The UK COVID variant

caveat emptor

Seems the spike itself is able to mutate quickly under antibody pressure.
Initially people said coronavirus' don't evolve as quickly as flu. This is correct on aggregate but the spikes of them do.
Lot's of retroactive study done to see how they've evolved / evaded people's antibodies. It's not good news but it's not totally bad either. The thread below is probably the most telling in how it's going to go with this particular virus in the long term. Hopefully it does just involve into another common cold variant. Might be a few years though.

https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1339939727789576200?s=20

speckle

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah I was wondering myself about that as to why they haven't shared that. Just seemed a bit odd.

The viral load in the different areas is also interesting.

Still not able to come to a decent summary either way at the moment unfortunately.

I wondered if it had to do with the first patient in september were they a person from an educational or prison or refugee center or hospital that had a follow on cluster of cases? Are all initial cases on a particular age group? The must have the data..privacy concerns? Waiting for it to hit a certain kevel of cases to see if age data replicated versus other strains? Alot of waiting this year

Thanks for previous link... any luck getting on to the coronavirus frazer group data file link on the page...cant seem to my mobile?

galway_lad

rebel girl 15 wrote: »

The new variant is spreading more rapidly because people in the UK aren't social distancing, aren't wearing masks

What a load of ****e.

Maybe, just maybe it's because the UK is a world leader in genetic testing on this front?

I mean that was partially the reason the EMA was here before it fled, leaving its staff behind. Still, imagine to be a country still waiting for a vaccine..

I guess all the scientists are in on a conspiracy too? What do you think of 5g? LOL

But it was spotted here because of the strength of the UK's surveillance system, scientists have said.

The Covid-19 Genomics Consortium (Cog-UK) has tracked the genetic history of more than 150,000 samples of Sars-Cov-2 virus.

That equates to about half the world's genetic sequencing of coronavirus.

Prof Sharon Peacock, head of Cog-UK, said the UK's high level of genomic surveillance meant "if you're going to find something anywhere, you're going to find it probably here first".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55413666

caveat emptor

I'm not surprised but disheartened a bit on this. (I read the research months ago on other corona virus 'reinfections' and 'immunity' and posted this was likely)
Chances are vaccines will work for similar strains but they won't necessarily work a number of years later much like the flu.
In the mean time we have to hope that a milder strain will emerge and dominate and it's easy to update the vaccine to stay ahead and that it doesn't get more dangerous. How long that will take or if it'll happen is anybody's guess.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.17.423313v1.full.pdf

But there is another mechanism by which viruses can re-infect even in the face of long-lived and effective antibodies: antigenic evolution. For example, infection with influenza virus elicits antibodies that generally protect humans against that same viral strain for at least several decades (Couch and Kasel, 1983; Yu et al., 2008). Unfortunately, influenza virus undergoes rapid antigenic evolution to escape these antibodies (Bedford et al., 2014), meaning that although immunity to the original viral strain lasts for decades, humans are susceptible to infection by its descendants within about 5 years (Couch and Kasel, 1983; Ranjeva et al., 2019). This continual antigenic evolution is the reason that the influenza vaccine is periodically updated.

Strangely, the possibility of antigenic evolution by coronaviruses has received only modest attention, perhaps because coronaviruses have lower mutation rates than other RNA viruses (Denison et al., 2011; Sanjuán et al., 2010). However, mutation rate is just one factor that shapes antigenic evolution; influenza and measles virus both have high mutation rates, but only the former undergoes rapid antigenic evolution. Furthermore, the assumption of minimal coronavirus antigenic evolution is not supported by the limited evidence to date. In the 1980s, human-challenge studies found that individuals infected with one strain of 229E were resistant to re-infection with that same strain, but partially susceptible to a different strain (Reed, 1984). Additional experimental studies suggest that sera or antibodies can differentially recognize spike proteins from different 229E strains (Shirato et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2017). From a computational perspective, several studies have reported that the spikes of 229E and OC43 evolve under positive selection (Chibo and Birch, 2006; Kistler and Bedford, 2020; Ren et al., 2015), which is often a signature of antigenic evolution.

hmmm

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'm not surprised but disheartened a bit on this. (I read the research months ago on other corona virus 'reinfections' and 'immunity' and posted this was likely)
Chances are vaccines will work for similar strains but they won't necessarily work a number of years later much like the flu.

Biontech (Pfizer) today said it would take them only 6 weeks to make a new vaccine if required. The question then is whether it would need a big new phase 3 trial, but we don't do that with the Flu vaccine and there is precedent.

So if it changes every few years it sounds like no big deal, tweak the vaccine and make it available.

caveat emptor

hmmm wrote: »

Biontech (Pfizer) today said it would take them only 6 weeks to make a new vaccine if required. The question then is whether it would need a big new phase 3 trial, but we don't do that with the Flu vaccine and there is precedent.

So if it changes every few years it sounds like no big deal, tweak the vaccine and make it available.

That is good. Problem with current flu vaccine is that we literally guess which will become dominant. We don't have an amazingly efficacious vaccine for the flu anyway so the fact these vaccines are miles better >90% is very hopeful.

Inquitus

caveat emptor wrote: »

That is good. Problem with current flu vaccine is that we literally guess which will become dominant. We don't have an amazingly efficacious vaccine for the flu anyway so the fact these vaccines are miles better >90% is very hopeful.

The Flu mutates weekly or more, Covid-19 monthly or longer, big difference.

caveat emptor

Inquitus wrote: »

The Flu mutates weekly or more, Covid-19 monthly or longer, big difference.

Do you mean that's why it doesn't work quite so well? Might be. As we've seen with flu throughout history you don't need lot's of strains you just need one bad one. A fraction of the research for covid has gone into a flu vaccine. We could have a much better one for that too soon.

With covid it hasn't had really had antibody selection pressure yet. It's starting to now and looks like it's well able to adapt. Also no reduction in severity of this strain (9 deaths out of initial 1000 samples off top of my head). The frequency and mechanism of the antibody evasion are key though. It'll be interesting to see in years to come.

PommieBast

caveat emptor wrote: »

Thanks for sharing. Wonder why they won't release the info about the age? They clearly have it. I suppose they don't want to cause undue panic. They are getting the testing set up for school returns. I'd imagine the absentee rate would be much higher in Jan if people didn't have confidence that the kids still had low propensity to catch and spread.

If it is true that the mutation is one that makes it much more infectious for children, as some sources have suggested/hinted, it basically means schools are as dangerous as shops/pubs/etc and will have to close. This would then have all sorts of knock-on effects, including calling into question whether government advice on schools was duff in the first place.

gally74

hmmm wrote: »

Biontech (Pfizer) today said it would take them only 6 weeks to make a new vaccine if required. The question then is whether it would need a big new phase 3 trial, but we don't do that with the Flu vaccine and there is precedent.

So if it changes every few years it sounds like no big deal, tweak the vaccine and make it available.

that's fair, in reality we are going to end up in the great Barrington or as Martin feeley, situation, as economy's can't go on printing money for people to not work!

There will be an effect from all this I feel rampant infkation and nationalism rising a GF ain, which is never good,

FionnK86

gally74 wrote: »

that's fair, in reality we are going to end up in the great Barrington or as Martin feeley, situation, as economy's can't go on printing money for people to not work!

There will be an effect from all this I feel rampant infkation and nationalism rising a GF ain, which is never good,

I speculate things will go other way.

People are more concerned with stable governance now and not populism. We've already seen this with rejection of Trump and likely failure of Johnson at next election. Though these two are amongst first to bring vaccine to their countries, their mishandling has caused many deaths.

International debt has risen, but the potential silver lining is the education on how strains develop, how they can be controlled and plenty of other things. We did live In a more connected world , but if this happened in say 2030, it could have been much worse.

Danzy

gally74 wrote: »

that's fair, in reality we are going to end up in the great Barrington or as Martin feeley, situation, as economy's can't go on printing money for people to not work!

There will be an effect from all this I feel rampant infkation and nationalism rising a GF ain, which is never good,

Deflation is the great economic threat at the moment.

Nationalism is a good thing, it's the parent of solidarity, of social provision, the only thing that kills empires.

The Eurozone would probably be in a deflation spiral now without the vast creation of stimulus by the ECB.

nacho libre

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I don't want to spoil your Christmas or anything, but unless there is a movement from within the conservative party nothing of the sort is going to happen.

Who within the the Conservative party is going to be able to launch a challenge to his leadership?

Bear in mind he is completely surrounded by supporters who he actually placed in positions of power. He already sacked any potential opponents at his last reshuffle.

So I will reiterate the question. Who is going to challenge him at this point?

I never suggested he would be unseated, what i said was Boris is deeply unpopular after this latest fiasco.
The latest poll results suggests this. Labour are now 4 points ahead of the Conservatives if a general election were held today.
It may well be that in six months a poll will probably show something a lot different - indeed, when mass vaccination has been completed in the UK it would not surprise me at all if the Tories are ahead again.

IAMAMORON

nacho libre wrote: »

I never suggested he would be unseated, what i said was Boris is deeply unpopular after this latest fiasco.
The latest poll results suggests this. Labour are now 4 points ahead of the Conservatives if a general election were held today.
It may well be that in six months a poll will probably show something a lot different - indeed, when mass vaccination has been completed in the UK it would not surprise me at all if the Tories are ahead again.

Polls are garbage, there is no constitutional reason for an election in the UK for another 3-4 years. That is a long time away.

He is going nowhere unless something very scandalous arises out of his personal life - and he has managed to float so far here. Despite everyones' raised eyebrows.

igCorcaigh

UK variant detected in Hong Kong.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/Khalsa_Aid/status/1341393418291998723

Hope not too spicy or the truckers may face a different type of crisis.

PokeHerKing

You would have to feel very sorry for these drivers. Awful situation anytime of the year but a lot/all of them will most likely miss Xmas at this stage.

Seems like a complete $hit show (no pun intended) but instead of testing the drivers as they're cued at the port theyre testing people at the back of the queue and now there's a massive standoff. Madness.

WoollyRedHat

'Prof Horby says there’s not been “any egging up” of the new variant’s transmissibility in response to speculation that the government did so to justify its last-minute changing of the Christmas rules.

The analysis suggests the virus is behaving biologically differently, he says.'

From The Guardian, as taken from today's NERVtag committee. Also reports of significant increase of cases in U15s.

Charles Babbage

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Is anyone who's been on the more cautious side worried about any packages you ordered from the UK before this news happened?

I'm due 3 packages over the few days to 2 weeks

Just give them an extra wipe down?

Packages do not seem a major issue with this virus. Wash your hands after you open it.

Also packages are taking so long now that the only person you need worry about is the actual courier delivering it.

WoollyRedHat

Press conference in Downing Street at 3PM, announcement on change in tiers.

Kermit.de.frog

2 cases of another new strain from South Africa detected in the UK

PokeHerKing

The UK trying to throw the saffers under the bus now )

WoollyRedHat

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

2 cases of another new strain from South Africa detected in the UK

Just heard that, travel to SA banned now.

Kermit.de.frog

This virus is yet more transmissible and appears to have mutated further than the new virus

Matt Hancock at his press conference

_Whimsical_

Is there any word of how exactly these strains are more transmissible? Do they last longer on surfaces, do they live on food? Or is it merely that they have a mechanism to easier invade the body after being caught through airborne transmission?

WoollyRedHat

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Is there any word of how exactly these strains are more transmissible? Do they last longer on surfaces, do they live on food? Or is it merely that they have a mechanism to easier invade the body after being caught through airborne transmission?

Inconclusive, but it could be last thing you mentioned or it could be higher viral load. They're still looking into it.

ReturnOfThe

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Is there any word of how exactly these strains are more transmissible? Do they last longer on surfaces, do they live on food? Or is it merely that they have a mechanism to easier invade the body after being caught through airborne transmission?

Replicates quicker plus or longer infection time

nacho libre

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Polls are garbage, there is no constitutional reason for an election in the UK for another 3-4 years. That is a long time away.

He is going nowhere unless something very scandalous arises out of his personal life - and he has managed to float so far here. Despite everyones' raised eyebrows.

Well Tories supporters would tend to play them down anyway, but ultimately they don't mean much as you say in terms of leading to a change government. What it does underscore though is how unpopular this Government have become.

dhaughton99

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Is there any word of how exactly these strains are more transmissible? Do they last longer on surfaces, do they live on food? Or is it merely that they have a mechanism to easier invade the body after being caught through airborne transmission?

Chemtrails

IAMAMORON

_Whimsical_ wrote: »

Is there any word of how exactly these strains are more transmissible? Do they last longer on surfaces, do they live on food? Or is it merely that they have a mechanism to easier invade the body after being caught through airborne transmission?

You will have to ask Boris Johnson in fairness... or Michael Gove/Pirri Patel.

It's epicenter is somewhere around their Precuneus.

Happy Christmas and spare a thought for the poor truck drivers.