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The UK COVID variant

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    #452
    B.A._Baracus
    Registered Users Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Its a u-turn due to a NEW variant. Or in Boris mind, not a u-turn at all. Thats the point.

    I definitely belive he over egged it with the intention being for internal politics only so that he had something to point too other than his own failings.

    Anyone who believes Boris is a white night trying to save the world from a new contagion is naive to the point of stupid imo.

    Wouldnt that be a conspiracy tho?
    For so many scientists to agree to backup the fact it's more dangerous. For everyone in between who knows this to be fake to keep their mouth shut?

    We're going into more conspiracy theory now...


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    #453
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,323 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    B.A._Baracus wrote: »
    Wouldnt that be a conspiracy tho?
    For so many scientists to agree to backup the fact it's more dangerous. For everyone in between who knows this to be fake to keep their mouth shut?

    We're going into more conspiracy theory now...

    I'm not saying anything is fake. The below is all true as far as I'm concerned:

    1. New variant discovered in England, which is becoming a dominant strain from the data they currently have.
    2. IFR in the UK, England mostly is completely out of control and they needed tighter restrictions.

    What I do not take from the above is that point 2 is because of point 1. I think Boris has decided that's exactly what has happened. Whether that's because he truly believes that or whether thats because it suits his own personal agenda we'll never know.

    Stats/data and computer modeling don't need to be falsified or exaggerated for them to be wrong or misinterpreted so there doesn't need to be any dodgy scientists or even a full blown conspiracy there just needs to be a bias in how the data is used.


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    #454
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,743 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Its a u-turn due to a NEW variant. Or in Boris mind, not a u-turn at all. Thats the point.

    I definitely belive he over egged it with the intention being for internal politics only so that he had something to point too other than his own failings.

    .

    Boris is a narcissist who craves to be popular. He only agreed to the u- turn at the last minute because he had staked it all on being the man who would save Christmas for the British people. He made the situation far worse for himself by dithering. He has suffered a public humiliation in implementing these measures. The perception being he is the Grinch that stole Christmas for British people.


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    #455
    Mr.Wemmick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Mr.Wemmick


    B.A._Baracus wrote: »
    Wouldnt that be a conspiracy tho?
    For so many scientists to agree to backup the fact it's more dangerous. For everyone in between who knows this to be fake to keep their mouth shut?

    We're going into more conspiracy theory now...

    No it's not. It's par of the course with Johnson here in the UK. What better way to hide the shambles that is brexit if not under a thick layer of drama with tier 4 and a new dangerous variant. Patel is even out this morning saying schools will be closed for 4 weeks in Jan. Lots of truth (scientific concern) and hot air whipped into a political drama.

    Funny thing is Macron stole his thunder and he's livid, lol.

    Caution is certainly needed with the new variant and more scientific research to give us answers. Meanwhile the NHS is beginning to struggle and this is the reason we have Tier 4.


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    #456
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    I'm not saying anything is fake. The below is all true as far as I'm concerned:

    1. New variant discovered in England, which is becoming a dominant strain from the data they currently have.
    2. IFR in the UK, England mostly is completely out of control and they needed tighter restrictions.

    What I do not take from the above is that point 2 is because of point 1. I think Boris has decided that's exactly what has happened. Whether that's because he truly believes that or whether thats because it suits his own personal agenda we'll never know.

    Stats/data and computer modeling don't need to be falsified or exaggerated for them to be wrong or misinterpreted so there doesn't need to be any dodgy scientists or even a full blown conspiracy there just needs to be a bias in how the data is used.

    and the assorted subject matter experts that put their name to this are all guilty of bias in the way they are reporting it?

    Again, read the BBC article. The assumption that it could be up to 70% more infectious came from Dr Erik Volz of Imperial College London. There is a link to his presentation in the article It's about 2:40 in to the overall meeting.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846


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    #457
    wirelessdude01
    Registered Users Posts: 8,423 ✭✭✭wirelessdude01


    Mr.Wemmick wrote: »
    Patel is even out this morning saying schools will be closed for 4 weeks in Jan.

    Have you a link to this? Cannot find it anywhere.

    Found it on the Daily Fail.


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    #458
    B.A._Baracus
    Registered Users Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    Mr.Wemmick wrote: »
    No it's not. It's par of the course with Johnson here in the UK. What better way to hide the shambles that is brexit if not under a thick layer of drama with tier 4 and a new dangerous variant. Patel is even out this morning saying schools will be closed for 4 weeks in Jan. Lots of truth (scientific concern) and hot air whipped into a political drama.

    Funny thing is Macron stole his thunder and he's livid, lol.

    Caution is certainly needed with the new variant and more scientific research to give us answers. Meanwhile the NHS is beginning to struggle and this is the reason we have Tier 4.

    I hope you're right.
    I really don't like the idea of a genuine 70% more infectious strain kicking about.


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    #459
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,743 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    Well to start with the confidence interval their using is as wide as a house which suggests noisy data.

    Anyway we await the divergence of what's being asked for, just have to wait for it and see what comes.

    That is conjecture on your part. These experts know what they are doing. As you say let's just wait for their findings to be released.


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    #460
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    nacho libre wrote: »
    That is conjecture on your part. These experts know what they are doing. As you say let's just wait for their findings to be released.

    My understanding is that The findings have all been released, but there is simply not enough data at the moment to be certain.


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    #461
    Mrs OBumble
    Registered Users Posts: 25,913 ✭✭✭✭Mrs OBumble


    B.A._Baracus wrote: »
    I really don't like the idea of a genuine 70% more infectious strain kicking about.

    With the current one, about 10% of close contacts got it (on average).

    A 70% increase would take this to 17%.

    I'd be more worried if it was more virulent.


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    #462
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    Very uncanny how the most virulent mutation in the UK waited to rear its' ugly head the same week the ports turned into meltdown over Brexit.

    I mean you couldn't make it up?

    70% - all the doomers out on RTE now.


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    #463
    Mr.Wemmick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Mr.Wemmick


    B.A._Baracus wrote: »
    I hope you're right.
    I really don't like the idea of a genuine 70% more infectious strain kicking about.

    Fortunately, me being right or wrong has very little to do with it - we must wait for reputable scientific peer research to find out where we are with the new variant.

    Meanwhile nothing is certain, but I certainly would not pay a blind bit of notice to a fool PM who is incapable of telling the truth.. nor able to count trucks in a carpark in Kent.


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    #464
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Mr.Wemmick wrote: »
    Fortunately, me being right or wrong has very little to do with it - we must wait for reputable scientific peer research to find out where we are with the new variant.

    Meanwhile, nothing is certain, but I certainly would not pay a blind bit of notice to a fool PM who is incapable of telling the truth.. nor able to count trucks in a carpark in Kent.

    for the third time https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846


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    #465
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,665 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    EU have recommended lifting of travel bans, instead recommending against non essential travel


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    #466
    cmac2009
    Registered Users Posts: 1,439 ✭✭✭cmac2009


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    EU have recommended lifting of travel bans, instead recommending against non essential travel

    Ireland has extended the travel ban until the end of the year.


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    #467
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,665 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    cmac2009 wrote: »
    Ireland has extended the travel ban until the end of the year.

    Going completely against European recommendations.

    https://twitter.com/danielferrie/status/1341373505192022018?s=21


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    #468
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    It's interesting reading that one of the mutations/deletions in the new UK strain affects a thing called the ORF8 protein. An ORF8 deletion variant in Singapore a few months ago had significantly reduced lethality. I'm not qualifed to comment, but silver linings potentially and all that.


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    #469
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users Posts: 11,665 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's interesting reading that one of the mutations/deletions in the new UK strain affects a thing called the ORF8 protein. An ORF8 deletion variant in Singapore a few months ago had significantly reduced lethality. I'm not qualifed to comment, but silver linings potentially and all that.

    I’m led to believe that generally more infectious = less lethal in terms of viruses, no? That would make sense


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    #470
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I’m led to believe that generally more infectious = less lethal in terms of viruses, no? That would make sense
    None of us here are experts, but from what I've read over the long term (decades) evolution will do that. In the short term, anything can happen. Ultimately a virus which spreads better will be favoured through natural selection, and if it kills its hosts it's probably not going to be a successful virus.

    The Spanish flu started off with a weak variant, then came back with a killer, then disappeared. SARS1 was lethal at first, and then a new variant emerged (with an ORF8 change) and disappeared.

    This is an interesting read:
    https://www.virology.ws/2020/01/23/a-lesson-from-sars-cov-for-2019-ncov/


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    #471
    IAMAMORON
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 9,078 ✭✭✭IAMAMORON


    cmac2009 wrote: »
    Ireland has extended the travel ban until the end of the year.

    I alluded to it earlier, but this new strain is a win win for all European domestic governments.

    It will certainly temper cross border travel in Ireland - the north has gotten out of hand for a few weeks now, to the point that border Ambulances are having to crossover and give them a dig out.

    The fact is that the gubbermint have recognised that the end of this virus is in clear sight with the introduction of the vaccine in a few weeks. The last thing they need is clowns ripping the piss over Christmas - even frontline workers go home to meet mammy for a few days and pop into pals. They are putting on the heavy hand to ensure that there are no unnecessary outbreaks over Crimbo. It actually makes sense given the close proximity to national inoculation.


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    #472
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's interesting reading that one of the mutations/deletions in the new UK strain affects a thing called the ORF8 protein. An ORF8 deletion variant in Singapore a few months ago had significantly reduced lethality. I'm not qualifed to comment, but silver linings potentially and all that.

    This is something I did wonder about, would be good if this variant actually turned out to be less harmful.


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    #473
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,323 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Aegir wrote: »
    and the assorted subject matter experts that put their name to this are all guilty of bias in the way they are reporting it?

    Again, read the BBC article. The assumption that it could be up to 70% more infectious came from Dr Erik Volz of Imperial College London. There is a link to his presentation in the article It's about 2:40 in to the overall meeting.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846

    Nothing in that article changes my opinion tbh. It regularly references the fact that nothing is certain and current infection rates could simply be due to covid being covid.


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    #474
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,323 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Boris is a narcissist who craves to be popular. He only agreed to the u- turn at the last minute because he had staked it all on being the man who would save Christmas for the British people. He made the situation far worse for himself by dithering. He has suffered a public humiliation in implementing these measures. The perception being he is the Grinch that stole Christmas for British people.

    I think you're missing the point. Boris didn't cancel Xmas. A new more contagious variant of Covid did. That's what the press are running with, that and the mayhem being caused at Dover by those pesky French.

    Boris is not being blamed and thats the pont, thats how propaganda works. It all seems to be going completely over your head though.


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    #475
    galway_lad
    Registered Users Posts: 40 ✭galway_lad


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    Boris is not being blamed

    Absolute bs.


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    #476
    quokula
    Registered Users Posts: 3,604 ✭✭✭quokula


    galway_lad wrote: »
    Absolute bs.

    If you look at the UK newspapers it's all about the mutant virus forcing them into Tier 4 and nothing about their governments woeful mishandling of everything up to now. Boris is absolutely using it as a get out of jail free card.

    Our own experts have said that there is no hard evidence that the strain is more infectious yet, but it is prudent to ban travel until evidence is gathered.

    Every expert who has discussed increased infection rate of the new virus has always heavily caveated that with the fact that more data needs to be gathered, as there is not enough evidence yet as it is hard to separate the data on the new strain from behavioural changes that were occurring at the same time (and London was a massive hotspot for Christmas shopping and parties which could well cause a 70% increase in infection rate)

    So while it may be more transmissible, there is absolutely no question that the UK government are using it as a tool to divert attention away from their own disastrous handling of the crisis, and of course it has conveniently pushed Brexit back out of the headlines at the same time.


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    #477
    galway_lad
    Registered Users Posts: 40 ✭galway_lad


    Boris is being blamed big time. I hear it every day. The Tory party are in near revolt, both the upper echelons and the local levels, the wider public aren't too further behind and the man himself is a mess. I think corona really did a number on him. I expect him to stand aside before next Summer. Odds on that were decent (for a punter!) but now best you can get is 7/4 for him to leave politics in 2021.


  • Options
    #478
    quokula
    Registered Users Posts: 3,604 ✭✭✭quokula


    galway_lad wrote: »
    Boris is being blamed big time. I hear it every day. The Tory party are in near revolt, both the upper echelons and the local levels, the wider public aren't too further behind and the man himself is a mess. I think corona really did a number on him. I expect him to stand aside before next Summer. Odds on that were decent (for a punter!) but now best you can get is 7/4 for him to leave politics in 2021.

    All of that was true well before the new strain, which has done a very convenient job of taking the heat off him, off the Government, off Brexit and onto this effective new natural disaster that is completely out of his hands.


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    #479
    PokeHerKing
    Registered Users Posts: 4,323 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    galway_lad wrote: »
    Boris is being blamed big time. I hear it every day. The Tory party are in near revolt, both the upper echelons and the local levels, the wider public aren't too further behind and the man himself is a mess. I think corona really did a number on him. I expect him to stand aside before next Summer. Odds on that were decent (for a punter!) but now best you can get is 7/4 for him to leave politics in 2021.
    galway_lad wrote: »
    Boris is being blamed big time. I hear it every day. The Tory party are in near revolt, both the upper echelons and the local levels, the wider public aren't too further behind and the man himself is a mess. I think corona really did a number on him. I expect him to stand aside before next Summer. Odds on that were decent (for a punter!) but now best you can get is 7/4 for him to leave politics in 2021.

    All irrelevant. On this subject matter he has been able to cover up his failings with a new bogey man. The press drive popular opinion. If the press aren't crucifying him for it then he's won the PR battle which is all that counts.


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    #480
    ixoy
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 17,991 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Can someone explain the government's thinking in what to keep open and what to close?
    Here's how they decided it:
    Government Picks New Restriction Measures From Raffle Drum


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    #481
    Akrasia
    Registered Users Posts: 22,409 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    PokeHerKing wrote: »
    I'm not saying anything is fake. The below is all true as far as I'm concerned:

    1. New variant discovered in England, which is becoming a dominant strain from the data they currently have.
    2. IFR in the UK, England mostly is completely out of control and they needed tighter restrictions.

    What I do not take from the above is that point 2 is because of point 1. I think Boris has decided that's exactly what has happened. Whether that's because he truly believes that or whether thats because it suits his own personal agenda we'll never know.

    Stats/data and computer modeling don't need to be falsified or exaggerated for them to be wrong or misinterpreted so there doesn't need to be any dodgy scientists or even a full blown conspiracy there just needs to be a bias in how the data is used.
    The scientists I have seen talk about this have all been reserved about the evidence and are hedging their statements

    Compare this to Johnson who lies through his teeth about easily verifiable facts
    Like when last night he said at a press conference that there were 174 trucks stuck on the M20, when in fact there were over 500

    https://twitter.com/ITVJoel/status/1341114811762028544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1341114811762028544%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.itv.com%2Fnews%2F2020-12-21%2Fpm-appears-unaware-of-the-scale-of-the-problem-at-the-channel-border-joel-hill-writes

    Johnson will always try to spin the narrative to suit him, and this is why people do not trust him when he, or his cabinet make claims about how the surge in cases is nothing to do with their awful handling of the pandemic and instead that they are victims of an unfortunate mutation

    Johnson's word is worth absolutely nothing, so it is perfectly understandable to expect to see scientific data before accepting his spin on things


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