COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

lbj666

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think the British decision is based on desperation. I'd hope Ireland don't follow suit. Whatever about the Oxford one, the Pfizer study was clear cut, 2 doses 3 weeks apart.

John Campbell had a great update about it yesterday and presented all the key stats from trials.

From a very small sample, while efficacy is around 60%, severe cases were reduced by 90% after first dose, now confidence interval would be quiet broad but still.

So based on Astra Zeneca
2 dose regime for half population group is 90-99% reduction for half. So 45-50% reduction overall.

1 dose full population group = 90% reduction, let's assume best case given the small sample.

Pfizer is kinda similar.
It definitely worth looking into and the new strain and 3rd wave has turned the focus even more toward how health services can be kept from the brink in the short mid term rather than the ultimate end goal.

timsey tiger

Beanybabog wrote: »

Is there a possibility a single dose won’t work at all? And it could end up wasting loads of vaccines? Or do the people who know these things know it’ll work to some extent, but how much or for how long is just not established? Like I know for the chicken pox vaccine for my kids I was told after dose 1 it was something like 80% protection but second dose brings it to 98%.... is it the same for these, or are they taking a risk and hoping it is?

My understanding is that because the administration of the Oxford AZ vaccine trial was such a cluster **** there is some indications that one dose may give protection. However, relying on this experience is not sound statisitcally, and a trial to check it would normally be required.

No evidence beyond three weeks for the Pfizer one, but there is always handwaving and supposition.

I think it comes down to what seperates us form the guys who dilute, evidence, either we accept evidence based medicine or we don't.

I guess we'll come by the evidence over time, but I'm not sure if it is ethical to administer a vaccine to a healthy person, using an unproven regime. I wonder what their consent forms are like. Esp. for those who signed up under the expectation o getting the full two doses and now are not getting the second dose for months.

hmmm

There seems to be more evidence for the delay in administering the AZ vaccine not causing any issues (and probably is beneficial). The Pfizer vaccine on the other hand has not been tested under those conditions.

I agree that it's desperation from the UK. I'm wary to crticise however, because I'm not qualified to make judgement on the dosing, and we're in a pandemic and can't be sure we won't be facing the same scenario in a few weeks if the new variant is as infectious as is believed.

I think the UK made a big call, and you have to admire their bravery (if not their wisdom) as it would be much easier to have taken a safer path. If it works they'll get little credit, if it fails it will be very obvious.

iguana

timsey tiger wrote: »

I'm 99.9999% sure you've not tought this through critically, if you had, you'd realise that this is a pretty inane statement. What was the mortality rates for these diseases before babies were bottle fed?

I have thought it through very thoroughly actually. The odds are my son would have been absolutely fine through all of those illnesses. As I was. As were the majority of my peers. As were my parents and grandparents. And yes, I'm well aware that breastfeeding isn't magic. It's baseline. The minimum protection we have evolved for our children. I'm well aware that the highest rates of deaths from measles in the modern world are in societies where breastfeeding is still more prevalent, though rarely to full-term any more. Vaccines are much more protective than breastmilk, obviously.

But pretending that these illnesses that were common childhood illnesses to many of the parents of today's children is not working. They are not going to be scared of an illness that they have nice memories of if their children are equally healthy. They just aren't. Measles has an IFR of about 0.2% and most people who die from it have pre-existing conditions. If the last 9 months have thought you anything, you'll know that vast amounts of people don't find that kind of statistic scary. And acting as if something is worse than it is, tends to make this type of person even less wary.

Vaccination of the "herd" is how we protect our most vulnerable. I don't worry too much about my son having most common childhood illnesses. Though I'll happily vaccinate him to spare him a few days of feeling a bit crappy too. Why not? My main motivation for having him vaccinated, for getting vaccinated my myself, is to protect those who aren't as lucky in their health as we have been so far. And, maybe I'm wrong, but I think that pointing out just how very fučking selfish it is not to get vaccinated if you are healthy or vaccinate your healthy children, would work better than trying to scare people about things that they just won't find scary.

Indestructable

One issue I see with giving only one dose is that when people start contracting the virus a few weeks or months after receiving the vaccine, people will start saying it's not effective, it's not worth getting and people won't want it.

It's a dangerous gamble to go against the Pfizer regime, in my opinion.

Happydays2020

Indestructable wrote: »

One issue I see with giving only one dose is that when people start contracting the virus a few weeks or months after receiving the vaccine, people will start saying it's not effective, it's not worth getting and people won't want it.

It's a dangerous gamble to go against the Pfizer regime, in my opinion.

Am I right that the dosing regime for Comirnaty is at least 21 days apart? So there may be scope to stretch that to 28 days.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/product-information/comirnaty-epar-product-information_en.pdf

stephenjmcd

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Was the British scheduling decision based on supply? Pfizer statement just now suggest no problems with supply
https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1345343347574108160?s=21

Nah it was the UK saying let's get the first dose out to as many as possible.

Tbh not sure why they thought that was best as its not trialled

stephenjmcd

Van.Bosch wrote: »

It’s hard to know, on one hand I would think, do it right and stick to the guidance. On the other hand, things are so bad in the UK and going that way here that maybe we need to do something radical.

Yeah tbh I just don't know I'd personally prefer to stick to the trialled dose and timeline.

Soon see what the EMA say

conor_mc

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Nah it was the UK saying let's get the first dose out to as many as possible.

Tbh not sure why they thought that was best as its not trialled

I recall sitting a First Aid training course, and the paramedic giving the course was asked what if you break someone’s rib giving CPR. His answer.... they’re dead if you don’t break their rib!

This is the mindset behind the UK response. The patient (the health service) is now in cardiac arrest. They can double-dose everyone again later in the year if they have to, but right now they’re performing CPR on the NHS and they’re saying they’ll just have to deal with the consequences after they’ve stabilised the patient. So the single dose acts like a circuit breaker, if you will, albeit we don’t know for how long beyond the 21-day data from the trials.

To be honest, I’m starting to think they might be right too. If we were stable at 200/300 cases a day, then definitely follow the trialled science. But desperate times call for desperate measures, and this wave looks like it is getting out of control and actually might be the worst of the three so far.

Water John

Some poster a page or two back asked about therapies. AZ also have a new therapy out that can be given to infected people. It loads up you with antibodies, similar to blood plasma but in a different way. Cannot remember the name.

lbj666

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah tbh I just don't know I'd personally prefer to stick to the trialled dose and timeline.

Soon see what the EMA say

I'd be surprised if they deviate, if they are reviewing under full marketing authorisation not emergency

Azatadine

Water John wrote: »

Some poster a page or two back asked about therapies. AZ also have a new therapy out that can be given to infected people. It loads up you with antibodies, similar to blood plasma but in a different way. Cannot remember the name.

Yeah, it was me that asked. I just think the antibody treatments sound like a fantastic band aid to get us through this period where we are not vaccinated. Seems to be very little about them over here though. REG Cov2 is the Regeneron one.

I would guess that supply would be somewhat limited and I'm not sure if its too late to use them when you are already sick enough to require hospitalisation?

I know that I'd take a shot of it if I felt that I had Covid early stages.

Treseemme.

I see the top doctor in the UK is in favour of the delayed approach

Forget his title, on the BBC yesterday

Marhay70

Treseemme. wrote: »

I see the top doctor in the UK is in favour of the delayed approach

Forget his title, on the BBC yesterday

CMO is Chris Whitty. My own thinking is, back in the summer doctors would have been delighted to have a vaccine that was 70% effective, if the Oxford vaccine is close to that with the first jab then maybe it is worth the risk to delay the booster.

Water John

Azatadine wrote: »

Yeah, it was me that asked. I just think the antibody treatments sound like a fantastic band aid to get us through this period where we are not vaccinated. Seems to be very little about them over here though. REG Cov2 is the Regeneron one.

I would guess that supply would be somewhat limited and I'm not sure if its too late to use them when you are already sick enough to require hospitalisation?

I know that I'd take a shot of it if I felt that I had Covid early stages.

Yes I think the AZ treatment works in severe cases, providing an immune type response before your own body has geared up to deal with the infection.

Solar2021

Water John wrote: »

Yes I think the AZ treatment works in severe cases, providing an immune type response before your own body has geared up to deal with the infection.

Is it $2000 a shot like Regeneron?

Antibody and vaccine treatment combined would save alot of lives

Suprised no one has thought of combining them for vulnerable yet

hmmm

https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1345398763926511620

Treseemme.

hmmm wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1345398763926511620

Our representative from the thread here in reply no .2

Gael23

I can demonstrate in an hour how they can build the Salesforce Dashboard.
It’s my job to show people how to build these😄

Gael23

Apogee wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1338484785367408640


https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1341354445880389633

Do any of you think these predictions are accurate?

Stheno

Gael23 wrote: »

Do any of you think these predictions are accurate?

Depends on how many vaccines and how much doses we get in that timeframe

JacksonHeightsOwn

hmmm wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DonnellyStephen/status/1345398763926511620

Good idea, but I'd rather a seperate post completely.

I'm sick of looking at those positive numbers, it really puts a downer on my day......

Cork2021

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Good idea, but I'd rather a seperate post completely.

I'm sick of looking at those positive numbers, it really puts a downer on my day......

I agree, you read on here then people saying don’t look at or watch the news or read boards! It’s impossible to avoid the numbers! At least with vaccine numbers being uploaded that’ll help soften the blow!

Micky 32

“Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly said it is planned that all those working and living in Ireland's 580 nursing homes - around 70,000 people - will receive their first Covid-19 vaccine dose by the end of this month.“

Gael23

Micky 32 wrote: »

“Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly said it is planned that all those working and living in Ireland's 580 nursing homes - around 70,000 people - will receive their first Covid-19 vaccine dose by the end of this month.“

Who gets all the other vaccines we should have?

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

Who gets all the other vaccines we should have?

Hospitals, i know theyre onto non-frontline staff in cork hospitals already

Van.Bosch

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Hospitals, i know theyre onto non-frontline staff in cork hospitals already

That’s great news, you’d imagine the same in a the 3 other hospitals they started with.

Chris_5339762

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Hospitals, i know theyre onto non-frontline staff in cork hospitals already

They actually aren't, or at least shouldn't be...... plenty of frontline still to go. My department for example.

ACitizenErased

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

They actually aren't, or at least shouldn't be...... plenty of frontline still to go. My department for example.

Friend of mine is IT in south infirmary, got done today. My father is maintenance in CUH, down for next week. His boss got it last Thursday.

polesheep

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Friend of mine is IT in south infirmary, got done today. My father is maintenance in CUH, down for next week. His boss got it last Thursday.

Something very wrong with this given that there are frontline staff in high risk units around the country still waiting. Tell me where the Taoiseach is from again.