Christmas Racing: Leopardstown, Kempton, Chepstow

supremenovice

We won't be there in person but some great racing on Christmas week to enjoy on the tele. There's another thread for the King George where I said Vindication is my selection at a huge 40/1, considering a lot of horses shorter in the betting have no intention of turning up.
But the one I'm teeing up as my bet of the week is Tiger Tap Tap on the 27th at Leopardstown. Willie Mullins said to watch out for him in a handicap hurdle at Christmas time and I see he is entered for one on the 27th. I know a lot of folk think he talks through his hole but I'm going to take his word on this.
I've no opinion on the Welsh National yet, usually an impossible task for me anyway. Bring it on though

RivetingRoger

Savilles the race of the year so far.
Way better than the KG
Thinking a Minella Indo Percy reverse Forecast

Plasandrunt

Cyrname/Delta Work double

IAMAMORON

Just to clarify...

I think that Willie Mullins does talk through his hole. I don't want to hear any more argument on this going forward.

Good man William, happy Laura Pearson to ye.

The Mig

https://twitter.com/racingpost/status/1341376383797354497?s=21

Gavin "shels"

How many horses does that rule out? I assume very few?

The Mig

Monalee, Put the Kettle on against Altior. Then in Chepstow Gordon had a couple entered. Duffle coat was one. Hogan had Moyhenna in the welsh national

piplip87

Wetherby 2.05 Stephen's day Yorkhill is entered in a grade 3 surely worth a few quid after the last day

RivetingRoger

piplip87 wrote: »

Wetherby 2.05 Stephen's day Yorkhill is entered in a grade 3 surely worth a few quid after the last day

Those 9's wont last long either

IAMAMORON

piplip87 wrote: »

Wetherby 2.05 Stephen's day Yorkhill is entered in a grade 3 surely worth a few quid after the last day

Just make sure you get NRNB as Nicola Sturgeon banned travel from Scotland to England. As far as I know Sandy Thompson's yard is in Scotland, albeit he is on the border, but they sacked a minister up there before for taking the piss.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Just make sure you get NRNB as Nicola Sturgeon banned travel from Scotland to England. As far as I know Sandy Thompson's yard is in Scotland, albeit he is on the border, but they sacked a minister up there before for taking the piss.

That's a really good point!!
Jesus, did I read before that Tizzards stable is actually across the border in Wales?????
Or was that someone else....Christ, I never thought of any of that !!

Brian Hughes daily trips to hoover up wins in Ayr and Musselburgh must be under threat now are they??

IAMAMORON

RivetingRoger wrote: »

That's a really good point!!
Jesus, did I read before that Tizzards stable is actually across the border in Wales?????
Or was that someone else....Christ, I never thought of any of that !!

Brian Hughes daily trips to hoover up wins in Ayr and Musselburgh must be under threat now are they??

The Welsh border counties will toe the line with England, they have to do what they are told.

But Sturgeon is all about Scottish independence so every chance she gets to show up Westminster she will use it. Hence this travel ban.

I can't answer for Brian Hughes..... he is going to go where he gets the best rides. We won't know anyway until Sunday, as the UK lockdown doesn't kick in until after racing is finished on St Stephens day.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

The Welsh border counties will toe the line with England, they have to do what they are told.

But Sturgeon is all about Scottish independence so every chance she gets to show up Westminster she will use it. Hence this travel ban.

I can't answer for Brian Hughes..... he is going to go where he gets the best rides. We won't know anyway until Sunday, as the UK lockdown doesn't kick in until after racing is finished on St Stephens day.

Checked it out. Scottish horses free to travel

famagusta

I didn't back monalee but I presume they will refund??

supremenovice

Saint Calvados at 25/1 is an interesting outsider in the King George.
Beaten 1/2 length by Min in the Ryanair is top class form and it could be they've been running him over the wrong trip up until then. Not good enough to beat Clan des Obeaux but finish 3rd at 5/1? Well since Cyrname and Lostintranslation bombed in the race last year and at 7yo, it could be he has more to offer.

RivetingRoger

famagusta wrote: »

I didn't back monalee but I presume they will refund??

Nope. As per Ante Post small print

famagusta

RivetingRoger wrote:

Nope. As per Ante Post small print

Just seen skybet and Victor chandler have voided bets, fair play, if only they'd take a betðŸ˜

piplip87

famagusta wrote: »

I didn't back monalee but I presume they will refund??

Bet Victor gave me a refund. Dont know about the rest.

Pogue eile

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Cyrname/Delta Work double

Only catching up with this thread/forum now and I'm not sure if it is good or bad news for you but I have done the exact same bet

My best bet over the Christmas period is Secret Reprieve in the Welsh National, got 10s two weeks ago, best price 7/2 now but still juice in that, horse is officially 8lbs well in and I think he is value for a few more.

I'm also told that Ha D'or is very highly thought of by those in the know at Closutton, is currently available at 50s for the Triumph and is expected to run in Leopardstown.

Dr. Bre

supremenovice wrote: »

Saint Calvados at 25/1 is an interesting outsider in the King George.
Beaten 1/2 length by Min in the Ryanair is top class form and it could be they've been running him over the wrong trip up until then. Not good enough to beat Clan des Obeaux but finish 3rd at 5/1? Well since Cyrname and Lostintranslation bombed in the race last year and at 7yo, it could be he has more to offer.

I will have a small ew on Saint

Gavin "shels"

Looks like there may be a serious downpour on Saturday evening - could be looking for the bog warriors from Sunday!

IAMAMORON

Gavin shels wrote: »

Looks like there may be a serious downpour on Saturday evening - could be looking for the bog warriors from Sunday!

Serious downpour over Leopardstown all this morning and yesterday evening. It will be soft or heavy going for sure. What happens now if it gets cooler is that the ground can't dry out and it turns very boggy and sticky.

The thing with Leopardstown is that you get two types of ground, the home straight drains really well as it is on a sideways hill. The back straight gets really boggy though and that is where you want one that gets through it nicely as you need to be up with the pace for the home stretch when the ground improves. Frontrunners with nice stamina will do well.

I drove from the Square over to Carrickmines earlier and the M50 was like a swimming pool, pouring down so it is.

Dr. Bre

The Welsh will be some staying test

Gavin "shels"

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I drove from the Square over to Carrickmines earlier and the M50 was like a swimming pool, pouring down so it is.

The Square 2 days before Christmas? Silly man! :pac:

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Serious downpour over Leopardstown all this morning and yesterday evening. It will be soft or heavy going for sure. What happens now if it gets cooler is that the ground can't dry out and it turns very boggy and sticky.

The thing with Leopardstown is that you get two types of ground, the home straight drains really well as it is on a sideways hill. The back straight gets really boggy though and that is where you want one that gets through it nicely as you need to be up with the pace for the home stretch when the ground improves. Frontrunners with nice stamina will do well.

I drove from the Square over to Carrickmines earlier and the M50 was like a swimming pool, pouring down so it is.

Overheard in Leopardstown on Sunday.....
"That Tony Martin yoke is travelling very well isn't it.....never heard of it before, looks a lot like Native River doesn't it..........:cool:

IAMAMORON

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Overheard in Leopardstown on Sunday.....
"That Tony Martin yoke is travelling very well isn't it.....never heard of it before, looks a lot like Native River doesn't it..........:cool:

I actually am not sure I get it Rog.

I am on the Hollow Ginge myself.

Tell us, is JohnJo allowed send his over to race in the PP on Sunday?

PM me nudes

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Tell us, is JohnJo allowed send his over to race in the PP on Sunday?

Yes, horse got to Ireland before restrictions were announced

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

I'm also told that Ha D'or is very highly thought of by those in the know at Closutton, is currently available at 50s for the Triumph and is expected to run in Leopardstown.

Any reason why Rachael Blackmore is riding it?

IAMAMORON

Brain Hughes is gone to Kempton to ride Waiting Patiently. Looks like his only ride on boxing day.

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Any reason why Rachael Blackmore is riding it?

Paul Townend is going to Limerick to ride Asterion Forlonge and its the only race on the card that De Bromhead doesn't have a runner in.

del roy

Paul Kealy has a 25-1 fancy in the King George



Takingrisks
2.05 Wetherby, Saturday
16-1 generally

Saint Calvados
3.00 Kempton, Saturday
25-1 generally

Lord Du Mesnil
2.50 Chepstow, Sunday
16-1 each-way generally

I’m well aware that weather can be localised, but I really had to do a double-take when I saw on the BHA website on Monday that the going at Kempton was just good to soft, good in places.

I live only ten miles from the track and there are pavement slabs that are softer than that right now!

The latest GoingStick reading backs up the description, but there’s a huge amount of rain forecast by some on Wednesday night into Thursday morning and I would have thought the prediction of good to soft, soft in places was a tad ambitious.

I’m going to work on the basis of soft ground, although that doesn’t necessarily mean I’ll be backing either of the front two in the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.

The most likely outcome is obviously Clan Des Obeaux beating Cyrname into second yet again, and I think that’s probably what will happen, but the make-up of the rest of the field makes me want to have a small each-way play and hope things don’t quite go to script.

There are four other horses priced shorter than 20-1 and yet not one of them interests me at the prices.

You can certainly understand Nicky Henderson deciding to supplement Santini when you look at those behind the front two in the market, and a defeat to Lake View Lad on his return at Aintree was not as bad as some thought – and was miles better than Lostintranslation’s return.

He’s the one most likely to serve it up to the front two, but there are question marks about a right-handed track for him and you certainly wouldn’t want to take much shorter than he is.

Lostintranslation though, is surely much the worse value of the two as he didn’t seem to like the track last year and ran appallingly on his return at Haydock.

I’ve been a longtime fan of the horse, but around here he is the one you can envisage blowing right out again and he’s one I’ve got down to lay in all the place markets.

Then you’ve got Reel Steel, but he fails to convince that his form at 3m on soft ground is good enough.

Frodon doesn’t stay 3m when the ground is soft and Kempton isn’t his course, either, while Waiting Patiently has run only once in 20 months.

Therefore I reckon the only conceivable each-way bet for those looking away from the obvious is Saint Calvados.

Stamina is the very obvious doubt with him and when I started digging into this race I didn’t think for a minute I’d end up putting up a horse who was virtually unrestrainable in the 2018 Arkle, losing any chance by going off way too fast.

However, what we saw last year from Saint Calvados, who has an impeccable first-time-out record of 111, was a horse who had really grown up and was taking his form to a new level with every start.

Having been a tearaway front-runner, he suddenly seemed perfectly happy to be dropped in, and if he hadn’t belted the last in the Ryanair, he may well have beaten Min rather than going down by a neck.

The fact he was able to pick himself up and get going again tells you he got the 2m4½ very well, and if you didn’t have the evidence of his runs as a very young horse, you would say the obvious next step would be to try 3m.

There are plenty shorter than him that you wouldn’t fancy getting anywhere near that close to Min over 2m4f, and we know he can’t have the ground soft enough and goes incredibly well fresh.

He is one of those you can see cruising through the race for a long way, and while there’s every chance he won’t stay, I wouldn’t mind betting plenty are beaten before he is.

Whether he can get near the front two is another matter as he needs to improve for the trip to do so, but Clan Des Obeaux comes into the race having had a much harder prep than in his previous two winning years, while Cyrname has not quite proved his stamina.

Sure, he won over 3m for the first time in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby, but the time was desperately slow and they went nothing like the searching gallop that is likely in this. He stopped rapidly in the straight last year, and it’s hard to shake that memory.

I do think Paul Nicholls’ two stars will end up fighting out the finish, but I’m happy with an each-way punt at much bigger odds, while there will be a without the front two market, and I’ll be looking around for those prices then.

Takingrisks the one to side with at Wetherby
If truth be told, Kempton on Boxing Day rarely offers a great punting card on ITV and it’s the same story this year.

Epatante is going to be a very warm order and unopposable for the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle, and you won’t get that rich backing Shan Blue to slam The Big Breakaway in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, which he surely will.

That said, there are some firms who put the two very close in the betting and I can only assume they haven’t been watching the same racing as I have – I’d have The Big Breakaway third favourite at best.

I had high hopes for The Big Breakaway this season, but he either has a few quirks or has very quickly turned into a slowboat.

Either way, if he jumps the way he has and Shan Blue attacks the Kempton fences like he did those at Wetherby, especially when really asked to race in the home straight the final time, there is going to be only one winner.

At Wetherby he gave 13lb to Snow Leopardess, who also jumped superbly, and in the straight ran clean away from the grey, who has since won a £40k Class 2 handicap at Haydock.

We of course shouldn’t rule out the classy If The Cap Fits, although he doesn’t yet look a natural and I’ll be disappointed if Shan Blue doesn’t give Dan Skelton another Grade 1 novice chase winner this season.

He has been by far the most impressive staying novice in Britain so far this season.

I can’t say I ever get that interested in betting at 2-1, though, so it’s off to Wetherby and the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase for the second value bet on Boxing Day.

Nearly Perfect was nearly the selection after winning so well at the course last time, but I’m a little bit concerned this might come a bit quick, and the bet at double the price is Takingrisks.

He is one of the outsiders of the field, but I can’t really have that given the way he ran in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time when fourth to Yorkhill.

He is going to be 6lb better off with the winner, which makes him only fairly handicapped, but Takingrisks shaped so much better than his six-and-a-half-length fourth suggests.

Having been badly hampered by a faller at the 11th fence, he jumped the next two stickily and was always on the back foot and, jumping the fourth-last, you’d have bet on him being beaten 20 lengths or more.

He really did rally strongly, though and was flying late on (in relation to those in front anyway), and given another 100 yards or so he’d have been right on top of the winner.

That was on good ground, arguably making the stamina test not quite sufficient for him (he won the race on heavy the year before) and he could well strip fitter again on his third start. At 16-1 he looks a fair each-way bet.

Lord to take Welsh National spoils
Only 20 were declared at the five-day stage for the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on Sunday, so we could have a smaller field than usual, and there are two horses with standout claims from a handicapping perspective.

Secret Reprieve and Vieux Lion Rouge are both 8lb well in after runaway successes three weeks ago, the former winning the Chepstow trial for this and the latter taking the Becher Chase for the second time.

Vieux Lion Rouge was pulled up in this race two years ago after running second in the Becher, so you can understand why the layers are more scared of the much younger Secret Reprieve.

There have been a few short-priced winners of this in recent years, most notably 11-4 Native River in 2016 and 3-1 Elegant Escape two years ago, and it’s certainly hard to argue that Secret Reprieve is not the one to beat should he stay the extra three-quarters of a mile here.

However, I’ve rarely been one to bet at such short odds in big handicaps and I’ve been quite keen on one for a while, even though his two outings this year will have looked very disappointing to many.

I’ve got this feeling, though, that Lord Du Mesnil’s whole campaign has been geared to peaking for this race – and he is going to get his perfect conditions in it.

Lord Du Mesnil made his name last year running in marathon races in stamina-sapping conditions, and having won twice at Haydock and finished second in the Grand National Trial there, he went on to be second in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.

Still only seven, he reappeared this year over 2m6f on decent ground in a novice hurdle, and the only thing surprising about his ten-length fourth there (to me anyway) was the fact he went off evens favourite. It could not have been a less suitable race for him.

Lord Du Mesnil then went to Aintree, but instead of running in the Becher Chase, which would have been much more suitable trip-wise, he turned out for the Grand Sefton over just 2m5f.

If he was expected to run to his best at Aintree, he would almost certainly have gone for the longer race, but he still shaped better than his 45-length ninth to Beau Bay suggests.

It’s fair to say he did not take that well to the fences as he made four of five mistakes, which shuffled him back in the field each time, but he was no more than a couple of lengths off the winner jumping two out and it’s testament to his ability that he managed to keep getting back into contention.

Whether he just got tired after those efforts or didn’t have the speed to go with them from there is neither here nor there because that wasn’t the right race for him.
This one is, and I expect him to jump a lot better and play a prominent role from the off. There won’t be many who handle what is certain to be bottomless ground as well as he does and he looks a cracking each-way bet.

piplip87

I look at Ballyadams last race again and have come to the conclusion that Ngolo didnt get much luck in running, ran out of room, and was closing near the line. While I think Ngolo is more of a Ballymore horse if the rain comes as its expected it will be a stamina test and I think Ngolo turn the tables.

Pogue eile

piplip87 wrote: »

I look at Ballyadams last race again and have come to the conclusion that Ngolo didnt get much luck in running, ran out of room, and was closing near the line. While I think Ngolo is more of a Ballymore horse if the rain comes as its expected it will be a stamina test and I think Ngolo turn the tables.

I tend to agree and I backed him for the Ballymore but am beginning to think that the Supreme might be where he ends up, especially with Ferny and Shewearsitwell on the sidelines.

IAMAMORON

Pogue eile wrote: »

Paul Townend is going to Limerick to ride Asterion Forlonge and its the only race on the card that De Bromhead doesn't have a runner in.

Do they expect any improvement out of the one David Mullins is riding?

piplip87

Is Monalee going to run in the Savils ? Jaysus it says something about the state of Irish racing when I was ready to lump on for the King George but wouldn't touch it in the Savils..

IAMAMORON

piplip87 wrote: »

Is Monalee going to run in the Savils ? Jaysus it says something about the state of Irish racing when I was ready to lump on for the King George but wouldn't touch it in the Savils..

Hopefully David Mullins gets the ride.

supremenovice

supremenovice wrote: »

But the one I'm teeing up as my bet of the week is Tiger Tap Tap on the 27th at Leopardstown. Willie Mullins said to watch out for him in a handicap hurdle at Christmas time and I see he is entered for one on the 27th. I know a lot of folk think he talks through his hole but I'm going to take his word on this.
I've no opinion on the Welsh National yet, usually an impossible task for me anyway. Bring it on though

Early prices out in Powers and our boy is 25/1. Thank you Paddy, Ill have a bit of that please:D

Pogue eile

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Do they expect any improvement out of the one David Mullins is riding?

They rated him very highly before his first run and were shocked at the ease with which he was beaten. Ha D'or expected to be a better horse than Saint Sam come March.

IAMAMORON

I think for all punters just be careful getting on over the next 48 hrs. I checked the going on the Irish Racing website and it currently says yielding for Leopardstown?

It has been pissing all night and day here and whilst it is to clear tomorrow and Friday it is hardly drying weather expected. It is forecast to shower on Saturday so I reckon it can't go off any better than soft. Albeit Leopardstown does drain well, I would not be expecting any quick winter ground either. I would say it will be as dead as phuck also, as when water gets into it and then cold evenings on top... generally bogs it up and makes it sticky - basically a lot deader than yielding.

Just Saying.

IAMAMORON

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think for all punters just be careful getting on over the next 48 hrs. I checked the going on the Irish Racing website and it currently says yielding for Leopardstown?

It has been pissing all night and day here and whilst it is to clear tomorrow and Friday it is hardly drying weather expected. It is forecast to shower on Saturday so I reckon it can't go off any better than soft. Albeit Leopardstown does drain well, I would not be expecting any quick winter ground either. I would say it will be as dead as phuck also, as when water gets into it and then cold evenings on top... generally bogs it up and makes it sticky - basically a lot deader than yielding.

Just Saying.

Significant rain overnight at Leopardstown has certainly alleviated any prospect of watering for the moment.

The south County Dublin venue was hit with 18mm of rain overnight (23mm in total since the last update on Monday morning) and the chase course is now yielding with the hurdle course described as yielding to soft.

The inner hurdle course will be used on days three and four of the Festival meeting, and the going is currently described as soft on this part of the track.

There is the potential for a further 5-10mm of rain prior to racing on Saturday with an unsettled forecast thereafter.

There was a further 20mm of rain at Limerick where the going remains heavy. The forecast is mainly dry in the region over the next few days but unsettled from Saturday.

Source: irishracing.com

Brock Turnpike

supremenovice wrote: »

Saint Calvados at 25/1 is an interesting outsider in the King George.
Beaten 1/2 length by Min in the Ryanair is top class form and it could be they've been running him over the wrong trip up until then. Not good enough to beat Clan des Obeaux but finish 3rd at 5/1? Well since Cyrname and Lostintranslation bombed in the race last year and at 7yo, it could be he has more to offer.

Into 14s already.

del roy

Boxing Day TV Trends: Sat 26th Dec 2020
21/12/2020/by Andy Newton
A huge day on Boxing Day, but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize – while the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux has landed the last two King George VI Chases.

Plus, at Wetherby the ITV cameras are also heading there to take in the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Chase.

We take a look at each race on the Kempton card and highlight the main trends, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners.



Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
12:40 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Novices' Hurdle Race 2m RTV

13/13 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
12/13 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/13 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
9/13 – Had won a NH Flat race before
7/13 – Won just once over hurdles before
7/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
Fred (9/2) won the race 12 months ago



1.15 – Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Novices’ Limited Hancicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
15/16 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
13/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
8/16 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
8/16 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/16 – Won by a French bred horse
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Raced at Kempton last time out
Commanche Red (4/1) won the race 12 months ago

1.50 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Placed in the top two last time out
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – French (7) or Irish (6) bred
12/17 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners)
10/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
8/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by David Pipe
2/17 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/17 – French trained
1/17 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)
Slate House (3/1) won the race 12 months ago



2.25 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019) winners)
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Winning favourites
10/18 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
9/18 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
8/18 – Irish trained
8/18 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
7/18 – French bred
7/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/18 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Epatante (2/1) won the race 12 months ago



3.00 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

16/18 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Had won a Grade One chase before
16/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/18 – French (12) or Irish bred (4)
15/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
14/18 – Officially rated 169 or higher
14/18 – Aged 8 or younger
11/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
10/18 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
10/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (11 times in all)
8/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 34 runnings)
Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained 5 of the last 10 winners (2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 4/1



3.35 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV


13/13 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
10/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/13 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/13 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
8/13 – Officially rated 120-129
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – French bred
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Honest Vic (10/1) won the race 12 months ago



Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
11/12 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/12 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had raced at Wetherby before
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/12 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
7/12 – Unplaced in their last race
7/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/12– Winning favourites
Top Ville Ben won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad won the race in 2018

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Dan Skelton previews his Boxing Day runners at Kempton and Wetherby



We have been flat out getting ready for Christmas and I am pleased to say we are now all set for Boxing Day, which hopefully will be a big day for the stable.

We will have runners at Kempton and Wetherby, with Harry riding at Kempton. He has a good chance in the first race where we have Third Time Lucki (12.40).

I have had this race in mind for him for a bit, after it looked like it was going to be way too soft for him at Ascot, which it was in the end.

I am looking forward to running him on a track like this and on better ground. I think he is a very good horse who can go very close here.

Alnadam (13.15) runs in the novices handicap chase to which he brings a nice bit of form from both of his runs this year. The rain is a help and I’d like to think he can be very competitive again. He is in very good form at home and looks like he is a much better chaser than hurdler.

Shan Blue (13.50) runs in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. Again this is a race I have had in mind for him all season. He looked good over 3m at Wetherby. He hasn’t run since but that’s not a concern. His work has been good, his jumping has been good. We go there full of optimism and the track will not be a problem.

Riggs (15.35) contests the last. He won last time and this is a step up in grade. I wanted to find the best ground we could for him because I think he was finding it hard work in the end at Uttoxeter, where he probably won despite the conditions. I’ve been happy with how he looks and how he has been going.

At Wetherby we start with Global Harmony (11.50) who won last time at Wincanton. She is a nice progressive mare who I think will again go very well.

Shannon Bridge (13.28) runs in a two and a half mile handicap. Bridget won on him last year at Uttoxeter over two and a half. Maybe I’ve been guilty of thinking 3m is his trip, when it is actually two and a half so we will give that another go.

We also have Spiritofthegames (14.05) in the Rowland Meyrick. He carries top weight. Normally he would go to Cheltenham and run in a big handicap there and finish placed. We thought if we keep doing that we will only get the same result.

So we are mixing things up a bit here. I’ve been very happy with him and look forward to seeing him run.

Supremely Lucky (14.40) runs in a handicap hurdle. It doesn’t look like he really likes fences that much despite being a big scopey horse by Milan.

I think he might be better over hurdles so we are giving them a try. He’s been well at home.

Happy Christmas

Dan

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ALAN KING

Canelo bids for Rowland Meyrick glory at Wetherby on Boxing Day
By Geoff Lester Posted December 23, 2020 In Latest News 0
December 23

We start Boxing Day with our November Handicap hero On To Victory taking on three previous winners in the opening novices’ hurdle at Kempton.

You can forget On To Victory’s flop on the all-weather at the Sunbury course in November – Alan said he hated the polytrack surface – and, arguably two miles on the level stretches his stamina.

However, Alan is keen to get him going again over hurdles, a sphere in which he showed plenty of promise last season, and, though it looks a decent race, he tells me the horse has been working well at home.

We have two other runners at Kempton, and, assessing their chances, Alan added:”William H Bonney goes for the novices’ handicap chase, and I was pleased the way he travelled and jumped when finishing third on his debut over fences in a two-miler at Newbury last month,

“We are keen to try him over further, and, though he did not stay this two and a half over hurdles in his younger days, if he is going to get that trip anywhere it is probably Kempton, plus the fact that his chasing mark is 125, and he reached 137 at one time over hurdles.

“We also run another of our Royal Ascot winners, Coeur de Lion, in the two miles and five handicap hurdle there. He ran ok over three miles at Newbury’s Ladbroke meeting, but I think this is more his trip over hurdles.”

Finally, we have Canelo running in the prestigious Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby. Alan said:”He won well at Aintree and was then staying on well at the finish when runner-up to Cap du Nord at Newbury, so stepping him up to three miles should suit him.”


FWIW

I’d also be wary of Alan King’s record in Wetherby handicaps…3/47 | 6% S/R | -£36.04 – 64% below exp.

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Paddy Brennan: “A mark of 136 gives us chances in a very competitive handicap”

Paddy Brennan - 3 minutes ago

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Paddy Brennan on two Kempton Boxing Day rides
Kempton
1.15pm
Champagne Well
We have been happy enough with all three of his runs this season, despite being beaten on each occasion. And the good thing is that he has been dropped 5lb at the same time. I think he bumped into a decent one in Golan Fortune, who runs in the Kauto Star on this card, at Ludlow last time – the winner went into the race having been in good form over hurdles, and won well on his chasing debut – and I think a mark of 136 gives us chances in what is obviously a very competitive handicap. More rain, stepping down in trip, will be fine and hopefully cheek pieces will help, too.



3.35pm
Jarveys Plate
He didn’t run up to his best when we last saw him at Perth in September but the handicapper has dropped his chase and hurdles mark 3lb to 138, and that underestimates his raw talent. That is a fair mark on his win over hurdles at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day last season and we know he was even better over fences at Chepstow last October. He goes well fresh, too. However, this is no easy task off top weight.

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Tom Scudamore: “One For The Team could cause an upset”

Coral ambassador previews his Boxing Day rides
13.15 Kempton – Hold The Note
He ran a lot better last time at Cheltenham. Three miles may have been stretching him so going back to two and a half miles on soft ground seemed to suit him better. He led them a merry dance for a long way. He’s always had plenty of ability. I’d like to think he’ll have a good solid chance.

13.50 Kempton – One For the Team
I really like this horse. Yes we have a lot find with some of the opposition. We need to find 20lbs with If The Cap Fits and 12lbs with Shan Blue. But his performance last time was a really good one behind Next Destination.

I would like as much rain as possible as he wants the softer ground. The more emphasis on stamina the better. Whatever he does on Saturday he is going to be a very nice horse for the future.

You can pick holes in all of them. If The Cap Fits has been beaten. The Big Breakaway had been beaten. They’ve always thought a lot of Shan Blue and he’s now starting to live up to his reputation but he still has to improve again.

I like my horse a lot. He could cause a bit of an upset.

15.00 Kempton – Black Op
This is a nice ride to pick up in the Ladbrokes King George. On the face of it he has plenty to find but he was a classy hurdler and has beaten Lostintranslation. He’s yet to fully translate that hurdles form to chasing, but he finished second in the Kauto Star last year, so has form round the track.

His confidence has improved over fences and he just didn’t seem to get home over the longer trip in the Ladbrokes Trophy last time out. Tom George trained a big priced outsider, Double Shuffle, to be second in the King George a few years ago and Black Op is at least as good if not better than that horse.

It would not surprise me at all if Black Op is still travelling well turning into the straight and who knows what happens from that point on.

Clan Des Obeaux is a very good horse but he had a hard race at Haydock last time out. Cyrname is the best horse in the race but flopped last year. They’ve all got question marks against them. It’s a much more open race that you might think.

15.35 Kempton – Let’s Get At It
He’s having his first start for Nick. He’s had a bit of time off so hopefully he can be competitive though I’m sure he’ll improve for it.

Tom

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Richard Johnston

King George day at Kempton is always one of the highlights of the season and it’s a shame there won’t be any racegoers there this year, but it’s obviously a very difficult time. I have a couple of rides on Boxing Day and although the declarations won’t be out for the 27th for a couple days, I expect to be riding Gumball against Shishkin in the Wayward Lad.

Kempton, Boxing Day

KALOOKI – 1:50pm Kempton
I was really impressed with him on his chasing debut at Newbury and I don’t think he quite ran up to that form last time behind Next Destination back at Newbury. The ground was a bit lively but it should be on the slower side at Kempton which will help him. There’s not a lot between them on official ratings and I think he’s got a very good chance in what looks an open race.

He should take a step forward from that last run and seemed in very good order when schooling on Monday. He’s still on the upgrade and it would be lovely to win the Kauto Star again after doing so on La Bague Au Roi a couple of years ago. She had a fantastic novice chase season, with the highlight of her career being this race two years ago. She’s recently been retired and she gave us some wonderful memories.

3:00pm Kempton – King George
Paul Nicholls doesn’t have a bad record in this race with just the 11 wins and he looks to hold a very strong hand again. Clan Des Obeaux ran an excellent race at Haydock behind a course specialist who adores heavy ground. We know he loves this track having won the race for the past two years, while the better ground will suit. He’s the one they all have to beat.

But I was impressed with the way Cyrname jumped, travelled and stayed in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. Most people thought he couldn’t go left-handed before that so coming back to a flat, right-handed track may suit him even more. He surely won’t be far away.

I wouldn’t write off Lostintranslation, though. He hated the ground at Haydock and will be much better suited to conditions on Boxing Day. I rode him in the Scilly Isles back in 2019 and he’s a very good horse. I think you’ll see a big improvement from him on the better surface.

PUSH THE TEMPO – 3:35pm Kempton
I haven’t sat on him before but I’ve ridden against him plenty of times and he’s a nice ride to pick up for Robert Stephens. He was fourth in the Silver Trophy back in October which reads well and if he can reproduce that here he will have a decent each-way chance.

Kempton, Sunday 27th

GUMBALL – 1:20pm Kempton
I really think Kempton will suit him. He was very impressive at Uttoxeter in October and then he was running a massive race at Cheltenham last time when falling at the second last. We need to bounce back from that but he seems in really good form at home. We’re under no illusions, Shishkin will be very hard to beat, although he’ll have to run up to a fair mark to beat my horse.

Chepstow, Sunday
2:50pm Chepstow – Welsh Grand National
The conditions are going to be really testing at Chepstow and you’re going to need a horse that stays really well. Secret Reprieve was very good last time and he has the perfect racing weight, but he has to prove he gets the trip. There are plenty in there like Yala Enki and Cloudy Glen who will relish the test.

It was a brilliant day four years ago when I won the Welsh National on Native River and the Tizzards then did it again two years later with Elegant Escape. The race has been named in Colin’s daughter Kim’s memory this year and it would be lovely for everyone if they were to win it again with Christmas In April.

Finally, I would like to wish everyone Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. It’s been such a tough year for so many people and hopefully things are going to get a lot better in 2021.

Plasandrunt

Surely Asterion Forlonge is as good a odds against bet you're likely to get running in Limerick on Saturday. Townend riding in his only ride on the card, a right handed course, fine on the ground and up against a very talented horse in Pencilfulloflead but one that looks like he needs further and the likes of Janadil and Colreevy who'll both need to come on to challenge.

I've got 25points on him, my biggest win single in quite a while.

akelly02

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Surely Asterion Forlonge is as good a odds against bet you're likely to get running in Limerick on Saturday. Townend riding in his only ride on the card, a right handed course, fine on the ground and up against a very talented horse in Pencilfulloflead but one that looks like he needs further and the likes of Janadil and Colreevy who'll both need to come on to challenge.

I've got 25points on him, my biggest win single in quite a while.

I hope for your sake you are only a euro a point

IAMAMORON

akelly02 wrote: »

I hope for your sake you are only a euro a point

I don't think it is terrible bet tbh.

The horse is serious monster and if there were no fences he would beat them a street. I still have my doubt that Pencilfulloflead will actually run, his price is huge and he is entered in the Leopardstown 3 mile on Tuesday.

If Asterion Forlonge can get his jumping sorted he could be some yoke. When he won the novice hurdle last February at Leopardstown my jaw fell off, he has a serious engine. He has already stuffed 17 other horses over fences, he should be winning it.

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Timeform put forward a tip at each of the six meetings set to take place on Boxing Day.

Hollymount Holly - 11:50 Wetherby

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Point and bumper winner Hollymount Holly shaped with promise when runner-up on her debut over hurdles at Wincanton in March, pulling seven lengths clear of a subsequent winner, and she is of obvious interest on her return to action. It was encouraging how well she stuck to her task when tackled at Wincanton, so this step up to just shy of two and a half miles should suit. She remains open to improvement over hurdles.

One Cool Poet - 13:40 Leopardstown

One Cool Poet's form took off in 2019 and he memorably won three times on the Flat during the Galway Festival before bagging a big prize on Irish Champions Weekend. He has not run over hurdles since showing that markedly improved form, so he could be very well treated on his return to jumping from a lowly mark of just 102. He posted an encouraging effort when beaten less than a length on the Flat at Dundalk last week and is an extremely interesting runner for Matthew Smith, a trainer who has been going well all season.

Shan Blue - 13:50 Kempton

Shan Blue could hardly have taken better to chasing and has posted two hugely impressive, wide-margin wins at Wetherby. His jumping looked a big asset when he justified strong support in a two-and-a-half-mile novice chase on his debut over fences, putting his rivals to the sword from a long way out. He followed that up with an even more impressive display over three miles at the same course, defying a penalty with ease, and he has all the tools to make up into a high-class staying chaser.

Asterion Forlonge - 14:35 Limerick

This is a fascinating Grade 1 and four of the five runners have the Timeform 'small p' attached to their rating, indicating improvement is expected. Pencilfulloflead heads the ratings after his impressive defeat of Latest Exhibition over two and three-quarter miles at Punchestown, but the drop in trip doesn't look a plus and preference is for Asterion Forlonge. Asterion Forlonge was hugely impressive when winning a Grade 1 novice hurdle at Leopardstown in February on just his second start over hurdles, but a tendency to jump right cost him when sent off favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. He also jumped right on his chasing debut at Punchestown last month, but it didn't prevent him beating a subsequent winner by six lengths, and he remains an exciting prospect.

Tedham - 14:45 Wincanton

Tedham was pulled up on his chasing debut at Exeter last month, running no sort of race, but he looks interesting on his return to hurdling with good-value 7-lb claimer Kevin Brogan booked. Tedham hasn't scored since winning on handicap debut over this course and distance nearly two years ago, but he has been lightly raced and has shaped as if having a bigger effort in his locker. This trip is arguably shorter than ideal nowadays but testing conditions should at least put a premium on stamina.

Papa Stour - 15:30 Wolverhampton

Papa Stour has progressed well since joining Stuart Williams, proving successful on three of his five starts, including the last two. Papa Stour was easy to back on his first start for eight months at Kempton in November but he picked up where he left off, sticking to his task well to prevail by half a length. That form his working out well, with the runner-up scoring next time, and Papa Stour still looks fairly treated after going up 4 lb. Papa Stour won over this course and distance for his previous yard so will have no problem under these conditions.


By Timeform — published 24th December 2020

We've used the unique Timeform Flags to pick out a bet on Boxing Day.

Flags are an evolution of Timeform's long-standing practices. Collectively they represent a unique set of modern and useful innovations to give you even more of an edge.

Shan Blue - 13:50 Kempton

Flags: Top-Rated, Horse In Focus

Shan Blue was not one of the leading novice hurdlers last season but he looks set to take high rank in the novice chase division based on two hugely impressive displays at Wetherby. He scored by 14 lengths on his chasing debut and then showed even better form to defy a penalty on his latest outing, scoring by 16 lengths after putting in a scintillating round of jumping. The runner-up has since paid Shan Blue a compliment by winning a handicap on her next outing. Shan Blue has all the tools to make up into a high-class chaser and looks the one to beat in this Grade 1 event.