The UK COVID variant

stephenjmcd

Danzy wrote: »

Boris Johnson doesn't benefit from this variant. He probably is now damaged politically beyond repair, the man who killed Christmas for South East England. Massive damage to his party as well.

That's before one even starts on the economic damage.

It's real tin hat to think this was planned or that it benefits anyone, anywhere.

Who's saying anything about it being planned ? That's silly talk. The questions are being asked about their modeling and the data or current lack of.

IAMAMORON

Danzy wrote: »

It's real tin hat to think this was planned or that it benefits anyone, anywhere.

It might not have taken too much planning, but it is a nice schtick for everyone to wave around for a few weeks?

Brexit has been getting kicked down the street for 4 years now and finally it is coming home to roost. Having a travel ban for a few weeks is nice cover for the dilapidation of UK trade because of their lack of negotiating.

How the UK mutation was suddenly dangerous to the entire planet is just far too convenient for a lot of agendas imo? As I posted earlier it is a win win for the coalition gubbermint also, they have a nice excuse for locking the country down now and also to intimidate any Ex Pats who were on the fence about coming home. They can't travel now.

ceadaoin.

Danzy wrote: »

Boris Johnson doesn't benefit from this variant. He probably is now damaged politically beyond repair, the man who killed Christmas for South East England. Massive damage to his party as well.

That's before one even starts on the economic damage.

It's real tin hat to think this was planned or that it benefits anyone, anywhere.

I think they bigged it up to justify their new lockdown and scare people into compliance. Thats backfired on them big time though. I dont think they were quite expecting the reaction from other countries

ShineOn7

It would make you wonder if this new strain is actually just to cover up the appalling job done by Boris & Co. As in; it's still the same variant, they just made that much of a balls of things

This Tweet is worth re-posting (apologies that it's from RTE)

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1341091171083444224?s=19

That aside, I've a question:

How many more times is Covid now estimated to be infectious compared to the Flu? This is separate from IFR or CFR, but the actual infectious rate of it now?

Last I read, the main problem with Covid was how many more times infectious it was compared to the Flu, i.e. very, very infectious by comparison

If this new variant is 70% more infectious compared to where we were last week, it would be interesting to work out where we stand on it now versus the infectious rate of Flu

hmmm

Danzy wrote: »

Boris Johnson doesn't benefit from this variant. He probably is now damaged politically beyond repair, the man who killed Christmas for South East England. Massive damage to his party as well.

That's before one even starts on the economic damage.

It's real tin hat to think this was planned or that it benefits anyone, anywhere.

I can see a definite political advantage. The South East of the UK was in their Tier 2 lockdown, opened too early, and cases would probably have spiked even under a "normal" virus. Boris would have been forced to order a lockdown before Christmas and take full blame for getting it wrong. He has consistently over-promised and under-delivered.

Not saying that is what happened, but this new variant arrived at a very politically convenient time. I'm not sure however they anticipated the foreign response, although it was obvious it would happen.

nacho libre

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I think they bigged it up to justify their new lockdown and scare people into compliance. Thats backfired on them big time though. I dont think they were quite expecting the reaction from other countries

I think Boris was shown grim stats that forced his hand into a humiliating u- turn. As far back as September he stated he would save Christmas. His narcissism means he is unable to learn from previous mistakes whereby he made grand promises... His supporters on this forum won't admit it, but the man is in over his head.
The idea that this is all a grand conspiracy to punish the UK for Brexit is silly. It's not only the UK that suffers from a suspension of travel.

lawrencesummers

Boris is racking his brains now for a distraction.

Maybe he could suggest the Northern Ireland bridge again?

jojofizzio

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Boris is racking his brains now for a distraction.

Maybe he could suggest the Northern Ireland bridge again?

Is he rebuilding the Giant’s Causeway??

lawrencesummers

If anyone wants to see how seriously the UK has been taking the restrictions turn on the darts.

5 people on stage.

2 players, 2 scorekeepers and a MC.

Not a mask in sight, all 5 elbow to elbow, no effort made to have any space, screens, visors.

ACitizenErased

lawrencesummers wrote: »

If anyone wants to see how seriously the UK has been taking the restrictions turn on the darts.

5 people on stage.

2 players, 2 scorekeepers and a MC.

Not a mask in sight, all 5 elbow to elbow, no effort made to have any space, screens, visors.

Uhhh you realise they're tested daily?

nocoverart

lawrencesummers wrote: »

If anyone wants to see how seriously the UK has been taking the restrictions turn on the darts.

5 people on stage.

2 players, 2 scorekeepers and a MC.

Not a mask in sight, all 5 elbow to elbow, no effort made to have any space, screens, visors.

Sweet jeesus, it feels like March again.

lawrencesummers

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Uhhh you realise they're tested daily?

I see a lot of sports people sitting alone in stands wearing masks unnecessarily, but you can understand that the optics are important.

The darts players I can understand not wearing a mask, but there is a duty on employers here to ensure adequate precautions are in place, either that doesn’t exist in England, or the Darts are ignoring them, or nobody cares.


The irony that they are not taking any extra precautions is interesting considering they are not allowed have any fans in because of the scale of spread in London.

odyssey06

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Uhhh you realise they're tested daily?

Should still be wearing visors.
You could take someones eye out...

ACitizenErased

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I see a lot of sports people sitting alone in stands wearing masks unnecessarily, but you can understand that the optics are important.

The darts players I can understand not wearing a mask, but there is a duty on employers here to ensure adequate precautions are in place, either that doesn’t exist in England, or the Darts are ignoring them, or nobody cares.


The irony that they are not taking any extra precautions is interesting considering they are not allowed have any fans in because of the scale of spread in London.

Why would the players/referees need to wear masks if they're tested daily?
If you watch them as they're walking off all the security etc are wearing masks.

teachinggal123

Blondini wrote: »

And there she blows...

Another thread infected by the odd-balls. Pity theres not a vaccination againt this type of infection.

All the post was missing were the usual phrases of the dimwitted, namely "nonsense" , "curtain twitchers" , " hide under your bed" .... blah de fcucking blah.

Scarlet for ya.

Blondini wrote: »

Oh dear.

The thing I love about about Facebook etc, is that you can actually see what a fool with views like this, looks like. Look at the ridiculousness in their face. Here, it's just a username.

There is absolutely no need to sink to personal insult. People are allowed to have their own opinions - whether or not you think they are misguided - and this does not make them a "fool", an "odd-ball" or "dimwitted".

Posts reported.

Necro

teachinggal123 wrote: »

There is absolutely no need to sink to personal insult. People are allowed to have their own opinions - whether or not you think they are misguided - and this does not make them a "fool", an "odd-ball" or "dimwitted".

Posts reported.

Mod:

This has already been dealt with if you read the thread fully.

Don't bait other posters by telling them you've reported their posts in future, just report and leave it to the mods as your comment is just derailing the thread and is wildly off topic.

Kermit.de.frog

France in no hurry

stephenjmcd

On the latest "evidence" published by the UK tonight, its not giving much new at all.

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1341147206506717187?s=19

"This should be considered as an intermediate update, which does not answer any of the key questions around the possible mechanisms by which the B 1.1.7 lineage may have gone up in frequency in the UK, nor does it shed much light on its biology."

Kermit.de.frog

Johnson under increasing pressure for a national tier 4 lockdown for England


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/21/calls-for-national-lockdown-in-england-to-curb-spread-of-new-covid-strain

Boris Johnson is facing intense pressure to impose another national lockdown within days, as more than 40 countries banned arrivals from the UK in an effort to keep out a new fast-spreading variant of coronavirus.

Government scientific advisers warned that inaction could cost tens of thousands of lives and risk an “economic, human and social disaster”, with the new strain spreading across the UK and overseas.

The UK have really messed things up here.

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

If anyone wants to see how seriously the UK has been taking the restrictions turn on the darts.

5 people on stage.

2 players, 2 scorekeepers and a MC.

Not a mask in sight, all 5 elbow to elbow, no effort made to have any space, screens, visors.

22 blokes were running around a football pitch earlier and not a mask in site. Plenty of hugging going on as well.

Shocking.

caveat emptor

stephenjmcd wrote: »

On the latest "evidence" published by the UK tonight, its not giving much new at all.

"This should be considered as an intermediate update, which does not answer any of the key questions around the possible mechanisms by which the B 1.1.7 lineage may have gone up in frequency in the UK, nor does it shed much light on its biology."

Like it's Public Health England. The same kinda variant also emerged in South Africa. Do you really think that this is not real?

Considering the reaction by the whole of Europe and the world I think you are Barking up the wrong tree. It could be a coincidence of course and those 300+ areas just all happened to not follow restrictions etc and the variant is not an issue but that's unlikely. More info needed etc

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/947048/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf

Spike gene target failure (SGTF) can serve as a proxy for carriage of the VOC (cf. Section Impact on diagnostic assay below). Classifications of SGTF are preliminary as case definitions are still being developed. On this basis, we adjusted rates of SGTF for variable specificity over time and between local authorities and then applied the same models to estimate the association of VOC frequency and reproduction number. This analysis shows an increase of Rt of 0.52 [95%CI: 0.39-0.70] when we use a fixed effect model for each area. We also fitted a similar model but with a random effect model on the area, giving an estimated additive effect of 0.60 [95%CI:0.48 - 0.73]. Similar estimates of 0.56 [95%CrI:0.37-0.75] were obtained using a Bayesian regression model accounting for errors in VUI frequencies and Rt estimates.

S.A paper

This lineage emerged in South Africa after the first epidemic wave in a severely affected metropolitan area, Nelson Mandela Bay, located on the coast of the Eastern Cape Province. This lineage spread rapidly, becoming within weeks the dominant lineage in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape Provinces. Whilst the full significance of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data, showing the rapid displacement of other lineages, suggest that this lineage may be associated with increased transmissibility.

https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1341092622153052160?s=20

ACitizenErased

Not sure if anyone posted this earlier. The WHO have said there is no need for any major alarm over this new strain.
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1341091171083444224?s=20

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

Like it's Public Health England. The same kinda variant also emerged in South Africa. Do you really think that this is not real?

Considering the reaction by the whole of Europe and the world I think you are Barking up the wrong tree. It could be a coincidence of course and those 300+ areas just all happened to not follow restrictions etc and the variant is not an issue but that's unlikely. More info needed etc

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/947048/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf



S.A paper



https://twitter.com/richardneher/status/1341092622153052160?s=20

Did I say it wasn't real ? I'm not questioning if its real. The question is the 70% piece. Also just an FYI the SA variant has already been said to not be same variant

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340359989395861506?s=19

You can post UK documents as much as you want at the end of the day independent virologist, ECDC, WHO and other European countries are all saying show us the evidence. What else are they supposed to do in the meantime ? That's right take the sledgehammer approach which they've done, no other options available. That technical report tonight doesn't do anything to assist countries. They're literally saying show us the evidence, the hard data, get it peer reviewed, then no problem, the data is what it is. However its not forthcoming at the moment. They can publish as many technical papers as they want they've not backed it up yet.

More information is indeed needed. I'll leave this here for you, "Does not answer any key questions"

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1341147210197688321?s=19

Kermit.de.frog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure if anyone posted this earlier. The WHO have said there is no need for any major alarm over this new strain.
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1341091171083444224?s=20

Not major alarm. The UK's chief scientific advisor is alarmed just not majorly.

He wants the tier 4 lock downs in the southeast extended to other parts of England ASAP.

caveat emptor

Ok not wording correctly. So you think it's "Real" but you don't think it's a cause for concern? WHO didn't think it was a pandemic.
Very important not to panic. Also very important not to underestimate things. Spent the best part of a year being told there's no cause for concern with this pandemic etc. Borders won't be closed, there won't be another wave, it's not airborne. etc etc etc
You should get on to gov and tell them nothing to see here, get the flights going again.

I agree there is a lot we don't know but here's what we do know.

• Significant mutation
• Has become the dominant strain in affected areas very quickly implying increased transmissibility.
• Cases are through the roof in those areas
• borders have been closed including freight with France
• UK doing staggered return to schools with testing
• Clear geographic aspect to this.

Those things in and of themselves are cause for concern.

Kermit.de.frog

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'm sure the Élysée Palace has been provided with such maps as well... Johnson thinks he can talk Macron in to going easy on access through Dover.

Somehow I don't think so.

ACitizenErased

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not major alarm. The UK's chief scientific advisor is alarmed just not majorly.

He wants the tier 4 lock downs in the southeast extended to other parts of England ASAP.

Yet:
1) They still haven't provided the evidence ECDC and rest of EU countries have asked them for
2) They ended their 'lockdown' at 20,000 cases per day.


But it's because of the new strain, yeah right.

Kermit.de.frog

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Yet:
1) They still haven't provided the evidence ECDC and rest of EU countries have asked them for
2) They ended their 'lockdown' at 20,000 cases per day.


But it's because of the new strain, yeah right.

So you must think the UK is mutilating itself then, right? For Johnson's sake.

Not only inducing more chaos at home but an increasingly forlorn and desperate looking country being isolated systematically from it's main trading partners and the effect that has on vital supply chains.

Yeah right...

caveat emptor

Good video about the variation. S.A and UK one but have a similar structural change to the spike. (don't need to be identical)

https://twitter.com/ClaireByrneLive/status/1341158272255070214?s=20

stephenjmcd

caveat emptor wrote: »

Ok not wording correctly. So you think it's "Real" but you don't think it's a cause for concern? WHO didn't think it was a pandemic.
Very important not to panic. Also very important not to underestimate things. Spent the best part of a year being told there's no cause for concern with this pandemic etc. Borders won't be closed, there won't be another wave, it's not airborne. etc etc etc
You should get on to gov and tell them nothing to see here, get the flights going again.

I agree there is a lot we don't know but here's what we do know.

• Significant mutation
• Has become the dominant strain in affected areas very quickly implying increased transmissibility.
• Cases are through the roof in those areas
• borders have been closed including freight with France
• UK doing staggered return to schools with testing
• Clear geographic aspect to this.

Those things in and of themselves are cause for concern.

You can be as condescending as you want in your reply doesn't really bother me. By all means continue to quote a technical report which is already being widely dismissed as adding nothing to whats known so far.

I don't need to get onto government as you say, seems like them and their European partners are already asking the same questions. De Gascun referenced it at todays press conference.

Until the UK provide what they've been asked to provide then there's question marks on the 70% figure. Until then take the sledgehammer approach that's in place now and row back if evidence allows.

Its an opinion forum, your entitled to your view I'm entitled to mine and until theres more evidence im not forming an opinion either way but at the moment if a professor who has been sequencing all the way through and publishing peer reviewed papers on mutations says there isn't enough evidence to answer key questions I'd say he might be a better judge than you or I.

A long way to go yet let's see what happens.