Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117977584#Comment_117977584

" If you can keep your head when all about you

Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, ........"

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117977584#Comment_117977584

Cheers!

I'm being greedy when others are fearful ;)

massdebater

Are you doubling down on ones you already own that have dropped or going for new ones that have fallen?

Pussyhands

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117977648#Comment_117977648

Doubling down on BABA. I have 73 shares @ average of 219

Timmaay

https://twitter.com/_mm85/status/1444984851342503937?s=20

Not doubling down on China stocks, Heavily exposed as is, however at least I was in nice and early on the likes of NIO, NIU etc.

banie01

Another Chinese property developer was due to repay Bond principle of $205m due yesterday.

https://www.reuters.com/business/chinese-developer-fantasia-misses-repayment-deadline-2021-10-04/

That's in addition to missing a local payment of $108m due the same day. This is an example of the debt leveraging at play in China currently.

Fantasia had a market cap of @ $415m yet has total debt repayments due between now and the end of FY22 of over $3billion! Now with total known liabilities of over $13billion that's a 30.1 debt ratio, tbh if a developer goes over 4.1? It's a risky play IMO. I wonder how many of the Chinese players are anywhere near that low a ratio?

These missed payments and impending default need to be considered in the overall context of current Chinese property connected debt IMO.

Aswell as Evergrande and it's issues, Chinese Municipalities are carrying a combined $8.2trillion dollars of bond debt. Debt that is highly reliant upon property development levy and subsequent property charges and tax to continue financing.

Never mind Dominoes falling, the more I read on Chinese property related debts are a pyramid scheme! The leveraging and dependence at play is staggering.

Easten

Just look at the state of them properties. Listen to the two guys talk about the whole setup, it's pure madness X 100

https://youtu.be/lKbLB_T-IjY

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117978381#Comment_117978381

The next developer in the queue to default is Sinic - bond repayment due on 18th Oct is unlikely.

S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating on Sinic, saying it had run into a "severe liquidity problem and its debt-servicing ability has almost been depleted".

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-property-sector-woes-deepen-markets-await-evergrande-deal-2021-10-05/

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117983040#Comment_117983040

Thanks for the article Bob. The sheer volume and widespread impact of the Chinese credit crunch is huge and there is far more to come IMO. The debt to equity ratios in many are off the charts and taking Evergrande at 44:1, Fantasia at 30:1 and Sinic at 40:1 illustrate nicely my concerns re: China.

The Municipality's are dependent upon development and levies to fund their own debt. The local govt debt is @$8.2trillion and those debts being repaid are predicated upon their property market staying stable and GDP continuing at 6%+ per annum.

The $300billion at Evergrande isn't the systemic risk, the local government bond debt reliant upon property development is. Evergrande is the rash, the Local Govt bonds the meningitis that follows that rash.

patsy_mccabe

I just bought some Alibaba (BABA) at $143.70. I see Charlie Munger added about 135,000 shares to the Daily Journal Corp at $148.05.

DATAROMA Stock Activity History

jams100

Bought More Associated British Foods (ABF) and Volkswagon (Vow3) today. Both long term plays, 5 yrs+ for me.

Wouldn't be surprised if ABF started a share buyback soon with current share price, they have their year ending earnings in early Nov. Also expect return of dividend in 2022 and possibly a small final dividend for this year. Good long term hold at current price imo

littlevillage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117986287#Comment_117986287

Good calls Jams 👍

I'm hold VW, think they are a winner long term....although my BEP is €207!! ... (soo currently underwater by about -8%)

ABF should be a winner too.. but timing the bottom is the trick there, as the SP seems to be in a continuous downwards slide for the last six months or so...

Pussyhands

Awh lads I'm sickened. Sent 4k from bank to DeGiro yesterday evening to buy BABA today and it's gone up nearly 10% :(

patsy_mccabe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117989243#Comment_117989243

I know. I never seen a day's gain like today. My other stocks are up too.

banie01

Most on here are probably sick to death of China stance at this stage, but there's more 😂

Now just to make my own position clear on this thesis. I pulled out of most of my positions both crypto and equity, apart from 3 high risk positions that are already in the green and are being let ride or die at this point 😉

Moving to cash when I did has had a significant opportunity cost. I was early and even 3 weeks would have added a lot to the cash balance, but c'est la vie. I am fairly certain that a crunch is imminent and would rather hold the profit I have for that, than be late.

The trends in China are bearish and it can be demonstrated that even pre Evergrande, that the Bear was in play and has only accelerated on the property woes.

Interesting post over in r/Superstonk that pulls together a lot of info and makes a strong case for the Chinese Bear accelerating further. Remember one thing above else in China. Xi is no friend of foreign investors and their domestic prosperity is paramount.

If China can't hold 6% GDP growth, I can't see there being anything other than a huge and immediate credit crunch around foreign denominated debt.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q3uukg/the_global_sell_off_has_started_in_china_china_is/

banie01

Some more worrying news on Chinese Financial services and property. These are the type of collapse and contagion that IMO are going to snowball in China if the CCP don't come up with a better plan than their current containment strategy.

https://m.soundofhope.org/post/552744

Ping An Bank, a subsidiary of Ping An insurance seems to be in trouble. Trouble that stems from an investment in a Property Developer called Blu-ray and that Company's subsequent collapse.

Seeing very little western news on this and WeChat isn't always the most reliable but?

It does further highlight serious ongoing issues internally both in monetary and economic risk IMO.

https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1446283536097415172?t=1iPBUxCM2LPFucomTI5bog&s=19

The CCP seem to be trying to tightly control the impact of losses and rein in any protest before it kicks off. There is only so long they can keep fighting fires IMO.

https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/china-evergrande-10082021100549.html

EDITED

To add a better English language story on the Ping An Bank issue and protests.

https://www.trustnodes.com/2021/10/09/protests-break-out-at-ping-an-bank

transylman

https://twitter.com/marketplunger1/status/1446992428427264001?s=20

Pussyhands

BABA up to 170 in Pre Market (+5.75%)

Put another 2k in Friday and may just put another 2k in today.

bob mcbob

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/117997609#Comment_117997609

Apparently it is not just property funds - the economist last week had some articles on it and as you say the municipal authorities are in bad shape - pretty much all their funds come from property development.

Also the BRI is also heavily indebted. Behind a paywall but this shows the scale of the debt

https://www.economist.com/asia/a-new-report-digs-into-the-labyrinthine-nature-of-chinas-loans/21805124

The last sentence in this article really hit me though - the $3.6billion debt to build the Laos to China railway has nothing to do with the Laos government. This was a loan from the Chinese government to a Chinese SOE to build a railway in Laos. So any default is a purely Chinese affair.

cronos

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118003711#Comment_118003711

Disappointed I sold out for a tax loss at the low's but I wonder what's changed the tide here. It got up to 170's previously and dropped back harder. Might indeed be all up from here though.

VonLuck

The Hut Group dropped by about 35% yesterday and there doesn't seem to be an explanation for it. May be time to jump on board when it's at a big discount.

Pablo_Flox

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118012377#Comment_118012377

Looks like it is already on the road to recovery!

retalivity

Bought more ASOS shares this morn, the CEO announced he was leaving so shares plummeted. Down 60% in about 6 months, but still a strong hold for me to rebound.

VonLuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118012813#Comment_118012813

What positives are you seeing for ASOS in the future?

Atlantic Dawn

Tata Motors having a nice run the last week their EV plans are looking good.

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015405#Comment_118015405

They're already ahead of the game with online sales and home delivery/returns, increasing market share with the the high street brands closing down and them purchasing the likes of topshop at knockdown prices, its a company I don't see going away for a while, it may not go to the moon but I think there's plenty of scope for it to get back towards the £50 price it was 6 months ago.

Timmaay

After "buying the dip" with crispr the whole way from 186$ down lol, I managed to get in at 93 at the open today and finally a bounce back to 98. Lets hope my persistence will pay off haha, got my average down to 137 at least. 2021 dam you lol.

banie01

I sold out of a PSLV position at open and bought some $CHWY at $62 as a long.

I'm trawling some stocks now to make a risky play and the places I looked at in March have so fundamentally changed that I have a hell of a lot of reading ahead of me 😂

6 months ago, I'd have looked to Chinese e-learning and sought some consumer exposure there via EV. Now a couple of the EV stocks are still a good play IMO but the tutor/gaming industry in China has been decimated.

I may go and start reading up on India, Tata and defence related companies there may well be a long play. Modi's move to "Made in India" means there will be plenty of cash sloshing around there IMO.

I might need a brown paper bag for Monday...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ca.movies.yahoo.com/amphtml/edesa-stock-newest-canadian-meme-143000876.html

The above article is well written. It grabs the attention of the GME/AMC hoard that pile in (god love them), but also highlights this actually is no meme stock, but a company with a serious pipeline.

There's a good chance its already too late for shorts to cover at less than stellar levels Monday.

Here's hoping!

TheFinanceGod

Picked up some GS upon open on Friday.

Needed to rotate away from growth stocks and purchase more "safe" plays. This was my choice. The Wall Street powerhouse is already the Dow's best performer of 2021, and their earnings were A1 in correlation. 88% YoY revenue increase in Investment Banking Revenues.

I'm confident acquisition financing will remain high into the future. This, along with their high performing market diversifications, will continue to drive profits into any market.

Buy in at $400, and will continue to dollar cost average up/down until GS makes close to 20% of my portfolio.