Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

cronos

pioneerpro wrote: »

So PSTH got UMG... RIP Bagholders.

https://twitter.com/CaraRLombardo/status/1400570727762432003

Disappointing. Seems to be holding my BEP for now. But looks bad. Even though it may not be that bad a deal.

Bad news for the Spac market.

cc87

cronos wrote: »

Disappointing. Seems to be holding my BEP for now. But looks bad. Even though it may not be that bad a deal.

Bad news for the Spac market.

Down 7% after hours.

I can see funds going for it but retail running.
As a company Universal seems a great investment but miles away from the hype stock people wanted.

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

Down 7% after hours.

I can see funds going for it but retail running.
As a company Universal seems a great investment but miles away from the hype stock people wanted.

Dropped 15% and is slowly recovering. Certainly not what people wanted. But with a BEP of 23.5 I'm not so worried. Wouldn't be happy if I'd bought in at 30.

cc87

cronos wrote: »

Dropped 15% and is slowly recovering. Certainly not what people wanted. But with a BEP of 23.5 I'm not so worried. Wouldn't be happy if I'd bought in at 30.

Mines slightly higher at $25 so down a bit atm.

Think it will be interesting to see the details of the deal if there is one. It's a $50bn company being valued at $40bn with annual revenues topping $7bn, incl over $1bn from streaming alone last quarter.

What do they need the money for?

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

Mines slightly higher at $25 so down a bit atm.

Think it will be interesting to see the details of the deal if there is one. It's a $50bn company being valued at $40bn with annual revenues topping $7bn, incl over $1bn from streaming alone last quarter.

What do they need the money for?

Could launch their own streaming platform like Disney did with Disney Plus. Not sure it would be a great idea though. People don't have the same kind of connection with a music label. I do think what Spotify do is easy to replicate though so may be worth a try.

I'm already hoping Amazon announce they will buy them out for Amazon Music like they did for MGM haha. A man can dream.

I suspect he won't need "the technology" as much for PSTH2. He may also have to hold off on the "SPAC Dreams" youtube videos.

cc87

cronos wrote: »

Could launch their own streaming platform like Disney did with Disney Plus. Not sure it would be a great idea though. People don't have the same kind of connection.

I'm already hoping Amazon announce they will buy them out for Amazon Music like they did for MGM haha. A man can dream.

I suspect he won't need "the technology" as much for PSTH2. He may also have to hold off on the "SPAC Dreams" youtube videos.

A streaming platform of their own was my thoughts as well. Probably more likely to try and take a majority in spotify or something like that though.

Maybe that's why it's taking so long, it's a merger of UMG and Spotify! :P


EDIT: For comparison $WMG, Warner Music, SP is $35 with a MCAP about half of what UMG might be. This could turn out to be a very good LTH, all dependent on the details of the deal though.

pioneerpro

Nay to any point involving UMG/Spotify in relation to PSTH btw

https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/universals-stake-in-spotify-is-worth-over-1-6bn-but-its-got-no-plans-to-sell-up/

Chuckie_Egg

Reminds me of CCIV. Once the deal got announced it tanked. I suspect this will do similar

Shedite27

I’m okay with Universal, my only concern is the makeup, they’re only buying 10% of the company, so i suspect when we get the details of the deal PSTH holders will own very little of it

Shedite27

Just reading through the deal, there’s more to it than a traditional merger. For each PSTH share we get
- 1 share in Universal
- the share in PSTH remains in place, that becomes another SPAC ($SPARC)
- a warrant in $SPARC

I’m sure there’ll be better analysis through the day but that’s my initial reading. Nice deal

https://pstontine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PSTH-Press-Release-6.4.2021.pdf

GoldFour4

Yeah I’m looking at the press release and wondering have there been other SPAC deals like it? UMG was already going public via Euronext so PSTH holders are just getting part of it.

Albeit there will still be 1.5 billion of a war chest in PSTH post deal and the SPARC angle (which I need to read a bit more about) so still upside in PSTH.

Cute Hoor

cronos wrote: »

Disappointing. Seems to be holding my BEP for now. But looks bad. Even though it may not be that bad a deal.

Bad news for the Spac market.

Could mark the end of the SPAC hype

AmberGold

Shedite27 wrote: »

Just reading through the deal, there’s more to it than a traditional merger. For each PSTH share we get
- 1 share in Universal
- the share in PSTH remains in place, that becomes another SPAC ($SPARC)
- a warrant in $SPARC

I’m sure there’ll be better analysis through the day but that’s my initial reading. Nice deal

https://pstontine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PSTH-Press-Release-6.4.2021.pdf

After an initial doubts this looks to be a great deal!

cc87

Shedite27 wrote: »

Just reading through the deal, there’s more to it than a traditional merger. For each PSTH share we get
- 1 share in Universal
- the share in PSTH remains in place, that becomes another SPAC ($SPARC)
- a warrant in $SPARC

I’m sure there’ll be better analysis through the day but that’s my initial reading. Nice deal

https://pstontine.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/PSTH-Press-Release-6.4.2021.pdf

Am I right in reading it means there is the potential that from one share of PSTH currently we could end up with shares in 3 separate companies?

UMG
PSTH next merger with the remaining cash but no timeline as it isn't restricted by the 2 year timeline, “PSTH Remainco”.
SPARC and whatever it does but that could take upto 5 years.

SmokyMo

I have small enough position in PSTH lingering in my account, debating what to do with it.
I am not really well versed in SPACs, but why the consensus that this deal is bad?

cc87

SmokyMo wrote: »

I have small enough position in PSTH lingering in my account, debating what to do with it.
I am not really well versed in SPACs, but why the consensus that this deal is bad?

Not an EV/tech startup projecting 10bn in revenue with no current products.



Tongue in cheek but basically that. It's not the Stripe/Starlink hype stock people wanted. Complicated deal in comparison to other SPACs also which would scare off people.

Chuckie_Egg

SmokyMo wrote: »

I have small enough position in PSTH lingering in my account, debating what to do with it.
I am not really well versed in SPACs, but why the consensus that this deal is bad?

It's not that it's a bad deal, more to do with the hype up to the deal which has the spac price well above its base price of $20, along with them paying top dollar to get the deal paying $4 billion for 10%. Tencent holdings bought 20% of the business a few months ago for less than $6 billion.

SmokyMo

cc87 wrote: »

Not an EV/tech startup projecting 10bn in revenue with no current products.



Tongue in cheek but basically that. It's not the Stripe/Starlink hype stock people wanted. Complicated deal in comparison to other SPACs also which would scare off people.

Maybe I ll keep it then see what happens. But I knew it wouldn't be stripe and I am happy its not EV start up as most of them are pile of steaming sh'ite.

Shedite27

cc87 wrote: »

Am I right in reading it means there is the potential that from one share of PSTH currently we could end up with shares in 3 separate companies?

UMG
PSTH next merger with the remaining cash but no timeline as it isn't restricted by the 2 year timeline, “PSTH Remainco”.
SPARC and whatever it does but that could take upto 5 years.

I think it's 2 companies...
Universal
A Share of PSTH2
A warrant of PSTH2

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

Not an EV/tech startup projecting 10bn in revenue with no current products.



Tongue in cheek but basically that. It's not the Stripe/Starlink hype stock people wanted. Complicated deal in comparison to other SPACs also which would scare off people.

Given the market reaction to this deal thus far one definitely has to question the value of having money in SPAC's. As one could just buy in this morning as the valuation has gone almost nowhere. Although is fluctuating down mostly thus far. Did come back to almost 25 and then dropped back again.

Think I'll hold but may have to consider reducing some of my position. It's currently about 5% of my portfolio at 23.5 BEP. Lets see.

cc87

Shedite27 wrote: »

I think it's 2 companies...
Universal
A Share of PSTH2
A warrant of PSTH2

Isn't there still going to be a PSTH listing after the UMG merger though?

So there'll be...
UMG
PSTH
SPARC

"PSTH Remainco intends to remain listed on the NYSE. Because the transaction will satisfy the requirements of an initial business combination, PSTH Remainco will no longer be treated as a SPAC under NYSE listing rules"

Treppen

I think it's a good outcome , ( if it happens).
Tech company could go any way, and Strype was never going to happen. At least this is a well established brand that's earning money.

If tencent are in the mix too then there's probably future with gaming in some form other than GTA music :pac:

WMG listed on Nasdaq and doing ok so maybe it'll go that way.

.... can someone explain warrants to me in one sentence?

Underground

Treppen wrote: »

I think it's a good outcome , ( if it happens).

.... can someone explain warrants to me in one sentence?

Basically behaves the same as an option on the underlying, usually a call option.

jams100

Underground wrote: »

Anyone long SNOW?

Looking to get into it but finding it hard to get my head around 100x price to sales valuation, even after the falloff in IPO price.

We use it in work.
Honestly I don't understand why people think it's so great.
The UI is one of the worst I've seen from a Tech company in a long, long time.

If I can't use a product then I can't invest in that product. (I might add that I work in tech and our entire team were scratching our heads trying to figure out how to use it, it really is bad). Maybe it was poor implementation on our side, idk.

They are just my thoughts, it's market cap also seems to be factoring much of the growth for the coming years anyway.

Cute Hoor

The 'market' certainly doesn't rate the PSTH deal

DutchYurt

Right I'm back - After ANVS I propped up the economy with enough take away pints and uber eats to support a small village. But the hangover I had from it could certainly have killed a small child if given to it. Thanks again Kilbor you beauty.

Anyway, anyone know why 4D Pharma is taking such a beating - threat of 3rd wave in the UK or? I really thought it would be where it was 6 months ago with a NASDAQ listing.

Looking at PSTH the air has most certainly been let out of SPACs.. I'm still in THBR and PIPP - thinking of cutting my loses and running at this stage.. not sure. Any SPAC experts out there?

crushproof

DutchYurt wrote: »

Right I'm back - After ANVS I propped up the economy with enough take away pints and uber eats to support a small village. But the hangover I had from it could certainly have killed a small child if given to it. Thanks again Kilbor you beauty.

Anyway, anyone know why 4D Pharma is taking such a beating - threat of 3rd wave in the UK or? I really thought it would be where it was 6 months ago with a NASDAQ listing.

Looking at PSTH the air has most certainly been let out of SPACs.. I'm still in THBR and PIPP - thinking of cutting my loses and running at this stage.. not sure. Any SPAC experts out there?

Thought you had retired to Caribbean tax haven!

Shedite27

Cute Hoor wrote: »

The 'market' certainly doesn't rate the PSTH deal

Certainly doesn't understand it anyway. Listening to CNBC this morning, 2 fairly intelligent chaps, Andrew Ross Sorkin and David Faber both tried and failed to grasp it. What hope do us mortals have.

From a pure valuation perspective, looks a little expensive for the stake in Universal, Tencent bought 20% 6 months ago for $37bn, PSTH paid $45bn.

As far as I see, the PSTH is still looking for a merger target, and this is like a bonus money (or dividend). Strange one to grasp

crushproof

Have had my eye on BBIG - Vinco Ventures Inc. Up 20% after an already decent run this week.

They seem to have their fingers in lots of pies such as r&d and digital marketing and are constantly on the lookout for companies to purchase.

Buy, Innovate, Grow is what they're all about so could be worth a small punt.

cc87

DutchYurt wrote: »

Right I'm back - After ANVS I propped up the economy with enough take away pints and uber eats to support a small village. But the hangover I had from it could certainly have killed a small child if given to it. Thanks again Kilbor you beauty.

Anyway, anyone know why 4D Pharma is taking such a beating - threat of 3rd wave in the UK or? I really thought it would be where it was 6 months ago with a NASDAQ listing.

Looking at PSTH the air has most certainly been let out of SPACs.. I'm still in THBR and PIPP - thinking of cutting my loses and running at this stage.. not sure. Any SPAC experts out there?

4D announced today they were cancelling their COVID drug trial while also stating their asthma trial has finished recruiting and expect data second half 2021. The COVID drug was never really a big thing for them but I expect there were some investors that jumped in when they heard COVID drug that jumped ship today