COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Happydays2020

Some disquiet on vaccine roll out in Finland and Germany

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/coronavirus-daily-update/politico-coronavirus-daily-update-277/

Bubbaclaus

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Some disquiet on vaccine roll out in Finland and Germany

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/coronavirus-daily-update/politico-coronavirus-daily-update-277/

Also, total vaccines provided to date:
France 516
Netherlands 0

nommm

https://t.co/psktZ9k3Rl

Swiss company Lonza to begin manufacturing Moderna within days. Aim to do 800k/day eventually.

Polar101

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Easy to say now in hindsight oh maybe we should have ordered more

For some reason it doesn't seem to be big news that the option to order 100 million doses more was used by the EU.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-supply-european-union-100-million

Happydays2020

Do any of the Irish pharma plants have the capacity to manufacture vaccines?

Water John

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Do any of the Irish pharma plants have the capacity to manufacture vaccines?

I think they're geared towards chemical manufacture not vaccines.

hynesie08

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Also, total vaccines provided to date:
France 516
Netherlands 0

Well, that's clearly a lie, we have the slowest rollout in Europe...... Unless people on boards are wrong, but that's not possible......

Melanchthon

Polar101 wrote: »

For some reason it doesn't seem to be big news that the option to order 100 million doses more was used by the EU.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-supply-european-union-100-million

Yeah because they only activated that option five days ago much slower and smaller than the US orders (and I think the UK ) and the UK has authorized Astra Zeneca so they are in a different situation anyway.

lbj666

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Do any of the Irish pharma plants have the capacity to manufacture vaccines?

No, but pfizer have moved their production of other products here to free up capacity for vacine production elsewhere like belgium

Gile_na_gile

lbj666 wrote: »

No, but pfizer have moved their production of other products here to free up capacity for vacine production elsewhere like belgium

That's great! Do you have a source on that? What about other pharma plants since I read BioNTech/Pfizer were also establishing partnerships with other pharma companies to drive production.

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Some disquiet on vaccine roll out in Finland and Germany
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/coronavirus-daily-update/politico-coronavirus-daily-update-277/

I have been saying for ages that until countries serious about vaccination hit the supply ceiling there will not be enough pressure on production. It is good to see more of this, and I also cannot see why the EC procurement group did not overpurchase and simply move excess orders to overseas aid later. 100 million extra doses from Pfizer is too small.

hmmm

Melanchthon wrote: »

Yeah because they only activated that option five days ago much slower and smaller than the US orders (and I think the UK ) and the UK has authorized Astra Zeneca so they are in a different situation anyway.

We're going to have Moderna shortly, and Astra Zeneca not too far away.

Astra Zeneca were expected for a long time to be the first vaccine to be approved, and it made sense (for everyone) to back them heavily. No-one had Pfizer on the list to be first across the line until quite late in the year - they've done a super job. There was also a chance that Pfizer & Moderna vaccines simply failed in the trials.

I understand people are frustrated, but there didn't look much wrong to me in terms of what was ordered - there's a lot of people saying what should have been done in hindsight which is always annoying.

There was also always going to be limited supply and there are simply unrealistic expectations that manufacturers could have hundreds of millions of doses ready waiting to go. Anyone who was following this thread knew it would take many months to manufacture enough for everyone who wanted a vaccine.

lbj666

Gile_na_gile wrote: »

That's great! Do you have a source on that?

Not that convincing source only someone who works in the industry, it makes sense that they would be though.

ShineOn7

hmmm wrote: »

There was also always going to be limited supply and there are simply unrealistic expectations that manufacturers could have hundreds of millions of doses ready waiting to go. Anyone who was following this thread knew it would take many months to manufacture enough for everyone who wanted a vaccine.

As always, I appreciate your posts and info here

The problem is - with Ireland - it won't take months to get this right

At this rate I think the HSE will only have the first 14 groups vaccinated by March of next year


We need Oxford to be given the green light and we need it yesterday

jcon1913

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

I know it’s probably down to supply as well as the usual expected incompetence of the Gov & HSE, but the rate at which the vaccine roll out is happening here is really depressing. I know the rate will likely pick up but even if it does our plan could exceed a year or even two. Difficult to be positive about it all tbh.

Spot on with your estimation there. Only another few million spent on Pandemic Unemployment Payment, a few hundred cancers missed, depression amongst the population- but an orderly rollout of the vaccine- that’s what’s important. What’s a week or ten days when you’re caught unawares an not able to plan for a vaccine for, oh, months.

Lack of confidence is an understatement

marno21

I don't blame the EU for where we are regarding vaccine supply.

No one in May was suggesting that the first 2 vaccines out the blocks would be mRNA vaccines with 90% efficacy, a vaccine type never approved to date. Most though it would be Oxford/AZ and 90% efficacy was beyond expectations at the time.

The EU backed vaccine makers with pedigree such as Sanofi and GSK. People would have been freaking out if the EU had ordered hundreds of millions of doses from manufacturers with no approved products using unproven platforms.

We are where we are now and it was far from what we expected. What I would like to see if the EU throwing money en masse at manufacturers to make every single dose possible. I'm aware this isn't magic wand stuff but any feasible financial speed bump should be flattened instantly. The cost of the alternative is many multiples. Israel paid Pfizer multiples of what the EU are paying but multiples of the EU's contribution is a bargain compared to the ****e we are dealing with atm.

cheezums

israel leading the pack. how are they rolling out so fast?

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-12-14..latest&region=World

cheezums

i would imagine most countries including ireland are purposely stalling until the one jab easy to refrigerate vaccine comes online to be honest. i think i heard varadkar almost say as much the other day.

Melanchthon

hmmm wrote: »

We're going to have Moderna shortly, and Astra Zeneca not too far away.

Astra Zeneca were expected for a long time to be the first vaccine to be approved, and it made sense (for everyone) to back them heavily. No-one had Pfizer on the list to be first across the line until quite late in the year - they've done a super job. There was also a chance that Pfizer & Moderna vaccines simply failed in the trials.

I understand people are frustrated, but there didn't look much wrong to me in terms of what was ordered - there's a lot of people saying what should have been done in hindsight which is always annoying.

There was also always going to be limited supply and there are simply unrealistic expectations that manufacturers could have hundreds of millions of doses ready waiting to go. Anyone who was following this thread knew it would take many months to manufacture enough for everyone who wanted a vaccine.

I still think the Oxford/astra zeneca is going to be the most important vaccine and I understand why.

However this doesn't excuse the slow pace, the EU was aware by November I think that there was going to delays in their approval of that vaccine unless they were flexible/less rigerous like the UK is. When did the extra orders of the Pfizer vaccine come in, 6 days ago despite knowing they wouldn't approve the others in time (and even without the new strain they knew post christmas going to be a problem and AFAIK new strain isn't that much of the case load outside of the UK anyway).

Similarly it took intense pressure from Germany and others to move the approval dates forward for Pfizer by a week or two.

This isn't just me a randomer online saying it, look back at some of the links posted very senior EU politicians and industry people saying the same thing.

We judge the us very harshly but their vaccination program is currently far superior to the EU's despite the negative press

AutoTuning

I get the impression that the EU is in cost control mode instead of “just get it done”. The few quid we might save as a block by not throwing everything and the kitchen sink at this will be hugely outweighed by the costs of disruption to the European economy by a dragged out vaccine programme.

There’s been far too much “business as usual” approaches in what is the biggest emergency we have had to deal with probably since WWII.

I’m really not feeling there’s any sense of great urgency being expressed.

If it doesn’t move quickly, countries will end up bypassing the programme and that would be of huge political consequence for the EU as it would look totally incompetent.

I mean we can’t realistically go on with lockdown after lockdown and these huge spiking numbers while someone drags their feet or argues over whether vaccine prices are value. That leak in Belgium of the pricing seemed to be a local debate about whether we were getting value for money. Is it
Really the time for that?! Even at high costs we can *easily* afford it. It needs all the blocks removed and all the stops pulled out.

Cautious approval processes are one thing, but slow movement and cautious ordering or penny pinching will lead to a lot of disappointment and political problems in the months ahead.

I’m very pro European but it’s beginning to look like we might have been better off just ordering a billion worth of vaccines in Ireland and rolling out at maximum speed. Delaying is costing us billions upon billions. I don’t want to turn it into a political debate, but I think we need to start putting pressure on both domestically and at EU level to get this done.

It’s really not good enough. Europe and Ireland shouldn’t be behind the curve on this at all. We have huge resources - financial, social, logistical, technological, manufacturing and scientific. There no reason to be the laggards on this. Europe should be leading the field.

I don’t get the sense of urgency in Ireland either from the HSE or department. It’s all far too easygoing.

Polar101

AutoTuning wrote: »

I mean we can’t realistically go on with lockdown after lockdown and these huge spiking numbers while someone drags their feet or argues over whether vaccine prices are value. That leak in Belgium of the pricing seemed to be a local debate about whether we were getting value for money. Is it
Really the time for that?! Even at high costs we can *easily* afford it. It needs all the blocks removed and all the stops pulled out.

The deals have been made already, and it was always to get a supply of multiple different vaccines. Even if the EU suddenly paid 10 times more to Pfizer, there is still the issue of manufacturing capability - they can't just suddenly come up with a billion doses in a week.

Once more vaccines are approved, then there will be more supply. This was never going to be done over a period of a few days.

AutoTuning

I’m not suggesting it’s going to be done in a few days. In suggesting it could drag out well into 2022 We are seriously slow moving compared to the US at this stage and their vaccine programme is not exactly a prime example of how to get things done.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

I believe the EMA are giving a timeline for the approval of Astrazeneca in the next few days?

If it's February, I predict everyone will give them the 2 fingers and just approve it anyway - especially when the see the Brits doing millions a week.

JTMan

Interesting update on the South African strain and the effect it will have on vaccinations from Andy Slavitt, Ex-Obama health care head.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1345836504451411968

He has spent weeks investigating the more worrying South African strain.

- Possibly 60% more infectious.
- We should be more careful with kids.
- 5 weeks or so to get definitive answer if the vaccinations will work with this strain.
- His sense is that all the vaccines work on the new strain but not at the same rate. And that the vaccine platforms have different levels of effectiveness.
- Likely that vaccines will be continuously evolving. We will need to continually vaccinate in all likelihood.


The chances of frequent jabs into the future has increased.

caveat emptor

JTMan wrote: »

Interesting update on the South African strain and the effect it will have on vaccinations from Andy Slavitt, Ex-Obama health care head.

........

He has spent weeks investigating the more worrying South African strain.

- Possibly 60% more infectious.
- We should be more careful with kids.
- 5 weeks or so to get definitive answer if the vaccinations will work with this strain.
- His sense is that all the vaccines work on the new strain but not at the same rate. And that the vaccine platforms have different levels of effectiveness.
- Likely that vaccines will be continuously evolving. We will need to continually vaccinate in all likelihood.

The chances of frequent jabs into the future has increased.

I've followed this quite closely and there is huge risk with letting it run rampant. Coronavirus' were thought to be slowly evolving relative to influenza etc but if it's just the spike mutations that matter and they seem to occur with a regular frequency (annual / bi annual). If these are successfully able to escape then we'll always be just putting out fires as new more agile variants emerge. At what point is it more efficient to just eliminate it? Like how many lockdowns /vaccine iterations would make elimination preferable? Could be talking years before it dawns on people.

Add to the fact that China is a world expert in Coronavirus' and they went for the elimination / keep it out approach I'd wonder.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1345808493211693057?s=20

mandrake04

caveat emptor wrote: »

I've followed this quite closely and there is huge risk with letting it run rampant. Coronavirus' were thought to be slowly evolving relative to influenza etc but if it's just the spike mutations that matter and they seem to occur with a regular frequency (annual / bi annual). If these are successfully able to escape then we'll always be just putting out fires as new more agile variants emerge. At what point is it more efficient to just eliminate it? Like how many lockdowns /vaccine iterations would make elimination preferable? Could be talking years before it dawns on people.

Add to the fact that China is a world expert in Coronavirus' and they went for the elimination / keep it out approach I'd wonder.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1345808493211693057?s=20

The more it’s allowed to spread and more hosts it jumps the more slippery it will become, It will never be eliminated most experts around the world say at best it will just become endemic and vaccine is just crude tools to aid living with it.

stephenjmcd

JTMan wrote: »

Interesting update on the South African strain and the effect it will have on vaccinations from Andy Slavitt, Ex-Obama health care head.

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1345836504451411968

He has spent weeks investigating the more worrying South African strain.

- Possibly 60% more infectious.
- We should be more careful with kids.
- 5 weeks or so to get definitive answer if the vaccinations will work with this strain.
- His sense is that all the vaccines work on the new strain but not at the same rate. And that the vaccine platforms have different levels of effectiveness.
- Likely that vaccines will be continuously evolving. We will need to continually vaccinate in all likelihood.


The chances of frequent jabs into the future has increased.

On the last point, I think most people knew this wouldn't be a once off vaccination and would become like the flu vaccine, thats not a surprise to be perfectly honest. It's going to be an endemic. Multiple vaccines allow it to become for want of a better phrase "just another virus"

The first of the second gen vaccines from BioNTech is due in the summer at the moment.

Treseemme.

Is today the day we get motoring on vaccination?

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

On the last point, I think most people knew this wouldn't be a once off vaccination and would become like the flu vaccine, thats not a surprise to be perfectly honest. It's going to be an endemic. Multiple vaccines allow it to become for want of a better phrase "just another virus"

The first of the second gen vaccines from BioNTech is due in the summer at the moment.

At the rate we are rolling out vaccines and the level of transmission it's unclear if vaccines will be able to be developed and administered at pace to make it just another virus. It might be. That would be great but we've consistently been caught out by wishful thinking.

JacksonHeightsOwn

Treseemme. wrote: »

Is today the day we get motoring on vaccination?

Who knows.....

Treseemme.

chrisbonnie wrote: »

Who knows.....

We'd want to be moving on from 2000 quickly