Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

DeanAustin

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

9/10 retail investors lose money in the stock market, many of them suffer losses of 80% of their capital. If you are relying on advice from strangers online then you will be one of the 9

I heard this is true but you wouldn't think it when you see people posting about their portfolios. Everyone claims to be making a mint.

Personally, I was down about 20% after a couple of disasters and am now slightly ahead (1%-2%) of break even after a couple of years of investing. The way I look at it, I've learned from some of my mistakes and managed to get better at investing, I'd earn nothing in a bank and I find watching the markets fascinating.

Hopefully I can make a few quid but there is also a chance the bottom falls out of it especially in the US. I've also learned that for every expert who tells you to buy a stock, you'll see another telling you to stay away. It's all educated guessing at best.

If you are spending your time "identifying smart people" on internet forums and just investing in what they like, why on earth would you not invest in an investment trust or actively managed fund where really "smart" people who are handsomely paid for their skills and have access to the best information will make those decisions for you? You will save time and do better.

massdebater

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

9/10 retail investors lose money in the stock market, many of them suffer losses of 80% of their capital. If you are relying on advice from strangers online then you will be one of the 9

That's a crazy stat! I wonder is that just from people selling after their first correction and never buying in again?

My first try with investing was in 2014/15, I bought shares in 4 companies, one got caught in an accounting scandal (Datalex) and tanked the price after doing really well initially. Scared me away from investing for 3/4 years, luckily not forever.

I wouldn't necessarily rely on advice about what to buy/sell but advice about managing risk, taking profits, the human behaviour side of investing, is usually good to pay attention to.

Shedite27

DeanAustin wrote: »

I heard this is true but you wouldn't think it when you see people posting about their portfolios. Everyone claims to be making a mint.

Personally, I was down about 20% after a couple of disasters and am now slightly ahead (1%-2%) of break even after a couple of years of investing. The way I look at it, I've learned from some of my mistakes and managed to get better at investing, I'd earn nothing in a bank and I find watching the markets fascinating.

Hopefully I can make a few quid but there is also a chance the bottom falls out of it especially in the US. I've also learned that for every expert who tells you to buy a stock, you'll see another telling you to stay away. It's all educated guessing at best.

Have a look at the Monthly Portfolio Update thread, there's a few of us posting our monthly performance. Everyone posts more about their winners than their losers, I don't think it's avoiding the truth or trying to save face, it's just more interesting to discuss.

Shedite27

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

9/10 retail investors lose money in the stock market, many of them suffer losses of 80% of their capital. If you are relying on advice from strangers online then you will be one of the 9

Where'd ya get that stat from? I've seen those type of figures on things like CFD's but I'd find it hard to believe it's that high for stocks.

N958GB

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

If you are spending your time "identifying smart people" on internet forums and just investing in what they like, why on earth would you not invest in an investment trust or actively managed fund where really "smart" people who are handsomely paid for their skills and have access to the best information will make those decisions for you? You will save time and do better.

I just started investing you?

N958GB

I just visited the oracle at Delphi and i am about to roll the dice.

Treppen

This is all getting a bit chinny reckon

pioneerpro

DeanAustin wrote: »

I heard this is true but you wouldn't think it when you see people posting about their portfolios. Everyone claims to be making a mint.

Personally, I was down about 20% after a couple of disasters and am now slightly ahead (1%-2%) of break even after a couple of years of investing.

Agree completely re: hindsight betting and only posting winners in many cases - you'll get that everywhere.

That said, if you're only barely beating inflation after a couple of years of investing, are you really investing? i.e. Would you have done better with an index-style ETF even with the tax implications?

I've kinda felt that if you're not beating something like the iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF after tax - regardless of gross roll up or whatever you choose to do to realise gains year on year - then should you consider picking individual stocks on your own recognizance to be 'investing'?


https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251881/ishares-msci-world-ucits-etf-inc-fund?switchLocale=y&siteEntryPassthrough=true

and a good breakdown of the onerous tax implications of ETFs

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/don-t-invest-in-an-etf-until-you-understand-the-tax-1.3421331

Chuckie_Egg

Shedite27 wrote: »

Where'd ya get that stat from? I've seen those type of figures on things like CFD's but I'd find it hard to believe it's that high for stocks.

Maybe I'm wrong but I do remember reading an article from Saxo bank on the subject where there 86% of their clients were in the red.
Then theirs the 90:90:90 which I'm sure everyone here knows.

SmokyMo

I read a study a while back that analyzed US hedge funds. It confirmed that majority of them will loose money and blow up eventually over long enough period but always collect fat management fee, so there is no skin in a game for them.
No wonder even Buffet instructed his fund to invest only in indexes after his passing.

cc87

cc87 wrote: »

Is anyone here in $MBIO, Mustang Bio.

Currently @3.30, recently given a PT of $11 with others in the 7-11 range.
Recent ATH of $5. MCAP of $290m

Pharma company with 9 different trials ongoing in the cell/gene therapy area.
Particular focus on cancer and rare genetic disorders.

CEO buying shares recently also

EDIT: They have a vote on share offering at the upcoming AGM. SP likely to drop before then

This jumped 9.5% on Friday after announcing they are presenting data tomorrow and Friday for some of their trials.

Nice graphic here of the ongoing trials
https://twitter.com/narmacnetworth/status/1401202831437225984?s=20

DeanAustin

pioneerpro wrote: »

Agree completely re: hindsight betting and only posting winners in many cases - you'll get that everywhere.

That said, if you're only barely beating inflation after a couple of years of investing, are you really investing? i.e. Would you have done better with an index-style ETF even with the tax implications?

I've kinda felt that if you're not beating something like the iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF after tax - regardless of gross roll up or whatever you choose to do to realise gains year on year - then should you consider picking individual stocks on your own recognizance to be 'investing'?


https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251881/ishares-msci-world-ucits-etf-inc-fund?switchLocale=y&siteEntryPassthrough=true

and a good breakdown of the onerous tax implications of ETFs

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/don-t-invest-in-an-etf-until-you-understand-the-tax-1.3421331

It's a fair point. To be honest, at this point, I'm enjoying learning about the markets, learning from the stupid mistakes I've made and it's given me an interest over the last year of boredom. If I'm still struggling in a couple of years, I'd look at getting an expert to do it for me.

TheFinanceGod

My Share Pick of 2021

Company: Ideanomics Inc. ($IDEX - NASDAQ)

What is it? : Small Cap EV infrastructure company with a vision to drive the sustainability transformation. The Company focuses on facilitating the adoption of commercial electric vehicles and developing next-generation financial services and Fintech products.

Why I'm bullish: With $360m cash-in-hand, they have a primary focus on commercial EV (bus fleets, dumpster vehicles etc). Their new WAVE charging technology is a literal game changer, especially with an increase in theft of charging station plugs (because they contain precious metals). Governing bodies in the states right now are literally gagging for their commercial fleets to be electrified because it looks good in the public eye, we've even seen this at home with Dublin Bus. Ideanomics has the possibility of providing the infrastructure to make that a reality. $7 PT from institutional analyst. Goldman Sachs regularly adding shares in their stake.

Negatives - It's small cap tech, and it has taken a beating recently. It's prone to negative movement around inflation talks etc (like we've seen this year with tech in general). The CEO Alf Poor is no stranger to dilution. It has a 52 Week range of 0.52-5.33.

News (Three Quick Headlines) -
Just installed their WAVE Wireless infrastructure around Washington State (see twitter)
Recently acquired zero emission vehicle manufacturer US Hybrid.
Ideanomics increased revenues by 8500% YoY, boasting $360m in cash.

(This is not financial advise, always do your own DD)

cronos

Annovis Bio is running again. Glad I bought 1% of my portfolio at 52$. Curious to see where this one goes. The offering was at 50$ so seemed like a good bet. I'm not going to sell no matter what price it hits, I'm long on it. I'll ride it to wherever it goes.

Kilboor

cronos wrote: »

Annovis Bio is running again. Glad I bought 1% of my portfolio at 52$. Curious to see where this one goes. The offering was at 50$ so seemed like a good bet. I'm not going to sell no matter what price it hits, I'm long on it. I'll ride it to wherever it goes.

Biogen Alzheimer's drug approved for sale. It's now set the bar for approval and that bar is low. It's efficacy is dubious at best.

Annovis is 3-4 times more effective from phase 2 trials.

cronos

Kilboor wrote: »

Biogen Alzheimer's drug approved for sale. It's now set the bar for approval and that bar is low. It's efficacy is dubious at best.

Annovis is 3-4 times more effective from phase 2 trials.

Super. I'm holding anyway. I like the idea of funding something like this. Even if I lost it all it would be something useful. But I'm looking at this over a number of years. I get it's a volatile stock.

cronos

PSTH seems to be recovering well also. Didn't take too long. Curious if that lasts though.

cc87

Bill Ackman on twitter saying anyone who owns PSTH will get rights to any future SPAC/SPARCS he's involved with.
TBH I don't see him doing many of them unless he looks at growth companies.

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1401376625401470977?s=20

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

Bill Ackman on twitter saying anyone who owns PSTH will get rights to any future SPAC/SPARCS he's involved with.
TBH I don't see him doing many of them unless he looks at growth companies.

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1401376625401470977?s=20

Personally I'd prefer a small number of good ones. I don't like this IPOA thru IPOZ stuff. Means you end up thinking is anyone even looking at yours, IPOD and IPOF in my case.

cc87

cronos wrote: »

Personally I'd prefer a small number of good ones. I don't like this IPOA thru IPOZ stuff. Means you end up thinking is anyone even looking at yours, IPOD and IPOF in my case.

Think Chamath has tainted his SPACs as well. Selling off quite early, feel like he was using one SPAC as leverage for his next.

cronos

cc87 wrote: »

Think Chamath has tainted his SPACs as well. Selling off quite early, feel like he was using one SPAC as leverage for his next.

I'm bullish on SOFI. Hard to know on valuation but seems like a decent bet.

IPOD and IPOF are both down about 5% for me, which isn't too bad but dead money. All my SPAC's near NAV are not moving at all. RTP, RTPZ, GSAH, HZON et all

cc87

cronos wrote: »

I'm bullish on SOFI. Hard to know on valuation but seems like a decent bet.

IPOD and IPOF are both down about 5% for me, which isn't too bad but dead money. All my SPAC's near NAV are not moving at all. RTP, RTPZ, GSAH, HZON et all

Same, AONE, NGAC, SFTW, NSH, FTOC all just floating around NAV for weeks now.

TSIA was down there but crept up over the last week and the ticker changed to LTCH today which boosted it.


On a different note, CLOV/GEVO/OCGN all up 15-20% today.

bish76

Offloaded LMND at BEP

Shedite27

bish76 wrote: »

Offloaded LMND at BEP

You held it through the red times and are selling now that it's making you money

Shedite27

cronos wrote: »

PSTH seems to be recovering well also. Didn't take too long. Curious if that lasts though.

Yeah the selloff was due to confusion really IMO. It was always going to recover once we began to understand it. I'm going to hold it I think, its a good deal. Can see it recovering to the high 20's

WTF...

While I've never shorted a stock in my life I was tempted bet against Biogen (BIIB) at the end of last week.....they're up 40% today!!
Shocking that the FDA have approved their Alzheimer's drug.
Lots of people in the scientific community not happy with the decision.

I'll stick to the day job!

Underground

Shedite27 wrote: »

You held it through the red times and are selling now that it's making you money

Yeah, each to their own I guess but after the roller-coaster ride I've been on with it after just getting back to BEP myself I'll be holding on to it now. Multibagger potential for sure.

jimmymack

Shedite27 wrote: »

Yeah the selloff was due to confusion really IMO. It was always going to recover once we began to understand it. I'm going to hold it I think, its a good deal. Can see it recovering to the high 20's

How would it work when it comes to selling, do you know? I have some PSTH shares but with the 3-in-1 deal I'm not sure how you'd calculate the disposal when it comes to cashing them in. I think it's a good deal too and would definitely hold on to them for a few years but the way they seem to be splitting them between UMG, SPARC and so on has me a bit confused definitely something I need to sit down and figure out soon!

cronos

Shedite27 wrote: »

Yeah the selloff was due to confusion really IMO. It was always going to recover once we began to understand it. I'm going to hold it I think, its a good deal. Can see it recovering to the high 20's

I'm holding. Even averaged down a little when it was low 22's. I think it has Bill's full focus or at least a good bit. Thus I'm happy for it to be 5% of my portfolio. Think someone here had it as their full portfolio, that takes balls I don't have.