The UK COVID variant

IAMAMORON

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Can someone explain the government's thinking in what to keep open and what to close?

There's risks with every place. I can see the risk in gyms and heavy breathing. But they can remain open.

I also see the risk with hairdressers and hairdryers but they have to close?

I just don't understand why one risky area can remain open but another risky area has to close?

It depends on how they perceive that the voters are going to perceive their decisions.

So basically shut up tbe pubs, stay at home and we will arrange the goalposts again in January.

Happy Christmas voters, stay safe please.

Akrasia

ixoy wrote: »

Here's how they decided it:
Government Picks New Restriction Measures From Raffle Drum

Despite the source of this story, this may actually have been a better way of deciding it than the cronyism that the Tories actually used to decide which regions and activities to impose the strictest lockdowns on (giving exemptions to fox hunting, putting Labour voting districts on much more severe lockdowns for longer)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/01/hancock-accused-of-favouring-tory-areas-with-covid-lockdown-changes-in-england

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/14/hunting-in-england-exempt-from-rule-of-six-covid-19-restrictions

Leading scientists saying no evidence whatsoever so far that this variant is more infectious.

Danzy

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Its a u-turn due to a NEW variant. Or in Boris mind, not a u-turn at all. Thats the point.

I definitely belive he over egged it with the intention being for internal politics only so that he had something to point too other than his own failings.

Anyone who believes Boris is a white night trying to save the world from a new contagion is naive to the point of stupid imo.

That hinges on a man who is obsessed with getting the top job in a party who loves power, going flat out to start killing his PM ship and doing damage to them that will still be a problem in the next election.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Leading scientists saying no evidence whatsoever so far that this variant is more infectious.

Can you provide a source?

Danzy

Danzy wrote: »

That hinges on a man who is obsessed with getting the top job in a party who loves power, going flat out to start killing his PM ship and doing damage to them that will still be a problem in the next election.

Errr, don’t all parties love power?

They’d be a pretty poor political party if they didn’t.

Danzy

Aegir wrote: »

Errr, don’t all parties love power?

They’d be a pretty poor political party if they didn’t.

Not all parties love power, they are Very happy in the opposition bench but that's neither here nor there.

Akrasia

Aegir wrote: »

Errr, don’t all parties love power?

They’d be a pretty poor political party if they didn’t.

I would suggest that many political parties want to be in power in order to implement specific kinds of policies that they believe will lead to a better path for the country/world

Johnson doesn't have an ideology, he wants to be in power because thats the job he has always felt he was entitled to.

The tories want power so they can exploit the rules to enrich themselves, and because they believe themselves to be superior to the unwashed public. Not all parties are like that

(You certainly cannot accuse the Tories of being conservative given the enormous sums of money they have wasted during the past 4 years)

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Leading scientists saying no evidence whatsoever so far that this variant is more infectious.

Bojo has underestimated the virus and the required response at every turn, it would have eaten him up inside having to cancel xmas for half the English population, so I find it highly doubtful that he did this on a mistaken basis tbh. He would have looked for any way possible to not have to make this move, it's even turned the Tory press on him, Brexit is round the corner!

Akrasia

Akrasia wrote: »

I would suggest that many political parties want to be in power in order to implement specific kinds of policies that they believe will lead to a better path for the country/world

you have a far higher opinion of politicians than I do.

IAMAMORON

Akrasia wrote: »

I would suggest that many political parties want to be in power in order to implement specific kinds of policies that they believe will lead to a better path for the country/world

Johnson doesn't have an ideology, he wants to be in power because thats the job he has always felt he was entitled to.

The tories want power so they can exploit the rules to enrich themselves, and because they believe themselves to be superior to the unwashed public. Not all parties are like that

(You certainly cannot accuse the Tories of being conservative given the enormous sums of money they have wasted during the past 4 years)

I find it hard to argue with anything here.

What I will say however, is that I think that Labour would be not much different? Granted the City of London might not make as much as they might under the Torys. But labour are not getting into power anytime soon either. The only thing stopping BJ from not being PM through the next UK election is a complete economic meltdown or worse, that might not even make a difference.

British Conservative gubbermints get a fairly untruthful rep in my opinion. Thatcher's gubbermint were recession prone and it was " New Labour" that oversaw the financial meltdown of 2008-2010. In fairness it was left to the Torys' to pick up the pieces there again.

I respect that it is very hip and fashionable to bash the Torys', especially on an Irish forum, but I do think that they don't get represented correctly by general opinion or consensus. Their rep for being toffs is probably true, but they have been the party to have brought the UK out of several recessions? That is not to say they aren't a horrible gang of chunts either, I just get pedantic over political perceptions and stereotypes sometimes.

Mr.Wemmick

Inquitus wrote: »

Bojo has underestimated the virus and the required response at every turn, it would have eaten him up inside having to cancel xmas for half the English population, so I find it highly doubtful that he did this on a mistaken basis tbh. He would have looked for any way possible to not have to make this move, it's even turned the Tory press on him, Brexit is round the corner!

Disagree. He waited until schools were finished then announced Tier 4. He had the unions, local authorities and parents demanding kids work from home because of the increase of infections in London and Kent and yet he ignored all. Greenwich Council were threatened with court earlier last week.

There's no getting away from the timing to this announcement: neck on neck with the brexit deadline. He sought to and will continue to hide brexit under covid which he considers as a gift that keeps on giving. The press happy to play along to keep the ignorant masses satisfied that poor boris is doing his best.

Although the press have slapped him a few times this weekend, I think they will continue to play their part in hiding the rolling Tory debacle that is brexit, unless they think a new tory PM is needed to prevent public unrest.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1341414703541723139


They need to knuckle down fast and get control of their outbreak variant or not.

ElJeffe

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1341414703541723139


They need to knuckle down fast and get control of their outbreak variant or not.

Those numbers are frankly bonkers. I see they are also letting crowds into football stadiums again. They just don't seem to care

nacho libre

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I

Boris is not being blamed and thats the pont, thats how propaganda works. It all seems to be going completely over your head though.

Well, if i disagree with you it must be going over my head:D I'm aware how propaganda works. The right wing press who have been spinning for Boris since the beginning of March will relieve him of blame, but much of the general public blame him for doing a u turn at the last minute. While it may change in the spring, if a poll were conducted now among the British public at this moment Boris would not poll too well.

galway_lad

PokeHerKing wrote: »

All irrelevant. On this subject matter he has been able to cover up his failings with a new bogey man. The press drive popular opinion. If the press aren't crucifying him for it then he's won the PR battle which is all that counts.

I stick by what I said. You can point at a newspaper but I'll listen to what's said and what people, especially those I know in the know, think. He'll be gone within a year. And I'll be £15 richer

Danzy

galway_lad wrote: »

I stick by what I said. You can point at a newspaper but I'll listen to what's said and what people, especially those I know in the know, think. He'll be gone within a year. And I'll be £15 richer

That announcement finished Boris and he knew it.

bilston

hmmm wrote: »

It's interesting reading that one of the mutations/deletions in the new UK strain affects a thing called the ORF8 protein. An ORF8 deletion variant in Singapore a few months ago had significantly reduced lethality. I'm not qualifed to comment, but silver linings potentially and all that.

Yeah...I came on here to specifically ask this question...

There are three questions being asked

1) Does it transmit more easily? It appears so, though not completely proven

2) Does it cause more severe illness? We are told it doesn't

3) Will it be resistant to vaccines? Almost certainly not, but vaccines can altered very quickly to account for this anyway

The question that hasn't been asked (so far as I can tell) is will this variant cause less severe illness in patients? The answer will be in the data...we probably won't know for a good few weeks.

rebel girl 15

Aegir wrote: »

Can you provide a source?

BBC article here https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846

Inquitus wrote: »

Bojo has underestimated the virus and the required response at every turn, it would have eaten him up inside having to cancel xmas for half the English population, so I find it highly doubtful that he did this on a mistaken basis tbh. He would have looked for any way possible to not have to make this move, it's even turned the Tory press on him, Brexit is round the corner!

Boris is a clown, doesn't listen to scientists, cares somebit about economy but most of all about making sure his friends get plenty from his pork barrel. And no it wouldn't have eaten him cancelling Christmas - he doesn't give a flying f**k about the British people or 67,000 people that have died from Covid.

One quarter of the London cases in November were from this variant, bear in mind in November the entire country was in lockdown. He then proceeded to put London and most of the SE bar Slough into tier 2 when the infection rates in London per 100,000 were higher than a number of places up north they placed into tier 3 restrictions and actually that a lockdown didn't really work. Crowds were back at matches, mask wearing non existent in loads of places from what I've heard, pubs that had food back open, indoor venues open to 1000 people so theatre etc back.

Council in Greenwich (just so happens to be led by a Labour councillor who is a teacher) ordered their schools to close for the last week of term as infection rates were so high on Sunday to close Monday. Monday evening at 4.55 the Dept of Ed threatened them with legal action if they didn't open on Wednesday (council turned around and said 4.55 was too late for them to do anything with it until Tuesday morning). However there were a number of other areas whose councils (Tory) left them do it on a case by case basis and nothing said. Many schools who wanted to do the same rolled back their plans, which means that school teams are still doing track and trace for cases right up until the 24th.

Research shows that schools opening can bring the R down by about 0.4, roughly the same as the increase this "new" variant is causing. Now that he has put this out to the world, he can't turn around and b*tch and moan about countries closing their borders, of course they are going to do it, same that was done with Italy as the first major hub of it in Europe.

Everything with him is too late to be anyway effective. The amount of high profile people there blatantly breaking rules is unreal, the number of people not following the advice is crazy and all because his advice and press conferences were shambolic, you can do this, but no not really, but sure do it, and going on about it being a slight on their civil liberties etc.

Inquitus

rebel girl 15 wrote: »

BBC article here https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55388846



Boris is a clown, doesn't listen to scientists, cares somebit about economy but most of all about making sure his friends get plenty from his pork barrel. And no it wouldn't have eaten him cancelling Christmas - he doesn't give a flying f**k about the British people or 67,000 people that have died from Covid.

One quarter of the London cases in November were from this variant, bear in mind in November the entire country was in lockdown. He then proceeded to put London and most of the SE bar Slough into tier 2 when the infection rates in London per 100,000 were higher than a number of places up north they placed into tier 3 restrictions and actually that a lockdown didn't really work. Crowds were back at matches, mask wearing non existent in loads of places from what I've heard, pubs that had food back open, indoor venues open to 1000 people so theatre etc back.

Council in Greenwich (just so happens to be led by a Labour councillor who is a teacher) ordered their schools to close for the last week of term as infection rates were so high on Sunday to close Monday. Monday evening at 4.55 the Dept of Ed threatened them with legal action if they didn't open on Wednesday (council turned around and said 4.55 was too late for them to do anything with it until Tuesday morning). However there were a number of other areas whose councils (Tory) left them do it on a case by case basis and nothing said. Many schools who wanted to do the same rolled back their plans, which means that school teams are still doing track and trace for cases right up until the 24th.

Research shows that schools opening can bring the R down by about 0.4, roughly the same as the increase this "new" variant is causing. Now that he has put this out to the world, he can't turn around and b*tch and moan about countries closing their borders, of course they are going to do it, same that was done with Italy as the first major hub of it in Europe.

Everything with him is too late to be anyway effective. The amount of high profile people there blatantly breaking rules is unreal, the number of people not following the advice is crazy and all because his advice and press conferences were shambolic, you can do this, but no not really, but sure do it, and going on about it being a slight on their civil liberties etc.

When I say eaten him up inside I mean because of the damage it would do to his political reputation right now, not because he actually gives a **** about anyone.

rebel girl 15

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

Disagree. He waited until schools were finished then announced Tier 4. He had the unions, local authorities and parents demanding kids work from home because of the increase of infections in London and Kent and yet he ignored all. Greenwich Council were threatened with court earlier last week.

There's no getting away from the timing to this announcement: neck on neck with the brexit deadline. He sought to and will continue to hide brexit under covid which he considers as a gift that keeps on giving. The press happy to play along to keep the ignorant masses satisfied that poor boris is doing his best.

Although the press have slapped him a few times this weekend, I think they will continue to play their part in hiding the rolling Tory debacle that is brexit, unless they think a new tory PM is needed to prevent public unrest.

100% this - London went into tier 3 on Wednesday while he mocked Kier Starmer in parliament for wanting to cancel Christmas, then goes ahead and imposes severe restrictions on Saturday including moving it into tier 4 because of this mutant variation, just after parliament finishes for Christmas - convenient. Up north they have been in tier 4 for months but unlike Ireland, there is no defined definition of what a tier 1-3 area is numbers wise in terms of infections rates and what is the target to be able to come out of it.

Press are weak - the whole department is leakier than the Titanic, so many leaks coming out as his PR guys test run some ideas (generally in the Telegraph so behind a paywall). Need someone like CNN in America that say it like it is and don't pander to him

IAMAMORON

nacho libre wrote: »

Well, if i disagree with you it must be going over my head:D I'm aware how propaganda works. The right wing press who have been spinning for Boris since the beginning of March will relieve him of blame, but much of the general public blame him for doing a u turn at the last minute. While it may change in the spring, if a poll were conducted now among the British public at this moment Boris would not poll too well.

Danzy wrote: »

That announcement finished Boris and he knew it.

I don't want to spoil your Christmas or anything, but unless there is a movement from within the conservative party nothing of the sort is going to happen.

Who within the the Conservative party is going to be able to launch a challenge to his leadership?

Bear in mind he is completely surrounded by supporters who he actually placed in positions of power. He already sacked any potential opponents at his last reshuffle.

So I will reiterate the question. Who is going to challenge him at this point?

gally74

hmmm wrote: »

It's interesting reading that one of the mutations/deletions in the new UK strain affects a thing called the ORF8 protein. An ORF8 deletion variant in Singapore a few months ago had significantly reduced lethality. I'm not qualifed to comment, but silver linings potentially and all that.

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)31757-8/fulltext

rebel girl 15

Inquitus wrote: »

When I say eaten him up inside I mean because of the damage it would do to his political reputation right now, not because he actually gives a **** about anyone.

He's like teflon - at this stage he should be able to see the writing on the wall. There was a poll by YouGov in the last day or so that had 33% of people thinking that the UK government in handling the pandemic very or somewhat well.

The new variant is spreading more rapidly because people in the UK aren't social distancing, aren't wearing masks and schools are only enforcing masks in communal areas and not actually in classrooms where schools now have to close doors and windows because it is so cold.

rebel girl 15

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't want to spoil your Christmas or anything, but unless there is a movement from within the conservative party nothing of the sort is going to happen.

Who within the the Conservative party is going to be able to launch a challenge to his leadership?

Bear in mind he is completely surrounded by supporters who he actually placed in positions of power. He already sacked any potential opponents at his last reshuffle.

So I will reiterate the question. Who is going to challenge him at this point?

There were talks going around of Boris leaving in Jan after his mess, think it was Dominic Cummings father in law (Cummings being the one you know the one who drove 280 miles to test his eyesight in the middle of lockdown) that started that one - candidates include Gove **shudder**, Hancock and golden boy Sunak were being touted.

SlowBlowin

gally74 wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)31757-8/fulltext

The biggest surprise for me in that article is that a good percentage of those tested had both the wild variant AND the new strain.

rebel girl 15

PokeHerKing wrote: »

They love a bit of self-harming, as we've seen with Brexit...

You think its more likely that Bojo just decided to be honest in the interest of the public?? Ballix, they opened up too soon. He was told things were getting completely out of hand and he'd need to lockdown again. He was also told we're seeing a new variant and he thought bingo bango, thats it!

He miscalculated the fact that while using the new variant as his scapegoat to the British public that it may also have ramifications outside his borders. But nothing new in Bojo/Tories miscalculating international responses.

This - 100%. I feel sorry for his scientific advisors, they have been consistently been ignored throughout this pandemic

nacho libre wrote: »

I think Boris was shown grim stats that forced his hand into a humiliating u- turn. As far back as September he stated he would save Christmas. His narcissism means he is unable to learn from previous mistakes whereby he made grand promises... His supporters on this forum won't admit it, but the man is in over his head.
The idea that this is all a grand conspiracy to punish the UK for Brexit is silly. It's not only the UK that suffers from a suspension of travel.

Don't worry, I've lost count of the number of U-turns Boris has had to pull in the last nine month. This the man that promised normality by Christmas, who promised an over ready Brexit deal - CNN have four of them here but there are a few more https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/20/europe/boris-johnson-u-turns/index.html Sky have more but it is from earlier in the year https://news.sky.com/story/u-turn-if-you-want-to-11-times-boris-johnson-reversed-government-policy-12056941

rebel girl 15

Anyone who travelled from the UK have now been sent a message advising them to self isolate as opposed to restricting movements

IAMAMORON

rebel girl 15 wrote: »

There were talks going around of Boris leaving in Jan after his mess, think it was Dominic Cummings father in law (Cummings being the one you know the one who drove 280 miles to test his eyesight in the middle of lockdown) that started that one - candidates include Gove **shudder**, Hancock and golden boy Sunak were being touted.

Between who ?

rebel girl 15

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Between who ?

This was back in October/November - rumours more so, but were definitely being spoken about as I definitely recall Gove :mad: being touted as a front runner to replace him