submission, and the regulator has asked for more data. Sounds like what regulators do, they're a necessary pain in the arse in every industry

One of my favorite quotes...

“The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the most discoveries, is not "Eureka!" but 'That's funny...”
― Isaac Asimov

Happydays2020

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Would agree with this.

As per EMA they got a data packet on 21st December from AstraZeneca and have gone back looking for more information. Get that and then look at it and say fire away and send in an application

Detailed statement here

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/update-rolling-review-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine

Solar2021

Anyone know the vaccination forecasts month by month here?

January 100,000
Febuary 200,000
March 300,000

600,000 done by April 1st
?

Will we get the 750,000 who are classed as very vulnerable to the disease done April 1st?

stephenjmcd

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Detailed statement here

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/update-rolling-review-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine

Yeah I know, posted it the other day. They got a data packet and went back looking for more information in terms of production and quality. This is where the EMA & MHRA difffer in terms of the data requirement as the level of authorisation is different

Harry Palmr

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Close family friend just got vaccinated at the Mercy in Cork and suddenly 2021 seems better already

Tis a pity no one in the Waterford part of the South and South West Hospital Group will be able to say the same for 10 more days.

jcon1913

AdamD wrote: »

The rate of vaccinations so far is pretty irrelevant when its clear to anyone who's put a slight bit of thought into it that the rate will ramp up over time.

It’s not irrelevant if the whole population is waiting around for this process to get moving. In other words “get off your behinds HSE” - 7 days of vaccinations, get the GPS organised, recruit more vaccinators- it’s a flipping emergency in case you hadn’t noticed

Irish Stones

Gael23 wrote: »

I’m sort of thinking a significant improvement in the summer and then life as we knew it or as much as that will ever happen, by September

Different leaders have different views on this.
I heard Mr Hancock saying that a good level of normality could be achieved by Easter 2021.
Someone else in Europe (can't remember who) said end of summer 2021.
The Italian Emergency Team leader said the end of September. The same country's minister of health said end of this year.
Biden, if I'm not wrong, said Q2 in 2022.

It is possible that different countries have different targets depending on the size and population, but I thought that everything was proportional, that is larger countries have larger supply of vaccines and higher numbers of vaccination teams.

Irish Stones

Sweet.Science wrote: »

No chance . Sure the people done this year will need to vaccinated again at the start of 2022

I'm guessing we are just level 5 forever

Don't say that, such level of realism isn't too welcome

Irish Stones

irishgeo wrote: »

just like the flu vaccine is done every year.

I don't want to be negative or dismissive, just asking a genuine question.
How would "taking a vaccine every year" be going back to normality? Were we taking a vaccine every year before this?

Marhay70

Irish Stones wrote: »

I don't want to be negative or dismissive, just asking a genuine question.
How would "taking a vaccine every year" be going back to normality? Were we taking a vaccine every year before this?

Flu vaccine is annual, pneumonia every 5 years

Irish Stones

Marhay70 wrote: »

Flu vaccine is annual, pneumonia every 5 years

Well, I've never taken any of them in my life. Yet my life went on regularly, but now it seems it won't be like that without an annual vaccine.

Marhay70

Irish Stones wrote: »

Well, I've never taken any of them in my life. Yet my life went on regularly, but now it seems it won't be like that without an annual vaccine.

In Ireland that would be a personal choice but annual flu vaccine is available and recommended.
It's not clear if the Covid vaccine will be an annual event, too soon for data to be available.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Irish Stones wrote: »

Different leaders have different views on this.
I heard Mr Hancock saying that a good level of normality could be achieved by Easter 2021.
Someone else in Europe (can't remember who) said end of summer 2021.
The Italian Emergency Team leader said the end of September. The same country's minister of health said end of this year.
Biden, if I'm not wrong, said Q2 in 2022.

It is possible that different countries have different targets depending on the size and population, but I thought that everything was proportional, that is larger countries have larger supply of vaccines and higher numbers of vaccination teams.

US and UK are outside the European deal so aren't proportional.

The other thing to note is different people are betting on approval of different vaccines. The UK approved Oxford vaccine on an emergency basis. The EMA told Oxford Astra Zenaca to come back with more data.

An Irish minister recently said bulk of the country would be vaccinated by summer. Another minister said it would be 2022. The first minister was assuming approvals the second was assuming only what has alreadt been approved.

Hmmzis

Irish Stones wrote: »

Well, I've never taken any of them in my life. Yet my life went on regularly, but now it seems it won't be like that without an annual vaccine.

Vaccine or not, life is going to return to normal. With a vaccine it's possible to do it sooner and with less casualties. Once a large portion of society is resistant or even immune against this pathogen, it'll just gradually return to what people want it to return to.
Same is applicable even without any treatments and vaccines. It would be slower and with a LOT more casualties, but once resistance has been built up in the population it'll be the same process as above.
If even smallpox didn't manage to lock civilization up, neither will this disease.

marno21

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

US and UK are outside the European deal so aren't proportional.

The other thing to note is different people are betting on approval of different vaccines. The UK approved Oxford vaccine on an emergency basis. The EMA told Oxford Astra Zenaca to come back with more data.

An Irish minister recently said bulk of the country would be vaccinated by summer. Another minister said it would be 2022. The first minister was assuming approvals the second was assuming only what has alreadt been approved.

The second of those Ministers is the Minister for Justice, who the Government came out after and corrected her on that statement.

If the Government weren’t expecting a critical mass of vaccinations by summer they wouldn’t be shouting it from the rooftops because it’s setting themselves up for failure if it doesn’t come to pass. By May if we have 5/6 vaccines there is no reason we won’t have herd immunity by the summer. We won’t have eradicated the virus but we will be in a position to start living our lives again and take out of this never ending holding pattern we find ourselves in.

Micky 32

Irish Stones wrote: »

Don't say that, such level of realism isn't too welcome

Well if you think forever level 5 is realism then you are delusional, especially with the vaccines.

Micky 32

“”German firm BioNTech said Friday it was racing to ramp up production of its Covid-19 vaccine in Europe, to fill the "gap" left by the lack of other approved vaccines.””

funnydoggy

Irish Stones wrote: »

Don't say that, such level of realism isn't too welcome

What is your goal? What would you like to see happen? It's nothing but negative commentary you give.

Sky King

Irish Stones wrote: »

Don't say that, such level of realism isn't too welcome

It's only realism if its backed up by an informed opinion: a link to a good article with a respected author, a journal or a tweet from a quality source.

Otherwise it is speculative nonsense.

Sconsey

Irish Stones wrote: »

Well, I've never taken any of them in my life. Yet my life went on regularly, but now it seems it won't be like that without an annual vaccine.

Yes it will be a total nightmare, you could be looking at an hour or two out of your day once or twice a year. Abandon all hope.