The UK COVID variant

IAMAMORON

nacho libre wrote: »

Well Tories supporters would tend to play them down anyway, but ultimately they don't mean much as you say in terms of leading to a change government. What it does underscore though is how unpopular this Government have become.

They don't care, they only care how popular they will be at the next election.

All politicians are sociopaths, once you accept it the irony will no longer be lost on you.

Anyway the Labour leader has the charisma of barrel of rotten kippers. He is as effective as a soft brush on a burnt pot. Labour are going to have to dig deeper to eek out the charisma, they are sorely lacking.

The British government is always unpopular.

WoollyRedHat

I watched a Q & A that was broadcast on WHO Twitter and they had three experts who were calm and measured on their analysis of the new variants, said that data has already been shared with scientists around the globe, and also with the vaccination pharmaceutical makers.

They are currently working on obtaining live virus variants and using this, they will then carry out experiments in a lab setting over the next few weeks to ascertain whether the new variants are indeed more transmissible, whether they will work with vaccines or if small tweaks may be necessary to target two new strains and will also be able to confirm whether it causes same incidence of disease or not to other circulating strains. There was a suggestion that it could even turn out to be less virulent, which would be cause for optimism. Key take home points were to trust the science, be patient, don't believe everything you read in the media and to continue following guidelines and be cautious. Was a very informative broadcast, UK and SA scientists are closely collaborating together on this, it will just take time, more research is on the way.

SortingYouOut

How are they determining that these new strains are more transmissible during a time of year when the movement of people globally and in country sky rocket? Cases were always going to sky rocket and of course the virus is now more transmissible as we're providing the perfect conditions for it to transmit.

The whole talk of variants being more transmissible is premature surely but a great way to get people listening and obiding by restrictions.

Seems all very convenient that this virus waited until just before Christmas to show a mutation that actually impacts transmission. I know it's always mutating but right before Christmas it does it in a way that causes concern.. hmmm

SortingYouOut

SortingYouOut wrote: »

How are they determining that these new strains are more transmissible during a time of year when the movement of people globally and in country sky rocket? Cases were always going to sky rocket and of course the virus is now more transmissible as we're providing the perfect conditions for it to transmit.

The whole talk of variants being more transmissible is premature surely but a great way to get people listening and obiding by restrictions.

Seems all very convenient that this virus waited until just before Christmas to show a mutation that actually impacts transmission. I know it's always mutating but right before Christmas it does it in a way that causes concern.. hmmm

It'

They are not determining it. They are assuming it, based on the R number, and spinning one possible outcome as having been been definitively determined, in order to cover up their own incompetence

SortingYouOut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

They are not determining it. They are assuming it, based on the R number, and spinning one possible outcome as having been been definitively determined, in order to cover up their own incompetence

There's people at their wit's end scared over this mutant coming to get them. Gone are the days of transparency.

hmmm

SortingYouOut wrote: »

There's people at their wit's end scared over this mutant coming to get them. Gone are the days of transparency.

There's lots of transparency and lots of public scientific papers available if you want to read them. UK MPs also had a public meeting earlier today which was streamed online where they asked questions of the scientists working on these new strains.

What there isn't is clarity or answers to all the questions, and that's because the variant is new and it will take time to understand it.

The papers explain why they think it has greater transmissibility. In short, this strain has outperformed all other strains in the areas where it is spreading. There's lots of back and forth arguing on this with some scientists arguing this is down to local factors e.g. a few superspreaders, but because enough scientists are saying that the difference is more than can be explained by chance means it needs to be taken seriously until we know more.

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

There's lots of transparency and lots of public scientific papers available if you want to read them. UK MPs also had a public meeting earlier today which was streamed online where they asked questions of the scientists working on these new strains.

What there isn't is clarity or answers to all the questions, and that's because the variant is new and it will take time to understand it.

The papers explain why they think it has greater transmissibility. In short, this strain has outperformed all other strains in the areas where it is spreading. There's lots of back and forth arguing on this with some scientists arguing this is down to local factors e.g. a few superspreaders, but because enough scientists are saying that the difference is more than can be explained by chance means it needs to be taken seriously until we know more.

Don’t disagree with you. But the 70% was presented as fact a few days ago. Which, at best, was disingenuous. At worst, was intentioned to mislead and scare

SortingYouOut

hmmm wrote: »

There's lots of transparency and lots of public scientific papers available if you want to read them. UK MPs also had a public meeting earlier today which was streamed online where they asked questions of the scientists working on these new strains.

What there isn't is clarity or answers to all the questions, and that's because the variant is new and it will take time to understand it.

The papers explain why they think it has greater transmissibility. In short, this strain has outperformed all other strains in the areas where it is spreading. There's lots of back and forth arguing on this with some scientists arguing this is down to local factors e.g. a few superspreaders, but because enough scientists are saying that the difference is more than can be explained by chance means it needs to be taken seriously until we know more.

I get that it's out performing but some in the field put this down to mere coincidence as well. Hard to know now but it's been sold as fact on the news at times when those who would know barely know themselves.

It's just great timing for this to happen.

Danzy

SortingYouOut wrote: »

How are they determining that these new strains are more transmissible during a time of year when the movement of people globally and in country sky rocket? Cases were always going to sky rocket and of course the virus is now more transmissible as we're providing the perfect conditions for it to transmit.

The whole talk of variants being more transmissible is premature surely but a great way to get people listening and obiding by restrictions.

Seems all very convenient that this virus waited until just before Christmas to show a mutation that actually impacts transmission. I know it's always mutating but right before Christmas it does it in a way that causes concern.. hmmm

It's based on viral load of infection in this variant and also changes in the spike that means it can stick better to the throat or nasal passage.

That rather than spread of contacts is their concern.

SortingYouOut

Danzy wrote: »

It's based on viral load of infection in this variant and also changes in the spike that means it can stick better to the throat or nasal passage.

That rather than spread of contacts is their concern.

Have they been able to determine that this is definitely the case? Have they been measuring the viral load increase and comparing to those who caught previous variations of the virus? All I'm saying is it's far too early to determine something like that with such little data available.

Danzy

SortingYouOut wrote: »

Have they been able to determine that this is definitely the case? Have they been measuring the viral load increase and comparing to those who caught previous variations of the virus? All I'm saying is it's far too early to determine something like that with such little data available.

They have determined that already, there is much to learn no doubt but they already know quite a bit about that specific variant.

It's much more transmissive but also given more opportunity to transmit as well.

SortingYouOut

Danzy wrote: »

They have determined that already, there is much to learn no doubt but they already know quite a bit about that specific variant.

They've been able to determine for sure that this variant has a higher viral load?

I'm pretty sure they're suspecting that to be the case but it's far too early for them to know that for sure. No study could have determined that for sure yet.

Danzy

SortingYouOut wrote: »

They've been able to determine for sure that this variant has a higher viral load?

Yes, no doubt there.

SortingYouOut

Danzy wrote: »

Yes, no doubt there.

Do you've a link to something that mentions a study that has proven this beyond doubt this early? It was only yesterday our own experts were saying it's too early to know anything for sure on this and that they were acting with caution.

nacho libre

IAMAMORON wrote: »

They don't care, they only care how popular they will be at the next election.

All politicians are sociopaths, once you accept it the irony will no longer be lost on you.



The British government is always unpopular.

I disagree that all politicians are sociopaths. That is just a lazy cliche. Politicans do care outside of an election if that unpopularity could lead to a heave against them. It's unlikely to happen in the case of Boris, but it's an incorrect assertion to say they only care at election time. The British Government always being unpopular with their electorate is hogwash too.

ShineOn7

The Kent variant is now Ireland's dominant one

Is it true it's more lethal though?

Or is the evidence so far that's it's much, much more contagious, but no more lethal?

doublejobbing 2

At what stage is a journalist going to point out in interview to MM or LV that

a- if we had closed our borders to returning Irish ex pats in early December we would have more than 95& less daily cases

b- failure to take this easy measure has cost individuals thousands in lost earnings, has been the final nail in the coffin of countless businesses that would have just about survived, and has plunged us into billions upon billions more of unnecessary national debt

My first question to any canvasser in the next election year will be regarding whether their party will look into route to seeking a criminal or, better yet civil*, prosecution of those involved in failure to act on the information they had to hand.

*civil because they should have their assets seized rather than doing 15 months in whatever hotel Liam Lawlor was isolated in.

DaSilva

ShineOn7 wrote: »

The Kent variant is now Ireland's dominant one

Is it true it's more lethal though?

Or is the evidence so far that's it's much, much more contagious, but no more lethal?

From: https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/768458300892

"Initial assessment by PHE of disease severity through a matched case-control study reported no significant difference in the risk of hospitalisation or death in people infected with confirmed B.1.1.7 infection versus infection with other variants."

"Several new analyses are however consistent in reporting increased disease severity in people infected with VOC B.1.1.7 compared to people infected with non-VOC virus variants."


So I guess the official answer is maybe.

ShineOn7

Martin told the Dáil earlier that the Kent variant that's here is seeing a much higher rate of hospitalizations

I can't find a web link to same yet, it was mentioned on Today FM's news about 15 mins ago