Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

caadmium

Timmaay wrote: »

Bought some Danaos this evening, shipping container company who has been flying it last 6months (big shortage of shipping containers post covid. Earnings today, they are in a good position but immediately selloff, so good time to get in at 56. I was in at 26 6months ago but sold out at 32 ugh ha.

Cheers. Danaos is top rated by Seeking Alpha. Was just looking at it yesterday looking for alternatives to Tech. Got scared by the YTD growth but somehow missed that earnings was today. Looks like it could be an opportunity.

RedRochey

SmokyMo wrote: »

Wouldnt that be under assumption that distribution is gaussian which it is not in financial markets. so I think that expectation would be technically incorrect?
but then capital markets are running off models which do not represent reality.

Oh ya it assumes a normal distribution so not really accurate, but hey why let the truth get in the way of a good story!

gudede

DutchYurt wrote: »

If you had 1k sitting on the sidelines today considering the amount of blood where would you put it? This is me buying the dip for the 5th time.

Short term gains - probably go with the banks or energy company.

Longer term - Skillz, Draftkings, Goodrx and Cielo Waste.

pioneerpro

SmokyMo wrote: »

Wouldnt that be under assumption that distribution is gaussian which it is not in financial markets. so I think that expectation would be technically incorrect?
but then capital markets are running off models which do not represent reality.

This is a good explanation and addresses the Sigma/Deviation distribution delta you're focusing on

https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2016/07/understanding-interpreting-high-sigma-events-black-swans/

cc87

ARRYs turn today....down 17% pre-market but very low volume. At least it's a small holding for me!
Earnings didn't look too good as they had a big bump in orders last year before the expected reduction of the solar tax credit, which was extended another two years then.

Think this could be down for a while, supply issues affecting costs and green stocks losing momentum in general.
Nice buying opportunity though.

the butcher

Turnaround Tuesday

DutchYurt

the butcher wrote: »

Turnaround Tuesday

I had to double check but today is definitely Wednesday

bcklschaps

DutchYurt wrote: »

I had to double check but today is definitely Wednesday

I think the Butcher is suggesting that Yesterdays late session rally might signal a turnaround in the Markets. Hence "Turnaround Tuesday". Today will tell... obviously ???

Personally I've been dumping shares (left, right and center... ) for the last week or soo. Just can't be dealing with this market volatility.

Fortunately last Oct/Nov when Tech had a wobble I diversified out to some Value stocks & commodities .. which have held up well and even thrived.

There you go Kids, lesson for today... diversified portfolio.

MfMan

Flutter getting a good roasting in recent weeks. Pending court actions v Fox could be creating an overhang, but now looking oversold? Longer term prospects in nascent American markets would appear to be promising.

cc87

Lotz @5.50 is a bargain I think for its potential.

Impressive recent earnings YOY but SP still tanked after it.
Used car prices up 10% in the last month, opening around 12 new location this year and website/app upgrade planned.

Underground

Very little EV exposure, thinking of buying NIO. I just can't bring myself to buy Tesla at this stage so it's a toss up for me between NIO and Volkswagen.

Need to do my own dd but would be curious what preference people in here would have if choosing between the above two.

cc87

Underground wrote: »

Very little EV exposure, thinking of buying NIO. I just can't bring myself to buy Tesla at this stage so it's a toss up for me between NIO and Volkswagen.

Need to do my own dd but would be curious what preference people in here would have if choosing between the above two.

Depends on your acceptable risk I think.

VW is the safe option.
NIO would be higher risk mainly because it's a Chinese stock but potentially higher reward.
CCIV would be another one worth looking at, at it's lowest since mid-January. Lucid should start delivering cars before the end of the year, probably Q3 I think.

littlevillage

cc87 wrote: »

Depends on your acceptable risk I think.

VW is the safe option.
NIO would be higher risk mainly because it's a Chinese stock but potentially higher reward.
CCIV would be another one worth looking at, at it's lowest since mid-January. Lucid should start delivering cars before the end of the year, probably Q3 I think.

Had all three plus Ford, GM & Tesla.

Sold out of Tesla, CCIV...and halved my holdings of VW & NIO.

Of the two you mention, I think VW might be a good bet at the moment back from €250 to about €205 in the last month. Otherwise have a look at Ford & GM.

treatyman

So many opportunities , so little available cash.

caadmium

treatyman wrote: »

So many opportunities , so little available cash.

Treatyman, what would you buy if you had the cash?

cc87

PSTH moving on the back of BAs comment today....

"I'll give you a little more. We've been working on a transaction since November. It'll either be done in the next few weeks, or we'll move onto the next one"

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

PSTH moving on the back of BAs comment today....

"I'll give you a little more. We've been working on a transaction since November. It'll either be done in the next few weeks, or we'll move onto the next one"

Where is that quote from?

cc87

cronos wrote: »

Where is that quote from?

He's speaking at WSJ Future of Everything Festival

https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-live-bill-ackman-at-the-wsj-future-of-everything-festival/07EDBED0-F937-48CF-B1EB-4F200870D4AC.html

pioneerpro

cc87 wrote: »

PSTH moving on the back of BAs comment today....

"I'll give you a little more. We've been working on a transaction since November. It'll either be done in the next few weeks, or we'll move onto the next one"

• Bill said he's cautiously optimistic - no guarantees - that they will have a deal hopefully in the next few weeks or they will move on.
• They've been working this same deal since November
• Bill says don't buy short dated calls on the SPAC (see comment above)
• Interviewer started naming names off of the biggest private companies list - He stopped her after she mentioned HEB and Mars - says he won't go through list until she figures it out.
• Bill does not like supermarkets
• They have spending all their time working on this deal to bring this company public and solve their issues with selling
• No need more any additional money beyond the $5B, still a minority stake
• Said this is an "iconic" and phenomenal business
• She asked about Starbucks - he swapped Starbucks for Dominos.
• Mentioned Chipotle

cc87

pioneerpro wrote: »

• Bill said he's cautiously optimistic - no guarantees - that they will have a deal hopefully in the next few weeks or they will move on.
• They've been working this same deal since November
• Bill says don't buy short dated calls on the SPAC (see comment above)
• Interviewer started naming names off of the biggest private companies list - He stopped her after she mentioned HEB and Mars - says he won't go through list until she figures it out.
• Bill does not like supermarkets
• They have spending all their time working on this deal to bring this company public and solve their issues with selling
• No need more any additional money beyond the $5B, still a minority stake
• Said this is an "iconic" and phenomenal business
• She asked about Starbucks - he swapped Starbucks for Dominos.
• Mentioned Chipotle

The comment about short dated calls makes me think it's going to be a strong value stock which will likely drop the price as it's not the stripe/starlink type hype/growth stock.

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

The comment about short dated calls makes me think it's going to be a strong value stock which will likely drop the price as it's not the stripe/starlink type hype/growth stock.

To me it means he's not sure what date the deal will get done by as he said earlier in the statement by the sounds of it.

pioneerpro

cronos wrote: »

To me it means he's not sure what date the deal will get done by as he said earlier in the statement by the sounds of it.

This exactly. Doesn't want another run on a 'premium' SPAC.

I can see this going to NAV when it's revealed its not Stripe/Plaid, but won't discount a hail-mary for Bloomberg or something.

crushproof

LMND down 15% today to 62. Quite a large share of my portfolio so this one hurts. Why oh why did not take profit when it was up to $175.

cronos

pioneerpro wrote: »

This exactly. Doesn't want another run on a 'premium' SPAC.

I can see this going to NAV when it's revealed its not Stripe/Plaid, but won't discount a hail-mary for Bloomberg or something.

If this SPAC does not work out then the SPAC concept is dead I think. I would take the fact he's working on it since november to mean they are hardballing valuation. I think given where it is now around 23 it will have some up side. I think everyone already knows it's not Stripe at this stage. If anyone is working on that assumption then they will be sadly mistaken.

I have some cash in it at 23.5 BEP. Higher than I'd like to be honest but it's not BEP 30 at least.

cronos

crushproof wrote: »

LMND down 15% today to 62. Quite a large share of my portfolio so this one hurts. Why oh why did not take profit when it was up to $175.

It's rough to ride a wave that high and come back down, I've been there. Best not to let it dictate all future decisions. I will in future consider if I make 200% in a short period of time that it's time to sell. Can't be sustained for any medium or large company.

Atlas_IRL

cronos wrote: »

It's rough to ride a wave that high and come back down, I've been there. Best not to let it dictate all future decisions. I will in future consider if I make 200% in a short period of time that it's time to sell. Can't be sustained for any medium or large company.

Definitely especially if its not a triple-A company as well, very rare to get those tesla type runs that sustain it for a good period of time and if its a spac or smaller company the drop back is coming.

Underground

Yeah LMND is killing me, wiped out any small recovery from yesterday. Been buying on the way down but after a while it starts to feel like throwing good money after bad.

Long term hold for me, no choice really!

bish76

When Life Gives you Lemons... Make Lemonade
I made lots of it... and happy to share but no one wants it.

treatyman

caadmium wrote: »

Treatyman, what would you buy if you had the cash?

All the ones that are miles from my BEP :):)

TDOC, LMND, SPCE are killing me but wouldn't advise them as there is probably more pain to come by the looks of it, we are seeing lower lows still and no sign of a recovery.

Personally if I could turn back time I'd have sold out back in late Jan when things started to turn and I wouldn't even contemplate buying until there is signs of recovery.

MikeSoys

treatyman wrote: »

All the ones that are miles from my BEP :):)

TDOC, LMND, SPCE are killing me but wouldn't advise them as there is probably more pain to come by the looks of it, we are seeing lower lows still and no sign of a recovery.

Personally if I could turn back time I'd have sold out back in late Jan when things started to turn and I wouldn't even contemplate buying until there is signs of recovery.

more pain until FEd calms the market. they will need to raise rates sooner but not cause issues for T bill.... helicopter money might be on the way ie,:..crack cocaine for wall street-figurativly!

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes: ;-)